I wouldn't count on Mehmet staying around for too long. Hes getting old, and so is his son. And we all know who comes after Ibrahim...
The Death Of The Sick Man: An Middle Eastern/Ottoman Timeline
- Thread starter Nassirisimo
- Start date
France has had a rather successful run recently. Their allies dominate the eastern Mediterranean and they themselves are expanding colonially. I think the British are more concerned about making sure the French can't dominate the Mediterranean then staying on their good side. The guarantee was aimed more at deflecting Aghayid aggression then French aggression anyway, for now.
In OTL, the European powers are the only thing that stopped Egypt from conquering Constantinople/Istanbul (eastern question), in this TL, France stalls them enough for Egypt to win. Or at least that's what I got out of it.
Correct. They are also able to secure the Balkans easier due to the fact that Morea is a part of Mehmet Ali's domains as opposed to being Greek as it was OTL.
Cuāuhtemōc, Nassirisimo
That is likely to make matters a lot worse! Any land they take from local Muslims, who are a sizeable faction, will upset them. Any land they take from the Christians will really upset them and at least some of the neighbouring Christian states.
Also if Ali is both lowering taxes and giving big trade concessions to the French then unless he reduces his expenditure a lot he is going to run out of money very soon. Since I think the vast bulk of his expenditure at that time was his army and he has a lot of unsettled provinces and at least one hostile neighbour this does not bode well. I can see the new empire becoming deeply indebted a lot sooner than either Egypt or the Ottomans did OTL.
Steve
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
You make a fair point. It's likely to result to many interesting things happening in the Aghayid Sultanate. One thing: why hasn't Mehmet Ali Pasha claimed the title of Caliph?
Steve
The Aghayid Sultanate is built on very shaky foundations. For now, Europe is ignorant of this, seeing them strictly as being a more stable force then the Ottomans because they had beaten them. For now, Mehmed Ali's empire looks like it has a relatively bright future but the debt, the lack of any real love for the regime and Ibrahim's less then brilliant son are all going to give his empire alot more trouble then the Ottomans faced OTL.
Thats not to say they don't have a few advantages though. They have Egypt, which can be used as a bit of a cash cow. Austria is much more likely to support the Aghayids in future conflicts, as Russia's incitement of the South Slavs and Orthodox Christians threatens them as much as it threatens the Aghayids.
It should also be taken into account that not everyone in France and Britain is happy about the abandoment of the Greek rebels. Any rebellions started by the Greeks may recieve western support. They arn't likely to revolt while Ibrahim is still around though.
The Aghayid Sultanate is built on very shaky foundations. For now, Europe is ignorant of this, seeing them strictly as being a more stable force then the Ottomans because they had beaten them. For now, Mehmed Ali's empire looks like it has a relatively bright future but the debt, the lack of any real love for the regime and Ibrahim's less then brilliant son are all going to give his empire alot more trouble then the Ottomans faced OTL.
Thats not to say they don't have a few advantages though. They have Egypt, which can be used as a bit of a cash cow. Austria is much more likely to support the Aghayids in future conflicts, as Russia's incitement of the South Slavs and Orthodox Christians threatens them as much as it threatens the Aghayids.
It should also be taken into account that not everyone in France and Britain is happy about the abandoment of the Greek rebels. Any rebellions started by the Greeks may recieve western support. They arn't likely to revolt while Ibrahim is still around though.
A oversight on my part. Fixed. It wouldn't make alot of sense for Mehmet to take nearly the entire old Ottoman empire and leave them stateless without taking the Caliphate for himself as well.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
I hope I don't come off as demanding but can we expect an update on the timeline soon? This is an extremely unique concept (to my knowledge) and I hope you pursue it right towards the present. 
Hopefully, i'll have one finished for some time tommorow, i've been busy over the last few days with my birthday and such so it has slowed down progress a bit.I hope I don't come off as demanding but can we expect an update on the timeline soon? This is an extremely unique concept (to my knowledge) and I hope you pursue it right towards the present.
Chapter 3 - Revolution in Europe
French revolutionaries in Paris, before the Russian intervention.
By the late 1840’s, Europe had settled down after the upset of events in the Near east. However, the new realities that had formed were more fragile then they appeared. There was increasing dissention amongst the middle and lower classes of Europe. Pamphlets were handed out in many places decrying the authoritarianism of the absolute monarchies of Europe, and calling for the freedom of people and nations. In March 1848, there was armed revolution on the island of Sicily. Within 5 months, a lot of European countries had gone under the same fate, with the exceptions of Britain, the Aghayid Empire and most importantly, Russia.
In France, the revolutionaries called for the overthrow of the unpopular Bourbon monarch, and the institution of a new republic. Hungary declared independence from Austria. However, the Russian monarch, Nicholas I, was set against these revolutionaries, and in November, he sent 300,000 Russian troops to assist Austria against the Hungarian revolutionaries. France, increasingly beset by republican revolutionaries, requested similar aid, and in January 1849, 200,000 Russian troops moved across Germany (with Prussian blessing) to save the beleaguered Louis Philippe.
In Prussia itself, King Wilhelm IV, sought to placate the revolutionaries with compromise. A limited Constitution was set in place, which guaranteed a vote for every adult male (though the poor man’s vote would be worth less than the rich man’s vote), freedom of speech and assembly and the right to set up any political party with the exception of those that called for the abolishment of the monarch. The king also made a few token speeches about the need for German unity, but the call of pan-German revolutionaries for help were ignored by Wilhelm, and it soon became apparent that the Parliament set up by Wilhelm didn’t significantly limit his power.
The Aghayids had been relatively immune from this unrest, though not due to any love for the regime. There were a few minor rebellions amongst Balkan Christians, but they were easily supressed. It was thought that the revolutions had never gained much traction there because of the lack of integration with the rest of Europe and the lack of a middle class. In one of his last acts as Sultan, Mehmet Ali abolished a lot of the Capitulations that had been granted to the French in recent years, taking advantage of their apparent weakness. He died on the 18th of February 1849. His 59 year old son, Ibrahim took the throne. The succession went relatively smoothly, but there was no great love for this new king either. Ibrahim inherited a state becoming increasingly indebted and falling behind Europe technologically (there were almost no modern factories in the empire).
Ibrahim set about changing this, by making it easier for foreign capitalists to set up ventures in the Empire, as well as setting up some state owned factories, which were mostly textile factories in Egypt and Thrace. These state owned ventures proved to be quite profitable, but the policy of loosening foreign investment just encouraged cheap resource extraction by foreign capitalists rather than industrial development, and this policy was quietly dropped in 1855.
In Britain, there were increasingly worried voices muttering about the Russians. They had won the respect and thanks of many regimes in Europe for their role in supressing the revolutions in many countries. Their army had dealt with the revolutionaries rather easily and there was a lot of confidence amongst the Russian ruling classes themselves in Nicholas. He began looking southwards once again into the Balkans, seeking to make good of his title “defender of the Orthodox and Slavs” which made their increasingly nervous Balkan neighbours the Hapsburgs and Aghayids wary of any Russian moves in the region. Britain was also opposed to any strengthening of Russia in the Balkans and would likely intervene if the Russians were getting too powerful.
French revolutionaries in Paris, before the Russian intervention.
By the late 1840’s, Europe had settled down after the upset of events in the Near east. However, the new realities that had formed were more fragile then they appeared. There was increasing dissention amongst the middle and lower classes of Europe. Pamphlets were handed out in many places decrying the authoritarianism of the absolute monarchies of Europe, and calling for the freedom of people and nations. In March 1848, there was armed revolution on the island of Sicily. Within 5 months, a lot of European countries had gone under the same fate, with the exceptions of Britain, the Aghayid Empire and most importantly, Russia.
In France, the revolutionaries called for the overthrow of the unpopular Bourbon monarch, and the institution of a new republic. Hungary declared independence from Austria. However, the Russian monarch, Nicholas I, was set against these revolutionaries, and in November, he sent 300,000 Russian troops to assist Austria against the Hungarian revolutionaries. France, increasingly beset by republican revolutionaries, requested similar aid, and in January 1849, 200,000 Russian troops moved across Germany (with Prussian blessing) to save the beleaguered Louis Philippe.
In Prussia itself, King Wilhelm IV, sought to placate the revolutionaries with compromise. A limited Constitution was set in place, which guaranteed a vote for every adult male (though the poor man’s vote would be worth less than the rich man’s vote), freedom of speech and assembly and the right to set up any political party with the exception of those that called for the abolishment of the monarch. The king also made a few token speeches about the need for German unity, but the call of pan-German revolutionaries for help were ignored by Wilhelm, and it soon became apparent that the Parliament set up by Wilhelm didn’t significantly limit his power.
The Aghayids had been relatively immune from this unrest, though not due to any love for the regime. There were a few minor rebellions amongst Balkan Christians, but they were easily supressed. It was thought that the revolutions had never gained much traction there because of the lack of integration with the rest of Europe and the lack of a middle class. In one of his last acts as Sultan, Mehmet Ali abolished a lot of the Capitulations that had been granted to the French in recent years, taking advantage of their apparent weakness. He died on the 18th of February 1849. His 59 year old son, Ibrahim took the throne. The succession went relatively smoothly, but there was no great love for this new king either. Ibrahim inherited a state becoming increasingly indebted and falling behind Europe technologically (there were almost no modern factories in the empire).
Ibrahim set about changing this, by making it easier for foreign capitalists to set up ventures in the Empire, as well as setting up some state owned factories, which were mostly textile factories in Egypt and Thrace. These state owned ventures proved to be quite profitable, but the policy of loosening foreign investment just encouraged cheap resource extraction by foreign capitalists rather than industrial development, and this policy was quietly dropped in 1855.
In Britain, there were increasingly worried voices muttering about the Russians. They had won the respect and thanks of many regimes in Europe for their role in supressing the revolutions in many countries. Their army had dealt with the revolutionaries rather easily and there was a lot of confidence amongst the Russian ruling classes themselves in Nicholas. He began looking southwards once again into the Balkans, seeking to make good of his title “defender of the Orthodox and Slavs” which made their increasingly nervous Balkan neighbours the Hapsburgs and Aghayids wary of any Russian moves in the region. Britain was also opposed to any strengthening of Russia in the Balkans and would likely intervene if the Russians were getting too powerful.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
I see you gave some foreshadowings of an TTL Crimean War conflict, or at least I think you did. I look forward to the next update which I'm guessing will have Russia declaring war on the Aghayid Empire and Britain coming to the latter's aide against Russian military aggression.
Nassirisimo
I wonder if Ali made a serious mistake by abolishing the Capitulations as that alienates the French who were his main allies. It could be that as Cuāuhtemōc suggests Britain will feel obliged to support the Aghayids to prevent the Russians getting too powerful but they may lack the support of the French who OTL supplied the bulk of the European forces. Hence it might be a longer struggle, presuming no other butterflies.
Steve
I wonder if Ali made a serious mistake by abolishing the Capitulations as that alienates the French who were his main allies. It could be that as Cuāuhtemōc suggests Britain will feel obliged to support the Aghayids to prevent the Russians getting too powerful but they may lack the support of the French who OTL supplied the bulk of the European forces. Hence it might be a longer struggle, presuming no other butterflies.
Steve
If there is a war between the Aghayids and the Russians (not saying there will be, just that there might be), the French are definatly not coming to the aid of the Aghayids. They are still grateful to the Russians for their assistance against revolutionaries, and whatever sympathy they felt for they Aghayids is now replaced by anger that they were dropped quickly during a time of weakness.
The Russians meanwhile are in a very good position at the moment. Their armies have been victorious in preserving the status quo in Europe and have the gratitude of most major countries, though Austria is becoming increasingly suspicious about Russian ambitions in the Balkans.
The Russians meanwhile are in a very good position at the moment. Their armies have been victorious in preserving the status quo in Europe and have the gratitude of most major countries, though Austria is becoming increasingly suspicious about Russian ambitions in the Balkans.
What about the italian first war of independence? Going as OTL? The Russian intervention on France make the King of Sardinia limit the scope of the intervention on just acquiring Lombardy and immediatly get on the negotiations table?
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Could we see France later join Russia against the British and their Aghayid allies?