The crisis of 1983

yourworstnightmare

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In 1983 there were acctually two times when the USSR thought they were attacked by NATO. The first critical situation was on September 26th 1983 when Russian Air Defence Liuetenant- Colonel Stanislav Petrov pick up a missile attack warning on the Soviet satellites. He decided to deviate from standard Soviet doctrine, and instead of immidiate retaliation he check up on the system and realize it's malfunctioning.

The second critical situation is the so called Able Archer 83 NATO command post exercise, starting on November 2, that spanned all of Western Europe. The exercise simulated a period of conflict escalation, culminating in a coordinated nuclear release.It incorporated a new, unique format of coded communication, radio silences, participation by heads of state, and a simulated DEFCON 1 nuclear alert. The anticipated arrival of Pershing II nuclear misslies in Europe lead some in the USSR to believe they were acctual war preparations. In response, the Soviets readied their nuclear forces and placed air units in East Germany and Poland on alert. The Soviets were already preparing a first strike when the exercise enden on November 11.

So what if things ended up differently? What if someone else than Stanislav Petrov was on duty on September 26? Or what if the USSR did not realize Able Archer 83 was an exercise in time?
 
I think you might see a scary increase in alert from the Soviet Union, but as long as you have no actual offensive or defensive moves I would expect the Soviet government to have a large number of angry phone calls to Washington, which would probably clear the situation. I think this will stop the Able Archer Crisis.

If Petrov is not around, Able Archer goes from an incident on the Soviets' End to a global crisis. Like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world will have a "near miss". This flirting with a nuclear exchange should make President Reagan act more soberly with the Soviets to prevent another incident.

We often miss this fact, but the Soviet Union and the United States had considerable safeguards in play to prevent an accidental nuclear strike from happening. If these incidents can't be settled quietly, they will be settled in front of the Media. But that is a far cry from launching the nukes.
 
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