The development of Central Asia without Russian colonialism

I think you'll find that people's lives intersect, and that 'lines of causality' are not somehow magically separate from one another. In other words: changes accumulate hyperbolically. Not that it matters that much to me: if you want to have the PRC in a scenario with an 1580 POD, go for it. It just won't be happening in any world I envision. And as I said, I'm assuming a scenario where Russia never makes it past the Urals, so that should provide enough evident causal changes even for your liking.

On that note...



I imagine a middle must have a north. If we have a Western Asia, and an East Asia, and if the Russian Far East is considered part of East Asia, being the Far East and all...then surely the bit between Western Russia and the Russian Far East must belong to Central Asia?

Eh, it makes sense to me. ;)
It's fine you consider Siberia to be Central Asia, however most geographers don't. Literally all of Russia east of Urals geographically is also called "North Asia". You're forgetting we also have a South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) and South East Asia (Thailand, Burma, Vietname, Indonesia, Philippines, etc).
 
I think you'll find that people's lives intersect, and that 'lines of causality' are not somehow magically separate from one another. In other words: changes accumulate hyperbolically. Not that it matters that much to me: if you want to have the PRC in a scenario with an 1580 POD, go for it. It just won't be happening in any world I envision. And as I said, I'm assuming a scenario where Russia never makes it past the Urals, so that should provide enough evident causal changes even for your liking.

On that note...



I imagine a middle must have a north. If we have a Western Asia, and an East Asia, and if the Russian Far East is considered part of East Asia, being the Far East and all...then surely the bit between Western Russia and the Russian Far East must belong to Central Asia?

Eh, it makes sense to me. ;)
I'm always reminded in these discussions of a scene in the Star Wars novel Invincible-Caedus is talking to Tahiri about the past and changing it(he lied to get her on his side you see) and uses the analogy of throwing a rock into the river-the rock creates a ripple to be sure but it doesn't change the overall course and direction of said River.

If you back to the medieval ages and kill random peasant or minor lordling A it probably won't change much. Some threads of history are less important than others.

Using the spider web analogy-the random peasant or minor lordling is but a small string or outlying point on the web-the ripples of said person's death eventually cease to move any further and the web goes on as before.

Some points in the web do have more drastic effects-get rid of Islam, Christianity, Alexander or Genghis Khan and the shape of the web is very different
 

Skallagrim

Banned
I'm always reminded in these discussions of a scene in the Star Wars novel Invincible-Caedus is talking to Tahiri about the past and changing it(he lied to get her on his side you see) and uses the analogy of throwing a rock into the river-the rock creates a ripple to be sure but it doesn't change the overall course and direction of said River.

If you back to the medieval ages and kill random peasant or minor lordling A it probably won't change much. Some threads of history are less important than others.

Using the spider web analogy-the random peasant or minor lordling is but a small string or outlying point on the web-the ripples of said person's death eventually cease to move any further and the web goes on as before.

Some points in the web do have more drastic effects-get rid of Islam, Christianity, Alexander or Genghis Khan and the shape of the web is very different

The gistof that comparison is clear. My objection to the specific analogy would be that it's limited in its dimension. Unlike a spiderweb, causality stretches out not only along the two axes of space (length and width, so to speak), but also through time. It's more as if each change causes a "cone" or "pyramid" of cascading alteration, which grows ever bigger as time marches on.

Certainly, the more influential the change, the faster this "causality cone" reaches epic proportions. But even the very smallest will ultimately lead to an unrecognisable world. Because this is where @Napoleonrules makes a logical error. He writes:

Eh, your scenario begins with hundreds of ripples, but they are outweighed by hundreds of millions of people who are the same and have no contact at all with your ripples, and whose billion descendants are still untouched by your thousands upon thousands, and by the time your ripples reach a million, there are SEVERAL billion people untouched by your million. Unless one of those ripples outdoes a "great man" history event, you're never going to make the ocean see your couple of stones that were thrown effect the tide caused by the moon which is still the same.

...because the truth is, there's no such thing as staying untouched. Not in the long run. Because the causality cones aren't existing side by side, as if in a vacuum. They intersect constantly, and when they do, this happens:

causalitycones.png


These are five such cones, partially shown. Red represents the altered causality, deriving from one event. Every point at which the cones intersect, the influence of the altered causality cone leads the events from the intersection to be different. There is no way to counter it: there is no "reparative causality". If things change, they stay changed. The altered causality asserts its altered state, dominating over the course of OTL. It will expand and expand, ever at the expense of all the causality cones with which it interacts.

Given enough time, its effects will reach everyone, everywhere.
 
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PhilippeO

Banned
I'm always reminded in these discussions of a scene in the Star Wars novel Invincible-Caedus is talking to Tahiri about the past and changing it(he lied to get her on his side you see) and uses the analogy of throwing a rock into the river-the rock creates a ripple to be sure but it doesn't change the overall course and direction of said River.

If you back to the medieval ages and kill random peasant or minor lordling A it probably won't change much. Some threads of history are less important than others.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/principles-of-the-butterfly-effect.417478/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-new-look-at-the-butterfly-effect.414058/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/problems-with-the-butterfly-effect.394494/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...fly-effect-at-planetary-cosmic-scales.389391/

this thing has been debated several times. Some of Ah-ers agree with you and follow more limited version of Butterfly Effect. Others, like Skallagrim, follow much more expansive version of Butterfly effect.

to use your own example, some random peasant killed in 1300.

That peasant might have great-...-great grandaughter who became King's mistress affecting future Royal decision in 1uture.

That peasant might have second son which descendants in future war accidentally shoot important general in battle.

That peasant descendants might have pig, who run in front of noble hunting party killing Royal princes who fall from horse.

That peasant in future might help local noble who lost with food and direction, so he could meet women he fancy at some party, without that meeting, that noble would marry different girls.

On extreme level (butterfly effect name itself), the flap of wings of butterfly in complicated system could create storm somewhere in world, so non-existence of single peasant could cause all atmospheric effect (rain, storm, fog) to happen at different times or different places, thus affecting battle, meeting, journey, etc.

Human sperm also very sensitive, rain or bright sun at day of conception could affect which sperm among millions who 'win'. so any conception would be affected.
 
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/principles-of-the-butterfly-effect.417478/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-new-look-at-the-butterfly-effect.414058/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/problems-with-the-butterfly-effect.394494/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...fly-effect-at-planetary-cosmic-scales.389391/

this thing has been debated several times. Some of Ah-ers agree with you and follow more limited version of Butterfly Effect. Others, like Skallagrim, follow much more expansive version of Butterfly effect.

to use your own example, some random peasant killed in 1300.

That peasant might have great-...-great grandaughter who became King's mistress affecting future Royal decision in 1uture.

That peasant might have second son which descendants in future war accidentally shoot important general in battle.

That peasant descendants might have pig, who run in front of noble hunting party killing Royal princes who fall from horse.

That peasant in future might help local noble who lost with food and direction, so he could meet women he fancy at some party, without that meeting, that noble would marry different girls.

On extreme level (butterfly effect name itself), the flap of wings of butterfly in complicated system could create storm somewhere in world, so non-existence of single peasant could cause all atmospheric effect (rain, storm, fog) to happen at different times or different places, thus affecting battle, meeting, journey, etc.

Human sperm also very sensitive, rain or bright sun at day of conception could affect which sperm among millions who 'win'. so any conception would be affected.
The first parts are debatable (still wrong, but debatable), that last one is ridiculous and I wish people would stop with the sperm crap, creating a POD, especially a single POD does not reset probability. If Confucious is not born, then a die thrown in Rome 5 mins after the time of his OTL birth WILL BE THE SAME AS OTL, because there is no way for "butterflies" to fly fast enough to cause differences. Every single decay of an atom, and quantum fluctuation will be the same UNLESS YOU CAN PROVE CAUSALITY FROM THE POD. Sick of this quantum and sperm crap being thrown around to justify resetting the clock and making whatever changes of whim the author wants. Pick a freaking POD, and let the story naturally unfold as it should, not where you want it to go; otherwise admit you're just cheating for the sake of fiction. But, if you're like me, and you want to see "how would history logically unfold from this change" then make it as realistic as possible and that means no cheating. But call it cheating and be honest with what you're trying to accomplish.
 
isn't Afghanistan fate good example for CE without Russia : weak monarchy, strong local autonomy, tribe that ignore border, Westernization in big cities, etc

Russia repeatedly tried to conquer it so it doesn't really count. Plus its currently in ashes, so from that conclusion all Central Asian states are now wartorn messes.
 
I must say that I'm not familiar with the Star Wars novels, nor with those characters, but the gist is clear. My objection to the analogy is that it's limited in its dimension. Unlike a spiderweb, causality stretches out not only along the two axes of space (length and width, so to speak), but also through time. It's more as if each change causes a "cone" or "pyramid" of cascading alteration, which grows ever bigger as time marches on.

Certainly, the more influential the change, the faster this "causality cone" reaches epic proportions. But even the very smallest will ultimately lead to an unrecognisable world. Because this is where @Napoleonrules makes a logical error. He writes:



...because the truth is, there's no such thing as staying untouched. Not in the long run. Because the causality cones aren't existing side by side, as if in a vacuum. They intersect constantly, and when they do, this happens:

View attachment 343943

These are five such cones, partially shown. Red represents the altered causality, deriving from one event. Every point at which the cones intersect, the influence of the altered causality cone leads the events from the intersection to be different. There is no way to counter it: there is no "reparative causality". If things change, they stay changed. The altered causality asserts its altered state, dominating over the course of OTL. It will expand and expand, ever at the expense of all the causality cones with which it interacts.

Given enough time, its effects will reach everyone, everywhere.
You are assuming your change takes precedence over all the OTL ripples, that is not true. A small ripple will be drowned out and not go any further because a larger wave or the tide itself. Your POD doesn't create infinitely reproducing butterflies, that form that kind of cone through time. They instead die off, don't reproduce, and your cone can end up a diamond shape, or some weird polygon that comes to a singularity at the end where time has swamped your POD and the world has converged with OTL. You seem to think the world is a lot more connected than it really is, even in 2017. Especially the farther back in time you go the more likely your POD's ripples will die before it gets big enough at a far enough along date in globalization to be meaningful and survive. The further back in time, the more likely for convergence, not divergence. You have things backwards. Trust me.
 
Rather out of the way. The area used to be important when it was used for moving things between China and the markets of European and Islamic states. Sea trade made it rather less important. Not sure what the British would want up there, though I suppose they might support people for the heck of it. Most likely to just form a large buffer zone from the Russians. Suppose there might also be more Chinese influence in the area, and some Emperors or generals later on might think about bringing it in closer, though that is a long shot.

The British wanted it for horses. Much of the early British push into central Asia diplomatically and eventually militarily was to secure a constant supply of high quality horses for the cavalry, first under the East Indian Company and then the UK directly.
 
The first parts are debatable (still wrong, but debatable), that last one is ridiculous and I wish people would stop with the sperm crap, creating a POD, especially a single POD does not reset probability. If Confucious is not born, then a die thrown in Rome 5 mins after the time of his OTL birth WILL BE THE SAME AS OTL, because there is no way for "butterflies" to fly fast enough to cause differences. Every single decay of an atom, and quantum fluctuation will be the same UNLESS YOU CAN PROVE CAUSALITY FROM THE POD. Sick of this quantum and sperm crap being thrown around to justify resetting the clock and making whatever changes of whim the author wants. Pick a freaking POD, and let the story naturally unfold as it should, not where you want it to go; otherwise admit you're just cheating for the sake of fiction. But, if you're like me, and you want to see "how would history logically unfold from this change" then make it as realistic as possible and that means no cheating. But call it cheating and be honest with what you're trying to accomplish.

It's much more difficult to use a much more expansive version of the butterfly effect than the more restrained version. It also lowers peoples interest because things get too different and alien from OTL. People use the more expansive version because they genuinely believe that it's the one that makes more sense. Your histrionics aside, I see 0 evidence that the primary motivation is "cheating".
 
The British wanted it for horses. Much of the early British push into central Asia diplomatically and eventually militarily was to secure a constant supply of high quality horses for the cavalry, first under the East Indian Company and then the UK directly.
Wonder if it would be a bit difficult to get them to India over the various mountains. I assume Russia might have moved into Iran in this world , so Afghanistan would be the best bet.
 
Wonder if it would be a bit difficult to get them to India over the various mountains. I assume Russia might have moved into Iran in this world , so Afghanistan would be the best bet.

It was very difficult, not just because of the terrain but because of the permissions of local rulers needed to travel. One of the first Englishmen in central Asia was William Moorcroft, the EIC's Superintendent of Stud who led expeditions to Tibet and Bukhara in the 1810's and 20's.
 
It was very difficult, not just because of the terrain but because of the permissions of local rulers needed to travel. One of the first Englishmen in central Asia was William Moorcroft, the EIC's Superintendent of Stud who led expeditions to Tibet and Bukhara in the 1810's and 20's.
Indeed. And even with that permission, trying to get back with enough horses for it to be economically feasible... Prime raiding target. I also imagine that many would be hesitant about giving up too many of their horses in cultures focused upon them. Probably would end up like in may other places, where weapons are traded for the goods Europeans want, and then the people doing the selling use it to seize more form their neighbors.
 
It's much more difficult to use a much more expansive version of the butterfly effect than the more restrained version. It also lowers peoples interest because things get too different and alien from OTL. People use the more expansive version because they genuinely believe that it's the one that makes more sense. Your histrionics aside, I see 0 evidence that the primary motivation is "cheating".
Let's not have this turn into a butterfly flame war. There's probably at least 5 threads for that.

As for the thread, the states would probably be Khiva, Bukhara, Turkmenistan, a reunited Kazakhstan, and Kokand. I'm not sure whether or not they would still be monarchies. Probably.

Possible borders:

IMG_3756.jpg
 

PhilippeO

Banned
Russia repeatedly tried to conquer it so it doesn't really count.

??? Why it doesn't count. even if Russia too weak to raid CE; Iran, India, China, and other CE countries would likely raid and attack any CE countries. so instability from attack is constant feature of any monarchy in that region.

Plus its currently in ashes, so from that conclusion all Central Asian states are now wartorn messes.

Current Afghanistan mess only started from Russian invasion in Afghanistan in 1979. That just 40 years, quite short time in long history of country.

you could use Afghan monarchy in 1700-1960 as an crude example of CE kingdom that not conquered by Russia.
 
The first parts are debatable (still wrong, but debatable), that last one is ridiculous and I wish people would stop with the sperm crap, creating a POD, especially a single POD does not reset probability. If Confucious is not born, then a die thrown in Rome 5 mins after the time of his OTL birth WILL BE THE SAME AS OTL, because there is no way for "butterflies" to fly fast enough to cause differences. Every single decay of an atom, and quantum fluctuation will be the same UNLESS YOU CAN PROVE CAUSALITY FROM THE POD. Sick of this quantum and sperm crap being thrown around to justify resetting the clock and making whatever changes of whim the author wants. Pick a freaking POD, and let the story naturally unfold as it should, not where you want it to go; otherwise admit you're just cheating for the sake of fiction. But, if you're like me, and you want to see "how would history logically unfold from this change" then make it as realistic as possible and that means no cheating. But call it cheating and be honest with what you're trying to accomplish.

It isn't crap. It's actual science- if Bob and Alice are having sex, and Bob's on top, gravity works for his ejaculation, and the sperm that manages to sneak past the other ones that already weakened the cell membrane of the oocyte leads to Alice giving birth to Paul. If Alice rolls over just before climax so Alice is on top, gravity is working against Bob's ejaculation and the sperm that manages to sneak past the other ones that already weakened the cell membrane of the oocyte leads to Karen, a baby born with with hypoplastic left heart syndrome, necessitating a heart transplant. In one reality, the procedure succeeds, and Karen later has a brother, Mitchell. In another, a comment from a surgical intern scrubbing in causes the surgeon to pause, and so when she puts in the final stitch it's half a millimeter to the left. A clot forms on the suture, breaks loose, and Karen has a fatal stroke a few hours later. The strain of losing their baby ultimately causes Alice to leave Bob and so Karen's brother Mitchell is never born, either. Instead Alice never remarries and Bob marries Cynthia, with whom he has six kids: Justin, Joann, Jared, James, Jasper, and Janelle.
 
It isn't crap. It's actual science- if Bob and Alice are having sex, and Bob's on top, gravity works for his ejaculation, and the sperm that manages to sneak past the other ones that already weakened the cell membrane of the oocyte leads to Alice giving birth to Paul. If Alice rolls over just before climax so Alice is on top, gravity is working against Bob's ejaculation and the sperm that manages to sneak past the other ones that already weakened the cell membrane of the oocyte leads to Karen, a baby born with with hypoplastic left heart syndrome, necessitating a heart transplant. In one reality, the procedure succeeds, and Karen later has a brother, Mitchell. In another, a comment from a surgical intern scrubbing in causes the surgeon to pause, and so when she puts in the final stitch it's half a millimeter to the left. A clot forms on the suture, breaks loose, and Karen has a fatal stroke a few hours later. The strain of losing their baby ultimately causes Alice to leave Bob and so Karen's brother Mitchell is never born, either. Instead Alice never remarries and Bob marries Cynthia, with whom he has six kids: Justin, Joann, Jared, James, Jasper, and Janelle.
Explain how Confucius not being born in China causes a woman to switch positions from OTL in the Great Lakes region of North America even as late as 5 or 50 years later. There's no way "little ripples" outweigh the huge ripples already in play from OTL to get there and effect something like that. You're extrapolating way too much out of butterflies. Butterflies fly only as fast as the globalization of the time period and do not EVER go faster.
 
Explain how Confucius not being born in China causes a woman to switch positions from OTL in the Great Lakes region of North America even as late as 5 or 50 years later. There's no way "little ripples" outweigh the huge ripples already in play from OTL to get there and effect something like that. You're extrapolating way too much out of butterflies. Butterflies fly only as fast as the globalization of the time period and do not EVER go faster.

One of the partners so much as twitches differently during intercourse, and a different sperm could fertilise the egg. Even if they do everything the same, a different sperm could still fertilise the egg.

Heck, event if exactly the same egg and sperm meet, there's no guarantee that the child would have the same life experiences, or even develop in the same way even if they did.

Some things are inherently chaotic - the meeting of sperm and egg is one of these, the movement of air is another. The weather would diverge fairly quickly, for example.
 
One of the partners so much as twitches differently during intercourse, and a different sperm could fertilise the egg. Even if they do everything the same, a different sperm could still fertilise the egg.

Heck, event if exactly the same egg and sperm meet, there's no guarantee that the child would have the same life experiences, or even develop in the same way even if they did.

Some things are inherently chaotic - the meeting of sperm and egg is one of these, the movement of air is another. The weather would diverge fairly quickly, for example.
You're assuming that probability resets when you make a POD and that's not what should be assumed. A die thrown in Montana in 1805 that is a 5 in OTL will not be affected by a POD change that we make in London 2 days earlier. Butterflies can't fly fast enough in 1805 to affect it. You're assuming something with quantum mechanics that isn't true.
 
Maybe the different sperm and egg meeting affects various atoms in the air which affect other atoms etc... Which leads to different things people do a continent away which leads back to an arrow missing its mark, etc...
 
You're assuming that probability resets when you make a POD and that's not what should be assumed. A die thrown in Montana in 1805 that is a 5 in OTL will not be affected by a POD change that we make in London 2 days earlier. Butterflies can't fly fast enough in 1805 to affect it. You're assuming something with quantum mechanics that isn't true.

You're assuming that the die would even be thrown in the first place.

Or by the same person. Or in a game against the same person.

Or that it would even be in the same location.

I'm not assuming anything to do with quantum mechanics. And probability doesn't "reset" under any circumstance. You are assuming that the exact same circumstance will always happen, when there's no guarantee that the same circumstance would even arise in the first place.
 
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