You never answered my question. Have you read it? If not, have you at least seen the first three posts. Paine is gone, he is arguably the leading propagandist of the day and virulent anti-monarchist, with him gone their won't be as much hate for a crown. Second, Sheys' Rebellion is much different and worse. Here it created a fear of, for lack of a better phrase, "unrestrained democracy". Finally, when the Convention occurred, it was much more dysfunctional. Its no surprise, then, when the Convention finally settled down they wanted a stable presence in the form of a Crown. It limited the mob and provided something to rally around. I don't think its that much of a stretch, especially since its Washington in charge.
Yes, I have read it, and I still think you're stretching it rather too far.
Removing Paine doesn't remove the entire anti-monarchical / enlightenment strain from the rest of the Founders. Paine wasn't the only federalist in the group; what about James Madison and John Jay? Or John Adams and Thomas Jefferson? Speaking of an adams, what about Samuel Adams? Even then, thats only six of the eleven quote-unquote 'major' founders, and only six of the seventy-four delegates at the constitutional convention.
Republicanism wasn't tied up in just one man, and even with a worse Shay's Rebellion that isn't going to led the Conventionalists to (re)turn to monarchy; it'll just lead to strong Federal powers - but that isn't the same thing as a hereditary King. At worse, the nation breaks up and we see three to five separate nations loosely united along HRE-style lines that would rapidly react against outside (read: British) interference.
Finally, there's Washington himself. Washington, the 'Father' of the nation, the man who lead the Continental Army, and then stepped down from power and withdrew from public life - suddenly advocating a monarchy?
This isn't to say that this isn't a well written TL. Asides from the points I raised above, I actually like it so far; it'll be interesting to see the butterflies of a KoA, depending on how far and which way you take it. Right now though, it just needs some fine tuning. You'll either need to spend some time and posts explaining a bit further how these big changes came about (and the accompanying little changes, butterflies, ripples, and etc) or simply accept many people are going to cry ASB.