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As I'm sure most of you are aware, but the 1850's the old friendship between the French and Ottoman Empire had... soured quite a bit. France's colonial interests had been re-targeted at North Africa, having already occupied the nominally Ottoman province of Algiers and slowly encroaching on the Beybelik of Tunis, to say nothing of being the only Great Power to openly back the rebellious Wali of Egypt during the Oriental Crisis. This rocky period nearly came to a head when, in 1853, Emperor Napoleon III sent a warship into the Dardanelles and tried to strong-arm the Sultan-Caliph into declaring him the protector of the Christiandom within his Empire for the sake of satisfying his ultra-Catholic power base at home and earning international prestige.

While in our timeline Abdumecid I blinked first and yeilded to French demands, sparking off the Crimean War, this diden't have to be the case. Napoleon III's Empire is still young and unstable, and haden't been around long enough for the rest of Europe to get a clear idea of what his forgein policy would be. Considering his family's legacy, it would be easy to interpret his actions: sending the Charlemagne into the Straits and force the Ottomans to repute their previous treaties with the Russians under threat of force, as a sign that he was still dedicated to pursueing France's agenda of dominating North Africa via a power base in Egypt and had no intentention of respecting international law or the norms of the "Consert of Europe" that Great Britain was so intent on preserving.

So, what would happen if Abdumecid: out of a combination of hisdesire to protect Ottoman prestige, encouragement by bribery/diplomatic support from the British (Who have no desire to see the Empire weakened or drawn away from their primary task; keeping the Russian from expanding further south. Which reputing their treaties to placate the French would give the Czar justification to do. Russia, naturally, does not wanting to see their own interests undermined and would at least pressure Constantinople as much as they did IOTL), to earn political capital to help push through the Tanzimat reforms, and maybe even get Algiers back and more tightly bind the Barbary States to the Empire proper, rejects the French terms?

There are two different scenarios I'd like to discuss.

1. Napoleon III blinks first and withdraws his demands.

2. Either the Charlemagne ends up at the bottom of the harbor for some reason (I assume witnesses will give conflicting stories as to WHY the ship was fired upon/ended up sinking. Basically a Maine) scenario, or Napoleon III; needing to look strong at home as he establishes his domestic position and feeling a short, triumphant war against the Turks would both do wonders to rally France under his rule and expand his power in North Africa, uses the insult as an excuse to declare war on the Ottomans (Hey, they declared war on Algiers over a diplomat getting struck with a fancy flyswatter.)
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