The Crossing of the Rhine is unsuccessful?

Following the Crossing of the Rhine in 406 AD by a mixed group of barbarians into the Roman Empire, there was a period of instability as northern Gaul succumbed to chaos and pillaging by the barbarians. This in turn caused the rise of three usurpers in Britannia. It also didn't help that the Crossing was a significant moment in the decline of Rome, due to it occurring at what was one of the WRE's most secure borders.
So, what if it never happened, or is just a failure? Perhaps there were garrisons in place at the time who managed to ward off the intruders. What would the (perhaps long-term) effects and ramifications of this be?
 
The western Roman empire is still weak and in need of outsiders (germans) to act as police and soldiers. If this fails something else will succeed.
 
I don’t know if the prompt is plausible—the Roman forces at the Rhine were really designed to hold off raids and very small incursions, not the conglomerate that was the Vandal-Alan-Suebi-other supergroup. Once the Rhine froze over... I don’t see a very plausible way to stop them right then and there.

Assuming, though, that the forces are somehow absolutely and utterly destroyed, the largest impact I could see for this is that Africa is not lost to Empire. The coalition, after breaking through the Rhine, rampaged its way through Gaul and into Hispania, where they essentially divided Hispania amongst themselves. This, combined with Alaric’s journey through Italia into southern Gallia, devastated the provinces of the Western Empire so much that a substantial majority of tax revenues from these provinces (I believe around 6/7) was cut from those provinces. Worse, though, was that the Vandal-Alan coalition, after nearly being destroyed, decided that Africa was a safer place than Hispania, and invaded. Within two decades, Africa was overrun, and had turned from the Empire’s salvation to its destruction.

In short, if, somehow, the Rhine crossing was aborted indefinitely, the Empire would definitely have a longer term shot at survival. The issue is how such a scenario would come about without ASBs flapping their fairy magic dust wings.
 
I don’t know if the prompt is plausible—the Roman forces at the Rhine were really designed to hold off raids and very small incursions, not the conglomerate that was the Vandal-Alan-Suebi-other supergroup. Once the Rhine froze over... I don’t see a very plausible way to stop them right then and there.

Assuming, though, that the forces are somehow absolutely and utterly destroyed, the largest impact I could see for this is that Africa is not lost to Empire. The coalition, after breaking through the Rhine, rampaged its way through Gaul and into Hispania, where they essentially divided Hispania amongst themselves. This, combined with Alaric’s journey through Italia into southern Gallia, devastated the provinces of the Western Empire so much that a substantial majority of tax revenues from these provinces (I believe around 6/7) was cut from those provinces. Worse, though, was that the Vandal-Alan coalition, after nearly being destroyed, decided that Africa was a safer place than Hispania, and invaded. Within two decades, Africa was overrun, and had turned from the Empire’s salvation to its destruction.

In short, if, somehow, the Rhine crossing was aborted indefinitely, the Empire would definitely have a longer term shot at survival. The issue is how such a scenario would come about without ASBs flapping their fairy magic dust wings.

What if the Rhine didn't freeze over?
 
Humans couldn’t (and probably still can’t) force a river not to freeze over.

So that’s ASB.

Also my above post should answer your question.

The river freezing is a matter of weather. Weather can very easily be affected by humans. In fact, the original saying for the butterfly effect specifically refers to weather.
 
The river freezing is a matter of weather. Weather can very easily be affected by humans. In fact, the original saying for the butterfly effect specifically refers to weather.

The winter of 406 was one of the coldest ever for Europe. Consequently the Rhine froze over.

Also, in my book, just because a human action could theoretically change the weather doesn’t mean it will. Some link of causation needs to be proven, or else it feels too much like handwaiving, which is basically a gateway drug to ASB.

I’d prefer a solution that doesn’t involve that.
 
The winter of 406 was one of the coldest ever for Europe. Consequently the Rhine froze over.

Also, in my book, just because a human action could theoretically change the weather doesn’t mean it will. Some link of causation needs to be proven, or else it feels too much like handwaiving, which is basically a gateway drug to ASB.

I’d prefer a solution that doesn’t involve that.

Make your POD that the winter didn't end up being cold, leading to the Rhine not freezing over. It is clear, simple, and easy to understand. It is also not ASB as changing weather patterns does not require the intervention of an ASB. It will be fine, it is a perfectly valid POD.
 
Make your POD that the winter didn't end up being cold, leading to the Rhine not freezing over. It is clear, simple, and easy to understand. It is also not ASB as changing weather patterns does not require the intervention of an ASB. It will be fine, it is a perfectly valid POD.

Well to make that your POD, you’d have to either:

Change the currents of the sea (the Gulf Stream especially) to sufficiently warm Europe that winter

Change the distance of the Earth from the sun just enough to warm the earth

Change the tilt of the earth’s axis enough so that the winters are milder that year

Change the sunspot patterns/luminosity of the Sun that year



All of which require the flapping of some serious ASBs to work. It’d honestly be less ASB for the Romans to build a freaking Wall on the Rhine IMO.
 
Well to make that your POD, you’d have to either:

Change the currents of the sea (the Gulf Stream especially) to sufficiently warm Europe that winter

Change the distance of the Earth from the sun just enough to warm the earth

Change the tilt of the earth’s axis enough so that the winters are milder that year

Change the sunspot patterns/luminosity of the Sun that year



All of which require the flapping of some serious ASBs to work. It’d honestly be less ASB for the Romans to build a freaking Wall on the Rhine IMO.

Or, have a few butterflies flap their wings and cause a few storms to either happen or not happen, changing the movement of weather fronts which prevents Europe from being hit by the cold snap.
 
Or, have a few butterflies flap their wings and cause a few storms to either happen or not happen, changing the movement of weather fronts which prevents Europe from being hit by the cold snap.

I think we’ll have to agree to disagree.

That aside, assuming the Rhine didn’t freeze over, then or for years after, and the Barbarians didn’t just find another way past the Roman frontiers, the Empire would probably be better off. It’s European provinces would doubtless be less devastated than IOTL, and Africa would likely stay with the West, greatly enhancing the security and power of the Empire.

Even IOTL, after the Barbarian crossings of the Rhine, the Roman State has shots at long-term survival up to the 460s, and some would argue up to the bitter end in 480 (with the death of Nepos, past even the deposition of Romulus Augustulus)

Honestly, the best way I can think of to prevent the Rhine crossings is to handwave the Huns. They were the force that pushed the Goths into the Balkans at Adrianople; they pushed the combined coalition that crossed the Rhine in 406, and upon Attila’s death, the violent collapse of the Empire caused many heretofore tributaries of the Huns to seek refuge in Roman borders, further damaging the moribund state, which could no longer defend itself effectively from powers inside and out. Not that there wouldn’t have been issues without the Huns, but...

But even this, without a coherent set of causes and effects, still smacks of handwaiving to me.
 
All of which require the flapping of some serious ASBs to work. It’d honestly be less ASB for the Romans to build a freaking Wall on the Rhine IMO.
You are forcing your view of causation. many who believe in butterfly effect would believe any random POD predate 406 WOULD change weather in 406. Any identical weather after POD is ASB.
 
You are forcing your view of causation. many who believe in butterfly effect would believe any random POD predate 406 WOULD change weather in 406. Any identical weather after POD is ASB.

I only partially agree, and to a very limited extent. I agree that things happening the exact same way after a POD is ASB (butterfly genocide). However, a change on the scale of weather/climate patterns would necessarily not happen in a vacuum. It would be so momentous that I would argue that it would be ASB for the Roman Empire to exist in the way we recognize it IOTL. The Rhine doesn’t exist in a vacuum, so any butterfly storm that affects it would necessarily send ripples through space and time. The small changes needed to force the Rhine not to freeze over could necessarily mean that events spatially and temporally around the Rhine must also differ to an extent that I would argue is unpredictable.

Even if this fails to convince you all, I think we all agree to play by some pretty basic rules in Alternate History. Of course we can’t be perfect in creating timelines, and the line between ASB and implausible is very fuzzy at best. However, the rules of the game are, according to the Admins:

Please do not post Evolution/Geologic/Climatatological/Cosmological POD T/L in pre 1900.



Don’t take it from me. Take it from them.

Case closed.
 
Please do not post Evolution/Geologic/Climatatological/Cosmological POD T/L in pre 1900.

Wut? ASB Forum guidelines only say

ASB IS for alternate history scenarios that involve time travel, magic, alien intervention, anything in the sea of time, and other such weirdness.

Threads with evolution and geological PODs belong in ASB.
 
However, a change on the scale of weather/climate patterns would necessarily not happen in a vacuum. It would be so momentous that I would argue that it would be ASB for the Roman Empire to exist in the way we recognize it IOTL. The Rhine doesn’t exist in a vacuum, so any butterfly storm that affects it would necessarily send ripples through space and time. The small changes needed to force the Rhine not to freeze over could necessarily mean that events spatially and temporally around the Rhine must also differ to an extent that I would argue is unpredictable.
. This I Disagree, Change from POD could only go to after POD future, so POD after 400 would mean Roman Empire still exists while weather changed.

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It might be necessary moving this Thread to ASB Forum, the admin would need simple guideline of what ASB or not.

But I don't think change of Weather in Single Year is ASB. Weather is unpredictable and susceptible to random input, so cold front-storm-rain in any year is always possible. Its not changing any climate pattern.
 
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Alternatively, to avoid ASB, the rhine does freeze over, but not strongly enough to support a massive crossing.

So a portion crosses, a portion drowns/dies of hypothermia when the ice breaks, and the portion still on the other side disperse, at least for a time
 
. This I Disagree, Change from POD could only go to after POD future, so POD after 400 would mean Roman Empire still exists while weather changed.

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It might be necessary moving this Thread to ASB Forum, the admin would need simple guideline of what ASB or not.

But I don't think change of Weather in Single Year is ASB. Weather is unpredictable and susceptible to random input, so cold front-storm-rain in any year is always possible. Its not changing any climate pattern.

I see. You’re saying that the weather patterns themselves don’t need changing, something could happen very unpredictable and temporarily to avert the Rhine freezing.

Fair point. Even so, I’d say that any tl that starts with this as a POD, rather than some aftereffect that is relatively specific (and I don’t know how it’d be that specific without having an increased understanding of climate and weather and information about exact climate/weather patterns in the past), it still seems like handwaving at best.

But I can understand wanting to keep this thread in the pre-1900 area, too. It’s an interesting premise.

Another idea I’d like to raise though—without the freezing of the Rhine, there is still going to be a massive amount of barbarians on the other side of the Rhine, who will want protection from the Romans. They’re not just going to disappear. Perhaps this only forces them to move south and enter over the upper Rhine, or through the little gap between the Rhine and Danube, or perhaps they are invited over later (or what’s left of them is invited) by a usurper. Or they are all screwed over. Who knows?
 
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