The Death of Nikolai II

Xen

Banned
This is a rough draft of something I am working on, I hope it gets more attention than my last two posts which have yet to have a post :confused::(
I will even include a map of Europe, but let me know what you think of the rough draft

The Event
-Tsar Nicholas II is assassinated in St Petersburg in April 1904, when a bomb was thrown at his motorcar. Though Nicholas II wasn’t killed in the explosion, the driver lost control of the vehicle trying to get away from the assassin resulting in the death of Nicholas


Aftershocks
-Nicholas’ wife Alexandra who is several months pregnant goes into a state of shock after receiving the news, shortly afterwards she goes into labor, and delivers a premature baby boy, Alexei. Alexei dies within minutes of being born.
-Nicholas’ younger brother Michael is crowned Michael II
-Russo-Japanese War ends with Russia’s defeat, rocked by revolution, Russia chooses to negotiate rather than continue fighting
-Russia recognizes Korea to be in Japan’s sphere of influence, and signs over its lease of Port Arthur, and cedes control of Sakhalin Island in its entirety.
-The 1905 Revolution is put down violently by the Tsar’s guards
-Tsar Michael II marries Princess Thyra of Denmark in 1906
-After two miscarriages, Thyra gives birth to Grand Duchess Anna in 1910

The Modernization of China
-Empress Dowager Cixi dies unexpectedly in 1906
-Yuan Shiki plots to poison Guangxu Emperor, and fails he is executed for treason
-China undergoes a period of modernization within the traditional framework of the Meiji
-Anti-modernization protests in China crushed by Imperial Regional Armies, leaders are arrested and imprisoned or executed
-Long Yu Empress is poisoned and dies
-Guangxu has an heir with a consort in 1911, “securing” China’s future

World War I
-The Balkan War expands into the First World War when Michael II sides with the Greek, Serbian, and Bulgarian Alliance against the Ottoman Empire
-The war expands into Austria-Hungary when a pro-Serbian rebellion is squashed in Sarajevo; Serbia is accused of supplying the rebels with weapons
-Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, Russia declares war on Austria-Hungary, Germany declares war on Russia, and France declares war on Germany
-Germany invades Belgium, Britain declares war on Germany
-Italy declares war on Austria-Hungary
-The United States declares neutrality in European Conflict
-Most nations claim to expect victory by Easter
-War lasts from late 1912 to mid 1916, every bit as bloody and horrific as OTL WWI
-Palace Coup in Russia replaces Michael II with his cousin Grand Duke Cyril
-Michael II, his wife Thyra and daughter Anna flee to Denmark
-Russia bows out of the war in late 1915 to deal with internal unrest, signing the humiliating Treaty of Stockholm
-War ends with neither side claiming victory

The Philadelphia Peace Treaty
-Poland and Lithuania establish an independent sovereign union as a Republic
-Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia forced to recognize the pre-war borders with the Ottoman Empire
-Greece abandons the Megali Idea
-Ottoman Empire forfeits its rule of Egypt, Cyprus, Palestine, Hejaz, Lebanon and Basra
-Independent Republic of Armenia established as a protectorate of the United States
-Germany withdrawals from Belgium
-The Republic of Alsace-Lorraine established as a buffer state between Germany and France
-Independent Ukrainian Republic established
-Republics established in Latvia, Estonia and Finland
-Plebiscites to be held in Tyrol and Trieste within six months on the issue of remaining with Austria-Hungary or joining Italy
-Germany acknowledges the loss of its African and Pacific colonies to the British and Japanese Empires

Post War Years:
-Russian Revolution 1915-1917
-Japan presents its 21 demands to the Empire of China
-Tyrol and Trieste votes to join the Kingdom of Italy
-Establishment of Far Eastern Republic and Sakha Republic as Japanese Protectorate’s
-Japanese annexation of Russian Pacific Coast
-Austria-Hungary dissolves with Hungary declaring its independence
-Establishment of the Hungarian Confederacy
-Union between the Hapsburg Empire and Germany
-End of Russian Revolution with Tsar Cyril and his conservative allies emerging victorious
-Soviet Republic of Alsace-Lorraine established as the worlds first communist state
-Anti-British uprising in Ireland ruthlessly crushed by battle hardened British Army
-Philippe Petain becomes President of the French Third Republic
-Severe Economic crisis in the United Kingdom, Italy, Bulgaria and Second Reich, Depression in Russia, France, Hungary, Poland, Serbia, Greece and the Ukraine
-Explosive dynamic economy in the United States draws many immigrants from war torn Europe
-Anti-Semitic pogroms in Russia drive 75% of its Jewish Population out of the country within ten years of Treaty of Stockholm, most settle in the US. Canada, Argentina, Palestine and South Africa are also popular destinations.
-Japan starts moving toward militarism

New World Order by Nation
United Kingdom
-The United Kingdom retains Ireland
-Palestine, Basra, Kenya and Egypt become part of the British Empire
-German New Guinea becomes part of Australia
-Namibia becomes part of British South Africa
-Arthur Balfour becomes Prime Minister of UK

France
-Anti-Republic protests grip the nation
-Election of war hero Philippe Petain to the office of President
-Replacement of Republican ministers with monarchists
-Catholicism reestablished as state religion
-Restoration of the Bourbon-Orleans Dynasty in the form of Philippe VII
-Pro-Bolshevik uprising crushed by French Army loyal to Petain and Foch
-Conservatives win majority of seats in French National Assembly
-Economic Depression
-General dissatisfaction with the war, for France’s only gain to be Lebanon

Germany
-Wilhelm II and descendents forced to abdicate in favor of Prince Heinrich
-Feeling of loss of war in middle class due to losing Alsace-Lorraine
-Severe economic slump teetering on the brink of depression
-Bolshevik, Left Wing, Right Wing and Republican protests often turn violent
-Secessionist sentiment growing in Bavaria, Württemberg, Saxony, Baden and Hessen
-Gustav Stresemann is appointed Chancellor by Kaiser Heinrich I in 1919
-New moderately liberal constitution adopted

Russia
-Revolution occurs between various factions ranging from Democrats, to Monarchists, to Bolsheviks and Republicans
-Under the competent leadership of Tsar Cyril I, the monarchists emerge victorious, while granting some powers to the democrats to assure an alliance
-A new conservative constitution is written by Cyril and approved by the Duma
-All males over the age of 20 and could prove they were Russian and Christian are allowed to vote for members of the lower house in the Duma, and for city mayors
-Regional Governors were appointed by the Tsar and approved by the Senate
-Members of the Duma Upper House were nobles
-The Tsar will continue to hold executive powers
-A Chancellor appointed by the Tsar from the Upper House and approved by the Lower House would hold legislative powers
-The Lower House will nominate Judges for the Russian Supreme Court and send them to the Upper House for approval, when approved by the Upper House they are sworn in by the Tsar and will serve on the bench until their deaths, retirement or dismissed by the Tsar
-Cyril and the Duma recognize the loss of Finland, Poland and the Ukraine but secretly believe this is only a temporary arrangement, the Tsar refuses to recognize the loss of the Pacific Coast claiming the Japanese are illegally violating Russian Sovereignty
-Economic Depression being eased by Cyril’s Industrialization Program in Russia’s major cities

Austria-Hungary
-Dissolution is not a matter of if but when
-Archduke Franz Ferdinand is seriously considering proposing a Union between Austria, Bohemia and Moravia with the German Empire, and giving Hungary with control over its territory complete independence
-Lost Tyrol and Trieste in plebiscite to Italy
-Mild Economic Depression

Italy
-Mussolini-like prime minister appointed by King (though not Mussolini)
-Red Scare has nation on edge
-Feeling of betrayal by population as thousands died for only Tyrol and Trieste
-Severe Economic Crisis that teeters on brink of Depression


Europe 10 years after the war
 
Several points:

First, I think Nicholas was the object of an assassination attempt while visiting Japan before he became tsar. You might want to just make the outcome of that attempt successful, to make the timeline more plausible and tighten its relationship to our timeline.

I have trouble seeing the Romanovs making it out of the Revolution still ruling Russia, and the situation between the 1905 and 1917 Revolutions in our timeline illustrate the problems in which you have on one hand the institution of the tsardom, by the internal logic of which the country and all the people within it are the property of the tsar, and on the other hand the modern institutions of an industrial state. Mixing these are almost impossible, especially when most of the people on both sides of the mix want their vision to be enacted, all-or-nothing. I suppose the constitutional monarchism of the Kadets come closest to this view though.

But even then, the views of the peasants as expressed in the 1917 elections to the constituent assembly were overwhelmingly in favor of the peasant socialist party, who along with the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks won an overwhelming majority of the vote. The Kadets and other conservative forces had very little support. So your Tsar Cyril could face the problem of holding elections with the limited franchise you specify, only to face a maelstrom from the socialist opposition.

In my opinion, the best way to add some years to the lifespan of the Romanov dynasty is for there not to be a war, or for there to be a quick victory on one side or the other (say, Paris falls quickly in 1914, and whoever the tsar is knows better than to face Germany in a one-front conflict).
 

Xen

Banned
I may end up having to go back and rework a few things anyway, maybe pushing the POD back a few years instead of being with the death of Nikolai II, it would be something that happens in the nineteenth century. Though many of these events I still plan on having occur.

I don't believe the Romanov's were doomed, they really wasn't in OTL, I subscribe to the theory that the fall of the Romanov's was a fluke. Remove just one element from the equation, then we have a whole different ball game, in this case we remove Lenin, and the Bolsheviks may be as prone to fight one another as they were the White's. The you provide the White's with adqueate leadership, in this case the rule of Cyril, and we have a whole new ballgame.

I may end up using the POD of a successful restoration in France in 1870 and work my way up from there, or I could pay homage to Tocomocho and his very excellent timeline a Prussian on the Spanish Throne as my POD and go from there. :)
 
I didn't mean to sound excessively discouraging. If the point is that the Romanovs survive as the ruling house of Russia, then you can even have Nicholas as tsar but let Stolypin live and be the one to manage the war effort, effectively vetoing the tsar's bad decision-making and modernizing the army the way he tried to do the nation's agriculture. Or you could have Nicholas marry differently, and negate Alexandra's bad influence and rid history of Rasputin. There's lots of places to insert the "What if" in this story.

I am curious about one thing: it maybe expresses the limits of my knowledge on the subject matter why you specifically want the tsarist crown to go to Cyril. Little brother Michael to me would be interesting as a choice, not least because the symbolic value of the common-born tsarina and tsarevich Michael would bring with him might do a little to popularize the monarchy.
 
I wouldn't underestimate the complexity of the Russian political life between 1905 and 1917. Government made a number of bad choices which lead to a rapid radicalisation of the population, and not only in Russian part of the Empire, but especially in the Baltic Region. Nicholas II paid the personal price for that. If certain necessarely reforms had been made starting from 1905, the 1917 Revolution could have actually been avoided and the Romanovs - even Nicholas II - could have well stayed in some sort of power.

Otherwise, I think some sort of a Civil War would have been unavoidable, even in case Nicholas II died in 1904 or earlier. The alignments wouldn't, however, have necessaraly been what we actually saw in 1917 and onwards. With Michael or who ever succeeded making a couple of different calls, I could actually see, for instance, the Bolsheviks going to war weaker and more SR members aligning with the Kadets - one should remember this actually happened to some extend in OTL - in the Civil War.
 
The POD I used for Tsar Michael The Great was Nikolai II's death from illness at Livadia around the turn of the century, which almost happened in OTL

However, if you kill him off before 1904 you either avoid the Russo-Japanese War altogether (as his successor makes more sensible choices) or you have it fought better, or you have it ended earlier *(no sending of the Baltic Fleet all the way around the world to its doom)

So, I don't think 1904 is a bad idea. But I do have a few little comments :)

-1- Russia entering the Balkan War would almost certainly trigger a Triple Alliance entry that doesn't require any other POD. OK, Italy will probably immediately swap sides since its fighting the Ottomans already and would be a natural ally of Russia in this scenario

-2- Michael was popular with the troops, tho part of that of course was his OTL WW1 service.

-3- I think that any palace revolution that sees Cyril overthrow Michael would be doomed to almost immediate collapse

-4- Not quite sure of your Chinese succession here ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

P.S. More tomorrow, plus I hope the other comments I promised you... Possibly even more on this one today if the library is working properly
 
I don't believe the Romanov's were doomed, they really wasn't in OTL, I subscribe to the theory that the fall of the Romanov's was a fluke. Remove just one element from the equation, then we have a whole different ball game, in this case we remove Lenin, and the Bolsheviks may be as prone to fight one another as they were the White's. The you provide the White's with adqueate leadership, in this case the rule of Cyril, and we have a whole new ballgame


I agree with the general sentiment, but am intrigued that you see these qualities in Cyril. I admit that I haven't researched him in any detail for ages, but my residual opinion of him doesn't seem to be this. I had a lot of respect for Michael, but some of the qualities that made him a good bet in OTL would be missing from this ATL - its kind of ironic, the chance he needs might come in this ATL, but he needs some of the experiences of OTL to become the man to take these chances

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
One last note on the matter: if someone wants a conservative or a bourgeois moderate to step in and save the day, why think of it in terms of a Romanov in the first place?

Perhaps Vladimir Nabokov Sr? Or perhaps whoever the tsar is brings in Prince Lvov (who was well thought of nationally because of his relief work in the 1890s famine and the Russo-Japanese War) before things get out of hand?

As it was, Nicholas's inflexibility had as much influence as Lenin's in creating the situation where there were no intermediate positions between the extremes of Russian politics.
 
A First World War in 1912 will only last a year. Either the Germans take Paris and the French surrender (very unlikely), or the British blockade starves the CP of nitrates so they can't fight on, and the shortage of shells leads to a crushing Entente victory.
 
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