The Death of Callaghan in 1969

in 1969 James Callaghan as Home Secretary went to Northern Ireland, the Troubles had yet to start full force, the IRA is just starting to split just starting to get arms ready, how ever Callaghan came with close to no security (one film shows him talking to a crowd out an open window) so what if some one (maybe in the IRA or just a crazy republican) shots and kills the Future Prime Minster, how does no James Callaghan change the history of the UK?
 

Thande

Donor
Well Callaghan would be remembered as a failure (though a martyr) due to the pound devaluation business a few years earlier, not having a chance to rebuild his career like OTL.

Without Callaghan the right/left divide in the Labour Party will probably be exacerbated sooner...but Labour are also more likely to win the 1970 election based on the sympathy vote (and of course the World Cup butterflies)...so you could end up with Labour breaking in two while in government, although it would probably be restricted to a lot of backbench indiscipline.

Of course if Labour do win in 1970 then you face the question of whether Heath is forced from the Tory leadership and who takes over...

Also Roy Jenkins has a decent shot of succeeding Wilson as Labour leader (and PM) I suspect.
 
Assuming events proceed as per OTL until 1976? In that case you have a Healey v. Foot matchup, with Wilson likely backing Healey, who is hands down the best choice for Labour leader without Callaghan in the picture. If Healey wins then he might call an election in 1978, a slim Tory majority which has to clamp down hard, harder than any British government since the General Strike, on the Winter of Discontent, without the final blow being administered to Lab's credibility by their own core constituency. In 1979 Healey still loses to Thatcher, as Callaghan said himself a sea-change (what Americans would call a realignment election) was underway and it favoured Mrs Thatcher. If Foot wins then the Tories crush him at levels closer to OTL 1983 than OTL 1979.
 

Thande

Donor
Assuming events proceed as per OTL until 1976?

But they won't. Without Callaghan there'll be much less opposition to Wilson, for example. I doubt Healey will get a look in in the short term: OTL he was just "the least unacceptable candidate of the right".
 
the 1970 election was fairly close, if I remember right, would the very public death of a Cabinet member put any wind into Labour's sails?
 
Well Callaghan would be remembered as a failure (though a martyr) due to the pound devaluation business a few years earlier, not having a chance to rebuild his career like OTL.

Without Callaghan the right/left divide in the Labour Party will probably be exacerbated sooner...but Labour are also more likely to win the 1970 election based on the sympathy vote (and of course the World Cup butterflies)...so you could end up with Labour breaking in two while in government, although it would probably be restricted to a lot of backbench indiscipline.

Of course if Labour do win in 1970 then you face the question of whether Heath is forced from the Tory leadership and who takes over...

Also Roy Jenkins has a decent shot of succeeding Wilson as Labour leader (and PM) I suspect.

Both parties are going to fracture, because the Tory right was in semi-open rebellion against Heath by 1970 and it seems to me that they would have openly rebelled had he lost, since everyone expected him to lose IOTL. The Tory right needs someone who is more credible than Enoch Powell, and I don't see anyone who fits the bill with sufficient seniority. So another One National most likely, take your pick of the senior Shadow Cabinet members. Is it possible that Macleod stands?
 
Well, that does change things a bit doesn't it... Well, we'll probably see the Labour Party divide much sooner, but we also might not see the emergence of David Owen, given that Callaghan's choosing him for Foreign Secretary was what got him so much attention.

Will Wilson contest another election or will someone else emerge?
 
the 1970 election was fairly close, if I remember right, would the very public death of a Cabinet member put any wind into Labour's sails?

1970 and 1992 are the British 1948 analogues, so yep it was very close. Labour had started to uptick before the election and if Wilson had let the situation stabilize by delaying till the autumn he would likely have won again. Two majority victories by Labour mean Heath is out, though it will take a while before his ideology is also jettisoned, probably another Tory ejection from government under his One National successor.
 
Well, that does change things a bit doesn't it... Well, we'll probably see the Labour Party divide much sooner, but we also might not see the emergence of David Owen, given that Callaghan's choosing him for Foreign Secretary was what got him so much attention.

Will Wilson contest another election or will someone else emerge?

If Wilson wins then he probably runs again and retires, he said he didn't want to stay in office past the age of 60. At that point he will have been Labour leader for 13 years and PM for 12, the longest continuous run since Liverpool. Like Baldwin in 1937, he'll be "too old/sick/tired for this shit." Owen is talented but an arrogant prima donna, and somehow I could see him ending up like Thatcher if he ever reaches the top of the greasy pole: getting overthrown because he pisses everyone off and disses too many sacred cows.
 
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