The consequences of an errant shell(story only thread)

[johnboy]

18 November 1906, Vienna, Dual Monarchy

Count Alois Lexa von Aehrenthal had only held the job of Foreign Minister for two weeks, but one thing was already clear. Austro-Hungary must be able to chart it's own course in the Balkans, and that meant a resolution of the Bosnian issue. The huge amount of investment the empire had poured into the region over the last 30 years could not be shown to have benefited another power and currently the dual monarchy did not actually control the territory, only administered it on behalf of the Ottomans.

They literally could no longer afford the territory being restored to it's nominal Ottoman masters, however, Russia would be sure to be an objector to Austria assuming full control. It was a problem he would need to work on, a solution he would have to find.

 

[johnboy]

7 January 1907, Whitehall, London, United Kingdom

Sir Edward Grey had always favoured a negotiated compromise and now that the Liberals, led by "C-B", were in power, as Foreign Minister he had worked for some time towards an acceptable solution. He had spent his Christmas break putting the final touches on a document that would form the basis on which Sir Arthur Nicholson, the British ambassador to the court of the Tsarina, could negotiate an agreement with the Russians.

Good will, strained since the Russo-Japanese war, needed to be established and Campbell-Bannerman had asked the King himself to visit, a visit now scheduled for early March, to help smooth the way. Edward VII and the Queen would take their own grandchildren with them, in an effort to be as informal and relaxed as possible. Grey had been briefed by naval intelligence in 1904 when in opposition and the expectation had been a Japanese win. He had thought an accommodation was needed then and in the light of Russia's war win and improved position it was even more necessary to end "The Great Game" in light of Russia's powerful Eastern position. The first part of the previous diplomatic strategy, using Japan to distract and blunt Russia, had failed. The second part encompassed the Entente Cordiale with France, partly in the hope of France restraining the ambitions of her Russian ally, as well as acting as a facilitator for better relations between Britain and Russia. It was a dangerous plank itself, as he was well aware of France's own ambitions towards Germany.

He now needed more than ever to strengthen the Russian relationship. For many years, Britain had been diplomatically neurotic of every Russian move. Using tactics similar to its economic marriage to Iran, Britain had taken Tibet under its wing by first invading it in 1903 and then making it a trade partner, ultimately allowing Tibet to accumulate a large debt and therefore forfeit even more power over to Britain. Though each of the Great Powers had been spared from outright war, “The Great Game” was a constant factor in Britain and Russia's political psyche.

He looked at the lines drawn on the two maps of Persia and Afghanistan. These represented proposed spheres of Russian and British influence, as well as "neutral zones". Of course, the two affected countries, Afghanistan and Persia, had not been consulted. With the government in Russia seemingly becoming more Liberal, perhaps a successful compromise could be reached. The other emerging threat was Germany, who was clearly not about to let Britain lead the way at sea, already planning on laying down it's own class of four dreadnoughts in the wake of the revolutionary HMS Dreadnought.

 

[johnboy]

Olga I, official 10th birthday portrait

 

[johnboy]

20 January 1907, Palace Square, St Petersburg, Russian Empire

Baron Georgii Karlovich Stackelberg, newly promoted to full General, had been more shocked than surprised by his elevation to Chief of the General Staff. His actions at Sandepu, where he had "done a Nelson", had brought the displeasure of his then superior, Kuropatkin.

In the aftermath of the war as a whole, his actions had now been seen as pivotal to the victory and he had seemingly reaped the rewards of such. He had been to the Winter Palace to be sworn in by the child Empress and had then talked at length with both the Regent and Prime Minister, the talks later expanded to include a committee of six Duma members.

He had his own ideas in relation to the army and what was required, summarized with six main points. These were:

1) A reversal of the monetary spend from fortress artillery to field artillery, with an emphasis on field artillery that would fight with the troops at Divisional level and could fight an offensive, as well as defensive war
2) Greater investment in railways, as the war in the Far East had shown all too well the vulnerability of not being able to deploy troops rapidly to a battlefield
3) Construction of more barracks in regional cities to assist in the rapid call up or deployment of troops and so that greater quantities of ammunition and equipment could be stored and more training could be conducted.
4) An increase in held supplies of ammunition and shells, with the lessons for the Japanese war showing clearly how quickly these were burned through in an offensive battle
5) More field exercises to keep troops trained and to test the competence(or otherwise) of commanders
6) Greater expenditure on the nursing corps and active recruiting of more women for such

Lastly, he wished for a committee to be set up to investigate new innovations such as armoured cars and aircraft and how they may be able to assist in urban security and reconnaissance, respectively.

He had a big job but was enthusiastic to start. Younger than previous appointees, he would have time to make changes and leave a personal stamp on the job. He was aware that at least some of the funding for these proposed initiatives would have to come from the navy, but he was convinced that most, if not all, were needed.

 

[johnboy]

1 Mar 1907 Peterhof Palace, near St Petersburg, Russian Empire

Bertie and Alex, otherwise known as King Edward VII and Queen Alexandra, had sailed to Russia on board the Victoria and Albert and were met at Peterhof on the Gulf of Finland by the two Russian Imperial Yachts, the Standart and Polar Star. He had brought with him Ponsonby and Fortescue, as well as Admiral "Jackie" Fisher and General Sir John French. He had refused to take a Cabinet Minister, hoping to keep the meeting as informal and family orientated as possible. The crossing of the North Sea had been rough, Bertie finding the most amusement in the fact that the worst affected was "Jackie" Fisher himself.

His four Grand Niece's, including the new monarch, Olga, were growing into pretty girls. It was nice to hear them squealing with laughter as the played with Alex in the palace grounds near the trick water fountains. Security was tight, almost impossibly high.

"Don't you find this situation intolerable?" asked Fisher. "Would it not be better to give more freedoms?" asked Hardinge, his own private secretary. Russia's Foreign Minister, Isvolsky, sighed "Our people are not used to so many freedoms. Too much too soon without education and it will be misused. So many demands for impossible reforms. We have started, but must keep the pace steady but slow." Michael concurred.

As the talk meandered on after tea, eventually Michael's sister Olga arrived accompanied by the third sister, Grand Duchess Marie. "She wanted to say goodnight". As he looked into the seven year old girl's smiling face and huge blue eyes, dubbed "Marie's saucers" in the family, he said to Michael "Look after her, I know what it's like to lose family. After all isn't that what we work for-the future of the world we leave the children."

Michael relived the vision of his own brother's body and the story of his own grandfather's assassination. "If only I have the courage", he murmured to Bertie. "I am quite sure you have the courage Michael", Bertie said. "I only hope you have the time."

 

[johnboy]

12 May 1907 Fredensborg Palace, Kingdom of Denmark

Sir Edward Grey, Bt, applied his signature to the agreement in his capacity as British Foreign Minister. Here in Denmark, a country both powers shared royal ties with, two powers so formally opposed for so long were to move closer together. Contrary to how many in Imperial Germany including the Kaiser were to view it, the Anglo-Russian Entente had little to do with Germany at all at that time.

Japan's catastrophic defeat and the peace that followed had eliminated Anglo-Russian rivalry there. During negotiations Izvolsky had, as expected, raised the issue of the straits. This was purely now a matter of prestige. Russia had only a limited Black Sea Fleet, so the closing of the straits suited her well enough. Ultimately he suspected that Izvolsky hoped to get theoretical permission for theoretical Russian warships to transit the Dardanelles in order to show that a Liberal Foreign Minister could achieve results his reactionary predecessor's could not. Grey had answered in support. His words to Campbell-Bannermen supported this position "Good relations with Russia must mean that our old policy of closing the straits to her and throwing our weight against her at any conference of the powers must be abandoned". To Izvolsky he had said "The agreement's effect on British public opinion would be such as to very much facilitate a discussion of the Straits question if it came up later on". Izvolsky seemed satisfied, but the statement had a fall back position which was to cause trouble the following year.

The agreement and it's agreed Persian partition was essentially a settlement of differences, not a disguised alliance. It's two main weaknesses were Russian continued ambitions and British long entrenched Russophobia. In 1907 both Britain and Russia supposed that they had no quarrel with Germany except in regards to France. The Russian's were pledged to protect French independence, a long standing alliance that secured many French loans, loans being spent on civilian and military infrastructure, particularly railroads. The British were committed over Morocco, which had flared the previous year. Neither appeared a dangerous issue. An accommodation had been reached about Morocco to secure German economic and Spanish and French political interests and Germany was no longer attempting to subordinate France.

It was to take the commencement of a new naval race later in 1907 to start a drift apart from Germany for Britain. For Russia it was the aftermath of the Bosnian Crisis of 1908 that left a bitter taste, although she was to achieve some face saving crumbs even from that.

 

[johnboy]

19 May 1907, Ulitsa Zodchego Rossi 3, Fontanka District, St Petersburg

Pyotr Arkadyevich Stolypin had tried to use a carrot and stick approach during his time so far as Interior Minister. The carrot was the changes that were slowing leeching out into Russian society, with power slowly shifting away from the autocracy since the death of Nicholas II. The stick had been a boosting of Okhrana numbers and a reversal of the previous position of Nicholas II that had led to the pardoning so many revolutionaries that had been jailed or exiled.

He had read the the report found with the young lawyer when he had been arrested, one of a series. Then he read the Okhrana file, "Alexander Fyodorovich Kerensky, 26 years old, married, two young sons, native of Simbirsk and Tashkent, graduated St Petersburg University 1904, receiving degree in History, Philosophy and Law. Married Olga Lvovna Baranovskaya, daughter of Major General Lev Baranovskaya(commander 2nd Ulhans), two sons under 3. Has a mistress, Nadia Poronova, with a daughter, unknown to his wife." He was well known as a defense lawyer for revolutionaries and revolutionary posters had been found at the law office, far to many to merely be "samples" needed for his client's defense.

Stolypin had shown the report to Izvolsky and the contents were both remarkably perceptive and at the same time agreed with both their private views. Whilst the other reports had focused on ways to effect change inside Russia, this one focused on how to achieve a situation internationally that was safe enough that these internal issues could be focused upon.

It's main platform was setting up a series of "buffer states" around Russia to deflect the ambitions of the other major competing powers. For Japan it noted that this had been achieved by effectively using Korea as a shield or "trip wire". For England it proposed dividing dividing Persia and Afghanistan into spheres of influence, a position that had just been undertaken(although this report was a year old).

For the Ottoman Empire, it proposed the setting up of a Greco-Armenian-Laz state, using some Russian but mainly Ottoman lands. In regards the straits it proposed "Russia does not need political control of the straits, it simply needs to be confident in it's ability to traverse the straits for both commercial and military needs. This ability would best be achieved if Constantinople itself was not under the control of any single power, this being best achieved by fostering the ambitions of other non hostile powers in Eastern Thrace, leaving the option in case of war of supporting one or the other power in control of either the East or the West."

In regards to Germany, it proposed setting up an independent state of Poland to act as a buffer against Germany. "Poland's main territorial ambitions would then lie to the West and South, against Germany and the Dual Monarchy, where unrecovered Polish lands still lie. Different to Russia both linguistically, ethnically and religiously, Poland has always been a poor fit within the Russian state, costing more to administer than it has ever been worth either economically or, in particular, militarily and strategically when one considers the dubious loyalty of it's populace".

Only against Austro-Hungary was the setting up of a buffer state not proposed. "As long as Austria controls Galacia, we must stay on the border and wait. Russia cannot afford the creation of a Ukrainian state in Galacia as this will encourage nationalism within our own Little Russians. If Poland is created, we would share a common cause in Galacia, uniting much of our foreign policy."

Stolypin had talked at length to Izvolsky. It was time to offer this one the carrot rather than the stick and see if he was willing to affect some change from the inside rather than from outside.

 

[johnboy]

11 September 2014 121 Blake Rd, Annapolis, Maryland, USA

Midshipman Dyson Wallace flipped again to the page and read the extract from "The Early Dreadnoughts and the First Naval Power Struggle", by the Canadian Naval historian Barry Gough, looking for inspiration for an assignment he had left far too late to start.

"In 1906 the R.N launched the Dreadnought, making all existing battleships, including those of the R.N itself, obsolete. The British had to start the naval race all over again, with a limited start and in a race that was becoming ever more expensive all the time. In 1907 they tried to set an example by reducing their program, however, this only increased the temptation for the Germans to catch up. In November 1907 Tirpitz, who had wide influence, introduced a supplementary naval law, with a large program of dreadnought building. The British Government had to increase their naval estimates in March 1908 and, worse still, looked forward to greater expenditure the following year. The naval race seemed senseless to them. They were confident they could win it, although at great expense.

They had no quarrel with Germany(or so they supposed) and they could not understand her reluctance to have her limited overseas trade and colonial empire dependent on British goodwill. They could find a rational explanation for Germany's building only in hostile intent. In reality, there was no rational explanation at all. Germany had drifted into naval expansion partly for domestic policy reasons, partly from a desire for grandeur. They hoped a great navy would make the British respect or even fear them, but did not understand that unless they actually out-built the British, the only effect would be to estrange them.

The British had no solution for breaking the deadlock, only that the Germans should cut their program. This would lessen tensions and save money for both sides, they supposed. The British never understood the political differences between the two countries. In the U.K the taxpayers were also the ruling classes and economy was of immediate benefit to them. In Germany the ruling classes did not pay the taxes, economy brought them no advantage, but rather, since it reduced the contracts and income flow by which they kept the Reichstag happy, in fact increased their political difficulties. In addition, whilst the British naval program was settled each March, in Germany it was laid down years ahead, making changes hard to effect.

With neither side able to reach an understanding with each other, the laying down and building of ships accelerated, dragging in firstly second tier naval powers like France, Russia, Italy, Japan and Austria and finally smaller powers such as Spain, Greece, the Netherlands and the Ottoman Empire, quite aside from the U.S.A and the South American countries. Dreadnoughts were the new symbol of prestige and everyone who was anyone had to have them."

 

[johnboy]

18 June 1907 Tauride Place, St Petersburg, Russian Empire

Kerensky had been shocked by the rapidity of events. Firstly, being arrested by Okhrana agents with incriminating material in his office had been foolish in the extreme. Under Russian law permission would have had to have been sought to search his home, permission his carefully built contacts in the St Petersburg police may well have warned him of. This was not the case at a business premises. It was laziness that kept such documents at work, laziness that he had thought he would pay dearly for.

They had enough for a five year sentence to Siberia, plus information on his mistress and illegitimate daughter that would also blow his marriage wide open. Yet he now remarkably found himself an Under Secretary in the Foreign Ministry, working directly with Isvolsky.

In the last two months he had met both Witte and the Regent, Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich. Perhaps there was some sincerity to their claims, they certainly seemed sincere enough.In either case, co-operation was the only possible course of events.

 

[johnboy]

28 September 1907, New Admiralty Yard, St Petersburg, Russian Empire

Admiralty Yard's Chief Constructor, Dmitry Skvortsov watched her proceed down the slip. It had been a long and uneasy development process. Originally conceived in 1903 as two battleships, materials for the two lead ships had been gathered in 1904 and the first, Andrey Pervozvanny, had been laid down in April 1905, before being almost immediately suspended. The hull shape had been poor and by the time the lessons of the Japanese war had been learned, it was obvious the whole design needed to be rethought.

The navy's budget had been cut in 1906 and in the finish it had been decided on a redesign based on the cruiser Rurik, currently under construction by Vickers. A second cruiser, Imperator Nicholi II had been ordered from Vickers in September 1906 and these two adopted a modified Rurik design that used only 8 inch guns, with an extra mid line turret, giving them an armament of 14 8 inch guns and creating a division of four ships. They were smaller, cheaper and faster(22 knots) than the originally conceived battleships.

Despite this, as Andrey Pervozvanny slid down the slip, as her sister Imperator Pavel I was to do at the Baltic Yard twelve days hence, Skvortsov knew all to well that the ships themselves, still two years from completion, were already outdated, made obsolete by HMS Dreadnought and her recently launched cousin HMS Invincible. Currently however, the navy would have to make do. Whilst the army's budget had soared from 32.1 million pounds equivalent in 1900 to 52.6 million pounds, the navy's had gone from 8.4 million pounds in 1900 to 8.0 million. With warships becoming ever more expensive, it could mean only one thing, decommissioning older, comparatively useless ships and building ships that were economically feasible.

 

[johnboy]

Andrey Pervozvanny plan

 

[johnboy]

16 December 1907, Tauride Palace, St Petersburg, Russian Empire

The Duma had been dissolved upon the Tsarina's command, but happily at this stage. Most of the party's concerned were content to face new elections in March in light of the new constitution, due to come into effect on 22 March 1908. Witte was happy in a general sense with how things were going. The Duma was becoming less fractious and was learning to work with and have an understanding of the Council of Ministers.

Revolutionary activity was far from stopped of course, but it was on the decline and the number of strikes across the country had dropped right away, boosting industrial production with the increased reliability of the workforce. Most dangerous were the Union of Socialists-Revolutionaries, or Maximalists, the far left wing of the SR's, which were still wedded to pursuing their agenda through violent means and the far left of the SD's, now called the Bolsheviks, under the leadership of Lenin. Some progress had been made, however, and some former SR fighters had gravitated to a more peaceful position. There was also a far right reactionary group, "Greater Russia", based on two members of the Union of Russian Landholders in the Duma that held court at the Vladimir Palace among the equally disaffected members of Grand Duke Vladimir Alexandrovich's family. All would bear watching but the Okhrana, or secret police, had been well funded, their energy sapping the resources of the far left with many arrests in the last 18 months.

The new constitution was again an incremental step in the evolution and flirtation with democracy in Imperial Russia. The 1906 constitution provided for a two-housed parliament, without whose approval no laws were to be enacted in Russia. This legislature was composed of an upper house, known as the State Council, and a lower house, known as the State Duma. Members of the upper house were half appointed by the Tsar, with the other half being elected by various governmental, clerical and commercial interests. Members of the lower house were to be chosen by various classes of the Russian people, through a complex scheme of indirect elections—with the system being weighted to ensure the ultimate preponderance of the propertied classes. While the Duma held the power of legislation and the right to question the Tsarina's ministers, it did not have control over their appointment or dismissal, which was reserved to the monarch alone. Nor could it alter the constitution, save upon the Empress's initiative. The Tsarina retained an absolute veto over legislation, as well as the right to dismiss the Duma at any time, for any reason he found suitable. The Emperor also had the right to issue decrees during the Duma's absence—though these lost their validity if not approved by the new parliament within two months.

The changes in the 1908 constitution were subtle, rather than revolutionary, aside from one point, however it undeniably grew the power of the Duma. In regards the State Council, the Duma would now appoint 40% of the members based on party lines, The Tsarina 40%, with 15% being appointed by commercial and government interests and 5% by the Russian Orthodox Church. In regards the Council of Ministers, three would now come from the Duma, the Duma President as Minister for Parliament and Administrative Services and two members of differing parties as Ministers Without Portfolio.

The only other significant change that was revolutionary was the following of what had started in Finland in 1906, with women being given the full right to vote alongside men. Their were also minor changes in the definition of who was eligible to vote. The dynasty had made a number of popular changes as well, namely the donation of the Summer Garden Palace on the Fontanka as a soup kitchen and short term accommodation for the poor, the donation of Ropsha as a site for a University taking only scholarship students and even the opening of the Hermitage wing of the Winter Palace as a paid museum. Gatchina had been sold to the army as an technical college and had an airfield under construction for aviation research. Pavlovsk had been sold as an accommodation center, museum and zoo. Massandra Palace in the Crimea had been purchased by the Yusupovs. The three places in Estonia and Poland had been purchased by the state.

 

[johnboy]

2 April 1908 Arbat District, Moscow, Russian Empire

Victor Chernov was in Moscow visiting his mother and was going over the results of the Second Duma Election, which was well reported in the local papers. It had been a good change for the Trudoviks, with the picking up of more seats at the expense of the Kadets, with the amount of unaligned Independents, so high in the first Duma, dramatically falling away.

The new Duma, scheduled to start sitting 30 April would consist of:

Constitutional Democratic Party(Kadets) 148 seats(down 26)
Trudoviks(Laborers) 121 seats(up 22)
Socialist Revolutionary Party(SR's) 37 seats(up 3)
Octoberist Party 44 seats(up 26)
Russian Social Democratic Labour Party(Mensheviks)(up 22) 35 seats
Union of Landholders 8 seats(down 1)
Russian Social Democratic Labour Party(Bolsheviks)(far left revolutionary) 9 seats(up 2)
Monarchist Party (rightest) 4 seats(up 2)
National Minorities 82 seats(up 17)
Independents 9 seats(down 45)

Chernov, along with Pavel Milyukov, the Kadet's leader, would also sit on the Council of Ministers, which should prove enlightening, he thought.

 

[johnboy]

14 May 1908 Yildiz Palace, Constantinople, Ottoman Empire

Abdul Hamid II reread the contents of the letter with increasing alarm. From a group of officers in the 3rd Army and officials in Macedonia and Thrace, entitled the "Committee of Union and Progress", it bluntly stated "the [Ottoman] dynasty would be in danger" if he were not to bring back the constitution that he had previously suspended since 1878.

It was alarming in the extreme, especially when one considered the location of the plotters concerned. The Macedonian question had been a pressing issue for some time, fostered by both Austria and Russia. He had smashed the Armenian problem in 1892 and 1893, but the issues in the Balkans would not go away that easily. The 3rd Army, located in Salonkia, had easy access to Constantinople and at the same time could leave the Balkans uncovered if it marched. That seemed the most likely solution.

 

[johnboy]

16 May 1908 No 2 Ballhausplatz, Vienna, Dual Monarchy

Alois Lexa von Aehrenthal had no misgivings when he penned the missive to Izvolsky. He had succeeded Goluchowski as Foreign Minister in almost the same time frame as Conrad had succeeded Beck as Chief of Staff at the army. Beck had been cautious and timid militarily as he had doubted Austro-Hungary's ability to fight a great war. When one considered the army estimates of the great powers, the Dual Monarchy's estimates of 13 million pounds equivalent expenditure hardly matched up to Russia's 52.6, Germany's 38.9, France's 34.5, Great Britain's 26.2 or even Italy's 15.2. In addition her naval expenditures of 2.2 million pounds were minuscule compared to all other powers, such as Great Britain's 33.2, Germany's 17.8 or even Russia's 8.0.

Conrad, however, was ready to plan beyond the monarchy's resources. He favoured a war versus Serbia or even Italy, mainly to restore the monarchy's prestige. To him a war was the solution in itself, the actual opponent mattered less than restoring that prestige.

Aehrenthal was not as aggressive as all that, but he also favoured a "great stroke" to restore prestige and saw the potential annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina as that great stroke. It would give Vienna the chance to show how well they could govern a Slav people when free from Hungarian interference as well. He had reason to be confident here, as, of all multi ethnic empires, Austro Hungary had done best in terms of equality of purpose and civil liberties, at least by the standards of 1908.

As he penned his thoughts to Izvolsky in the secret letter, the first step of gaining Russia's tacit agreement, he prided himself on "knowing Russia"(a common diplomatic failure) and imagined he could keep her in step with his agenda by vague references to the long obsolete League of the Three Emperors.

 

[johnboy]

2 July 1908 West Wing, General Staff Building, Palace Square, St Petersburg, Russian Empire

Izvolsky had been keen to support the Aehrenthal's proposals in regards to Austrian annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, if they would come to the party with approval for his own his own dearest wish, guaranteed access via the straits. Grey had already committed the U.K's support(or so he imagined). All that would be needed was to broach the matter with the other great powers.

Kerensky had been much more circumspect and had advised him to have a fall back position lest things all go wrong or he was outmaneuvered on the issue of the straits themselves. A fall back position that would be seen to be still looking after Slavic interests in the Balkans. It was just as well that this was adopted, as the first shift in the solid basis of the plan was to occur only six hours after Ivolsky sent his counter offer back to Aehrenthal on the afternoon of the 3rd, when the Ottoman 3rd Army decamped and started to gather for a march on Constantinople.

 

[johnboy]

Izvolvsy's proposal for the division of Bosnia-Herzegovina, establishing a more natural border on the River Drina-purple= area to Serbia, green= area to Montenegro

 

[johnboy]

26 July 1908 Yildiz Palace, Constantinople, Ottoman Empire

Abdul Hamid II had had little choice. With the 3rd Army marching on the capital, crowds had flocked to a huge demonstration in the city on the 22nd. After dithering on the following day, he had issued an irade announcing the restoration of the suspended constitution of 1876; the next day, further irades abolished espionage and censorship, and ordered the release of nearly all political prisoners.

It was perceived as victory for both Muslim and Christian subjects of the Empire, however, it was to sadly prove a false dawn, with little in the way of real changes over the next three years.

 

[johnboy]

Crowds demonstrating in the Sultanahmet, Constantinople

 

[johnboy]

6 October 1908 Le Grand Hotel, Paris, French Republic

It was a fully fledged disaster for Izvolsky. He had met Aehrenthal on the 15th September at Buchlov and they had struck their bargain. Izvolsky supposed that both questions, Bosnia and the straits, involving as they did changes to the Treaty of Berlin, would have to be submitted to a European Conference. He had therefore gone on the first stage of collecting the approval of other powers, starting with France. No sooner had he arrived in Paris than it had been to the news that Aehrenthal had proclaimed the annexation of the two provinces, minus the agreed amount.

To make matters worse, within a week, the agreement was repudiated by his own Government. Izvolsky still hoped to gain the straits, but the French would commit themselves neither one way nor the other and in London he ran into difficulties. British opinion supposed that, with the Young Turk revolution, the Ottoman Empire was on a more Liberal course and they did not want to weaken her. The British had been unimpressed with the Russian's conduct in Persia and being difficult about the straits would serve to keep them in line. Grey insisted that, if the rule of the straits were to be revised, "there must be a form of reciprocity", that is, warships of other powers should be able to transit into the Black Sea. No proposal could ever be more repugnant to Russia.

Izvolsky had to change course, and on his return to St Petersburg demanded the annexation be put to an international conference, now casting himself as the protector of Slavic interests. This indeed put the affair on a different footing. Aehrenthal had intended to humiliate Serbia, not Russia. His references to the League of the Three Emperors was genuine enough and his main aim was to escape being a satellite of Germany's. The German's were bound to support Austria and Bulow, the German Foreign Minister wrote to Vienna on 30 October "I will regard whatever decision you come to as being the correct one".

The affair dragged on, however, on 9th February 1909 Germany and France signed an understanding on Morocco and on 26th February the French informed the Russians that the Bosnian affair was "not the sort of thing that threatened either countries interests directly and that French public opinion would not tolerate a war on such a shallow pretext". The British were amenable to a conference, but at a conference it would be revealed that Izvolsky had agreed to the annexation. Early in March the Russian government formally decided that they would not intervene in a war between Austro-Hungary and Serbia; this indeed had been obvious all along.

Ten days later the Serbs also acquiesced. They had no allies and little choice. Conrad, spoiling for a fight, had to be content with Serbia's humiliation. This did not concern the Germans, who cared nothing for Serbia's humiliation, but much for Russia's. The Bosnian crisis was over, and war had been avoided, but it had driven a deep wedge between Russia and both Germany and Austro-Hungary. Morocco firstly and now Bosnia had pushed Europe closer to war.