October 26, 1835
HĂŽtel de Ministre des Affaires ĂtrangĂšres[1], Paris
âŠfor these many reasons I enjoin you to grant these missionaries no access either to Korean translators, or to Quelpart[2]. A day will doubtless come when the Koreans are too accustomed to our trade and its many conveniences for their king to bar us from his kingdom as the Japanese do. When this day is upon us, it will be time to consider a change of policy.
In the meantime, let Christians rejoice; for under the rule of the new monarch of Viet Nam, there is to be no bar to missionary work in that kingdom. Moreover, the kings of Siam and Burma have both agreed to permit a greater presence by missionaries. Here are opportunities enough for a generationâŠ
Once Foreign Minister Ătienne Maurice GĂ©rard had finished the letter to the Compagnie de Commerce de LâOrient, he considered what to tackle next. Strictly speaking, now that France ruled Algeria it was no longer a matter for the Foreign Ministry, and British Orania lay between Algeria and Morocco⊠but it was largely Moroccan mischief that had led to the Barbary Partition in the first place, so it paid to keep an eye on them even if that was supposed to be Madridâs job.
Especially since the target of Moroccoâs latest mischief wasnât the Spanish garrisons in Fez and the towns of the Mediterranean coast, but the Portuguese on the Atlantic coast, in what was now Tangeria. The rebels were attacking the coast between the town the Portuguese called Rebate and the town they called Casa Branca. They were under the leadership of Abd al-Qadir, who seemed to have moved his operations west from Algeria and Orania. Sultan Abd al-Rahman was swearing he had nothing to do with any of this.
Before the Partition, al-Rahmanâs insistence that coastal tribes who engaged in piracy were outside his control had rightly been dismissed as excuses.[3] Now, GĂ©rard couldnât help wondering if the Sultan was using al-Qadir to pursue the fight that he was in no position to wage. Anyway, Portugal was committed to this war, but Spain was already fighting two wars in the Philippines and a third in Central America. They wouldnât take action in Morocco unless they had no other choice.
Brazil was in chaos. The slaveholders were in rebellion, the slaves were in rebellion, and their boy prince was trying to get the government in Rio to ally with the slaves against the slaveholders, but so far to no avail. This wasnât officially French policy, but French ships were smuggling powder and shot to the Minas Gerais rebels in exchange for gold. Whatever put more gold in French hands was something GĂ©rard couldnât argue with right now.
The conflict on the Indus, which had seemed to spell doom for the last independent powers of India, had instead opened up an opportunity. Barelvi (or possibly Barelwiâhis sources couldnât agree on how to spell it) had taken a fort on the Indus, at a place called Mithan Kot, and massacred the Sikh garrison. His plan had been to secure the fort and hold it until the monsoon began and made large-scale military maneuvers impracticable, giving him months of grace period, and then⊠had he planned at all beyond that?
Probably no one would ever know. Ranjit Singh had arrived too late to save his coreligionists, but in plenty of time to avenge them. He was the most feared general east of the Cairene Empire, and Barelvi was an amateur at war whoâd mistaken a streak of good luck for the favor of Allah. Soon the Sikh commander had the invaders surrounded and trapped inside the fortifications they themselves had just finished destroying. The battle was short. There was no quarter. The bloodshed ended just in time for the monsoon to begin and send all those bodies floating down the Indus to let Sindh know how the situation had resolved itself. Singh found some Sindhi prince whoâd survived Barelvi and put him on the throne, on the understanding that Sindh and the Sikh Empire would henceforth be âthe closest of alliesâ⊠which meant that the Sikhs now had an outlet on the Indian Ocean.
How long this would last was anybodyâs guess. The East India Company was still the greatest power in India, and from their point of view a strong, independent native state was already like a naked flame in a powder mill. Would Britain permit it to exist and trade with the outside world for any length of time? GĂ©rard doubted it. This Lord Brougham was liberal, but not that kind of liberal. Whatever we do to strengthen Ranjit Singh, weâd better do it now, and weâd better do it quietly. The HEIC will surely have spies in the villages of the Indus delta. The CCO was already trading in those villages. That would provide cover for his ministry to slip a few documentsâblueprints for factories, descriptions of modern manufacturing methodsâinto Singhâs hands. It wouldnât turn that little state into the next Hanover, but it might be enough to tie down the British at some crucial point, somewhere in the future.
Apart from missionary work, Burma seemed like less of a good investmentâa weak state that might at any moment choose to become a British protectorate just so some major power would have a reason not to allow it to come to harm. Better to encourage strength and independence in Siam. Precisely because the British are better able to project their own strength overseas than we are, they value dependency rather than strength in their Oriental allies. We can turn this to our advantage.
Much closer to homeâbut still rather far awayâthe Tsar was building up his fleet in Sevastopol. When that little egg hatched, it would be the least surprising surprise attack in history.
Turning to events in America⊠they were just depressing. Yet another stateâsomeplace called Marylandâhad defaulted on its bonds. The United States of America had been the nation of the future for as long as GĂ©rard could remember. It would be nice if it started being the nation of the present.
[1] A smaller and more neoclassical structure than the OTL building, which wasnât even begun until 1844.
[2] The French trading post on Jeju Island, named for the European name for the island.
[3] Morocco wasnât a completely unified polity before the Partitionâparts were and remain under the Sultanâs central control, while other parts were and are under the control of allied tribes. Needless to say, the people who did the Partition neither knew nor cared.