The Development of Political Parties in the Union after a CSA Victory

This question bugs me more than the opposite, which would be how political parties end up developing in the victorious Confederacy. How would the changes resulting from a Confederate victory affect the development of American political parties in the United States?

A few ideas to ponder for this thread, at least:

1. What will become of the Republican Party? Assume that for all intents and purposes of this thread, that McClellan defeats Lincoln in 1864 and sues for peace with the Confederacy. Where does the Republican Party develop from here? I honestly don't see the party falling apart, as Turtledove suggests, but then again, I'm not sure how its going to develop, either. I would suppose they run hawkish, anti-Confederate candidates for a little while before grabbing up pro-business candidates, as they did OTL. This wouldn't really change the party from its current incarnation today, except I would expect that it would develop without the aid of Southern Conservatives into a New England socially liberal, fiscally conservative party.

2. What will become of the Democratic Party? With a McClellan victory, I could theoretically see the Northern Democrats taking the thunder from the GOP in pushing through OTL's Reconstruction Amendments. This might give the party more credence with black voters, but overall, in the short term, it would remain a heavily immigrant and heavily urban party. Where do they go from there, then? Well, there's the possibility that the Democrats continue along the course of classical liberalism, unlike OTL, and morph into an analogue of the British Liberal Party before being edged out of the electoral playing field to a left-wing third party; or, there's the continuation of the populist tradition in the Democratic Party, merging the party with the western Populists and developing it into a sort of militant liberal party of Catholics, Jews, and other minorities in the north and west. I would say that this is the most likely course, and that a modern result would be a thoroughly more populist Democratic Party, one that might not be as liberal on issues as abortion (due to their majority Catholic and African-American base) as OTL's Democratic Party, but even more liberal on economic issues.

3. Is there a possibility of a strong third party arising? Without the Southern states to win, I would think that the possibility of a populist or socialist movement arising would either push the parties (or one, like the Democrats) to the left, or alternatively, begrudgingly watch as these parties outpace them. Is there a real chance for Debs' Socialist Party to emerge as a key player in American politics? I'm not sure.

That's all I have time for for now, but I'll probably come up with some more questions in subsequent posts.
 
A very interesting question. I think you have a very interesting analysis, but I come to a different conclusion. Permit me to explain.
1. I cannot see the Republican Party surviving for very long after a CSA victory in the ACW. The Republican Party was a very new coalition of Northern Whigs, anti-slavery Democrats, Free Soilers and pro War (but not necessarily anti-slavery) Democrats. An unsuccessful end to the war would see this coaltion dismanantled, either in slow motion as the Democrats sheepishly make their way back to their old party or with a bang as the Free Soilers push for radical change that the old Whigs can not accept. The majority of Northerners would blame the "black" Republicans for the defeat and the GOP brand would be seriously and permanently damaged.
2. My TL would have the GOP staying together long enough to run a very poor campaign against McClellan's run for re-election in 1872 and then falling apart before the next election in 1876.
3. Radical Free Soilers would continue to be an opposition party but with less and less support. The public would have less and less patience for ideas of raqcial equality seeing as how the blacks and theior Republican supporters were "responsible" for the dismemberment of the country. Old line Whigs would drift towards the more business oriented wing of the Democratic Party or would try to start new parties with names like "New Nationalists" or "New Federalists". Anything reminding people of the inept and corrupt Republicans( Simeon Cameron and his "shoddy" blankets would be a favorite whipping boy of the Democrats) would be avoided.
4. After continuing conservative bland and increasingly corrupt Democratic Presidents though the 70's and the 80's a new national opposition party would finally be organized by some of the younger refugees from the GOP such as Garfield, Bristow and TR. By then the radicalism of the Free Soilers will have been cooled or ignored and the corruption of a long serving Democratic Party will provide the new party with an opening.
5. The traditional gravitation of the U.S. towards a two party system will be be renewed with the Democratic Party as the conservative party of big city bosses and big business which depends upon the favors of government and the New Federalist Party as the progressive party of the "better" people, intellectualls and entrepeneurs.

What do you think?
 
In a FPTP system, there is a tendency for a coalescing into two major parties. However, if Populist or Socialist parties arise and have a strong regional implantation, they can survive, at least for a while.
It also depends on whether the FPTP is replaced, nationally, at a state level, or locally, by a form of proportional representation, which would strengthen said parties, but there could be opposition of one or the two major parties.
Without the south, assuming both parties survive the defeat, without one of them being branded as responsible for the defeat:
-the GOP can turn either Progressive, case in which more Conservative Republicans may join the Democratic party, in turn making some Northern Democrats join Populists or Socialists or even the Republican Party, if their platform changes enough to emcompass them;[1]
-or turn Liberal-Conservative (approximately OTL Rockefeller Republicans), in which case the Progressives may turn into a new party or merge/join with Democrats, which will turn left, abandoning Classical Liberalism and the remains of Peace Democrats from the Civil War to the Republican Party.[2]

[1]This scenario would mean:
-for the GOP: a vaguely Social-Democratic party, with Centrist, Populist, and perhaps even Democratic-Socialist wings;*
- for the Democratic Party: a Liberal Conservative party, with a Moderate Conservative (the former Constitutional Union voters) and a Conservative (Peace Democrats, and those who otherwise voted Breckinridge in 1860) wings.**
[2]This scenario would mean:
-for the GOP: see **;
-for the Democratic Party: see *.

Another variant in these scenarios is that if none of the major parties existing in the late XIX/early XX century represents the growing number of industrial workers, a combination of Populism and Socialism may turn into a single party (or end in the merger of two prior parties), which would have a Christian Socialism tone. This would either make either one of the two major parties collapse[3] (either Republicans & Democrats, or other combination that may have formed of a prior collapse of one those, taking into account the scenario posited by Alexander Hamilton), or narrow the support for both[4].
[3]This would means a party akin to the modern day GOP.
[4]This would mean a Liberal-Conservative GOP and a vaguely Centrist Democratic Party (with moderate Socialist Christians, Moderate Conservatives and Conservatives.
 
Last edited:
A very interesting question. I think you have a very interesting analysis, but I come to a different conclusion. Permit me to explain.

1. I cannot see the Republican Party surviving for very long after a CSA victory in the ACW. The Republican Party was a very new coalition of Northern Whigs, anti-slavery Democrats, Free Soilers and pro War (but not necessarily anti-slavery) Democrats. An unsuccessful end to the war would see this coaltion dismanantled, either in slow motion as the Democrats sheepishly make their way back to their old party or with a bang as the Free Soilers push for radical change that the old Whigs can not accept. The majority of Northerners would blame the "black" Republicans for the defeat and the GOP brand would be seriously and permanently damaged.

I agree that the Republican Party is probably gone, but I think the coalition of interests it represented would be more durable. The Trans-Continental Railroad and the Homestead Act are two pieces of legislation that the GOP moved once the Civil War started. These were pillars of the late 19th century American economy OTL, and will be in this TL as well. Big Business is going to gain political power, and just as it did OTL, and that Big Business is going to need a political party. I just think the alignment of business and political forces you saw in OTL as the GOP would also emerge in this *USA.

2. My TL would have the GOP staying together long enough to run a very poor campaign against McClellan's run for re-election in 1872 and then falling apart before the next election in 1876.

In the face of intra-party fighting and the rise of new political parties that espouse similar views without the taint on the GOP. I don't think McClellan would survive either though. The country is going to have a collective nervous breakdown after it losses the war.

3. Radical Free Soilers would continue to be an opposition party but with less and less support. The public would have less and less patience for ideas of raqcial equality seeing as how the blacks and theior Republican supporters were "responsible" for the dismemberment of the country. Old line Whigs would drift towards the more business oriented wing of the Democratic Party or would try to start new parties with names like "New Nationalists" or "New Federalists". Anything reminding people of the inept and corrupt Republicans( Simeon Cameron and his "shoddy" blankets would be a favorite whipping boy of the Democrats) would be avoided.

The Union's loss in the Civil War is going to blow both parties up. One side loss and the other side twisted the knife (Copperheads anyone?). The idea of "November Criminals" is probably going to emerge pretty quickly, after all the Union really has no excuse to lose the Civil War. The search for "who lost the war" is going to claim many political careers, and I believe probably sweep both parties along with it.

4. After continuing conservative bland and increasingly corrupt Democratic Presidents though the 70's and the 80's a new national opposition party would finally be organized by some of the younger refugees from the GOP such as Garfield, Bristow and TR. By then the radicalism of the Free Soilers will have been cooled or ignored and the corruption of a long serving Democratic Party will provide the new party with an opening.

I think you'll see very disordered politics during the late 60's and 70's while the country's political realigns and deals with the loss of the war. With the South now out of the Union, I don't know how the two party system will react. I don't think you'll have to wait for the early 20th century to see it settle down though.

5. The traditional gravitation of the U.S. towards a two party system will be be renewed with the Democratic Party as the conservative party of big city bosses and big business which depends upon the favors of government and the New Federalist Party as the progressive party of the "better" people, intellectualls and entrepeneurs.

Big Business' rise will help to order the political system, maybe with some ego-building annexations in the Caribbean or Central America (the Dominican Republic anyone?), so you have some kind of "Nationalist" party that Big Business supports and that engages in overseas adventuring (basically the old GOP with a new brandname). The opposition party is built around the urban bosses and midwestern farmers (basically the Democrats with a new brandname).

In this *US organized labor and its struggles are going to be the defining issue of the rapidly industrializing country. The loss of the South is going to get rid of the South's electoral influence and with it the anti-union populism that kept organized labor out of two-party politics. The electoral opportunity that organizing labor as a political force presents is going to be much bigger because of the changed electoral calculus of the South-less US. The natural alignment between the Populists and Organized Labor could take place without the South. Debs and W.J. Bryan could remake the country.
 
Top