So I recently asked if Czar Nicholas II remaining behind in St. Petersburg could save the government. I was thinking a little bit more on that, and realized that the douche factor of the Czarina and asshat Rasputin would probably continue anyway. Now, if memory serves me correctly, Grand Duke Michael was very popular with the people. So, what if the train Nicholas is on derails on the way to the front?
For good measure, most of the passengers including the Czar are killed. Once word arrives at the Capital, the Grand Duke is urgently sent for by the ministers of the Crown. A regency is set up for Alexei under the Grand Duke and the Empress is shitting razor blades she's so mad but nobody cares.
Now, the true situation of the Front is brought to Michael's attention, and the ministers press upon him the urgency of making peace. My feeling is that Grand Duke Michael would be a little more realistic than his brother and might be willing to sign away the Baltic states and Poland.