The development of the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Cuba without a Spanish-American War

CaliGuy

Banned
What would the development of the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Cuba look like had the Spanish-American War been completely prevented?

Also, for the record, I am specifically talking about the entirety of the last 119 years here.
 
Personally I believe Cuba would become a major military port connecting European Powers and the Americas, radiate their influence from there. Kinda like American navy in modern Japan.
 
We Filipinos may get eaten up by another colonial power, but if we're lucky, we play the various colonial powers off against one another and remain independent, establishing a relatively stable republic as a regional power, possibly as a junior partner in whatever Japan gets up to.

Worst case scenario, we get sodomized by Japan for a couple generations and are left as a poorer tropical Korea.
 
I think Bonifacio's republic of Katagalugan survives in this TL as well not Aguinaldo's as a butterfly effect, Alternatively I think the British will get it since they have Sabah and Sarawak(like the OTL Americans would take advantage of the chaos caused by the death of Bonifacio).
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
Personally I believe Cuba would become a major military port connecting European Powers and the Americas, radiate their influence from there. Kinda like American navy in modern Japan.
Was Spain interested in doing this in Cuba?

We Filipinos may get eaten up by another colonial power, but if we're lucky, we play the various colonial powers off against one another and remain independent, establishing a relatively stable republic as a regional power, possibly as a junior partner in whatever Japan gets up to.

Worst case scenario, we get sodomized by Japan for a couple generations and are left as a poorer tropical Korea.
Would a break-up of the Philippines into several separate, independent states be possible in this TL?
 
Would a break-up of the Philippines into several separate, independent states be possible in this TL?

Hm... nah.

I mean, you could break off the Maguindanao and Sulu sultanates away from the main part of the Philippines, but otherwise, eh. The Philippines as an idea and as a nation is already there. It's possible, but implausible.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Hm... nah.

I mean, you could break off the Maguindanao and Sulu sultanates away from the main part of the Philippines, but otherwise, eh. The Philippines as an idea and as a nation is already there. It's possible, but implausible.
OK.

Also, when did the idea of the Philippines as a nation become widespread?
 
The Philippines may well have managed to break from Spain. The island republic--or republics if unity does not hold--might get swallowed up by another imperial power. Then again, the Philippines might not: If it manages to establish a credible government and perhaps manages to balance off rival imperial powers, it could persist. Things could develop interestingly from that point.

Puerto Rico, I think, has the potential to develop a profitable and peaceable relationship with Spain, with a certain amount of self-government under a rule from Spain that no one has much problem with. Cuba, in contrast, has the potential to evolve very badly even if the Cuban rebellion is repressed. How long until it explodes again, and what will other powers do?

What will happen to Spanish Micronesia? On the one hand, Spain was practically unchallenged here. On the other hand, well, what's the point?
 
OK.

Also, when did the idea of the Philippines as a nation become widespread?

Hm... a generation earlier, but these islands were made into a common culture after three centuries of Spanish rule before that.

Philippine nationalism as an actual movement I think started in the early 19th century, as a reaction against Spain assuming direct control over these islands (before that, the Philippines were administered as part of the Viceroyalty of New Spain). The corruption and outdated racism of the friars led to a secularization (as in, giving parishes to non-religious order priests) movement, which culminated in a revolt in Cavite in 1872 which led to the execution of three Filipino priests: Gomez, Burgos, and Zamora. Those executions weighed heavily on the generation that came after them, the generation which led the revolution.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The Philippines may well have managed to break from Spain. The island republic--or republics if unity does not hold--might get swallowed up by another imperial power. Then again, the Philippines might not: If it manages to establish a credible government and perhaps manages to balance off rival imperial powers, it could persist. Things could develop interestingly from that point.

Makes sense.

Also, do you agree with Timaeus that a break-up of the Philippines is unlikely?

Puerto Rico, I think, has the potential to develop a profitable and peaceable relationship with Spain, with a certain amount of self-government under a rule from Spain that no one has much problem with.

You mean similar to Aruba's relation with the Netherlands?

Cuba, in contrast, has the potential to evolve very badly even if the Cuban rebellion is repressed. How long until it explodes again, and what will other powers do?

So, even if the U.S. declines to intervene in 1898, it might feel compelled--perhaps together with Britain and/or France--to intervene in Cuba in the future?

What will happen to Spanish Micronesia? On the one hand, Spain was practically unchallenged here. On the other hand, well, what's the point?

What about selling it to Germany and/or Japan?
 
We Filipinos may get eaten up by another colonial power, but if we're lucky, we play the various colonial powers off against one another and remain independent, establishing a relatively stable republic as a regional power, possibly as a junior partner in whatever Japan gets up to.

Worst case scenario, we get sodomized by Japan for a couple generations and are left as a poorer tropical Korea.

Sadly you could be right. I don't know why Japan went the "rapey and looting" route instead of the "bread and circuses" route. The British at least usually make some efforts to make lives better for the local landowners and farmhands (possibly with the ulterior motive of making law enforcement cheaper for the bottom line) and sometimes they didn't try (East India Trading Company?)
 
so is the cuban rebellion crushed before the us gets involved or does spain sack the colonial government and start making reforms?

both possibilities spin off in completely different ways
 
Or split between the two of them, no?
The USA originally intended to only take Luzon but literally everyone in America and Europe told them just to take the whole thing if they were going to do that. Something something humanitarian, something something don't split up a peoples or something of the sort.
 
Hm... a generation earlier, but these islands were made into a common culture after three centuries of Spanish rule before that.

Philippine nationalism as an actual movement I think started in the early 19th century, as a reaction against Spain assuming direct control over these islands (before that, the Philippines were administered as part of the Viceroyalty of New Spain). The corruption and outdated racism of the friars led to a secularization (as in, giving parishes to non-religious order priests) movement, which culminated in a revolt in Cavite in 1872 which led to the execution of three Filipino priests: Gomez, Burgos, and Zamora. Those executions weighed heavily on the generation that came after them, the generation which led the revolution.

Actually, the revolution would not hold if Bonifacio is still killed by Aguinaldo, the British would take advantage of the chaos if not the Americans.

The USA originally intended to only take Luzon but literally everyone in America and Europe told them just to take the whole thing if they were going to do that. Something something humanitarian, something something don't split up a peoples or something of the sort.

I think America taking only Luzon will be better than OTL we would be spared of the attention to the secessionists in Mindanao.
 
I think America taking only Luzon will be better than OTL we would be spared of the attention to the secessionists in Mindanao.

You're forgetting the roots of Moro secessionism in the atrocities of the 20th century. Also the impossibility of dividing the Philippines so late in the first place.

Luzon and Visayas at least have been united since the beginning, and all the colonial powers that tried to get their claws on Mindanao had to try to get around the fact that Mindanao was part of the Spanish East Indies, which they failed in doing.
 
You're forgetting the roots of Moro secessionism in the atrocities of the 20th century. Also the impossibility of dividing the Philippines so late in the first place.

Luzon and Visayas at least have been united since the beginning, and all the colonial powers that tried to get their claws on Mindanao had to try to get around the fact that Mindanao was part of the Spanish East Indies, which they failed in doing.
Visayas actually split during the revolution there is a Visayas republic during that time, so a split is possible.
 
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