The details of a Palestine partition plan in a no/much smaller Holocaust scenario?

CaliGuy

Banned
Will it though ?
If it's seen as a state under siege (much more than OTL), it could prevent more immigration.
It could; however, some Eastern European Jews might prefer to live in a Jewish state under siege than under anti-Semitic discrimination back home.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, would the Zionists fare better or worse in a war with neighboring Arab countries if they (the Zionists) had more manpower due to less Holocaust deaths in this TL?
 

Wallet

Banned
Have no holocaust but have the British become dependent on middle eastern oil sooner. They see no reason to piss of the Arab states
 
It probably violates the terms of your scenario, but I'm not sure there would be a partition. One thing is that absent WWII at least, Britain may be in a position to hold onto the Mandate for longer. So you may see a joint administration and independence a decade later or so. That gets a lot murkier. Maybe it'd be a partition, or maybe you'd have a federal state or even a perpetual British presence as a protectorate/dependency.
 
Why not this ?
bestworld-png.304132

Why this? This map makes no sense

Yeah--at the very least, the eastern Galilee should also go to Israel:

I would point out that, without the horrors of the Holocaust and WW2, population exchange might still be seen as a viable solution to conflicting nationalisms. Therefore, any proposed partition may include the relocation of Jews and Palestinians into the proposed territories. Relocating the Jewish population of the Galilee towards the coast would help ensure a more concentrated and homogeneous Jewish population, whilst giving the fertile and valuable farmland in the Galilee to the Palestinians would be a good way to compensate the Palestinians, both as a whole and the individuals relocated from the Jewish regions, making a partition easier for them to accept.

With a much smaller Holocaust? I doubt it; after all, the early Nazi years will still produce a lot of Jewish immigration to Palestine.

Not that much. The Jewish population of Germany was a relatively small portion of European Jewry, and a large part of why so many fled to Palestine, was as much due to the difficulty of emigrating to other places like Britain and the US as it was ideological. If the Nazis are defeated in 1940-1941 I imagine a lot of them would move back.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I would point out that, without the horrors of the Holocaust and WW2, population exchange might still be seen as a viable solution to conflicting nationalisms. Therefore, any proposed partition may include the relocation of Jews and Palestinians into the proposed territories. Relocating the Jewish population of the Galilee towards the coast would help ensure a more concentrated and homogeneous Jewish population, whilst giving the fertile and valuable farmland in the Galilee to the Palestinians would be a good way to compensate the Palestinians, both as a whole and the individuals relocated from the Jewish regions, making a partition easier for them to accept.

The Jews might need compensation elsewhere in Palestine if the Palestinian Arabs get the Galilee, though.

Not that much. The Jewish population of Germany was a relatively small portion of European Jewry, and a large part of why so many fled to Palestine, was as much due to the difficulty of emigrating to other places like Britain and the US as it was ideological.

As a percentage, though, the 1930s Jewish immigration to Palestine might have been significant; after all, Palestine's total population wasn't that large back then!

If the Nazis are defeated in 1940-1941 I imagine a lot of them would move back.

I'm not so sure about that; after all, it might be unappealing to move back after you already made a new life for yourself in Palestine and after you saw how your former countrymen generally reacted with indifference to your plight during Nazi times.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Indeed, did most ex-USSR Jews move back to their countries of origin in our TL after the economic situation in countries such as Russia significantly improved (after 2000)? No, they didn't!

Thus, why exactly would it be any different for German Jews in this TL?
 
Indeed, did most ex-USSR Jews move back to their countries of origin in our TL after the economic situation in countries such as Russia significantly improved (after 2000)? No, they didn't!

Thus, why exactly would it be any different for German Jews in this TL?

Well there's the time difference for one. A Nazi Germany that collapses by 1941 would have only been around for less than a decade, whilst the USSR stood for 80 years. I'm also guessing that most of the German Jews who left wouldn't have done it at the very beginning and would still have friends and family in Germany.
 
Assume Germany is defeated in 1941
1. The Jews of Germany and Austria have been crapped on severely since 1933, and there will be an impetus for many of them to leave. More emigres than OTL because no Holocaust
2. The Jews of Czechoslovakia and Poland have had 2-3 years of nastiness. They have seen most of their neighbors revert back to open and nasty antisemitism. A large number of them will want to emigrate (most of whom would have died OTL).
3. Those areas of the Baltic States that fell in to the German sphere after 1939 have seen quite nasty resurgence of antisemitism, again many Jews will decide to look for greener pastures
4. Hungary, Romania, and Italy have all to a greater extent or lesser extent have passed new antisemitic laws between 1930 and 1941. Many of the Jews in these countries will decide emigration is a good idea. With Germany falling in 1941 and no Fall of France Italy never declared war, and Hungary and Romania were only involved after Barbarossa so those laws probably remain in effect.

You now have large numbers of Jews (1-4) who want to move on - where? The western European countries will take a few (maybe) cherry picking scientists and other high value folks. The USA won't take any significant numbers, and will do its best to persuade Latin American countries not to take them (1). I doubt South Africa or Australia will want them, sure they are white but c'mon they are Jews. Like it or not if you want out of Europe the only place for these Jews to go will be Israel.

(1) The US immigration quotas in the 1940s did not apply to western hemisphere countries. The reason the USA/State Department opposed Jews going to Central/South America and the Dominican Republic was once they were there, and became citizens of those countries they could then move on to the USA unimpeded by quotas designed to restrict Jews. This is why even the 700 or so Jews on the SS St. Louis were the subject of State Department efforts, successful, to prevent their landing anywhere, even when they had already obtained visas.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Assume Germany is defeated in 1941
1. The Jews of Germany and Austria have been crapped on severely since 1933, and there will be an impetus for many of them to leave. More emigres than OTL because no Holocaust
2. The Jews of Czechoslovakia and Poland have had 2-3 years of nastiness. They have seen most of their neighbors revert back to open and nasty antisemitism. A large number of them will want to emigrate (most of whom would have died OTL).
3. Those areas of the Baltic States that fell in to the German sphere after 1939 have seen quite nasty resurgence of antisemitism, again many Jews will decide to look for greener pastures
4. Hungary, Romania, and Italy have all to a greater extent or lesser extent have passed new antisemitic laws between 1930 and 1941. Many of the Jews in these countries will decide emigration is a good idea. With Germany falling in 1941 and no Fall of France Italy never declared war, and Hungary and Romania were only involved after Barbarossa so those laws probably remain in effect.

You now have large numbers of Jews (1-4) who want to move on - where? The western European countries will take a few (maybe) cherry picking scientists and other high value folks. The USA won't take any significant numbers, and will do its best to persuade Latin American countries not to take them (1). I doubt South Africa or Australia will want them, sure they are white but c'mon they are Jews. Like it or not if you want out of Europe the only place for these Jews to go will be Israel.

(1) The US immigration quotas in the 1940s did not apply to western hemisphere countries. The reason the USA/State Department opposed Jews going to Central/South America and the Dominican Republic was once they were there, and became citizens of those countries they could then move on to the USA unimpeded by quotas designed to restrict Jews. This is why even the 700 or so Jews on the SS St. Louis were the subject of State Department efforts, successful, to prevent their landing anywhere, even when they had already obtained visas.
Sure, a massive number of Jews would certainly want to move to Palestine in this TL. However, would Britain actually allow them to do this?

Also, who gets to decide whether or not--as well as how exactly--Palestine is partitioned in this TL? The League of Nations? Indeed, would the LON survive in this TL and get this job in place of the UN (since Britain would be unable to reach a good solution to this problem by itself)?
 
The LON is dead as a bag of rocks. It may still exist but after its impotence through the 1930s it will be at most a debating society. I'm pretty sure that the USA like after WWI won't join any "UN" especially since here it was not involved in the war. Britain dumped the whole issue on the UN because it could not solve it, and wanted to get rid of the mess.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The LON is dead as a bag of rocks. It may still exist but after its impotence through the 1930s it will be at most a debating society. I'm pretty sure that the USA like after WWI won't join any "UN" especially since here it was not involved in the war. Britain dumped the whole issue on the UN because it could not solve it, and wanted to get rid of the mess.
Couldn't the LON get a shot in the arm if Nazi Germany is quickly defeated, though?

Also, if the LON is still worthless after the end of WWII in this TL, who exactly will make the decision to partition Palestine in this TL? The British themselves? Or are the Brits simply going to withdraw from Palestine in this TL without any sort of partition and allow the Zionists and the Arabs to fight it out among themselves?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, for the record, I doubt that Britain would be willing to do the job of partitioning Palestine itself in this TL; after all, Britain doesn't appear to be decisive enough to do that.
 
With the Nazis defeated early Britain won't be as exhausted as they were at the end of OTL WW2 (there might not even be a WW2 ITTL when you get down to it), and therefore would be in a much stronger position to hold onto the Mandate and see things through to the end, instead of dropping the partition plan on the nascent UN and washing their hands of the whole matter.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well there's the time difference for one. A Nazi Germany that collapses by 1941 would have only been around for less than a decade, whilst the USSR stood for 80 years.

Very true; however, the former USSR isn't the only country where many Jews immigrated to Israel. For instance, take a look at both Romania and Poland.

I'm also guessing that most of the German Jews who left wouldn't have done it at the very beginning and would still have friends and family in Germany.

They might still have friends and family in Germany; however, this in itself might not be enough to have them themselves move back to Germany.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
With the Nazis defeated early Britain won't be as exhausted as they were at the end of OTL WW2 (there might not even be a WW2 ITTL when you get down to it), and therefore would be in a much stronger position to hold onto the Mandate and see things through to the end, instead of dropping the partition plan on the nascent UN and washing their hands of the whole matter.
What exactly would seeing things through to the end entail? Also, where exactly would this lead to in the end?
 
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