The Democrats, the Republicans and the 1944 presidential election...in Cuba

voting-ballot.jpg

Here is the ballot for the 1944 presidential and congressional election in Cuba. Note that the ABC's symbol could certainly provide ammunition for conspiracy theorists. Also note the PSP's hammer-and-machete "Cubanization" of the Soviet hammer-and-sickle.) Anyway, an obvious point is that just as Carlos Saladrigas Zayas, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Saladrigas_Zayas Batista's chosen successor, was the candidate of a whole coalition of parties (which called themselves the Democratic Socialist Coalition), so the victorious Ramon Grau San Martin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramón_Grau was not the candidate of the Autenticos alone. Rather he was the candidate of the Autenticos *and* the Republican Party.

This Republican Party (not to be confused with an earlier Cuban party of the same name) was the creation of Batista's vice-president, Gustavo Cuervo Rubio, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustavo_Cuervo_Rubio who bolted the Democratic Party (which was part of Batista's coalition) and formed the Republicans when Batista chose Saladrigas over him. Ostensibly, however, Cuervo and his fellow Democrat Guillermo Alonso Pujol, strong anti-communists, broke with Batista over his alliance with the PSP. (Which sounds a bit suspicious, inasmuch as the Batista-Communist alliance dated back to 1938. Still, actually including them in the cabinet, as Batista did in 1942, struck some people as going too far. One of Batista's Communist cabinet members, Carlos Rafael Rodriguez, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Rafael_Rodríguez would later become Castro's vice-president!) Thus, one has to ask whether on balance the PSP's support of Saldrigas helped or hurt him. It not only provided the ostensible rationale for the creation of the Republican party but also influenced US ambassador Spruille Braden to take a strictly neutral stance toward the election--a neutrality which Batista interpreted as hostility. (Braden even admonished members of the American Chamber of Commerce of Cuba "not to contribute even a five-cent piece to a Cuban candidate.") Batista unsuccessfully sought Braden's recall at the end of 1943, whereas Eddy Chibas, then a strong supporter of Grau, praised Braden for his "genuine democratic attitude" and "strict observance of the principle of non-intervention." Guillermo Belt (who was to serve Grau as ambassador in Washington) later asserted that Grau could not have become president "without the de facto approval of the United States."

(Braden assured FDR that Grau was a "changed man" compared to 1933, and that was certainly true, though not necessarily a good thing. Anyway, FDR at least showed a sense of humor when president-elect Grau visited him in Washington in 1944: he greeted Grau by saying "And to think that eleven years ago, I didn't recognize you!")

In any event, the Republicans may have provided Grau with his margin of victory. According to Charles D. Ameringer, *The Cuban Democratic Experience: The Autentico Years, 1944-1952*, p. 17: "Of Grau's votes, 771,599 were recorded in the Autentico column, while 270,223 came from the Republican line. Though the Autenticos insisted repeatedly that they had not modified their program--that they remained committed to 'nationalism, anti-imperialism, and socialism'--the alliance with the Republicans gave them a conservative cover that they had not had in 1940, when Grau received only 42 percent of the vote." Saladrigas got 839,220 votes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_general_election,_1944

So let's say that Cuervo and Pujol had remained loyal to the government coalition, and that Saladrigas had been elected. Saladrigas, the nephew of former president Alfredo Zayas, had been a founder of the anti-Machado terrorist group, the ABC. He was one of those who persuaded the ABC to participate in Cespedes' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Manuel_de_Céspedes_y_Quesada short-lived government after the fall of Machado. In November 1933 he led an unsuccessful revolt against Grau. In 1934 he briefly served as Secretary of Justice under Batista's puppet president Mendieta; when the ABC criticized him for this, he resigned from both the government and the ABC. After Batista was elected president in 1940, Saladrigas became his premier. In the 1950's he was to become Batista's foreign minister. Hugh Thomas' judgment is that "No doubt, had Saladrigas won, as everyone in the government assumed he would, Batista would have continued to play an important role behind the scenes, almost as important a part perhaps as he had played between 1934 and 1940..." (*Cuba: The Pursuit of Freedom*, p. 275) To give an example of how Batista had ruled in those days: in 1936, when President Gomez tried to demonstrate some independence, Batista simply had Congress impeach him and remove him from office...Probably in the mid-1940s, with a more democratic atmosphere, it would be more difficult to do this, but it probably would not be necessary, since I don't see any evidence of any real policy differences between Batista and Saladrigas.

So what would happen? Communist participation in the government and Communist control of the trade unions might persist longer than in OTL but eventually as the Cold War started, the Communists would be ousted. There would still be corruption of course but not necessarily worse than under Grau. And at least one really pernicious feature of the Autentico era would be avoided: government subsidies to "action groups" which had started out as anti-Machado and anti-Batista fighting organizations but had degenerated into gangsterism. (Grau felt that they were "his boys," that he owed them for their support, and that maybe government jobs would tame them...) In 1948, I am not certain who the government coalition's candidate will be, but it is possible that Grau and the Autenticos will win on their third try--unlike OTL they might have the support (at least tacit) of the PSP due to the fact that the crackdown on the Communists will have come under a pro-Batista regime.
 
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