Porfirio Díaz, President of Mexico b.1830 - d.1908
The death of Porfirio Díaz marked the end of an era for Mexico, and guaranteed that the election of 1910 would be one for the history books. As opposed to the elections that marked the Porfiriato, 1910 would see legitimate, and substantial, opposition movements brought about by Díaz's interview with James Creelman, and his death a few months later. In the interview, Díaz himself said "I have waited patiently for the day when the people of the Mexican Republic would be prepared to choose and change their government at every election without danger of armed revolutions and without injury to the national credit or interference with national progress. I believe that day has come."
It had the effect of galvanizing movements within Mexico, notably one centered around General Bernardo Reyes, the governor of Nuevo León, and former Minister of War. Reyes was seen as a moderate reformer with the support of the military, many governors, the upper class, especially those in the north and west of the country. Reyes was someone who was a through and through Porfiristo, but also someone who would challenge the Científicos, a group of technocrats who formed the inner circle of the Díaz regime. Their popularity had waned after the economic hits in 1907-08, while Reyes' stock rose greatly even with his less than enthusiastic support for his own movement.
Even when it became clear that Díaz had no intention of not running for reelection, Reyes supporters saw him as a good replacement for the current vice president, Ramón Corral. Corral was much more unpopular than Reyes, and even some of the reelection organizations had trouble working up enthusiasm for the former governor of Sonora and the Federal District. Considered to be a part of the Científicos, even others often associated with the group wished to see him gone. For them the best replacement was José Yves Limantour, the Finance Minister, and an enemy of Reyes going back to the latter's time as Minister of War.
But Díaz, not trusting of Reyes and the movement backing him, and seeing Limantour as far too valuable in his current position, seemed likely to stick with Corral. It hardly mattered however, as Díaz would die of a heart attack in October, mere hours after "humbly" agreeing to sacrificing his personal desires and run for yet another term as President. That Díaz had died was not a shock in and of itself. The "foremost man in the Americas" was not exactly a young man after all. But newspapers across the world still proclaimed their shock and sympathy for the man they saw as one of the great nation builders of the era, and many within the country could hardly believe that he was gone. Díaz had been a fixture for decades, entire generations had come into adulthood knowing no other time than when he was running things. For many the question was, what would happen next?
The man who had to answer that question was without a doubt the most shocked man in the nation, Ramón Corral, who was now president. Disliked by virtually every group, the new president found himself almost immediately in an untenable position. He could run for reelection, but to do so would be suicide. As 1908 turned into 1909, support for Reyes only increased. The General might have been willing to acquiesce to Díaz, but to Corral and the Científicos? Not likely.
He did however hesitate. Bernardo Reyes was a product of the Porfiriato, and without Díaz everyone was in uncharted waters. Unsure of what to do and not particularly enamored with popular movements, even the one built up around him, Reyes seemed to flounder for a time before coming out strong against the Científicos. His hesitation lead to some of his support splintering away to join a movement led by a short vegan fellow with a penchant for consulting Ouija Boards.
Francisco Madero had previously had some success in the political world, and belonged to one of the richest families in the entire country. An embarrassment to the Madero patriarch, Evaristo, who had strong ties to the Científicos, Francisco had entered the spotlight with a book on the 1910 election published in 1908. In it he called for the Mexican people to not re-elect Díaz. A much more radical figure than Reyes, he never came close to enjoying the same support as the General, but not for lack of trying. Madero made great strides in his home state of Coahuila, and other liberal bastions, but a strong Reyes showing put a ceiling on how many people he could attract. Eventually Madero went bankrupt, and had sold off most of his property to stay afloat. Still, though he only achieved limited support in the election, Madero and his writings would have a profound effect on the pro-democracy movements that would gain far more popularity after the First World War.
Over the course of 1909 numerous clubs, demonstrations, and newspapers would support Reyes, particularly in the north of the country. Though he himself had taken a backseat to the movement that was built up around him, his knack for organization, and strong financial backing gave him an edge over would be challengers like Madero. The broad support that Reyes enjoyed versus the unpopularity of Corral, and the lack of any names that could be put on a ticket to oppose him, put the Científicos in a bind. Such a broad base was almost certain to splinter, having everything from conservatives opposed to the technocrats to liberals who may have thought that Reyes was more of a reformer than he truly was. But for the moment it all but guaranteed a Reyes victory. From the end of 08 through mid-1909 serious attempts were made to stop the Reyista's, such as reassigning Reyes supporters in the military to Quintana Roo To defraud the election in their favor of anyone else was to invite a military uprising and popular revolt, as was virtually every other action they could conceivably take. But that did mean that Corral and Co. could hurt Reyes.
Negotiating a comfortable retirement was a far nicer than dying and plunging the country into a pointless bout of bloodshed however, and this was the option taken by most.
That didn't mean there wouldn't be blood in the streets by the time Reyes took up residence in Chapultepec Castle however.
Not by a long shot.
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HI THERE
Long time lurker, new time writer!
I'm Zulu, and this is my attempt at a "Mexico avoids the Revolution" timeline where with a POD of Díaz dying in 1908, the revolution is avoided.
Well.
Maybe.
There are some things that can't be avoided because there are still quite a few problems that aren't magically solved, so I wouldn't call this an outright Mexico Wank at this stage. But the confluence of troubles that lead to such a long lasting period of conflict, and devastation are avoided at the very least.
My general game plan right now is to take the TL up through 1930 as a sort of rough draft, with a few fluffier bits that might go further than that. I'm really interested in doing things related to the cinema, and music of the period, as well as auto racing and naval matters, so I'll probably be doing more than a few tangents on some of those to keep from getting bored.
I've mostly got google books as my source, and some Alan Knight works. Thankfully there quite a few primary sources that are out of copyright and cover most of the time period, so hopefully with my second draft I'll also be able to dive into some hard stats. But for now, my main goal is to simply establish a general timeline.
So I hope people enjoy this! And of course any and all feedback is welcome, I know my spelling and grammar aren't the best. And that's not even touching on how terrible my Spanish is.
