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This question bugs me more than the opposite, which would be how political parties end up developing in the victorious Confederacy. How would the changes resulting from a Confederate victory affect the development of American political parties in the United States?

A few ideas to ponder for this thread, at least:

1. What will become of the Republican Party? Assume that for all intents and purposes of this thread, that McClellan defeats Lincoln in 1864 and sues for peace with the Confederacy. Where does the Republican Party develop from here? I honestly don't see the party falling apart, as Turtledove suggests, but then again, I'm not sure how its going to develop, either. I would suppose they run hawkish, anti-Confederate candidates for a little while before grabbing up pro-business candidates, as they did OTL. This wouldn't really change the party from its current incarnation today, except I would expect that it would develop without the aid of Southern Conservatives into a New England socially liberal, fiscally conservative party.

2. What will become of the Democratic Party? With a McClellan victory, I could theoretically see the Northern Democrats taking the thunder from the GOP in pushing through OTL's Reconstruction Amendments. This might give the party more credence with black voters, but overall, in the short term, it would remain a heavily immigrant and heavily urban party. Where do they go from there, then? Well, there's the possibility that the Democrats continue along the course of classical liberalism, unlike OTL, and morph into an analogue of the British Liberal Party before being edged out of the electoral playing field to a left-wing third party; or, there's the continuation of the populist tradition in the Democratic Party, merging the party with the western Populists and developing it into a sort of militant liberal party of Catholics, Jews, and other minorities in the north and west. I would say that this is the most likely course, and that a modern result would be a thoroughly more populist Democratic Party, one that might not be as liberal on issues as abortion (due to their majority Catholic and African-American base) as OTL's Democratic Party, but even more liberal on economic issues.

3. Is there a possibility of a strong third party arising? Without the Southern states to win, I would think that the possibility of a populist or socialist movement arising would either push the parties (or one, like the Democrats) to the left, or alternatively, begrudgingly watch as these parties outpace them. Is there a real chance for Debs' Socialist Party to emerge as a key player in American politics? I'm not sure.

That's all I have time for for now, but I'll probably come up with some more questions in subsequent posts.
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