Might be that a Khanate stays around. The Chinese are unlikely to go into the area though, and the Persians might find the deserts of Turks to be useless to themselves. Maybe the Persians stay around Turkemenistan and the Afghans get the Tajiks and those nearby? A lot of Muslim states of old went over various ethnic groups, but holding together Central Asia could be tricky.One question is, if Russia doesn`t conquer it, does anyone else?
Maybe. I wonder, though, if the British aren`t going to try something.Might be that a Khanate stays around. The Chinese are unlikely to go into the area though, and the Persians might find the deserts of Turks to be useless to themselves. Maybe the Persians stay around Turkemenistan and the Afghans get the Tajiks and those nearby? A lot of Muslim states of old went over various ethnic groups, but holding together Central Asia could be tricky.
Rather out of the way. The area used to be important when it was used for moving things between China and the markets of European and Islamic states. Sea trade made it rather less important. Not sure what the British would want up there, though I suppose they might support people for the heck of it. Most likely to just form a large buffer zone from the Russians. Suppose there might also be more Chinese influence in the area, and some Emperors or generals later on might think about bringing it in closer, though that is a long shot.Maybe. I wonder, though, if the British aren`t going to try something.
How does a non-Russia vacuum filled by Turkic khanates, thereby butterflying away the Great Game between Russia and Britain affect Tibet, Afghanistan, Persia, and European politics in general? The Great Game, emphasized by Afghanistan, influenced a lot of late 19th and early 20th century geopolitics. Does it mean the Great Game is still played, but with Persia and the Ottoman Empire more important? Does this mean Persia is perhaps actually dismantled and the old man of the OE is divided up early in spheres? Is Britain MORE aggressive in Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, and Tibet? As we enter the 1950s does the PRC recognize the khanates or treats them as they treated Tibet and not recognize their independence and simply invades illegally. Does Iran see this area as natural "little sisters" because this was once Iranian populated areas, is Turkey no longer as in OTL the leader of pan-Turkicism if there are independent khanates. How does this effect the Uigurs? Do they maintain their independence or does the PRC crush them as they did OTL?
How are we preventing Russian expansion into Central Asia? A Russia screw or Russia just looking elsewhere? If it's the latter then the status quo probably continues undisturbed, as its within Russia's interest to have a stable and non-threatening southern flank, the Khanates likely still become part of Russia's "Sphere of Influence". If it's the former then it's really hard to place as you're not only trying to fill the void left by Russian expansion, but you're trying to fill the void left by Russia in general.How would Central Asia have developed over the last 200 years had Russia, for whatever reason, avoided conquering and colonizing it?
For instance, would we see much less ethnic nationalism in Central Asia in this TL?
How are we preventing Russian expansion into Central Asia? A Russia screw or Russia just looking elsewhere? If it's the latter then the status quo probably continues undisturbed, as its within Russia's interest to have a stable and non-threatening southern flank, the Khanates likely still become part of Russia's "Sphere of Influence". If it's the former then it's really hard to place as you're not only trying to fill the void left by Russian expansion, but you're trying to fill the void left by Russia in general.
I agree with everything except that a pre-1600 POD means no PRC, you have to show cause and effect. Russia, I am assuming, still has Siberia, Tannu Tavu, and goes on to have Vladivostok and Alaska. Which means the Russo-Japanese War still happen. WWI will still happen, the communists form the Soviet Union; WWII will still happen and China will have their civil war. No Central Asia for Russia doesn't mean squat for any of that history. "Butterflies" isn't a reason, have to show POD change causes A causes B causes C, or else C is as OTL.There's not going to be a PRC with a pre-1600 POD. Yet other points you raise are very relevant. Some thoughts:
-- Britain will, assuming no unexpected bufferflies, still succeed in India, besting France. We may tentatively assume that this happens in roughly the same timeframe.
-- Less of a Russian threat may lead Britain to be more open to the earlier dismantling of the Ottoman Empire-- although if France-Beritish rivalry is a factor, then Britain may want to prop up the Ottomans anyway (just to prevent France from being the main recepient of former Ottoman lands).
-- On the other hand, dismantling Persia is hardly interesting until (and unless) Britain becomes interesting in putting a railroad through southern Persia. Without Russia as a rival in the region, Persia is just not very interesting. If anything, should the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire happen, it may well be an Anglo-Russo-Persian group effort (maybe with austria working alongside them), all to exclude France from the spoils.
-- For the same reasons, extra British aggression in Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, and Tibet seems unlikely. More likely that they'll spend extra available energy on areas that are more profitable. I say again: Chinese concessions.
-- The Central Asian khanate(s) would no doubt be too far away from China's power base to be controlled, just as @pa_dutch points out. If anything, the possibility that one big khanate (khaganate?) arises in the region could see things go the other way: that khaganate could conquer the Uyghur regions with only moderate trouble, and China would not be able to regain effective control of the area. Certainly not if Britain (and/or othher opportunistic European powers) are nibbling away at China in the east...
I agree with everything except that a pre-1600 POD means no PRC, you have to show cause and effect. Russia, I am assuming, still has Siberia, Tannu Tavu, and goes on to have Vladivostok and Alaska. Which means the Russo-Japanese War still happen. WWI will still happen, the communists form the Soviet Union; WWII will still happen and China will have their civil war. No Central Asia for Russia doesn't mean squat for any of that history. "Butterflies" isn't a reason, have to show POD change causes A causes B causes C, or else C is as OTL.
How are we preventing Russian expansion into Central Asia? A Russia screw or Russia just looking elsewhere? If it's the latter then the status quo probably continues undisturbed, as its within Russia's interest to have a stable and non-threatening southern flank, the Khanates likely still become part of Russia's "Sphere of Influence". If it's the former then it's really hard to place as you're not only trying to fill the void left by Russian expansion, but you're trying to fill the void left by Russia in general.
Eh, your scenario begins with hundreds of ripples, but they are outweighed by hundreds of millions of people who are the same and have no contact at all with your ripples, and whose billion descendants are still untouched by your thousands upon thousands, and by the time your ripples reach a million, there are SEVERAL billion people untouched by your million. Unless one of those ripples outdoes a "great man" history event, you're never going to make the ocean see your couple of stones that were thrown effect the tide caused by the moon which is still the same.You may use a line of visible causal relations, if you wish. I too believe in pure causality, but then, unimportant Russian soldier Ivan not dying in Siberian warfare in 1590 means he comes back home to his wife, who in OTL was widowed and married Casimir two years later. She has a son with Ivan here, who never existed in OTL, while the two OTL daughters she had with Casimir never exist. There are hundreds of alt-living and alt-dead people, whose very existence will alter the world around them in millions of ways each day. (Not to mention that Casimir marries Olga from two villages over in this TL, which changes the life of Pjotr, who married hert in OTL... etc.) The ripples are myriad. They are endless. A few generations later, thousands upon thousands of completely different ATL people are alive, while countless OTL people don't exist. They do different things, write different books that inspire different people on the other side of the globe...
No. There will not be a PRC. Events may take the same shape due to peristing historical forces, natural geopolitical interests, cultural trends... but by the twentieth century, with a 1580 POD or so - no matter which POD - there will hardly be a single person in existence who lived at that point in OTL. You'd have to go to distant tribes that went uncontacted to find such a person. All because of cause and effect. No spooky action at a distance, no randomness. Just one thing leading to other things, and each of them doing the same, on and on and on.
Anyway, that's for cause and effect. Regarding Siberia, I'm of the opinion that Siberia is part of Central Asia. Just the northern part of it. That's why I mentioned it, and regions to its east, in my initial post here. I'm reading the scenario here as "Russia stays roughly west of the Ural Mountains".
Anyway, that's for cause and effect. Regarding Siberia, I'm of the opinion that Siberia is part of Central Asia. Just the northern part of it. That's why I mentioned it, and regions to its east, in my initial post here. I'm reading the scenario here as "Russia stays roughly west of the Ural Mountains".
Eh, your scenario begins with hundreds of ripples, but they are outweighed by hundreds of millions of people who are the same and have no contact at all with your ripples, and whose billion descendants are still untouched by your thousands upon thousands, and by the time your ripples reach a million, there are SEVERAL billion people untouched by your million. Unless one of those ripples outdoes a "great man" history event, you're never going to make the ocean see your couple of stones that were thrown effect the tide caused by the moon which is still the same.
I always envisioned Siberia as North Asia, rather than Central Asia.
No Russian expansion into Central Asia = Britain not singling Russia out as its primary threat = Britain not helping modernize the Japanese Navy as it has no use for a check on Russia = no Russo-Japanese War/Russian Victory in the Russo-Japanese War. Everything after is too different for things to return to OTL's path.I agree with everything except that a pre-1600 POD means no PRC, you have to show cause and effect. Russia, I am assuming, still has Siberia, Tannu Tavu, and goes on to have Vladivostok and Alaska. Which means the Russo-Japanese War still happen.