It is the year 1762, and Frederick the Great of Prussia is facing a desperate situation in the Seven Years War. In spite of the technical superiority of the prussian army and the strategic might of its commander, Frederick himself, the defeat is almost certain, due to the massive disparity of available resources between Prussia and its adversaries.
In OTL, the death of the Tsarina Elizabeth, arch-enemy of Frederick, brought to the throne of Russia a filo-prussian emperor, Peter the II. Its reign was short, but its first act was to sign a ceasfire with Prussia, which allowed Frederick to exert pressure on Mary Theresa of Austria and force her to end the war in 1763. This fact is known as the Miracle of House of Brandenburg.
I would like to introduce a POD of this kind: what if Elizabeth stayed alive for another year?
It is hard to imagine that Prussia could stand against both Austria and Russia for so long, so I presume that Frederick would have lost the war. In that case, both Elizabeth and Mary Theresa would have destroyed Prussia as a State able to compete at the same level of the Great Powers of the time, since too destabilizing for the equilibrium in Europe. As result, they dismantled Prussia as follows: East Prussia was given to Russia, which subsequently ceded it to Poland in exchange of vast gains in the East; Silesia went back to the Habsburgs, settling the main issue of the war; France obtained some gains in the western duchies formally under control of the Hoenzollerns; Sweden obtained East Pomerania, even though its contribution to the war was minimal; Saxony obtained large portion of German land previously belonged to Brandenburg, expanding its size and becoming the second larger German State after Austria and obtaining a leading role. The Hoenzollern dominion was reduced just to Brandenburg, and they became once again Electors and lost the Royal dignity.
The Napoleonic wars wouldn’t change much. Brandenburg could align with France trying ti get back its old territories, whereas Saxony would remain loyal to Austria and the ancien regime, playing a crucial role in the wars. In 1815, after Napoleon’s defeat, the Vienna Congress would reward Saxony for its effort in fighting French expansionism in Germany with more land, taken mainly from Brandenburg, which would be punished for its alliance with Napoleon. Austria, however, would still be the leading power of the new German Confederation, which substituted the HRE, and it directly controlled the entire Rhineland, as to stop a hypothetical French invasion of Germany. Poland was instead dismantled in favour of Russia and Austria.
After the Napoleonic era, in Germany, the leading powers would be the newly formed Kingdoms of Bavaria, Saxony, Hanover and Wurtemberg, together with Austria. The Diet of the Deutsch Bund had its seat in the free city of Frankfurt, and its Presidency was held by the Habsburgs. However in German land the nationalist sentiment kept rising after the Napoleonic wars, and it was difficult for the Habsburgs to keep the status quo.
After the Revolution of 1848, all the German States had to concede the Constitution. Furthermore, the Diet of Frankfurt, where the main representatives of the liberal middle class met after the Revolution, wanted to unify all the German speaking people in one sovereign State. After a harsh debate between those who favoured the Habsburgs as the German unifiers and those who opposed it, the German Crown was offered to the king of Saxony. In fact, Saxons were seen as champions of German nationalism, as they stood still against Napoleon’s armies when they invaded and occupied Germany. The king of Saxony, differently from the king of Prussia in OTL, was not powerful enough to refuse and accepted immediately the proposal of the Diet. Straightforwardly, all the protestant German States recognized the Diet’s decision, and hailed the Saxon king as King of Germany. Bavaria, which was the main supporter of a Habsburg lead Germany, refused to recognize a government it feared would not have pursued its interests. The cultural rivalry between protestant and catholic was still alive, as it involved legitimization issues.
After having repressed the Revolution in Vienna and Munich, the Habsburgs sent an ultimatum to the Diet of Frankfurt to dismantle the union, and immediately recognize their superiority, as they held the presidency of the Deutsch Bund. The Diet refused, and Austrian and Bavarian forces invaded the land of the newly unified Germany. Quickly, the Austrian forces captured Dresden, the capital of Saxony, as a symbol of submission of the House of Wettin, the ruling House of Saxony and now Germany, and then proceeded on to Berlin to force the Hoenzollerns on their side. On the southern side, Bavarian forces struggled with Wurtemberg trying to breach German defences and reach Stuttgart and Frankfurt and overthrow the "illegitimate government".
The reaction of the Habsburgs would have won if it wasn’t for external help. The newly elected President of the Second French Republic Louis Bonaparte, officially in order to help fellow liberals of Germany, but clearly with the aim of weakening Austria, sent French expeditionary corps to fight side by side with the German armies. A French army invaded Austrian controlled Rhineland and met the Saxon Army in central Germany, were they defeated the Austrians in Leipzig, whereas a second smaller French corps, put under command of the King of Wurtemberg, occupied Pfalz and defeated Bavarian forces before that could reach Frankfurt. In the meantime, other German forces invaded the duchy of Holstein and Pommerania, to reclaim them from Denmark and Sweden respectively.
Two years of war would follow, with alternate tide. At the end, the French-German Army defeated the Austrians at the battle of Sadowa, and seized Prague, threatening a full invasion of the territory of the Empire. After that, the Habsburgs agreed to sign the Treaty of Nurimberg. The Habsburg recognized the sovereign German State, which, according to the Frankfurt Constitution, was a unicameral constitutional monarchy, whose ruling House was the House of Wettin, whose legislative branch was the Diet, and whose capital was Frankfurt. The Deutsch Bund was dismantled, and so all the claims of the Habsburgs in Germany. However, the new German State had to recognize full sovereignty of the Kingdom of Bavaria, with no claim over it.
This alternate unification of Germany would produce a liberal State in Central Europe, with no sign of militarism and autocracy of the Prussian State that emerged after the formation of the German Empire in OTL. This would probably align Germany with England, due to ideological similarity, whereas France, which would become an autocratic Empire under Napoleon the III, would be pushed towards the repressive monarchies of Austria and Russia, creating completely new alliance in Europe. With no French-Prussian war, the French Empire would endure, and so it would do the system of alliances generated in this way. Maybe Italy could join the "liberal alliance" of England and Germany. The outcome of WWI would be unpredictable, maybe it wouldn't even happen, or it would be a new version of the Seven Years War in Europe.
I am still working out the details for what could happen after 1850, and also on some maps that could help to understan the shape of Europe after my proposed POD. Any suggestion and comment is welcome!
In OTL, the death of the Tsarina Elizabeth, arch-enemy of Frederick, brought to the throne of Russia a filo-prussian emperor, Peter the II. Its reign was short, but its first act was to sign a ceasfire with Prussia, which allowed Frederick to exert pressure on Mary Theresa of Austria and force her to end the war in 1763. This fact is known as the Miracle of House of Brandenburg.
I would like to introduce a POD of this kind: what if Elizabeth stayed alive for another year?
It is hard to imagine that Prussia could stand against both Austria and Russia for so long, so I presume that Frederick would have lost the war. In that case, both Elizabeth and Mary Theresa would have destroyed Prussia as a State able to compete at the same level of the Great Powers of the time, since too destabilizing for the equilibrium in Europe. As result, they dismantled Prussia as follows: East Prussia was given to Russia, which subsequently ceded it to Poland in exchange of vast gains in the East; Silesia went back to the Habsburgs, settling the main issue of the war; France obtained some gains in the western duchies formally under control of the Hoenzollerns; Sweden obtained East Pomerania, even though its contribution to the war was minimal; Saxony obtained large portion of German land previously belonged to Brandenburg, expanding its size and becoming the second larger German State after Austria and obtaining a leading role. The Hoenzollern dominion was reduced just to Brandenburg, and they became once again Electors and lost the Royal dignity.
The Napoleonic wars wouldn’t change much. Brandenburg could align with France trying ti get back its old territories, whereas Saxony would remain loyal to Austria and the ancien regime, playing a crucial role in the wars. In 1815, after Napoleon’s defeat, the Vienna Congress would reward Saxony for its effort in fighting French expansionism in Germany with more land, taken mainly from Brandenburg, which would be punished for its alliance with Napoleon. Austria, however, would still be the leading power of the new German Confederation, which substituted the HRE, and it directly controlled the entire Rhineland, as to stop a hypothetical French invasion of Germany. Poland was instead dismantled in favour of Russia and Austria.
After the Napoleonic era, in Germany, the leading powers would be the newly formed Kingdoms of Bavaria, Saxony, Hanover and Wurtemberg, together with Austria. The Diet of the Deutsch Bund had its seat in the free city of Frankfurt, and its Presidency was held by the Habsburgs. However in German land the nationalist sentiment kept rising after the Napoleonic wars, and it was difficult for the Habsburgs to keep the status quo.
After the Revolution of 1848, all the German States had to concede the Constitution. Furthermore, the Diet of Frankfurt, where the main representatives of the liberal middle class met after the Revolution, wanted to unify all the German speaking people in one sovereign State. After a harsh debate between those who favoured the Habsburgs as the German unifiers and those who opposed it, the German Crown was offered to the king of Saxony. In fact, Saxons were seen as champions of German nationalism, as they stood still against Napoleon’s armies when they invaded and occupied Germany. The king of Saxony, differently from the king of Prussia in OTL, was not powerful enough to refuse and accepted immediately the proposal of the Diet. Straightforwardly, all the protestant German States recognized the Diet’s decision, and hailed the Saxon king as King of Germany. Bavaria, which was the main supporter of a Habsburg lead Germany, refused to recognize a government it feared would not have pursued its interests. The cultural rivalry between protestant and catholic was still alive, as it involved legitimization issues.
After having repressed the Revolution in Vienna and Munich, the Habsburgs sent an ultimatum to the Diet of Frankfurt to dismantle the union, and immediately recognize their superiority, as they held the presidency of the Deutsch Bund. The Diet refused, and Austrian and Bavarian forces invaded the land of the newly unified Germany. Quickly, the Austrian forces captured Dresden, the capital of Saxony, as a symbol of submission of the House of Wettin, the ruling House of Saxony and now Germany, and then proceeded on to Berlin to force the Hoenzollerns on their side. On the southern side, Bavarian forces struggled with Wurtemberg trying to breach German defences and reach Stuttgart and Frankfurt and overthrow the "illegitimate government".
The reaction of the Habsburgs would have won if it wasn’t for external help. The newly elected President of the Second French Republic Louis Bonaparte, officially in order to help fellow liberals of Germany, but clearly with the aim of weakening Austria, sent French expeditionary corps to fight side by side with the German armies. A French army invaded Austrian controlled Rhineland and met the Saxon Army in central Germany, were they defeated the Austrians in Leipzig, whereas a second smaller French corps, put under command of the King of Wurtemberg, occupied Pfalz and defeated Bavarian forces before that could reach Frankfurt. In the meantime, other German forces invaded the duchy of Holstein and Pommerania, to reclaim them from Denmark and Sweden respectively.
Two years of war would follow, with alternate tide. At the end, the French-German Army defeated the Austrians at the battle of Sadowa, and seized Prague, threatening a full invasion of the territory of the Empire. After that, the Habsburgs agreed to sign the Treaty of Nurimberg. The Habsburg recognized the sovereign German State, which, according to the Frankfurt Constitution, was a unicameral constitutional monarchy, whose ruling House was the House of Wettin, whose legislative branch was the Diet, and whose capital was Frankfurt. The Deutsch Bund was dismantled, and so all the claims of the Habsburgs in Germany. However, the new German State had to recognize full sovereignty of the Kingdom of Bavaria, with no claim over it.
This alternate unification of Germany would produce a liberal State in Central Europe, with no sign of militarism and autocracy of the Prussian State that emerged after the formation of the German Empire in OTL. This would probably align Germany with England, due to ideological similarity, whereas France, which would become an autocratic Empire under Napoleon the III, would be pushed towards the repressive monarchies of Austria and Russia, creating completely new alliance in Europe. With no French-Prussian war, the French Empire would endure, and so it would do the system of alliances generated in this way. Maybe Italy could join the "liberal alliance" of England and Germany. The outcome of WWI would be unpredictable, maybe it wouldn't even happen, or it would be a new version of the Seven Years War in Europe.
I am still working out the details for what could happen after 1850, and also on some maps that could help to understan the shape of Europe after my proposed POD. Any suggestion and comment is welcome!