The Cuomo Presidency: 1993 -- 2001

That is almost certainly what would have happened...unless the Cuomo campaign fizzled, which is always a possibility; Democratic front-runners have a way of not doing well in the primaries ala Hillary Clinton in '08, Howard Dean in '04, Gary Hart in '88, Ed Muskie in '72, and arguably Paul Tsongas in '92 & Edward Kennedy in '80.

Hey, Im thinking about starting a full fledged timeline from this POD, and I was wondering does anybody have a list of the Democratic Primary Schedule and the respective winners from OTL?
 
I have a partial list. If you play President Forever, then you can check out my 1992 scenario which would allow you to wargame out different primary outcomes—Cuomo is included with my best guess as his starting percentages if he had run. (As always: I'm a scenario consultant and independent contractor for TheorySpark, the company which makes the game proper.)

Iowa Caucus: (23R, 49D; delegates)
2/10/1992: Harkin 76.4%, Tsongas 4.1%, Clinton 2.8%, Kerrey 2.4%, Brown 1.6%

New Hampshire Primary: (18 D, 23 R)
2/18/1992: Tsongas 33.2%, Clinton 24.8%, Kerrey 11.1%, Harkin 10.2%, Brown 8.0%

South Dakota (15D, 19R)
2/25/1992

3/3/1992
Colorado 37R, 47D

Delaware Primary: 14, 19R
3/10/1992 (Caucus): Tsongas 30.2%, Uncommitted 29.6%, Clinton 20.8%, Brown 19.5%

Missouri Primary: 77D, 47R
3/10/1992 (Caucus): Clinton 45.1%, Tsongas 10.2%, Brown 5.7%, Uncommitted 39%

Nevada 17D, 21R
3/8

Mississippi (39D, 34R)
3/10

South Carolina Primary: (43 D, 36 R)
3/7/1992: Clinton 62.9%, Tsongas 18.3%, Harkin 6.6%, Brown 6.0%

Arizona Primary: (41D, 37R)
3/7/1992 (Caucus): Tsongas 34.4%, Clinton 29.2%, Brown 27.5%, Harkin 7.6%


New Mexico Caucus: 25R, 25D
6/2/1992 (Primary): Clinton 52.9%, Brown 16.9%, Tsongas 6.2%, Harkin 1.8%


California Primary: 348D, 201R
6/2/1992: Clinton 47.5%, Brown 40.2%, Tsongas 7.4%, Kerrey 1.2%

Alabama 38R, 55D

Montana 20R, 16D

New Jersey 60R, 105D
6/2

Ohio Primary: 83R, 151D
6/2/1992: Clinton 61.2%, Brown 18.9%, Tsongas 10.6%, Harkin 2.4%, Kerrey 2.2%



North Dakota Caucus: 17R, 14D
6/9/1992: Clinton 46.0%, Tsongas 10.3%, Brown 7.5%, Harkin 6.8%, Kerrey 1.2%

Oklahoma Primary: (45 DEM, 34 REP)
3/10/1992: Clinton 70.5%, Brown 16.7%, Harkin 3.4%, Kerrey 3.2%


Michigan Caucus: 131, 72R
3/17/1992: Clinton 50.7%, Brown 25.8%, Tsongas 16.6%, Uncommitted 4.8%, Harkin 1.1%, Kerrey 0.5%

Illinois (164, 85R
3.17

Washington (state) Primary: 35R, 71D
5/19/1992: Tsongas 32.3%, Uncommitted 23.2%, Brown 18.6%, Clinton 12.6%, Harkin 8.2%, Kerrey 3.4%

Oregon 47D, 23R
5/19

Maine Caucus: (23 DEM, 22 REP)
2/23/1992: Brown 30.3%, Tsongas 29.0%, Uncommitted 16.1%, Clinton 14.8%, Harkin 5.2%, Kerrey 3.0%

District of Columbia Caucus: (17D, 14R)
5/5/1992 (Primary): Clinton 73.8%, Tsongas 10.4%, Uncommitted 8.5%, Brown 7.2%

Tennessee (68 DEM, 45 REP)
3/10/1992: Clinton 67.3%, Tsongas 19.4%, Brown 8.0%, Uncommitted 3.9%, Harkin 0.7%, Kerrey 0.5%

Virginia Primary: (78D, 55R: 5/30)
4/13/1992 (Caucus): Clinton 52.1%, Uncommitted 36.3%, Brown 11.6%

Kentucky 35R, 52D

Arkansas 27R, 36D
26/5

Idaho Caucus: 18D 22R
26/5/1992: Harkin 29.7%, Tsongas 28.4%, Uncommitted 17.2%, Clinton 11.4%, Kerrey 8%, Brown 4.5%

Florida (148D, 97R)
3/10/1992

Louisiana (60 D, 38 R)
3/12

Pennsylvania (169 D, 91 R)
4/28

Nebraska 23D, 24R
5/12

West Virginia 31D, 18R
5/12

Wisconsin Primary: 82D, 35R
4/7/1992: Clinton 37.2%, Brown 34.5%, Tsongas 21.8%, Uncommitted 2.0%, Harkin 0.7%, Kerrey 0.4%


Utah "Primary": 27R, 23D
3/3/1992: Tsongas 33.4%, Brown 28.4%, Clinton 18.3%, Kerrey 10.9%, Harkin 4.0%

Massachusetts Primary: (94D, 38R)
3/10/1992: Tsongas 66.4%, Brown 14.6%, Clinton 10.9%, Other 5.4%, Uncommitted 1.5%, Kerrey 0.7%, Harkin 0.5%

Rhode Island Primary: (22 DEM, 15 REP)
3/10/1992: Tsongas 52.9%, Clinton 21.2%, Brown 18.8%, Other 4.1%, Uncommitted 1.4%, Kerrey 0.9%, Harkin 0.6%

Vermont Primary: (14 D, 19 R)
3/31/1992 (Caucus): Brown 46.7%, Uncommitted 25%, Clinton 16.8%, Tsongas 9.3%

Indiana 51R, 77D
5/5

North Carolina (84D, 57R )
5/5

Connecticut Primary: 53 D, 35 R
3/24/1992: Brown 37.2%, Clinton 35.6%, Tsongas 19.5%, Uncommitted 3.1%, Harkin 1.1%, Kerrey 0.7%

Maryland Primary: 42R, 67D
3/3/1992: Tsongas 40.6%, Clinton 33.5%, Brown 8.2%, Uncommitted 6.4%, Harkin 5.8%, Kerrey 4.8%

New York Primary: 244D, 100R
4/7/1992: Clinton 40.9%, Tsongas 28.6%, Brown 26.2%, Harkin 1.1%, Kerrey 1.1%

Georgia Primary: 52R, 76D
3/3/1992: Clinton 57.2%, Tsongas 24.0%, Brown 8.1%, Kerry 4.8%, Uncommitted 3.8%, Harkin 2.1%


Texas Primary: 196, 121 REP
3/10/1992: Clinton 65.6%, Tsongas 19.2%, Brown 8.0%, Kerrey 1.4%, Harkin 1.3%


Hawaii Caucus: (20D) (GOP 14, takes place 1/29)
3/10/1992: Clinton 51.5%, Tsongas 14.3%, Brown 13.6%, Harkin 12.7%, Kerrey 0.4%

Minnesota Caucus: 78R, 32D
3/3/1992: Harkin 26.7%, Uncommitted 24.3%, Tsongas 19.2%, Clinton 10.3%, Brown 8.2%, Kerrey 7.6%

Kansas (36D, 30R)
4/7


May 5: Wyoming 20R, 13D

April 2: Alaska (13D) (GOP: 19, 1/27)
 
I have a partial list. If you play President Forever, then you can check out my 1992 scenario which would allow you to wargame out different primary outcomes—Cuomo is included with my best guess as his starting percentages if he had run. (As always: I'm a scenario consultant and independent contractor for TheorySpark, the company which makes the game proper.)
So how do you think the Primaries would have turned out if Cuomo had joined in the race, and all the same candidates from OTL still decide to run?
 
So how do you think the Primaries would have turned out if Cuomo had joined in the race, and all the same candidates from OTL still decide to run?

Tsongas has no base, Kerrey keeps running but probably fails as IOTL, Clinton is reduced to a Southern candidate (not to mention much of his money goes to Cuomo) and without as many wins as IOTL—notably New York—probably does much worse, Harkin is as OTL but worse, Brown does his couple victories but fades, and so on.

Harkin wins Iowa, of course, and Cuomo wins N.H. (but perhaps Tsongas pushes Clinton into third, which is near-fatal and "Comeback Kid" doesn't work so well), and so on.

Clinton probably still dominates Southern Super Tuesday but is unable to break out elsewhere.

Cuomo is too strong elsewhere (California, the big industrial states, the Northwest) and so Clinton likely comes in second, because the Western and Midwest delegates get chopped up among Kerrey and Clinton and perhaps Brown.
 
Top