So i've noticed a trope on this forum, and point me to contradictions if i'm wrong. It seems as though the Confederacy, if it survives, always allies with either England, Nazi Germany, or South Africa. Once i saw them teamed up with Brazil as pariah slave states. So what i've wondered is, who could the Confederacy align with that is reasonable?
For those who want it, a rough TL on how they gain independence: The New Madrid Quake (1811) strikes in a different time, place and much harder. The Ohio river, for a time, becomes unnavigable. Because their route to the South is cut off, Kentucky invests more heavily in rail lines (the govt might later boost this investment to more easily move supplies/troops around the country. With deeper economic/infrastructure ties to the South, they are pushed towards the Confederacy. (In OTL, the lower fraction of the state formed a Confederate govt. ITTL, a piece of Northern Kentucky goes.) Besides having a defensible river boundary, the loss of Kentucky is psychological blow to the Union. (Lincoln may even refuse to invade there, much like Robert E Lee's refusal to invade Virginia). The war is fought by proxy, with a great deal of blood spilled in an attempt to liberate OTL West Virginia. Meanwhile, John Hunt Morgan, mirroring his Great Ride, sweeps up into Ohio. The north sues for peace, and Ohio is traded for a division of Arizona and New Mexico.
The Confederates eventually acquire a piece of Sonora from Mexico, giving them a tiny pacific Coastline. Slavery is abolished amicably, with with black and white populations living largely in separate cities. Whites gravitate towards to coast and ex slave populations condense around the western river border. Their government, after perhaps a few revolutions, is a combination of autonomous communes, soft fascism and theocracy. There is some much revered Baptist equivalent of the pope, as well as a 'President'. All large plantations were dissolved in the seventies (the Reformation, rather than Reconstruction) into small farms, so their exists a rough analogy of a middle class. The coal from Appalachia fuels their industrial revolution, with populations booming in Atlanta, Galveston Island, and along the Ohio.
Hopefully this Confederacy is believable enough to exist and prosperous enough to stick around. What I'm really curious about though, is what would their foreign relations look like? Obviously the butterflies have changed the world significantly already, but not beyond speculation. So, how might they go about making it in the world?
My initial thoughts:
The theme seems to be that the Confederacy and the US are mortal enemies from the beginning However, if American history is any indication, enemies can become friends and visaversa. So i could see them having a "special relationship" the US, with the split being buried in the past. Or west Virginia is one of many proxy wars along the border, A hazy conflict that stretches through generations, from Missouri to California.
Secondly, it seems to be a trope that the Confederacy always tries to just annex Mexico. Couldn't it be possible that they engage diplomatically with central America, because they will be needing to find some friends to provide a counterweight to the US. This may extend to the Caribbean as well. Rather than just annex Cuba as is so common, perhaps the Confederacy provides Spain with some reassurance that their possessions will be protected. Or they help Cuba towards independence, and become the best of friends. I could very much see a southern oriented Confederacy that slowly liberates/purchases the Antilles from their European owners.
Another aspect i wonder about it Russia. First, if the Confederates would find natural allies in the Russians. Both being deeply religious, and both needing an ally in the Pacific, both excluded from European affairs. Likewise, i could see the US being pushed closer towards Russia, perhaps being permanently alienated by the British recognizing the Confederates.
Anyway, i could go on. Didn't even think about Asia, or the Scramble for Africa. Thoughts?