The Coup of Yukio Mishima

Yukio Mishima was an ultra-nationalist Japanese author, who formed the Tatenokai- a militia given the right to trian alongside the JSDF-, and commited to to bushido. In November 25, 1970 he took over the headquarters of the Eastern Command of the JSDF. Mishima made a speech calling for a general coup in which the army took power, which failed ending in Mishima commiting suicide.

Now WI instead of the army booing Mishima some answered his call? Despite his radical views at the time Mishima was a very popular writer, and had the respect of many on the right of Japanese political circles.
 

maverick

Banned
No one in the army is crazy enough to follow Yukio Mishima, especially if the Emperor was against this.

Besides, Yukio Mishima probably didn't want to overthrow the Government, he just wanted an elaborate and theatrical scenario for committing ritual suicide (Seppuku), while getting everybody's attention. Of course, this is just a theory, I believe in it, but it's not like we can ask Mishima why he did it.*

In any case, nationalistic students and romantics like Mishima who worship the way of the Samurai and want things to go back to the Meiji-Taisho-early Showa days might want to follow, but this would lead to very small mobilizations, not a military uprising.

You'd really need a very early, early POD for something like this to be successful in the grey, bland, monolithic, stable and economically "prosper" Japan of the 1970s.


* I do remember this documentary on this sort of stuff, talking about Mishima being obsessed with militarism and Seppuku, which lends credit to that theory...

Mishima was raised mainly by his paternal grandmother, Natsu Nagai, a cultured but unstable woman from a samurai family, who hardly allowed the boy out of her sight. During World War II Mishima was excused military service, but he served in a factory. This plagued Mishima throughout his life - he had survived shamefully when so many others had been killed. "I believe one should die young in his age," wrote Mishima's friend, the writer Hasuda, who committed suicide after the war.

The largely autobiographical work reflected Mishima's masochistic fantasies. His preoccupation with the body, its beauty and degeneration, marked several of his later novels. Mishima wished to create for himself a perfect body that age could not make ugly

http://www.kirjasto.sci.fi/mishima.htm

http://jlit.net/authors_works/mishima_yukio.html
 

The Vulture

Banned
That's a really interesting thought. I think a coup would certainly fail (due in no small part to the US not wanting it to succeed in the least), but that it was even attempted ITTL means that politics in Asia, particularly Japan, are going to be far different. Maybe the US stations more troops in Okinawa as a deterrent, not wanting a repeat of 1941.
 
Mishima did not want a return to by-gone days, he wanted by-gone thoughts. He was against the Emperor for his acceptence of things, yet he felt in the abstract sense it was an important symbol. Like people who respect the President as an office but not the man.
 

maverick

Banned
That's a really interesting thought. I think a coup would certainly fail (due in no small part to the US not wanting it to succeed in the least), but that it was even attempted ITTL means that politics in Asia, particularly Japan, are going to be far different. Maybe the US stations more troops in Okinawa as a deterrent, not wanting a repeat of 1941.

Indeed, although the USA already has bases on the Home Islands, mostly naval, and they're already controlling Japanese politics, spending millions to keep the Liberal Democrats elected and the Socialists out of power.

The problem is that Japanese society in the post-war is hardly the type to allow for great social and political divisions and unrest as it would happen with say, Argentina, Iran, Peru or even South Korea.

Japan in 1970 is like Mexico or Spain: quiet, indifferent, uncaring, monolithic, grey, ruled by a bureaucratic pro-american party in a one-party state...

You'd need to go back, perhaps to the Korean war or MacArthur, fuck up reconstruction, have Korea go red, maybe with thousands of refugees and a less stable post-war period...the Japanese society in the 1970s might be more prone to government destabilization and military take over, but you still need willing officers...

Mishima did not want a return to by-gone days, he wanted by-gone thoughts. He was against the Emperor for his acceptence of things, yet he felt in the abstract sense it was an important symbol. Like people who respect the President as an office but not the man.

True, which is why I think that he knew from the beginning he was doomed. He wanted to make a statement and have a podium for his suicide...
 
Fenwick: That was also the case with the "Imperial Way" officers back in '36 IIRC.

I don't think it would work, mainly because of the Emperor as head of state, which precludes a fiery Chavez-like officer from rallying the lower ranks, 100% chance of US intervention, and general apathy among the civilian population.
 

maverick

Banned
Fenwick: That was also the case with the "Imperial Way" officers back in '36 IIRC.

As I remember it, the Kodoha faction was all for the "Showa Restoration", although whether they meant the Showa Emperor as Man or institution, I can't quite recall...
 
The rest of the Army (or MSDF, or Air Force depending) would contain the garrison in question, then ask the civilian government for instructions. Either there are some executions of the plot leaders for treason, or a complex political deal is worked out, depending on who's PM at the time. Nixon orders closer CIA monitoring of Japan.
 
It'd be a bloody political mess for the ruling party. A couple cabinet ministers would be sacked, but any attempted coup would be crushed.
 

maverick

Banned
I never asked if it would work. I asked WI some men in the JSDF answered his call for a coup?

Oh, sorry if I derailed the thread:eek:

These officers are purged from command, the public and the ruling parties are now paranoid about the Japanese Self Defense Forces, and so are the Americans.

If they hold that headquarters and perhaps some other buildings for a few days in 1970, they could create a real crisis, and Prime Minister Eisaku Sato and the LDP will lose or win popularity and power depending on how they deal with this.

Once surrounded by regular elements of the Tokyo Police and loyalist officers of the JSDF, Mishima gives his speech and commits suicide, disappointing those who thought he'd lead the revolution.

If Mishima nevertheless allows this to go to his head and decides to fight to the end and die the death he thought he deserved in WWII, we could see a Waco style siege, but with the regular army, ending in many casualties, suicides and the loss of the headquarter if some decide to fight to the last man and others surrender.

The public could be polarized and shocked by the disaster, the Sato ministry fall in 1970 and be replaced by an earlier Tanaka ministry, if elections are not held and the public turns against a LDP now perceived as incompetent, if elections are called in 1970 or 1971, the opposition is unlikely to win, but say the crisis propels a ministry much like the one of IOTL 1993-1996...the Socialists are in power for some months, the minority government collapses as the US is somewhat hostile to them and vice-versa, etc.

Cultural effects of a known and popular author wanting to overthrow the government and the ensuing bloodbath would be harder to predict. Maybe the youths are more politicized, pro-Mishima groups appear throughout the 1970s and are seen as a menace by the public and the Government, the USA could funnel even more money to keep the LDP in power.

Extreme rightists following Mishima's example could engage in terrorism, giving the Japanese Red Army Faction a run for it's money, and emulate acts like the assassination of the Socialist Party Chairman of 1960.

A culture of security in which the JSDF take a different role in the late cold war could be an interesting effect.

Just a thought.
 
The LDP was unshakeable (like the INC until 1977, the PRI until 2000 and Israel's Labour Party until 1977): there'd be some factional maneuvering, a Cabinet shuffle, maybe even a new PM. There was no strong central leadership from the PMO most of the time: in that sense the Cabinet was quite close to primus inter pares.
 

maverick

Banned
The LDP was unshakeable (like the INC until 1977, the PRI until 2000 and Israel's Labour Party until 1977): there'd be some factional maneuvering, a Cabinet shuffle, maybe even a new PM. There was no strong central leadership from the PMO most of the time: in that sense the Cabinet was quite close to primus inter pares.

That is without mentioning that the Socialist Party could only get 21% of the vote, tops, they were divided between rightists and leftists following the murder of Inejiro Asanuma in 1960, and the USA would not have liked to see them in power, at all...but I found the idea interesting.

IOTL, it took an earthquake destroying Kobe and the economy to collapse to shake the LDP out of power...
 
Tatenokai had either 300 to 2,000 members depending on the source. Given a chance I would say atleast 10% are willing to take up arms an fight for the long haul. So that is 30 to 200 trained die hards joining in the coup, for general terms I can see a larger number for when "things look good."

The coup would fail utterly, yet the way people view the right politics, as well as the military in and of it self could face a few years of trouble.
 
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