The problem with saying the South WILL industrialise because it MUST is that the same argument applies to Tanzania. It deliberately and utterly rejected the model of industrial capitalism/wage labor practiced in the North, and will continue to do so until it loses a war (or experiences some similar calamity, I suppose, but war's about the only stimulus that FORCES change on the scale needed). And the problem with that is that there's one nation the CSA is likely to lose a war to, and that adversary is likely to hurt the CSA so badly it can't even recover and learn its lesson.
I'm pretty sure Mexico has no interest in any CSA territory but Texas, New Mexico if the CSA got a generous peace. The idea of Mexico getting it together enough to take and hold Texas is interesting, though...that might let the remainder of the CSA survive and wake up to the need to industrialise. How has Mexico progressed, that it thinks this is a good idea and has the power to do so?
Texas leaving once the oil industry takes off seems likely - they were already primus inter pares by that point, and suddenly they're looking at being the cash cow for the rest of the CSA in perpetuity. Don't expect they'll like that.
Most likely, though...around WWI, when all the veterans of the War of Secession are dead, the CSA declares war on the USA over all the latter day John Browns (despite the profound inadvisability of this that we all see). This may or may not be connected to a European theatre or to Mexico and a German telegram. The USA government may eventually forgive and move on, but it's just too easy and too much fun for a northerner, or a society of northerners, to buy a bunch of revolvers and radios and ship them to slaves in Virginia. Over and over. Whenever they're bored and have some pocket change. The CSA will have to liberalise and industrialise, or else neutralise its neighbor, and it's certain to choose the wrong option.
I'm pretty sure Mexico has no interest in any CSA territory but Texas, New Mexico if the CSA got a generous peace. The idea of Mexico getting it together enough to take and hold Texas is interesting, though...that might let the remainder of the CSA survive and wake up to the need to industrialise. How has Mexico progressed, that it thinks this is a good idea and has the power to do so?
Texas leaving once the oil industry takes off seems likely - they were already primus inter pares by that point, and suddenly they're looking at being the cash cow for the rest of the CSA in perpetuity. Don't expect they'll like that.
Most likely, though...around WWI, when all the veterans of the War of Secession are dead, the CSA declares war on the USA over all the latter day John Browns (despite the profound inadvisability of this that we all see). This may or may not be connected to a European theatre or to Mexico and a German telegram. The USA government may eventually forgive and move on, but it's just too easy and too much fun for a northerner, or a society of northerners, to buy a bunch of revolvers and radios and ship them to slaves in Virginia. Over and over. Whenever they're bored and have some pocket change. The CSA will have to liberalise and industrialise, or else neutralise its neighbor, and it's certain to choose the wrong option.