The Disunited Kingdom: A Scottish Independence TL

[Murica1776]

Just a TL idea I decided to start tinkering with after making this post in the EEUSG thread:

An Examination of Extra-Universal Systems of Government

I've been thinking about making some sort of eco-corporarte nation, if that makes any sense. What basically happens is that something similar to the Morgenthau Plan forces a nation to deindustrialize. Foreign companies then take an interest to the new agarian country and proceed to transform it...

www.alternatehistory.com

Without further adieu, here's the first chapter. Hopefully it's somewhat plausible and very enjoyable! Idk how much I will write, but I'll see where the idea goes

Chapter 1: The Flower of Scotland

Supporters of Scottish Independence rally in Glasgow (2014)
​

CNN BREAKING NEWS ALERT:

September 18th, 2014

Shocking news out of Scotland today, as a once in a generation referendum on the creation of an independent Scotland has won by a narrow 52-48 margin. Prime Minister David Cameron has announced that Westminster will honor the results of the referendum, and begin the process of decoupling Scotland from the United Kingdom. By all accounts, this has set Westminster in a spiral, as anonymous source reported "The referendum was a showpiece to shut up the SNP. We didn't think the bloody lunatics would actually do it!" An emergency committee has been established in Parliament to begin formulating a strategy to allow Scotland "full separation at the earliest opportune moment." The question on many people's lips is: Why?

Scotland was long an independent Kingdom, before being conquered by England. In 1603, King James VI united England, Scotland, and Ireland under his rule. In 1707, the Act of Union was passed, creating a formal political bond between Scotland and England. Ireland was added in 1801 under a separate act. Despite being unified to England by law, Scotland has long maintained its heritage, including efforts to preserve their native Gaelic language. Many in Scotland have often felt subjugated by the English, and believed that the government in London didn't have their best interests in mind. Clearly those feelings have come to a head.

The surprise result has sent shockwaves across the world. Representatives from the EU have begun planning for an anticipated Scottish application to the Union, even as the organization as a whole seems ambiguous and perhaps confused. President Obama has issued an official statement saying "While we applaud the respect for democracy and self-determination shown during this process, my Administration and myself can't help but view this partial breakup of the United Kingdom as profoundly sad. Nonetheless, we look forward to working with the newly independent Scottish state, and wish the Scottish people only good luck." Russia's President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of hypocrisy in accepting the Scottish referendum as legitimate while denying the legitimacy of the referendum in Crimea, which is widely believed to have been directly influenced by Moscow. President Putin went on to claim "Scotland is a natural part of the United Kingdom, just as Crimea is a natural part of Russia."

With the referendum passed, the future is uncertain. The British pound has declined steeply, and the descent is expected to continue for quite some time. In off hours trading, a wide variety of stocks in Britain have also started to lose value, and the British government is alleged to be "seriously contemplating" suspending weekday trading tomorrow. Many analysts fear this could potentially spark another global downturn, just as the economy seemed like it was turning the corner. The instability might not be over either. In Wales, the nationalist party Plaid Cymru is calling for a referendum, with the party's official statement arguing "Wales can no longer afford to remain aboard the sinking ship that is the United Kingdom." Whatever the future holds, it's uncertain for sure.

Prime Minister Cameron announces that his government will begin the process of separating Scotland from the UK.

Welsh nationalists rally in Cardiff

In London, Nigel Farage's UKIP holds a pro-Union rally (if you ignore the odd Brexit sign)​

 

[broken-arrow]

Subbed.

Wouldn’t Putin support Scottish independence as it weakens a strong NATO member and also it could remove British nuclear subs from the Cylde leaving the GIUK gap more exposed? But I can also see him woth the comment about the Crimean referendum result

Also interested to see Spain’s And the EUs response

 

[Murica1776]

Subbed.

Wouldn’t Putin support Scottish independence as it weakens a strong NATO member and also it could remove British nuclear subs from the Cylde leaving the GIUK gap more exposed? But I can also see him woth the comment about the Crimean referendum result

Also interested to see Spain’s And the EUs response

I imagine Putin's response as having more to do with stirring shit up. Can't have Britain/former Britain going after you if they're at each other's throats. Which in turn distracts the West. He'll be playing a prominent role.

That's about to be more thoroughly covered. Spain will be an interesting one for sure.

 

[Northstar]

Looks interesting, however; be aware that once you get into 2020 you could be getting into "current politics" territory and I think that's frowned upon.

Regarding the Putin response: I think it's fine and probably realistic. Putin can say one thing and think another thing. It's not like he's making comment as to whether he thinks it's good or bad for Russia anyway.

Northstar

 

[Murica1776]

Looks interesting, however; be aware that once you get into 2020 you could be getting into "current politics" territory and I think that's frowned upon.

Regarding the Putin response: I think it's fine and probably realistic. Putin can say one thing and think another thing. It's not like he's making comment as to whether he thinks it's goof or bad for Russia anyway.

Northstar

I'm hoping that given that the POD is over half a decade ago, enough things will change to keep that from occurring. However, I'll make sure to keep that in mind.

 

[jammci]

Interesting, was tempted to do a TL on this myself, but will sub to this one instead

 

[Murica1776]

Chapter 2: Discord and Downturn

Alex Salmond, head of the SNP, denouncing Westminster's plans for discharging the national debt (2014)

Markets Tumble as Scottish Independence Talks Stall
-CNBC Chryon, October 25, 2014

GBP-USD Plummets to 1.123, Compared to Pre-Referendum Value of 1.571
-Wall Street Journal, November 2nd, 2014

As Union Weakens, Support for Welsh Independence Soars to 30%
-Sky News, November 18th, 2014

"Scotland Effect" Blamed for Catalan Independence Riots
-France 24, December 1st, 2014
​

One Month From Scottish Referendum, Little Action but Lots of Blame

Printed in New York Times, October 14th, 2014

Exactly one month ago today, the people of Scotland voted for their independence in a historic referendum. At the time, the pubs of that ancient land were filled with jovial revelers, throwing back endless pints and singing patriotic tunes like Scotland the Brave. Like all booze-soaked parties, it had to come to an end, and like all but the luckiest revelers, the Scots have gotten a nasty hangover. For the ensuing month has been nothing short of gridlock, while rhetoric has reached the kind of vitriol normally saved for Reality TV and divorce courts.

The Scottish and British agree that Scotland should be independent. They disagree on just about everything else. Among the most pressing issues are those that relate to currency and the national debt. Westminster wants Scotland to accept the British pound as their currency, driven in no small part by a desire to shore up the currency's crumbling value. The Scots are far more keen on accepting the Euro, and most anti-pound advocates have expressed fears that London could use its control of the currency to punish Scotland. The British fear that a unilateral adoption of the Euro by Scotland would permanently degrade both the currency and the British economy, with some hard-right ideologues going so far as to say that it would eventually force Britain to become "a Euro using appendage of Brussels."

If the currency issue has both sides heated, the national debt debate has set them to boiling. Both sides agree that Scotland should shoulder some of the British national debt. The billion dollar question is how much. The Scots want to accept 8.3% of the debt, or roughly $220 billion, since Scotland's population was roughly 8.3% of the British population. Furthermore, they want a graduated payment plan and financial assistance. Westminster claims that since Scotland is one of the four constituent nations of the former United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, it ought to shoulder 25% of the national debt. That would leave Scotland, a nation whose GDP was $139 billion last year, with a debt of around $660 billion. To say that the Scots are unenthused by this prospect would be an understatement. Alex Salmond, head of the Scottish Nationalist Party, described the terms as "Westminster trying to bend Scotland over a barrel and take advantage of her like a common prostitute" in a somewhat uncharacteristic fit of pique. On the British side, the ever-controversial Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, told the press "Mr. Salmond's characterization of these terms is utterly absurd. This is a fair discharge of the national debt. Furthermore, the sexual imagery is patently ridiculous and offensive. No right-minded Englishman would ever want to bend a Scot over a barrel in that manner, they're a race of cack-handed baboons."

Aside from economic matters, the future of Scottish security is also in jeopardy. Edinburgh has been ambiguous about whether or not it will join NATO, although it's been widely reported that the US is pushing for them to join. Furthermore, the prospect of any kind of security arrangement with Britain has been brought into question. Another issue complicating matters is what exactly ought to be done about the British nuclear weapons and assorted infrastructure on Scottish soil. The prospect of creating a military has SNP officials scrambling, as Scotland has never had to draft its own national defense plan. With all these considerations and more, it appears talks could drag on for months.

Scotland's Betrayal of Britain Won't Be Forgotten!
-Daily Express Headline, October 2nd, 2014

English Nationalists Burn Portrait of St. Andrew
-The Guardian, December 17th, 2014

Petition to Refer to UK as "The English Empire" in Scottish Textbooks Gains 13,000 Signatures in 1 Day
-RT Online, November 16th, 2014

BBC's Survival in Jeopardy Due to Scotland Licence Fee Row
-Sky News, October 30th, 2014

​

OP ED: The Scotland Effect Threatens The West's Survival

Printed in The Washington Post, December 9th, 2014

Written by: José Manuel García-Margallo y Marfil, Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs

All views expressed in this Op Ed are solely those of the writer, not necessarily of The Washington Post

Around the world, a new phrase has been coined to discuss a recent upsurge in nationalist sentiment: the Scotland Effect. Indeed, it would seem that the recent success of Scottish independence has emboldened like-minded movements across the world. If this were inspiring millions crushed by imperialism and oppression, like your own American Revolution, that would be one thing. However, Scotland's nationalism is only encouraging the rise of similar strains of ethnic chauvinism across Europe.

Imagine a world where Belgium is split in twain between the Flemish and the French speakers. A world where Brittany and Corsica have broken free from France. A world where Italy has fractured into multiple constituent pieces. Where ancient rivalries flare in the Balkans due to inflamed nationalism. Soon, we might not have to. From Serbia to my own beloved Spain, ethnic nationalists of varying kinds have felt emboldened. This is troublesome, and could lead Europe down a dark path. The EU might crumble. A renewed war in the Balkans could break out. Massive riots are already breaking out, look at Catalonia in my own country. Even worse, the Scotland Effect would irreparably damage Europe. Europe is already fairly divided. If the continent were to become even more divided, and perhaps angrier and less prosperous, our influence would further decline and various parts of the continent could become vulnerable to Russian aggression. As Crimea so starkly reminded us, the Bear still looms large over Europe.

This isn't just a European issue: it's an American one as well. A Europe that is poorer, more divided, and surlier is one that will be increasingly difficult for you to work with, and could potentially make the alliance untenable. All of your nation's hard work in former Yugoslavia could disappear overnight beneath another wave of ethnic conflict. If a divided Europe allows Russia to swallow up more land, it will have emboldened America and the West's worst rival, one that is still a large, nuclear power. To prevent this nightmare from happening, the West must act decisively to suppress these empowered ethnic exceptionalists. From Catalonia to Poland, those who would see Europe divided into a thousand little ethnic enclaves must be stopped. The survival of the West depends on it.

 

[Fenrisúlfr]

Scotland would not adopt the Euro and any party that proposed it in Scotland post Euro crisis would be as popular as a cup of cold sick.

In addition I think the debate over debt would be more around whether Scotland has to take any share of the debt at all as a newly independent nation.

See the YouTube link below for more details.

 

[RMcD94]

Scotland was long an independent Kingdom, before being conquered by England. In 1603, King James VI united England, Scotland, and Ireland under his rule. In 1707, the Act of Union was passed, creating a formal political bond between Scotland and England. Ireland was added in 1801 under a separate act. Despite being unified to England by law, Scotland has long maintained its heritage, including efforts to preserve their native Gaelic language. Many in Scotland have often felt subjugated by the English, and believed that the government in London didn't have their best interests in mind. Clearly those feelings have come to a head.

Scotland was not conquered by the English that led to the UK. This paragraph seems misleading. Also using "united" to me does not exactly mesh with "inherited".

Scotland was independent, then it was conquered by the English (a few times), then it was independent, then the Scottish monarchy was put on the throne of England (with Ireland) after they had no heirs.

English developed as much in the lowlands of Scotland as it did in Northumbria and indeed Gaelic never was spoken universally across modern Scotland. There's also Scots the Germanic language as well as the Celtic language of Gaelic. Remember that Gaelic was only introduced in the 1st millenium so it's not like it is some ancient language compared to English. Gaelic was on its out long before British unification, as early as 1100, and really by the mid-millenium it was retreating to the Highlands. Plus you've got the Norse speakers of Shetland and Orkneys.

https://imgur.com/rergayh

Scotland would not adopt the Euro and any party that proposed it in Scotland post Euro crisis would be as popular as a cup of cold sick.

In addition I think the debate over debt would be more around whether Scotland has to take any share of the debt at all as a newly independent nation.

See the YouTube link below for more details.

If it's to keep a proportional share of debt will it keep proportional control of the UK UN seat or other shared assets, 10% of the navy and military, I doubt Scotland would even want that?

OTL the Velvet divorce resulted in a 2:1 ratio exactly in line with population

 

[Sarthak]

Cue massive brain drain from Scotland into England.
Cue massive fleeing of credit companies from the north to the south.

Also case in point, England has more seperatism according to polls in the UK than wales. I doubt Wales would take a bid for freedom with that considered

 

[broken-arrow]

I wonder how this will effect the 2015 election. I assume independence won’t be completed by then so Scotland will still take part. the SNP would still gain seats but maybe not as much as it did if negotiations are going badly.

 

[Along the bay]

I wonder how this will effect the 2015 election. I assume independence won’t be completed by then so Scotland will still take part. the SNP would still gain seats but maybe not as much as it did if negotiations are going badly.

Perhaps the SNP will do what Sinn Fein did and refuse to turn up.

 

[Murica1776]

Scotland would not adopt the Euro and any party that proposed it in Scotland post Euro crisis would be as popular as a cup of cold sick.

In addition I think the debate over debt would be more around whether Scotland has to take any share of the debt at all as a newly independent nation.

See the YouTube link below for more details.

I'll note this, thanks for the info

Scotland was not conquered by the English that led to the UK. This paragraph seems misleading. Also using "united" to me does not exactly mesh with "inherited".

Scotland was independent, then it was conquered by the English (a few times), then it was independent, then the Scottish monarchy was put on the throne of England (with Ireland) after they had no heirs.

English developed as much in the lowlands of Scotland as it did in Northumbria and indeed Gaelic never was spoken universally across modern Scotland. There's also Scots the Germanic language as well as the Celtic language of Gaelic. Remember that Gaelic was only introduced in the 1st millenium so it's not like it is some ancient language compared to English. Gaelic was on its out long before British unification, as early as 1100, and really by the mid-millenium it was retreating to the Highlands. Plus you've got the Norse speakers of Shetland and Orkneys.

https://imgur.com/rergayh

If it's to keep a proportional share of debt will it keep proportional control of the UK UN seat or other shared assets, 10% of the navy and military, I doubt Scotland would even want that?

OTL the Velvet divorce resulted in a 2:1 ratio exactly in line with population

I know that the situation was more complicated, but knowing CNN and their news alerts, I drastically simplified it for stylistic reasons. It's not accurate history, but it's absolutely something I could see being put in an article.

I think I'm going to rewrite the debt debate a bit.

 

[Ficboy]

Chapter 2: Discord and Downturn

Alex Salmond, head of the SNP, denouncing Westminster's plans for discharging the national debt (2014)

Markets Tumble as Scottish Independence Talks Stall
-CNBC Chryon, October 25, 2014

GBP-USD Plummets to 1.123, Compared to Pre-Referendum Value of 1.571
-Wall Street Journal, November 2nd, 2014

As Union Weakens, Support for Welsh Independence Soars to 30%
-Sky News, November 18th, 2014

"Scotland Effect" Blamed for Catalan Independence Riots
-France 24, December 1st, 2014
​

One Month From Scottish Referendum, Little Action but Lots of Blame

Printed in New York Times, October 14th, 2014

Exactly one month ago today, the people of Scotland voted for their independence in a historic referendum. At the time, the pubs of that ancient land were filled with jovial revelers, throwing back endless pints and singing patriotic tunes like Scotland the Brave. Like all booze-soaked parties, it had to come to an end, and like all but the luckiest revelers, the Scots have gotten a nasty hangover. For the ensuing month has been nothing short of gridlock, while rhetoric has reached the kind of vitriol normally saved for Reality TV and divorce courts.

The Scottish and British agree that Scotland should be independent. They disagree on just about everything else. Among the most pressing issues are those that relate to currency and the national debt. Westminster wants Scotland to accept the British pound as their currency, driven in no small part by a desire to shore up the currency's crumbling value. The Scots are far more keen on accepting the Euro, and most anti-pound advocates have expressed fears that London could use its control of the currency to punish Scotland. The British fear that a unilateral adoption of the Euro by Scotland would permanently degrade both the currency and the British economy, with some hard-right ideologues going so far as to say that it would eventually force Britain to become "a Euro using appendage of Brussels."

If the currency issue has both sides heated, the national debt debate has set them to boiling. Both sides agree that Scotland should shoulder some of the British national debt. The billion dollar question is how much. The Scots want to accept 8.3% of the debt, or roughly $220 billion, since Scotland's population was roughly 8.3% of the British population. Furthermore, they want a graduated payment plan and financial assistance. Westminster claims that since Scotland is one of the four constituent nations of the former United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, it ought to shoulder 25% of the national debt. That would leave Scotland, a nation whose GDP was $139 billion last year, with a debt of around $660 billion. To say that the Scots are unenthused by this prospect would be an understatement. Alex Salmond, head of the Scottish Nationalist Party, described the terms as "Westminster trying to bend Scotland over a barrel and take advantage of her like a common prostitute" in a somewhat uncharacteristic fit of pique. On the British side, the ever-controversial Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, told the press "Mr. Salmond's characterization of these terms is utterly absurd. This is a fair discharge of the national debt. Furthermore, the sexual imagery is patently ridiculous and offensive. No right-minded Englishman would ever want to bend a Scot over a barrel in that manner, they're a race of cack-handed baboons."

Aside from economic matters, the future of Scottish security is also in jeopardy. Edinburgh has been ambiguous about whether or not it will join NATO, although it's been widely reported that the US is pushing for them to join. Furthermore, the prospect of any kind of security arrangement with Britain has been brought into question. Another issue complicating matters is what exactly ought to be done about the British nuclear weapons and assorted infrastructure on Scottish soil. The prospect of creating a military has SNP officials scrambling, as Scotland has never had to draft its own national defense plan. With all these considerations and more, it appears talks could drag on for months.

Scotland's Betrayal of Britain Won't Be Forgotten!
-Daily Express Headline, October 2nd, 2014

English Nationalists Burn Portrait of St. Andrew
-The Guardian, December 17th, 2014

Petition to Refer to UK as "The English Empire" in Scottish Textbooks Gains 13,000 Signatures in 1 Day
-RT Online, November 16th, 2014

BBC's Survival in Jeopardy Due to Scotland Licence Fee Row
-Sky News, October 30th, 2014

​

OP ED: The Scotland Effect Threatens The West's Survival

Printed in The Washington Post, December 9th, 2014

Written by: José Manuel García-Margallo y Marfil, Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs

All views expressed in this Op Ed are solely those of the writer, not necessarily of The Washington Post

Around the world, a new phrase has been coined to discuss a recent upsurge in nationalist sentiment: the Scotland Effect. Indeed, it would seem that the recent success of Scottish independence has emboldened like-minded movements across the world. If this were inspiring millions crushed by imperialism and oppression, like your own American Revolution, that would be one thing. However, Scotland's nationalism is only encouraging the rise of similar strains of ethnic chauvinism across Europe.

Imagine a world where Belgium is split in twain between the Flemish and the French speakers. A world where Brittany and Corsica have broken free from France. A world where Italy has fractured into multiple constituent pieces. Where ancient rivalries flare in the Balkans due to inflamed nationalism. Soon, we might not have to. From Serbia to my own beloved Spain, ethnic nationalists of varying kinds have felt emboldened. This is troublesome, and could lead Europe down a dark path. The EU might crumble. A renewed war in the Balkans could break out. Massive riots are already breaking out, look at Catalonia in my own country. Even worse, the Scotland Effect would irreparably damage Europe. Europe is already fairly divided. If the continent were to become even more divided, and perhaps angrier and less prosperous, our influence would further decline and various parts of the continent could become vulnerable to Russian aggression. As Crimea so starkly reminded us, the Bear still looms large over Europe.

This isn't just a European issue: it's an American one as well. A Europe that is poorer, more divided, and surlier is one that will be increasingly difficult for you to work with, and could potentially make the alliance untenable. All of your nation's hard work in former Yugoslavia could disappear overnight beneath another wave of ethnic conflict. If a divided Europe allows Russia to swallow up more land, it will have emboldened America and the West's worst rival, one that is still a large, nuclear power. To prevent this nightmare from happening, the West must act decisively to suppress these empowered ethnic exceptionalists. From Catalonia to Poland, those who would see Europe divided into a thousand little ethnic enclaves must be stopped. The survival of the West depends on it.

Since the Scotland Effect is stated to be an American issue as much as it is an European issue we might see secessionist movements in Texas, California and Dixie become more prominent than in OTL. There were a lot of petitions for secession after Barack Obama was reelected President of the United States in 2012. Granted they might not reach to the extent of those seen in Europe they could make a substantial impact in the politics of America.

 

[Murica1776]

Since the Scotland Effect is stated to be an American issue as much as it is an European issue we might see secessionist movements in Texas, California and Dixie become more prominent than in OTL. There were a lot of petitions for secession after Barack Obama was reelected President of the United States in 2012. Granted they might not reach to the extent of those seen in Europe they could make a substantial impact in the politics of America.

That's not quite what the foreign minister meant when he said that the Scotland Effect was also an American issue. Patriotism is a much stronger force here, so barring a legitimate catastrophe I find secession movements unlikely. Instead, what he meant was "The Scotland Effect is going to make Europe weaker, poorer, and more divided, which will make them a more difficult ally to deal with, if not make them completely worthless."

 

[Ficboy]

That's not quite what the foreign minister meant when he said that the Scotland Effect was also an American issue. Patriotism is a much stronger force here, so barring a legitimate catastrophe I find secession movements unlikely. Instead, what he meant was "The Scotland Effect is going to make Europe weaker, poorer, and more divided, which will make them a more difficult ally to deal with, if not make them completely worthless."

But they will jump on the trend of the Scotland Effect as much as they can regardless if it is successful or not.

 

[Murica1776]

But they will jump on the trent of the Scotland Effect as much as they can regardless if it is successful or not.

That's true, but you're vastly overestimating the power of secessionist groups. Even in all our recent fits of partisan pique, secession has always been a fringe idea that would be more likely to get you laughed at or derided than given power. Europe is in a totally different boat in that regard.

 

[Ficboy]

That's true, but you're vastly overestimating the power of secessionist groups. Even in all our recent fits of partisan pique, secession has always been a fringe idea that would be more likely to get you laughed at or derided than given power. Europe is in a totally different boat in that regard.

Considering of course the Civil War between the North and the South and the Electoral College which prevents any secessionist third parties from gaining power even in their home regions.

 

[Murica1776]

I'm going to edit Chapter 2 tonight to alter the debt debate. Regardless, here's another somewhat alliterative chapter title:

Chapter 3: Recession and Rage

Members of the Newcastle based "British Union League" clash with Scottish Nationalists in Glasgow (2015)

Better off Together: A Plea for a Second Referendum
-Op Ed in The Times, January 2nd, 2015

American Tourist Attacked, Hospitalized, in Glasgow After Confusing Scotland and Britain
-Fox News, February 8th, 2015

As Unrest Grows, GBP-USD Plunges to 0.931
-Bloomberg News Chyron, March 17th, 2015

Support for Welsh Independence Climbs to Record High 42%
-BBC Headline, April 3rd, 2015

5 Dead, 19 Injured in Parliament Square Riot Between Scottish Nationalists and British Unionists
-Washington Post, February 13th, 2015
​

Scotland's Nationalist Dream Has Turned Into an International Nightmare

Originally printed in the LA Times, April 19th, 2015

On September 14th, 2014, Scotland voted for independence. At the time, the Scottish people had visions of a bright and glorious future. The events of the past few months have dampened such utopianism. If anything, one could argue that the entire world, not just Britain, has been worse off for the Scottish vote. Let's evaluate the damage.

In Britain, aside from continuing deadlock over debt, currency, and defense issues, the rhetoric from the Scottish and English sides has hopped right over dogwhistle and straight into bigotry. In Scotland, phrases such as "barbaric imperialists" have become common descriptions of the English and SNP official/MSP John Swinney was recently forced to walk back comments saying "Before the English thrust themselves upon India and Africa, they perfected their colonialist brutality here in Scotland," which drew widespread condemnation. Violence is becoming a real issue in Scotland, as the case of Florida man John Garibaldi, who was nearly killed for a simple slip of the tongue, can attest. In both Scotland and England, groups of soccer hooligans known as "firms" have begun attacking each other, as well as fans who just happen to be from the wrong side of the border. English rhetoric is no better, with noted Conservative hardliner Jacob Rees-Mogg summing up the attitudes of an increasingly large portion of the population "The Scots may well be the most ungrateful people on Earth. If it weren't for us, they'd be dealing with the 500th blood feud between Clan Armstrong and Clan MacJock." Jock, a slur for Scottish people, has come increasingly in vogue since the referendum, and there have been disturbing reports of English schoolchildren inventing a game called "Knock a Jock," where children of Scottish descent are targeted for physical attack.

Abroad, the so-called Scotland Effect has wrought havoc, as ethnic nationalists the world over have been emboldened. In France, Breton nationalists have begun to demonstrate in force, and there have been clashes with police. Spain has been thrust into crisis, as escalating violence from Catalonian nationalists prompted the government to declare martial law in the province, while elsewhere in the country the reaction to Catalonian nationalism has been a flare up in Francoism, Spain's Fascist ideology formulated by former dictator Francisco Franco. Italy has seen nationalists in both the North and Sicily act out as well, although thankfully violence has mostly been avoided. In Turkey, paranoia over the Scotland Effect has seen a dramatic increase in the persecution of Kurds. As far away as India and China, Kashmiri radicals and nationalists in Xinjiang have felt emboldened to conduct attacks and lead riots. Both of these states have responded with harsh security measures. Even here in America, neo-Confederates have felt emboldened by "The Brave Scots" to act out and have been met with counter-protests and fear.

Economically, the turmoil of the independence vote has triggered a second financial crisis. The Dow Jones has shaved 10% off its pre-referendum value. Credit freezes and declining demand have resulted in layoffs and bankruptcies across the country. For many Americans, who finally felt like the economy was on the upswing, there has been an outpouring of anti-Scottish anger. The day after the referendum some 87% of Americans supported Scottish independence, and the movie Braveheart saw an upswing in popularity. Now, 68% of the American population says Scottish independence was a mistake, and 59% blame Scotland for the current economic crisis, according to Pew polling. Even more shockingly, 46% of the American public is against allying with Scotland upon their full independence and 30% are unsure, with majorities in both categories citing beliefs that the Scottish are "untrustworthy," "only out for themselves," and would "take advantage of the United States." Each side of the aisle has found something to dislike. Liberals have held up Scotland as a cautionary tale of the dangers of nationalism. Conservatives have begun using Scotland as an example of the alleged perils of multiculturalism, and conspiracy theories about Spanish-speaking immigrants being a vanguard for an alleged Mexican reconquest of the Southwest have seen spikes in popularity. As the effects of Scottish independence ripple around the world, I'm reminded of the first telegram ever sent by Samuel Morse, "What hath God wrought?" In modern times, one could ask the same of Scotland.

Labour, Lib Dems Form Fragile Coalition Government After Conservative Thrashing
-Sky News, May 8th, 2015

BREAKING: NINE DEAD IN SHOOTING AT MOTHER EMANUEL CHURCH IN CHARLESTON
-CNN News Alert, June 17th, 2015

David Duke Leads March Through Richmond
-Washington Post, June 27th, 2015

Sales of Guns, American Flags, Skyrocket Across All Demographics in the South, as Fears of Neo-Confederates Emboldened by "Scotland Effect" Grow
-NBC News Online, July 2nd, 2015
​

PM Miliband: "We'll Have an Independence Deal by Year's End"

BBC Online News,

Prime Minister Milliband urged for calm and order this afternoon, and assured the public that Scotland will be independent by year's end. His government was elected on a platform of "Getting The Deal Done." However, there are serious roadblocks to actually accomplishing this goal.

Labour is in a fragile coalition government with a reinvigorated Liberal Democrat party. However, the coalition could fall apart at any minute. Milliband's Labour Party is taking a softer approach towards negotiations, and is willing to make serious concessions to Scottish demands. The Conservatives have taken a hardline stance. The Lib Dems' recent surge has been driven by disaffected Tories who aren't hardliners but also don't want to give too much to the Scottish. If an overly harsh deal is dead on arrival in Edinburgh, an overly kind one is likely to cause a Lib Dem revolt, and potential collapse of the Government.

One option that's being floated as a possible compromise is the so-called "Crash-Out option." Scotland would have its own currency, no part of the national debt, no British military presence, and would start with a clean slate. However, the nation would receive no financial assistance for the transition, the Scotland-England border would be a hard one (at least until Scotland joins the EU), all Scots currently residing in Britain would either have to swear an Oath to the Queen or face deportation, and all government contracts with Scottish firms will be cancelled and refunded. This proposal makes both sides equally enraged, which ironically means it might have the best shot at passing.

 

[Ficboy]

I'm going to edit Chapter 2 tonight to alter the debt debate. Regardless, here's another somewhat alliterative chapter title:

Chapter 3: Recession and Rage

Members of the Newcastle based "British Union League" clash with Scottish Nationalists in Glasgow (2015)

Better off Together: A Plea for a Second Referendum
-Op Ed in The Times, January 2nd, 2015

American Tourist Attacked, Hospitalized, in Glasgow After Confusing Scotland and Britain
-Fox News, February 8th, 2015

As Unrest Grows, GBP-USD Plunges to 0.931
-Bloomberg News Chyron, March 17th, 2015

Support for Welsh Independence Climbs to Record High 42%
-BBC Headline, April 3rd, 2015

5 Dead, 19 Injured in Parliament Square Riot Between Scottish Nationalists and British Unionists
-Washington Post, February 13th, 2015
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Scotland's Nationalist Dream Has Turned Into an International Nightmare

Originally printed in the LA Times, April 19th, 2015

On September 14th, 2014, Scotland voted for independence. At the time, the Scottish people had visions of a bright and glorious future. The events of the past few months have dampened such utopianism. If anything, one could argue that the entire world, not just Britain, has been worse off for the Scottish vote. Let's evaluate the damage.

In Britain, aside from continuing deadlock over debt, currency, and defense issues, the rhetoric from the Scottish and English sides has hopped right over dogwhistle and straight into bigotry. In Scotland, phrases such as "barbaric imperialists" have become common descriptions of the English and SNP official/MSP John Swinney was recently forced to walk back comments saying "Before the English thrust themselves upon India and Africa, they perfected their colonialist brutality here in Scotland," which drew widespread condemnation. Violence is becoming a real issue in Scotland, as the case of Florida man John Garibaldi, who was nearly killed for a simple slip of the tongue, can attest. In both Scotland and England, groups of soccer hooligans known as "firms" have begun attacking each other, as well as fans who just happen to be from the wrong side of the border. English rhetoric is no better, with noted Conservative hardliner Jacob Rees-Mogg summing up the attitudes of an increasingly large portion of the population "The Scots may well be the most ungrateful people on Earth. If it weren't for us, they'd be dealing with the 500th blood feud between Clan Armstrong and Clan MacJock." Jock, a slur for Scottish people, has come increasingly in vogue since the referendum, and there have been disturbing reports of English schoolchildren inventing a game called "Knock a Jock," where children of Scottish descent are targeted for physical attack.

Abroad, the so-called Scotland Effect has wrought havoc, as ethnic nationalists the world over have been emboldened. In France, Breton nationalists have begun to demonstrate in force, and there have been clashes with police. Spain has been thrust into crisis, as escalating violence from Catalonian nationalists prompted the government to declare martial law in the province, while elsewhere in the country the reaction to Catalonian nationalism has been a flare up in Francoism, Spain's Fascist ideology formulated by former dictator Francisco Franco. Italy has seen nationalists in both the North and Sicily act out as well, although thankfully violence has mostly been avoided. In Turkey, paranoia over the Scotland Effect has seen a dramatic increase in the persecution of Kurds. As far away as India and China, Kashmiri radicals and nationalists in Xinjiang have felt emboldened to conduct attacks and lead riots. Both of these states have responded with harsh security measures. Even here in America, neo-Confederates have felt emboldened by "The Brave Scots" to act out and have been met with counter-protests and fear.

Economically, the turmoil of the independence vote has triggered a second financial crisis. The Dow Jones has shaved 10% off its pre-referendum value. Credit freezes and declining demand have resulted in layoffs and bankruptcies across the country. For many Americans, who finally felt like the economy was on the upswing, there has been an outpouring of anti-Scottish anger. The day after the referendum some 87% of Americans supported Scottish independence, and the movie Braveheart saw an upswing in popularity. Now, 68% of the American population says Scottish independence was a mistake, and 59% blame Scotland for the current economic crisis, according to Pew polling. Even more shockingly, 46% of the American public is against allying with Scotland upon their full independence and 30% are unsure, with majorities in both categories citing beliefs that the Scottish are "untrustworthy," "only out for themselves," and would "take advantage of the United States." Each side of the aisle has found something to dislike. Liberals have held up Scotland as a cautionary tale of the dangers of nationalism. Conservatives have begun using Scotland as an example of the alleged perils of multiculturalism, and conspiracy theories about Spanish-speaking immigrants being a vanguard for an alleged Mexican reconquest of the Southwest have seen spikes in popularity. As the effects of Scottish independence ripple around the world, I'm reminded of the first telegram ever sent by Samuel Morse, "What hath God wrought?" In modern times, one could ask the same of Scotland.

Labour, Lib Dems Form Fragile Coalition Government After Conservative Thrashing
-Sky News, May 8th, 2015

BREAKING: NINE DEAD IN SHOOTING AT MOTHER EMANUEL CHURCH IN CHARLESTON
-CNN News Alert, June 17th, 2015

David Duke Leads March Through Richmond
-Washington Post, June 27th, 2015

Sales of Guns, American Flags, Skyrocket Across All Demographics in the South, as Fears of Neo-Confederates Emboldened by "Scotland Effect" Grow
-NBC News Online, July 2nd, 2015
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PM Miliband: "We'll Have an Independence Deal by Year's End"

BBC Online News,

Prime Minister Milliband urged for calm and order this afternoon, and assured the public that Scotland will be independent by year's end. His government was elected on a platform of "Getting The Deal Done." However, there are serious roadblocks to actually accomplishing this goal.

Labour is in a fragile coalition government with a reinvigorated Liberal Democrat party. However, the coalition could fall apart at any minute. Milliband's Labour Party is taking a softer approach towards negotiations, and is willing to make serious concessions to Scottish demands. The Conservatives have taken a hardline stance. The Lib Dems' recent surge has been driven by disaffected Tories who aren't hardliners but also don't want to give too much to the Scottish. If an overly harsh deal is dead on arrival in Edinburgh, an overly kind one is likely to cause a Lib Dem revolt, and potential collapse of the Government.

One option that's being floated as a possible compromise is the so-called "Crash-Out option." Scotland would have its own currency, no part of the national debt, no British military presence, and would start with a clean slate. However, the nation would receive no financial assistance for the transition, the Scotland-England border would be a hard one (at least until Scotland joins the EU), all Scots currently residing in Britain would either have to swear an Oath to the Queen or face deportation, and all government contracts with Scottish firms will be cancelled and refunded. This proposal makes both sides equally enraged, which ironically means it might have the best shot at passing.

It looks we have an American counterpart of the Scottish independence movement in the form of a Southern Nationalist movement divided into two factions: the ethnos led by David Duke and the civics led by the Abbeville Institute. I expect them to form a political party or two to gain seats in the Southern states of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri and Maryland. Of course given the history of third parties in America it won't take power in those states but it might make a huge impact on Southern politics.