The Death of Russia - TL

[Ming777]

While thats understandable I think its better for the TL to follow what makes sense than what turns people off, like you said it is already dystopic so I see no reason to hold back on that wheter we can take it or not

I do however think your reasoning in the second paragraph makes sense, like you said, a lot of those nukes were indeed old and unrepaired

The issue though is that the TL already had addressed that(the malfunctioning missiles failing to launch and blowing up in the silos) and the over a hundred ones that did make it were the functional ones

I mean, depending on how many nukes the US just launched over North American airspace, many of those warheads needed to get past what is almost a wall of nuclear explosions.

PS: Given the TL diverged in 1993, and the nuclear exchange was on April 10, 1996, there is about two and a half years for the world to scramble in preparation for potential nuclear armageddon.

and those earlier malfunctions were when the ICBMs were still a complete missile (stages+warheads). Not necessarily accounting for the failures of the warheads themselves.

 

[theflyingmongoose]

I mean, depending on how many nukes the US just launched over North American airspace, many of those warheads needed to get past what is almost a wall of nuclear explosions.

PS: Given the TL diverged in 1993, and the nuclear exchange was on April 10, 1996, there is about two and a half years for the world to scramble in preparation for potential nuclear armageddon.

and those earlier malfunctions were when the ICBMs were still a complete missile (stages+warheads). Not necessarily accounting for the failures of the warheads themselves.

Yeah, I think people are underestimating how much military advancement could be made when you are potentially at a threat level similar to the height of the Cold War instead of right in the middle of Pax Americana.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

For those who've been victimized by Western imperialism and foreign policy in the past and present, the current political climate is going to be much more difficult to speak out on. And it's going to create some serious resentment.

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

I don't know if @Sorairo can approve changes to add fan-made writings that can be thrademarked. Can I write the fan-made stories or news reports?

 

[Geon]

[Looks at target list again] --- Fort Knox --- okay, there goes the nation's gold reserve. Now, we are about to have an economic depression that will make the 30's look like a walk in the park!

 

[Whiteshore]

[Looks at target list again] --- Fort Knox --- okay, there goes the nation's gold reserve. Now, we are about to have an economic depression that will make the 30's look like a walk in the park!

The Nashists truly brought the world economy down with them.

 

[Kaiko]

I do like seeing how media is changed, how the themes change, or how it is interpreted differently ITTL due to the Second Russian Civil War and now with April 10th.

Fallout was in development IOTL since 1994 and released in 1997.

If Fallout does still come out, which it might not considering the Second Great Depression going on and people thinking that a game about the aftermath of a nuclear apocalypse is "too soon", then I could see the events of April 10th having a strong influence on the series.

Command & Conquer: Red Alert also comes to mind since the Soviet Union had a large presence in the game.

 

[Bbone91]

[Looks at target list again] --- Fort Knox --- okay, there goes the nation's gold reserve. Now, we are about to have an economic depression that will make the 30's look like a walk in the park!

I’m imagining that the nations reserves were probably moved to a different place for safety.

 

[West]

I’m imagining that the nations reserves were probably moved to a different place for safety.

Even if it was nuked the gold is most likely fine just irradiatied for awhile

 

[AK47Productions]

[Looks at target list again] --- Fort Knox --- okay, there goes the nation's gold reserve. Now, we are about to have an economic depression that will make the 30's look like a walk in the park!

That vault is miles underground so even if a Russian nuke hit, the gold and other valuables should be safe. Not to mention that a lot of important artifacts and gold were likely moved somewhere like the Cheyenne Mountain Complex by 4/10.

 

[Whiteshore]

Even if it was nuked the gold is most likely fine just irradiatied for awhile

Though the issue is retrieving the gold from the vaults.

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

I do like seeing how media is changed, how the themes change, or how it is interpreted differently ITTL due to the Second Russian Civil War and now with April 10th.

Fallout was in development IOTL since 1994 and released in 1997.

If Fallout does still come out, which it might not considering the Second Great Depression going on and people thinking that a game about the aftermath of a nuclear apocalypse is "too soon", then I could see the events of April 10th having a strong influence on the series.

Command & Conquer: Red Alert also comes to mind since the Soviet Union had a large presence in the game.

And if the TL reached into the 2000s, the storyline of the Grand Theft Auto will be changed and don't forget the Tom Clancy series, 007, and Mission Impossible films which will be influenced by the horrifying events of the Second Russian Civil War.

 

[Sorairo]

- Immola was an important military airfield in World War II, but after the war it has seen little use. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the airfield is only 10 kilometres from the border.
- Kemi likely refers to the Kemi-Tornio Airport. Other possible targets could be the railway station or the highway bridge over the Kemi river.
- Utti is probably the most logical of all the Finnish targets, a proper military air base and a large military garrison.
- Kymi is a great big question mark as not only did this rural municipality cease to exist in 1977, there really isn't anything worth bombing in there.
- Nothing worth bombing besides the regional airport in Ivalo.

To me, it seems that the targeting list is related to the Finnish World War II-era military airfields. I would go with this presumption because of targets like Immola and Kymi.

Thank you for informing me - the list I was reading said it referred to Cold War bases. I will replace Ivalo, Kymi and Immola with Upinniemi, Rovaniemi and Dragsvik.

I'll also somewhat reduce the interception rate.

 

[Tertius711]

April 10th will go down as the single most infamous day in history. There’s not a soul in the world that won’t know what that date means.

The ramifications of this, politically, socially, culturally, militarily, economically, they are all insane.

In Europe I foresee that Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltic states will lay claim to whatever remnants they want from the pieces. Not even to populate them yet, just claim them for the post fallout era. Belarus and Ukraine are also likely to join NATO along with Latvia and Estonia.

Meanwhile China’s grip on Central Asia now is unchallenged.

Economically I can foresee a Great Recession, basically the Asian Financial Crisis and ‘08 at once. But I don’t think it will be a second Great Depression. The Soviet Union was not very integrated into the world economy and Russia had no time to become so before it blew up.

It will be dark, it will be grim and brutal, but the world will recover.

Now I’m left terrified of what that bastard bin Laden is going to do with his remaining nukes.

 

[Sorairo]

Economically I can foresee a Great Recession, basically the Asian Financial Crisis and ‘08 at once. But I don’t think it will be a second Great Depression. The Soviet Union was not very integrated into the world economy and Russia had no time to become so before it blew up.

Russia's vanishing from the world economy was only part of the picture. The lingering terror of nuclear war emptied the cities even back in 1994 - this triggered an early collapse in the property market as millions tried to move to safer pastures. The overall uncertainty tanked the economy while the war continued and ebbed, meaning the economy never found its footing. The resulting uncertainty also kick-started the Asian financial crisis early as well, leading to a deep economic wound.

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

Russia's vanishing from the world economy was only part of the picture. The lingering terror of nuclear war emptied the cities even back in 1994 - this triggered an early collapse in the property market as millions tried to move to safer pastures. The overall uncertainty tanked the economy and as the war continued and ebbed, meaning the economy never found its footing. The resulting uncertainty also kick-started the Asian financial crisis early as well, leading to a deep economic wound.

Of course, there will be implications which led to protests in Jakarta that would mean an early resignation of Suharto and a new elections. Things could or can get worse in my home country (the Philippines) that would lead to occurrence of daily protests which means no Erap Estrada being elected.

 

[Tertius711]

Russia's vanishing from the world economy was only part of the picture. The lingering terror of nuclear war emptied the cities even back in 1994 - this triggered an early collapse in the property market as millions tried to move to safer pastures. The overall uncertainty tanked the economy and as the war continued and ebbed, meaning the economy never found its footing. The resulting uncertainty also kick-started the Asian financial crisis early as well, leading to a deep economic wound.

The 90s will be a dark era then. However with all these economic crises triggered early, it is possible that the world will have recovered by say 2010s

This also entirely averts the very joyous and overconfident mood the US was in during the 90s. Feeling so high and mighty as the last superpower and acting bellicosely.

I was about to say that might avert the Iraq War but you know what. No. Bin Laden’s nuclear terrorism will see the US move, not with a bellicose and brash overreaction but rather a cold and calculated vengeance.

Dependint on how this all goes, I can see any single state with any possible connection to bin Laden or nuclear terrorism or blackmail is gonna get jumped by not just the US but everyone.

In a very slim silver lining, April 10th has not broken the nuclear taboo. It has only reinforced it for all.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Russia's vanishing from the world economy was only part of the picture. The lingering terror of nuclear war emptied the cities even back in 1994 - this triggered an early collapse in the property market as millions tried to move to safer pastures. The overall uncertainty tanked the economy while the war continued and ebbed, meaning the economy never found its footing. The resulting uncertainty also kick-started the Asian financial crisis early as well, leading to a deep economic wound.

I wonder if any mass scale protests will even be possible considering the current political environment. States have a convenient excuse to crackdown on dissent here.

Dependint on how this all goes, I can see any single state with any possible connection to bin Laden or nuclear terrorism or blackmail is gonna get jumped by not just the US but everyone.

The Bin Laden family is going to be so screwed in this TL. And not to mention all the Gulf States will be scared shitless into ending religious fundamentalism which puts the question of Salafism and Wahhabism into question.

 

[Lemonfish]

Not to mention that a lot of important artifacts and gold were likely moved somewhere like the Cheyenne Mountain Complex by 4/10.

Uhm...about that...

The destroyed targets were:

Canada: Halifax, Edmonton, Borden, Kingston
United States: Anchorage, Fort Benning, Fort Hood, Fort Bragg, Fort Bliss, Fort Campbell, Fort Stewart, Fort Knox, Cheyenne NORAD base (twice), Camp David, White Sands Missile range, Rocky Flats Plant, Oak Ridge

Still, the complex is explicitly built for this scenario, so they should come out relatively fine.

 

[TheMann]

I wonder if any mass scale protests will even be possible considering the current political environment. States have a convenient excuse to crackdown on dissent here.

Quite possible, but it depends on the nation. Most of the NATO world is probably not going to undertake such actions as they would be unnecessary. China? A certainty, and you can bet every nickel that in this universe after what happened in Russia and their occupation of North Korea that both Europe and North America are going to get VERY bellicose with China, plus the need to rebuild the damage done and reconstruct their economies is going to kill China's economic rise (and India's too, as well as much of the growing third world) absolutely stone dead. Then add in the (likely) serious problems with nuclear fallout and contaminated foodstuffs and you see that China is going to have a very rough later 1990s and 2000s. I see the Communist Party as it is now trying to hang on, but after a decade of food shortages and a angry, selfish West leaning on Beijing every chance they got the PRC in its current form is going to have hard days ahead, easily the worst since the Cultural Revolution.

The Bin Laden family is going to be so screwed in this TL. And not to mention all the Gulf States will be scared shitless into ending religious fundamentalism which puts the question of Salafism and Wahhabism into question.

Once somebody finds out Bin Laden was responsible for that nuke in Stalingrad, he's screwed. For that matter, Islamic fundamentalism here is utterly screwed - the Middle Eastern states (outside of Israel of course) are now certainly looking at having an angry, bellicose West ordering them around and making it clear what will happen if they don't do as their told. Think what's happened in Iran and now extrapolate that across the entire region. Pakistan is in particular trouble - their nuclear program is basically complete in April 1996, and they won't give it up with nuclear-armed India next door no matter what concessions are made, but the world is probably also going to use a lot more stick than carrot now owing to the damage done by the War and the multiple monstrous humanitarian crises that now exist. if they are lucky, they end up cutting enough deals with China and others to head off India's almost-certain disdain for them, but their ability to have much influence in the West is now gone, and attempting to do things like support the Taliban are in this universe for the Pakistanis risking national death.