"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL

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As Howard's Presidency reached it's halfway point Labour figures began to look towards the future, early in January the page "Labour Primary 2009" appeared on Wikipedia with the following section:

 

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2007 saw a record number of Labour rebels, 57 Labour MPs voted against renewing Trident

“I cannot vote for this policy. I support nearly everything this government does but I'm simply not convinced renewing the Trident submarines makes the world a safer place," - London Senator Stephen Pound speaking on the Senate floor (2007)

Labour’s divisions only grew. In March trident came up for expansion and renewal. Supported by both Brown and Howard, the new improved Trident system would cost over £2 billion, up from 1.7 billion. Opposition to the expansion was particularly fierce in Scotland, where the weapons were stored less than an hour away from Scotland’s second city Glasgow. The plan was opposed by the Liberal Democrats, Greens and nearly 60 rebel Labour MPs, however with the help of the Conservatives and UKIP the Government passed the renewal with 386 votes to 260. Again the story became a divided Labour Party rescued by a united Conservative party. After sending more troops to Afghanistan and campaigning for an uncompromising expansion of Trident, Defence Secretary Tessa Jowell became enemy number one for the anti-war left.

Brown knew he had to assert himself against Howard and regain control over his party’s left flank. Brown had been working on his “Green re-branding” and he tabled Britain’s first ever “Climate Change Act.” The Act made it the duty of Secretaries of State to ensure that the net UK carbon account for all six Kyoto greenhouse gases to be cut by 80% by 2050. The Act aimed to enable the United Kingdom to become a low-carbon economy. The act also created an independent Committee on Climate Change. The bill passed with near universal support, the only people to vote against were five Tory rebels and the 31 UKIP MPs.

However any momentum Brown could have regained through the passage of this bill was once again overtaken by events. In March 2007, fifteen Royal Navy personnel were searching a merchant vessel when the Iranian Navy detained them. In the course of events, British forces claimed that the vessel was in Iraqi waters, but the Iranians insisted that they were in Iran's waters. Defence Secretary Tessa Jowell demanded the release of the servicemen, calling the seizure “unjust and wrong.”

Jowell meets Chinese Minister Cai Wu in Buckingham

"Needless to say, I am not advocating the bombing of any part of Iran. I am arguing that in international relations, the fear that we use force in some way is likely to make an aggressor think twice. The Iranians have no need to, knowing that we and the Americans have already shot our bolt in Iraq. That is why they feel free to abuse and humiliate our servicemen." - Micheal Howard’s op-ed in the Times (2007), Howard continually alluded to the use of force throughout the crisis, he wrote in his memoirs that the crisis brought Britain “dangerously close to war.”

The British ambassador to Iran went to the Iranian foreign ministry. The Iranians said they summoned him so they could protest against "the illegal entry of British sailors into Iranian waters". Yet the British said the meeting was at their request and that they had asked both for the immediate release of the personnel. President Micheal Howard said if diplomacy fails he would take other measures to release the British sailors and marines. When asked what other measures he refused to answer if military action was a possibility.

As the diplomatic situation heated up many in the Iranian Government believed an attack was imminent. Iran mobilised a record number of troops

Tensions grew further between the two nations. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he would release the sailors as “a gift” if he received a letter of apology from the British Government and acknowledgement that the vessel had strayed into Iranian waters.Brown and Foreign Secretary Charles Clarke were eager to take him up on this offer but Howard wanted to take a stronger stance. The standoff would last for several months with relations between the country becoming increasingly strained and tense until an intervention by Pope Benedict XVI and pressure from the international community forced the Supreme Leader to release the captives in late May. Whilst this was another victory for Howard’s standoffish foreign policy right before the election, relationships with Iran were irreversibly wounded.

Polling amongst Iranian citizens showed the Commonwealth overtaking the US as the "biggest threat to Iran" for the first time since in the 21st century

“The Howard doctrine in foreign policy was defined by high-stakes, high-aggression political manoeuvring, whether this was the EU rebate or the Iranian hostage crisis, the Howard doctrine is to keep raising the stakes, wait for your opponent to blink. Whilst in the short term it could be effective at getting Howard what we wanted, it permanently weakened Britain's international relations. The high stake nature meant Howard only had to blink once for the whole doctrine to come crashing down.” - John Kampfner, Micheal Howard and British Foreign Policy (2018)

The incident threw a further spanner in the works for Labour as Foreign Secretary Charles Clarke was forced to resign. Brown called for Reid to take back his old job as Foreign Secretary but this meant that Labour would need to find a new Senate leader. Three candidates appeared: International Development Secretary Charlie Falconer, North West Premier Jack Straw and Justice Secretary Geoff Hoon. Noticeably none of the candidates were senators, Senator John Hutton was seen as Reid’s natural successor but he recognised the election was nearly unwinnable and would be a poisoned chalice. The Senate Leadership election was seen as a battle between the two factions of the Labour Party. With Charlie Falconer supported by those loyal to Blair and Straw the candidate of the Brownites. Hoon found himself trapped between the two and was quickly eliminated. Falconer based his campaign around a “fresh start” and tried to distance himself from Brown, despite serving in his cabinet. Straw focused his campaign around his experience, a former cabinet secretary and two term Premier. The campaign was intense and close but eventually Straw won out.

The Conservatives also had to put forward a Senate candidate, established senators Francis Maude and Oliver Heald were considered frontrunners for the post but the Conservative leadership passed over them. The Conservative Party board was split between the modernisers who wanted to nominate moderate rising star MP George Osborne and the traditionalists who wanted Senator Chirs Grayling. However there was a dark horse compromise candidate who could lead the party to victory, after a nearly ten hour meeting of the inner circle the Conservatives announced they would be nominating David Davis. Again.

Comedy show "Have I Got News For You" had a very successful year some episodes getting ratings of several million. Some argued this was evidence of the increasing cynicism of the British public.

“And our new Chancellor is David Davis, Foreign Sec? David Davis. We’re hearing that Parliament has all been sacked and replaced by 650 identical David Davis clones” - Have I Got News For You Host Jeremy Clarkson (2007), the choice of Davis was widely mocked and many saw it as a clear example of Davis being more powerful in the Conservative party than Howard was.

The Liberal Democrats had no lack of candidates, four men put their names forward: Yorkshire MP Nick Clegg, South West First Minister Nick Harvey, East Anglia Senator Norman Lamb and Scotland Senator Micheal Moore. Clegg and Lamb were the frontrunners, with Clegg seen as the Lawsite and Lamb seen as a wildcard, popular with the membership a strong campaigner for Liberal Democrat hobby horses such as legalised marijuana. The battle was bitter and whilst most Senators backed Clegg or Moore, Lamb was the most popular with the membership and was elected as leader, it was now up to Lamb to lead the divided party in the 2007 election.

Using a least one case study, how effective was the "Howard Doctrine" in protecting long-term British interests? (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

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At the time the Liberal Democrats were the only party to fully elect their legislative leaders. For the Conservatives the leader was appointed by the President with advice from the National Board, whilst in Labour Senators would vote for the final two, who would then be elected by registered Labour supporters. The race attracted four candidates. "Lawsite" Yorkshire MP Nick Clegg, East Anglia Senator Norman Lamb, Scotland Senator Micheal Moore and South West First Minister Nick Harvey. Despite Law's unpopularity no candidate emerged from the party's left. Senator Chris Huhne and Former Home Secretary Simon Hughes considered running but decided against.

Clegg was the preferred candidate of the party's right, young and charismatic. However Clegg had few connections in the senatorial party and Laws' endorsement was more of an anchor on his campaign due to how overwhelmingly unpopular Laws was.

Lamb was a wildcard, frequently rebelling against the Laws leadership on issues such as medical marijuana and the Euro. Lamb wasn't associated with any particular wing of the party and ran as unifier, emphasising on his record on climate change, Lamb wanted the Lib Dems to become the "Greenest party."

Micheal Moore struggled to make an impact, also from the right of the party he was out-shinned by Clegg. Moore's campaign centred around him being a "safe pair of hands" citing his experience as a loyal Senate whip under Laws.

Nick Harvey ran as an outsider, the only candidate not to have a national profile as he was First Minister of the South West. Harvey cited his experience locally and wanted the party to expand its appeal by focusing on issues of law, order and defence that had been popular in the South West. However Harvey suffered from poor name recognition and failed to break through over the campaign.

Originally the race was seen as between Lamb and Moore, however at the hustings in Plymouth, Moore "sent audiences to sleep" whilst Clegg had a stunning performance polling high amongst all who watched the hustings this gave Clegg brief momentum hurling him into second place. However was always behind Lamb in polls, which underestimated Lamb's strength amongst the grassroots, a last minute surge allowed Lamb to win a clear victory.

"Norman Lamb has been a classic Lib Dem "local Senator." Lamb is a former councillor and local party campaigner who fought for 10 years to win his home seat of East Anglia from the Conservatives. But Lamb, 50, has also risen through the party ranks since his election in 1999. During the coalition, Kennedy appointed him his senatorial liaison to the Chancellor. Today Lamb has his eyes on his party's senate leadership. Lamb led a popular doorstep campaign to save local post offices in Anglia. But some in the party think they'll need more than local populism to hold the Senate Presidency." - Louise Radnofsky , Profile: Norman Lamb, The Guardian (2007)

 

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Labour activists in Oxford run into Conservative Mayor David Cameron campaigning for a local candidate

“2007 marked the turning point of Labour’s fall from grace. Economically stagnant and exhausted the party was dragging itself forward and as she did the faction knives were slowly drawn. The parallels with 1978 were striking.” - Protest and Power, David Kogan, (2019)

Confident Conservative activists in Glasgow

Against the backdrop of standoffs with Iran, prison overcrowding and trident reform it wasn’t massively surprising to see the Conservatives with a substantial polling lead. The Brown Labour Government was entering into its tenth year in power and the cracks were beginning to show. Resignations and scandals dragged Brown down, whilst Howard’s aggressive foreign policy, whilst diplomatically questionable, was certainly popular at home. Some polls showed the Conservatives with leads as high as nine points, which would see them flip 70 Senate seats.

Davis’ campaign was based around being a “strong Government” in comparison to the divided Labour and Liberal Democrat parties, President Howard featured frequently on campaign leaflets, hailed as the “tough talker” who saved the Iranian hostages, Howard had seen a bounce in polls. After spending two years as the Leader of the Opposition Davis had much high name-recognition than in 2005. Davis’ tough “SAS” campaign had faced mockery in the 2002 election when there was no clear “threat” to the Commonwealth however as tensions with Iran grew voters increasingly wanted politicians to be “strong of defence.”

Straw on the other hand had alienated nearly everyone in his party upon becoming Senate Leader, the left despised Straw for his authoritarian anti-veil policies in the North West and his euro-scepticism as leader of “LabourNO.” The Blairites saw Straw as a “Brown stooge” and would have much preferred Falconer or Hoon. The only real support Straw had was from the Prime Minister’s office. Straw based his campaign around his experience as both a cabinet minister and a Premier for one of the largest regions. Straw also tried to challenge Davis on his own turf. Jack Straw conducted a "land grab" on the Conservatives' agenda. Pointing out what he'd done in the North West to "balance" the law to protect the rights of victims. The Premier had reviewed the law on self-defence giving victims of crime more leniency on using force, even lethal. Saying "have a go heroes' must know the law is on their side if they want to protect their family or home." Straw also established a Victims' Advocate Scheme to give the victims of homicide and death-by-driving crimes a voice in court.

Labour's lead candidate Jack Straw visits a prison in Manchester

“In office since 1999, being "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" proved harder than it looked. Whilst crime in the North West started to fall, though other aspects of the notoriously accident-prone North West Premier’s brief did not improve. When the North West Parliament appointed Hutton acting Premier he complained he inherited a region “in a mess.” - Profile: Jack Straw, Micheal White (2008)

However if there was one person more toxic to BAME voters than Blair it was Straw. Polling reported droves of Labour’s core vote in cities like London, Leeds and Birmingham were intending to spoil their ballot or not vote at all, unconvinced any of the parties represented them. Straw moving his tanks onto the Conservative’s lawn had just allowed them to fight the election on their terrain. In doing so he left thousands of Labour voters behind.

In a viral video Straw is confronted by a Muslim family in Leeds over his support for the veil ban

Things weren’t going much better for the Liberal Democrats either. Lamb had the same problem of Straw, coming from the relative middle of his party he managed to alienate both sides. Lamb refused to abandon Laws’ policy of “equidistance”, stating that the Liberal Democrats would support whichever party got a plurality of the vote and would expect reciprocal support if they won the election. This enraged the grassroots Kennedyites who already felt unrepresented. At the same time those loyal to Laws were resentful of his turfing out and believed Clegg would have been a much stronger candidate. The very public turfing out of Laws and factional battles within the Senatorial party meant the Liberal Democrats struggled to take advantage of the authoritarian shift by both major parties.

Third parties saw mixed results, Bannerman was going into his eight year of his Senate leadership. He had spent most of the last decade fighting to bring discipline to his party, turfing out Kilroyites and radical reactionaries. His work hadn’t been in vain and UKIP was now a reasonably respectable party, however he spent most of his effort keeping his party under control rather than expanding it, and with the rightward shift of both the Conservatives and Labour he struggled to make an impact.

The Greens made little impact over their four years in the Senate. Green party rules meant they didn’t use whips or the whipping system. Whilst nice in principle this meant the party fragmented on several issues and the leader had very little power over their caucus aside from acting as a spokesperson to the media. The Green’s caucus had a mix of Socialist “Watermelons” to centrist “Mangos” and everything in between. From the left of the party, Berry struggled to hold them together and decided to step down as Senate leader. The radical Derek Wall defeated the “moderniser” Caroline Lucas to become the party’s senate. Wall continued to denounce the whipping system and moved the caucus as an unashamedly socialist alternative to the main parties, frequently clashing with the Green’s Parliamentary Leader and moderate Adrian Ramsay.

"UPDATE: A late entrant The Daily Express reports the poll as showing the Tories slumping from “40% to 35% since last month” (that’ll be down one point from 36% last month) “after a fortnight of Conservative feuding over grammar schools and Ken Clarke’s treachery!” - UK Polling Report (2007)

The Conservative campaign stalled in the last few weeks. A secret recording of Ken Clarke criticising Howard and Davis stopped any momentum the party had

Over the course of the campaign the Conservative lead was slowly shrunk due to infighting, most notably a leaked recording by Senator Ken Clarke taken by an Express journalist where Clarke described Davis as “not really having a clue.” Clarke also criticised Howard’s unstable foreign policy.

“It’s dangerous. Seriously dangerous. He’s destroying all our trading and political relationships with the rest of the world, it’ll get worse if we allow it to persist. To be honest if I didn’t have to, I’m not sure if I would vote for David. I don't want Micheal going off bombing whichever country looks at him funny, its all going to his head.” Ken Clarke, the Express (2007)

This “October surprise” gave Labour and the Liberal Democrats a brief bounce a week before polling day, going into the election the Conservatives still had a lead but it wasn’t the unstoppable lead from the start of the campaign. Once again the BBC election team got ready for a dramatic night, party staffers and ordinary voters alike gathered around their television for yet another exit poll.

How far do you agree with the following statement? “All major parties campaigned to the right during the 2007 election” (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

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(Big Ben Chimes)

LABOUR WIN

FORECAST LABOUR LARGEST PARTY WITH 115 SEATS

DD - Well this is a surprise, our exit poll says Labour has pulled out a surprise victory at 115 seats, down 21. The Conservatives nipping at their heels on 113, up 37. Liberal Democrats have seemingly lost the Senate Presidency with 65 seats, down 14 and UKIP and the Greens on 17 and 11 seats a piece, other parties are on 41. Nick Robinson what does this result mean?

NR - If and I mean *IF* this poll is right then Labour have pulled of the largest political comeback since 1992, and David Davis' political career is dead. However this vote is incredibly close, just two seats between the two main parties. The Liberal Democrats have a policy of "equidistance" meaning they'll support whichever party is most likely to form a majority so just a handful of seats could make the difference between David Davis and Jack Straw.

DD - Either way this must be a disappointing night for the Conservatives, they were talking about winning as many as 150 seats just a few weeks ago, they could have had their pick of UKIP or the Lib Dems, even if the Conservatives get 10, 20 seats more than this poll says, considering the state of the Government many will still consider it a failure.

NR - Lets not get overexcited, Labour has still lost nearly 20-30 Senate seats, it's not a good night for Gordon Brown by any means, and look at the Liberal Democrats! From the largest party to distant third overnight many in the party will say this result is a vindication for the Lawsites.

DD - Of course we don't know anything until we get results in. This is, at the end of the day just a poll, I cannot stress this enough. Most likely when we hear results coming in from the North East. However we are hearing rumours that turnout is at a record low in East London, Ashley Blake is there now, Ashley how's it looking?...

 

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“Like a teenager’s first sexual encounter, last month’s election disappointed all parties involved and was pretty much absolutely no fun for anyone” - “Mock the Week” Host Dara Ó Briain

The 2007 Senate Race was, on paper a good night for the Conservatives, a nearly 12 point swing and 40 seat gain was nothing to sniff at. It was the “final heave” the party had been looking for. However the incumbent Government had been rocked by resignations, an international crisis and a near collapse of the national prison system. Whilst many in the party would do the media rounds insisting the result had been a great victory, in smoke filled back rooms the knives were out and the autopsy began.

Many pointed their finger at Davis, entering his 60s Davis was the poster boy for the “pale, male and stale” old-right of the Conservative Party. Obsessed with crime, Europe and defence above everything else. Whilst the country had certainly fallen out of favour with the Labour Party and moved to the Conservatives, perhaps if they had a more modern, moderate and palatable leader they could have won a clearer victory. As the eyes of the party looked towards the all-important Parliamentary elections next year out of Notting Hill came a new generation of leaders.

One of the "Young Turks" bandied around by Conservative elites was London MP Boris Johnson

For Labour whilst the results were better than expected it was nothing to write home about, losing 20 seats rather than 40 was still a loss. The low turnout among younger and minority voters was becoming a problem for Labour, Jack Straw had become the face of the party’s “Blue Labour” faction of social conservatives and whether the strategy paid off was a source of contention in the party, left-wing activists pointed out that the Conservatives gained five senate seats in London, but supporters of Straw argued that UKIP’s poor performance showed Straw’s strategy paid off.

“No, I don’t regret the campaign in 2007. It’s much wider than immigration. It’s not about politics, it’s about feelings. And they’re much more difficult to deal with. Particularly for sections of society who feel they haven’t had a fair deal in life and so look for outlets for this frustration. There’s an enormous distinction in the way people feel about immigration between those who live in London and those who live in the North West. I don’t think you understand the cultural and emotional impact of sudden change. This isn’t people being racist, but they see their country changing. If I hadn't addressed those concerns head on we could have lost twenty seats in the North alone." - Jack Straw interviewed for the article “How immigration came to haunt Labour”, Nicholas Watt, The Guardian (2015)

Many also pointed the finger at Prime Minister Brown. Brown’s entire electoral appeal had been the strong economy of the last ten years, now the economy was stalling the public was becoming fatigued with Brown, most polls describing him at best “boring” or at worst “dour” “grumpy” or “sulky”. Brown had also fallen out of favour with the Liberal Democrats with senior Lib Dems like Danny Alexander arguing the Lib Dems shouldn’t work with a Brown led Labour party.

A spoof poster submitted to the website "Liberal Democrat Voice" by a reader

The Liberal Democrats had a devastating night, going from David Laws in the President’s seat to Norman Lamb leading the “unofficial opposition.” The Liberal Democrats had seen considerable losses in the Midlands, the very seats the “local populist” and “eurosceptic maverick” Lamb was supposed to hold. The left of the party was furious and the right was hardly happy either, poor Lamb was caught in the middle. Academics would later say that the Liberal Democrats were struggling to find their place in the Commonwealth, now that they were a national party of Government they struggled to make the local anti-establishment message that had worked well for local MPs like Lamb in the FPTP pre-Commonwealth era. Regional Senator Lorely Burt described this candidly “You can’t run on picking up the dog poo when you're a cabinet secretary."

Despite the Liberal Democrats infighting all eyes turned to them as the Senate’s kingmakers. The primary question on most journalists' lips was would Lamb keep his promise of “equidistance” or would he listen to the cries of the grassroots and back Straw. Equidistance had been an easy promise to make when the Conservatives were seven points ahead and the Lib Dems wouldn’t have a choice anyway, now the Senate was so close Lamb could take his pick.

Philip Hammond MP and Senator David Davis travelling to a meeting with Lamb's team

Brown knew how unpopular he was amongst the Lib Dem establishment and decided to get ahead of the story, on a temperate May day, a lectern was dragged out in front of Downing Street and Brown made an announcement:

“I have lived in the house behind me for the last eight years. It has been the privilege of my life. But last week's results show that it is time for me to move forward into the next chapter of my life. This building needs fresh blood and fresh ideas, and I need some time to think about my future and the future of our country. As such I will not be leading my party into the next Parliamentary election. I will be coordinating with Labour’s National Executive Committee to begin the process of electing my successor. In this hour I want to thank all my colleagues, ministers, Members of Parliament. And I want to thank all my staff, who have been friends as well as brilliant servants of the country. Above all, I want to thank Sarah for her unwavering support as well as her love, and for her own service to our country. I thank my sons John and Fraser for the love and joy they bring to our lives. Thank you, but not goodbye.” - Gordon Brown announces his intention not to lead Labour into the next election (2007)

Many Blairites saw this resignation with suspicion, was Brown really falling on his sword for the party, or was he freeing his time for a Presidential bid. Leaving early meant Brown’s shadow would still loom over the Labour Party and he could use his bully pulpit to ensure a Brownite successor. Brown's resignation also put the Liberal Democrats in a difficult position, much of their campaign had been attacking Brown as Prime Minister, with Brown out of the way it would become much harder for the party to justify putting a Tory as Senate President.

After several weeks of negotiations the Liberal Democrats had made up their minds. On the Senate floor acting President Lamb got up to make his speech:

Lamb honed his speech-craft skills serving on Several Senate committees

“Over the last few weeks I have met with both Senator Davis and Senator Straw and their teams, I have looked both men in the eyes, shook their hands, I like to think I got a good look at who both men are. I would like to thank all the people who took the time to write to me, Liberal or not. I wish I could be as assured of the right choice of those who wrote to me. I am sad to say I don’t think either men are Liberals. Mr Straw has engaged in dog-whistle Islamophobic attacks on our countries Muslim community. He thinks he is fit to decide what a woman can and cannot wear. He has overseen draconian policing policies in the North West, all at the taxpayers expense. Mr Davis on the other hand subscribes to that most dangerous ideology, radical nationalism. Mr Davis wants to pull up the drawbridge to migrants who make our country great, to turn our back on our allies in Europe, and bring this country closer to another disastrous war in the Middle East. However this house needs a chair, as much as it pains me that chair cannot be me. My party has had to make a choice, and our choice is this…” - Norman Lamb speaking on the Senate floor (2007)

No-one “won” the 2007 Senate Election, discuss (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

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Conservative Party - 116 (+40)
Labour Party - 113 (-23)
Liberal Democrats - 61 (-18)
UK Independence Party - 19 (+1)
Green Party - 10 (-)
Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (-)
Sinn Fein - 7 (-)
Scottish National Party - 6 (-)
Ulster Unionist Party - 6 (-)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 5 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (-)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 1 (-1)
Scottish Socialists - 1 (-)

 

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Taken during the morning of the 4th May 2007

DD - There we go some good news for our hard working BBC studio staff, if you're just joining us the South East, after three recounts has finally declared. Meaning our poor staff can go home soon. With 14 seats for the Conservatives six seats for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats and two seats each for UKIP and the Greens. Juliette Parkin in out in the cold outside Brighton's count, Juliette what can you tell us?

JP - Thank you David, like the rest of the country a strong if slightly disappointing result for the Conservatives down here in their heartland. From speaking to activists here I heard they were aiming for 50% of the vote here in the South East, they've fallen short but still managed to pick up four seats. We've seen turnout way down in urban Labour heartlands like here in Brighton as students at the Universities like Sussex are turning their back on the party.

DD - And what about the Liberal Democrats, they've traditionaly done well in more affluent areas of the South East, whats the breakdown from areas like Surrey and Berkshire?

JP - Yes these wealthy liberal home county voters have seemingly decided David Davis is their man, Liberal Democrat strongholds like Newbury and West Surrey have been either staying at home or swinging behind the Conservatives

DD - I've heard this has been a nail-biting election for third parties, the Greens nearly lost a rather important scalp, what happened?

JP - Yes so Caroline Lucas one of the party's most recognisable faces lost her seat in the first count, she was the lead candidate in the South East back in 2003 but she got bumped down by her caucus leader Derek Wall. Luckily for Lucas she narrowly held her seat in the recount. No to mention the BNP like elsewhere in the country came very close to breaking through here, dangerously close some might say breaking 3% of the vote. Just a few thousand more votes and the BNP's man Tim Rait would be on his way to Westminster.

DD- Sorry to interrupt you Juliette but the Tory Party's national chairwoman Jennie Elias is about to make a statement, we go now to the Conservative campaign HQ in Hull...

 

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“...Neither of you are fit to sit in the seat David Laws occupied. I have heard it said from your own backbench senators. I cannot, we cannot countenance willingly giving either you the highest privilege in this Senate. And to those Senators who whisper to me in the tea rooms about the incompetence of your leaders I tell you there is an alternative. Thusly I will be putting myself forward for the Senate Presidency, with the aid of brave men and women in this Chamber I will break the cycle or fall down trying.” Norman Lamb speaking on the Senate floor (2007)

Lambs’ speech whilst powerful was hardly unexpected. It was an era of unprecedented gridlock in Commonwealth politics. Trust and good faith between the major parties had almost entirely broken down. Predictably both major parties decried the Lib Dems for letting the other side in. The Sun ran with the headline “Lib Dems Bottle It, Again!” A week after Lamb’s speech the Senators voted for their Senate President. The Senators voted:

FIRST ROUND
DAVIS, David - 131
STRAW, Jack - 119
LAMB, Norman - 63
BANNERMAN, David - 19

FINAL ROUND
DAVIS, David - 131
STRAW, Jack - 119

David Davis watches the results announced

Only one man, Senator Brian Sedgemore answered Lamb’s call, breaking the Labour whip to vote for Lamb. Bannerman was eliminated with UKIP abstaining on all further rounds, Lamb too was eliminated and kept to his word on abstaining, effectively handing the Presidency to Davis, who took up the all-important seat in the Cabinet.

“Gordon Brown's first cabinet reshuffle lives up to the pledge he made to radically change the face of Government. But he hasn't forgotten his friends. Ed Balls is the new secretary for Education. His department will coordinate work across government relevant to youth policy and education. Mr Balls will also work with the new Department of Work and Pensions Hazel Blears on child poverty.” - Brown axes ministers in radical reshuffle, David Batty, “The Guardian” (2007)

Following the new political landscape Brown reshuffled his cabinet, for the last time as Prime Minister:

Former Brown Staffers Ed Miliband and Ed Balls were promoted to the cabinet.

COMMONWEALTH CABINET 2007-
President - Micheal Howard
Vice President - Michael Ancram
Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
Senate Leader - David Davis
Foreign Secretary - David Miliband
Chancellor - Jacqui Smith
Home Secretary - Des Browne
Justice Secretary - Hilary Benn
Defence Secretary - Douglas Alexander
Health Secretary - John Hutton
Business Secretary - Peter Hain
President of the Board of Trade - Ruth Kelly
Work and Pensions Secretary - Hazel Blears
Education Secretary - Ed Balls
Environment Secretary - Ed Miliband
Housing Secretary - James Purnell
Transport Secretary - Shaun Woodward
Northern Ireland Secretary - Catherine Ashton
Scotland Secretary - Jim Murphy
Wales Secretary - Paul Murphy
Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Secretary - Andy Burnham
International Development Secretary - Caroline Flint

Jacqui Smith and David Miliband pose outside Downing Street before meeting with Brown

Brown made good on his promise to promote “new blood”, promoting young faces like David Miliband, James Purnell, Caroline Flint and Andy Burnham. Brown also promoted loyal Blairites like Des Browne to positions of interest. However best for Brown would be those both loyal and young, his former Chief of Staff Ed Balls was named Education Secretary and his Chief Economic Adviser Dr Ed Miliband, however not all his appointments were hardcore Brownites, David Miliband and James Purnell were both known Blairites, with Brown calculating they’d be too young to be a major threat to his preferred candidates.

The new cabinet's first crisis came when Glasgow Airport was submitted to a terrorist ramming attack. A Jeep loaded with propane canisters was driven at the glass doors of the Glasgow Airport terminal and set ablaze. It was the first terrorist attack to take place in Scotland since the Lockerbie bombing in 1988. Although the doors were damaged, security bollards stopped the car from entering the terminal. The car's driver was severely burnt in the ensuing fire, and five members of the public were injured, none seriously. Some injuries were sustained by those assisting the police in detaining the occupants. The attack was a miserable failure and the bumbling terrorists were heavily mocked in the press.

“An automatic security announcement came on, warning passengers not to leave their bags unattended. It kept playing over and over in my ear and there I was, looking at thousands of bags strewn across the floor. It was the most surreal experience of my life.” - A Glasgow Firefighter retells the story of the 2007 attack

In terms of domestic policy, Health Secretary John Hutton passed the smoking ban, three years in the making the bill had been supported by all the major parties. Culture Secretary Andy Burnham opened the new Wembley Stadium, its first gig devoted to Princess Diana, the tenth year since her death politicians and people alike paid tribute to the woman whose assassination started the clamour for the Republic. Wembley became a symbol of modern Britain and saw musical and political events alike, with gigs like Live Earth crossing the boundary.

The international concert "Live Earth" garnered an audience of more than 2 billion

Environment Secretary Ed Miliband faced a baptism of fire A series of large floods occurred in parts of the United Kingdom during the summer of 2007. The worst of the flooding occurred across Scotland, East Yorkshire and the Midlands. June was one of the wettest months on record in Britain . Average rainfall across the country was over 5 inches; more than double the June average. Some areas received a month's worth of precipitation in 36 hours. It was Britain's wettest May–July period since records began in 1776. Jacqui Smith announced that the Government would increase the spending on flood defences by £250 million. During Prime Minister's Questions, Brown promised £47 million to flood-hit councils. Brown also pledged to push insurance firms to make payouts.

In June, Hull's Labour Mayor Alan Johnson claimed that the city was being forgotten. Johnson said had the floods occurred in the Home Counties, help would have arrived much more quickly. One in six homes in Hull was damaged and 85 out of the city's 110 schools suffered some damage. Damage to the schools alone was estimated to cost £90 million. The lack of media coverage of flooding in Kingston upon Hull led the city council leader Steve Brady to dub Hull "the forgotten city". The Government came under mounting criticism of its handling of the crisis. Conservatives criticised the fact that responsibilities were spread across four departments and no single minister could be held responsible. UKIP Parliamentary Leader Malcolm Pearson demanded for the Army to be called in to assist.

"This isn't some theoretical experiment from Dr Miliband's seminars. I received a phone call from a bloke in his mid-30s, who for 14 years has served the territorial army at the weekend and who during the week is a postman, he wants to serve. He wants to help. But the Government is too incompetent to let him be a hero. I've heard a lot about the "fresh faces" the Prime Minister has brought to our cabinet, but I think the Defence Secretary needs to go back to base camp" - Nigel Farage MP questioning Defence Secretary Douglas Alexander at a meeting of the Parliamentary Defence Committee (2007)

However this would be the least of the Government's problems, in September of 2007. Northern Rock CEO Adam Applegarth quietly took the train down from Newcastle to London to meet with officials from the bank of England.

Northern Rock CEO Adam Applegarth photographed in Northern Rock HQ

To what extent did Brown’s 2007 reshuffle bring “fresh blood” to the party? (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

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Ques outside a Northern Rock branch in Edinburgh

"The Bank of England looks at the book value of bank assets - the value that they themselves put on their assets. But if you look at the stock market, investors don't believe it because most of our big banks have stock market values less than their book values." - Chief Economic Adviser Nicholas Stern at a meeting of the World Bank (2007)

In September 2007, Northern Rock asked the Bank of England, as lender of last resort in the United Kingdom, for a liquidity support facility. The problems arose from difficulties banks faced over the summer of 2007 in raising funds in the money market. The bank's assets were always sufficient to cover its liabilities in the long run, but it had a liquidity problem. This was because institutional lenders became nervous about lending to mortgage banks. Bank of England figures suggest that Northern Rock borrowed nearly £3 billion from the Bank of England in the first few days of this crisis. With shares in Northern Rock plummeting by more than 25%, the British Government moved to reassure investors with the bank. Chancellor Jacqui Smith announced that the British Government and the Bank of England would guarantee all deposits held at Northern Rock. Northern Rock shares rose by 17% after this was announced. This showed its intended effects the next day. The queues outside Northern Rock's branches disappeared.

The Commonwealth had avoided disaster but confidence in Brown and the Government took a hit, as did its poll ratings. Brown was continually seeming tired and besieged on all sides, his troubles did not end with Northern Rock. Former Chief of the Defence Staff Charles Guthrie heavily criticised the Government in a tell all book. Most notably he criticised the Brown Government for “breaking the military covenant.” The document that sets out the terms of the deal between soldiers and the Government. Soldiers risk their lives for the Government’s security. The Government undertakes to give them the resources they need and to look after them and their families.

"The thousands of soldiers who have been injured in the line of duty are a reminder of what a dangerous and difficult job it can be. “As a result of Defence Ministry guidance, many have had their injury pensions slashed. When ill health forced them to be discharged they were promised that they would be compensated for the rest of their lives. It is unfair to move the goalposts now. Hero troops who put their bodies on the line in the name of national safety deserve to be more than a victim of budget cuts. These brave men and women are now faced with a hefty drop in income once they reach retirement age and a very uncertain future as a result. This is another example of the Government breaking promises to those that choose to serve.” - Lib Dem Senator William Wallace writing to Defence Secretary Douglas Alexander (2007)

An alliance of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, senior clergy and military officers rounded on Gordon Brown. On the eve of Remembrance Sunday, President Micheal Howard and Vince Cable MP gave statements of support for Guthrie. Vice President Ancram accused the Government of "sitting on its hands" when it came to providing proper care and support. An alliance of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and UKIP passed a bill to create a commission to investigate the Government's treatment of soldiers. The commission would be chaired by former Deputy Prime Minister Menzies Campbell.

Whilst this was happening the Conservatives had to choose a replacement for David Davis in Parliament, someone who could lead them into a clear victory at the next election. The disappointing victory of 2007 had left a bitter taste in many MPs' mouths and they weren’t taking any chances this time. Six candidates emerged to seek the parties’ leadership. Oxford Mayor David Cameron, Former Presidential Candidate William Hague, East Anglia MPs Oliver Heald and Andrew Lansley, South East MP Francis Maude and North West MP George Osborne.

Candidates Hague and Cameron shake hands after hustings in Glasgow

"Endorsements in leadership elections matter, especially when your opponent has lost in the past or concerns about electability pop up, endorsements allow a candidate to show unity and momentum behind their campaign. Going into a leadership campaign without a clear list of backers and endorsers is incredibly risky, as Andrew Lansley found out." - Electing and Ejecting Party Leaders in Britain, Thomas Quinn (2012)

Osborne quickly emerged as the clear front-runner. Regarded by fellow MPs as amiable, clever and sociable. Osborne had played a key role in the 2004 Howard campaign and whether true or false, he developed a reputation as a brilliant political tactician.Osborne hailed from the same sect of “Young Turks” that his good friend David Cameron emerged from.

Osborne’s main challenger was William Hague, a former Presidential Candidate brought prestige and name recognition that many other candidates didn’t have, however Hague was an arch-Thatcherite strongly on the right of the party, furthermore many MPs remembered Hague’s disastrous leadership during the 99 election that locked the Tories out of power in every nation and region for a generation, as such most of his support came from the hardcore reactionary Conservatives in the Parliamentary Conservative Party.

Former Presidential Candidate William Hague announced his candidacy on Andrew Marr. He likened himself to Bill Clinton, calling himself "The Comeback Kid"

Franics Maude tried to strike a position between the two, having served as a whip and PCP chair, Maude was well known and liked within the PCP, however few outside the Westminster bubble knew him. Whilst Maude put in the best performance of the second-tier candidates he was overshadowed by the two big beasts of the party.

Seeing that Osborne had considerably more support due to his position as an MP Cameron dropped out and endorsed Osborne. Osborne's former boss in the Conservative Research Department Andrew Lansley would drop out and endorse his protege over the course of the campaign. This left Heald the last second tier candidate representing the Letwinite “old left”, Heald quickly realised his position was untenable only gaining endorsements from a handful of MPs, Heald too dropped out and endorsed Osborne.

"My friends, we have a big enough job ahead. Opposing Gordon Brown and developing an economic policy that broadens the appeal of the Conservative Party. There will be real increases in spending on public services. The hospitals, schools that people depend on will get money under a Conservative government. And that kind of classic Labour attack, fronted by Jacqui Smith, That the Tories are going to slash public services, is false. Anything that we are able to offer of a reduction in a specific tax will at the general election be matched by a tax increase elsewhere," he said. We are going to shift taxes generally from income to pollution. There is going to be a green tax shift which is right for the environment and, by the way, that also makes economic sense." - Osborne’s final speech to the 1922 Committee before the party voted for its leader. (2007)

The raft of endorsements boosted Osborne’s momentum and increased his already considerable lead amongst Tory MPs, with rivals dropping like flies the party quickly unified around Osborne, an endorsement from Howard sealed the deal (it is disputed whether Osborne was genuinely Howard’s first choice or the President just saw the writing on the wall.) As 187 Conservative MPs packed into a committee room the nation's press gathered outside listening to the banging on the table, jeers and speeches. After just 90 minutes the PCP emerged, with a new man at their head, George Osborne, Leader of the Opposition.

Osborne’s task was now to develop a reputation for economic credibility and some gravitas to counter whoever the Labour candidate would be. Osborne started in a strong position, his overwhelming victory in the party gave him considerable authority to rebuild the Parliamentary party in his image, Osborne pledged to transform the country into a “British Powerhouse.” His victory speech emphasised the “left-behind” areas of the North, pledging to move industry and economic power out of London and up the M1.

George Osborne makes his dispatch box debut as Leader of the Opposition

What were the short-term and long-term factors that led to George Osbrone’s election as Parliamentary Conservative Leader in 2007? (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

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2008 heralded dire warnings for the City of London

"The Commercial banking industry was not out of the woods yet. There were fears of a second crisis hitting the industry at its consumers. Many of whom would be laid off in the coming deep recession. There were dark clouds on the horizon, a second wave of bank failures and yet another government bailout of the financial industry." - "Boom and Busts - Mehmet Odekon (2010)

Northern Rock bank, whilst prevented from collapse had remained on a fragile and on life support for the last few months of 2007. Reshuffles at the top of the bank had failed to stabilise it and the bank found itself further and further reliant on Government loans. By January Northern Rock was £25 billion in debt to the Commonwealth. The bank started taking increasingly desperate measures to pay back its debts. Northern Rock sold its portfolio of lifetime home equity release mortgages to JP Morgan for £2.3bn, allowing it to make a small dent in its debts. In February, the Office for National Statistics announced that it was treating Northern Rock as a public corporation for accounting purposes. causing the bank's almost £100 billion debts and guarantees to be added to the National Debt. Although not technically a nationalisation, Peter Hain stated "In all but name, Northern Rock is now nationalised" The addition of this borrowing to the Government's totals increased the National Debt from £536 billion, or 37.6% of GDP to around 44%. This broke the so-called Golden Rule which set the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement threshold at below 40%. Chancellor Jacqui Smith refused to nationalise the bank and sort out increasingly nonsensical bids for ownership. The closest bid to be successful was Virgin Group, however Virgin offered only £16 billion, well below the price the treasury was expecting, Brown described the offer as “insulting to the taxpayer.”

Business Magnate Richard Branson was eager to buy out Northern Rock

By February it was clear there would not be a buyer for Northern Rock, the Commonwealth was essentially fully subsidising a private bank. Speaking in Parliament Chancellor Smith made the announcement. Northern Rock was to be nationalised. Smith claimed that the private bids did not offer "value for money to the taxpayer." Thus Northern Rock would be brought under a "period of public ownership." Brown adviser and former Lloyds CEO Ron Sandler was named executive director. Sandler’s first task was to address the bank's debt, pledging to “significantly reduce” Northern Rock’s debts by 2011. Sandler announced hefty job cuts, cutting over 25% of the bank’s employees, over 1,500 workers. Northern Rock also began to sell off mortgage assets to other lenders.

New Northern Rock executive Ron Sandler

"For nationalisation is, in the New Labour lexicon, the economic policy that dares not speak its name. The very word summons up the dark days of the 1970s. When Labour presided over failing state-owned firms and bitter strikes, and was then voted out of office for 18 years. The party's right wing fought to expunge nationalisation, but not until Tony Blair did they manage to ditch common ownership. The experience scarred Labour politicians of Mr Brown's generation. Economic policy during his time as chancellor was market-oriented. " - "A bank by any other name" - The Economist (2008)

The Northern Rock fiasco greatly hurt the Government, many believing the all-clear sign had been given too early, Treasury Committee Chairman Micheal Fallon slammed the Government for “dither and delay”, opposition MPs stating that the situation would have been a lot better had the Government acted decisively early on, either nationalising the bank or letting it fail. Now investor confidence in Britain had taken a severe hit, the national debt had shot up and thousands of people were losing their jobs.

It was under these circumstances that Chancellor Jacqui Smith unveiled her first budget. Headlines included that taxes on alcohol, cigarettes and high-polluting cars would be increased. Child Benefit would be raised to £25 a week from 2009; winter fuel payments for pensioners would also be increased. Most controversially, all long-term recipients of Incapacity Benefit would have to attend work capacity programmes from 2010 this was particularly offensive to left-wing Labour and Green MPs who protested the attacks on disabled benefit claimants. The growth of the national economy was expected to slow down to approximately 3% in 2008, down from 4% in the previous year. The budget was slammed by the Conservative’s new Parliamentary leader, Osborne accused Smith of “Staking the Commonwealth’s future on spending now, pay later." The economic chaos coupled with Osborne’s honeymoon meant the Tories shot up in the polls, with an average lead of nine points in March 2008.

A Yougov poll taken in late March

As the budget was being presented Labour’s divisions were being brought to light as the party selected it’s lead candidate to replace Brown. Jacqui Smith and Peter Hain had both been considered strong contenders but the fall-out from the Northern Rock scandal and 2008 budget ruled both of them out of contention. The Blairites were keen to retake Downing Street from the Brownites, believing radical change and a fresh face was needed for the party to win the next election. Two names topped the list for most Blairites, Foreign Secretary David Miliband and Hull Mayor Alan Johnson. Miliband seemed like the obvious choice, young and dynamic, yet well known in the PLP and experienced as Foreign Sec, the only problem being his closeness to the Brown Government and the various problems enveloping the cabinet. Johnson could be the candidate for a completely fresh face, a former Cabinet Secretary he was just as experienced as Miliband, plus being out in Hull meant he avoided the divisions engulfing the party. Johnson could be the “knight in shining armour.” However it soon became obvious that Johnson couldn’t command the support in the PLP that Miliband could, so Johnson stood aside.

"I am determined because I am clear about my values. I am clear about my vision for the country and I want to make sure people have a real choice at the next election. And the easy thing for the party would have been to go away and hunker down. The safe choice won’t win the next election. The only way we can win this election is to pass the torch.” - “Miliband: Running is Right Thing to Do”, - Will Woodward, The Guardian (2008)

For the Brownites, Brown was eager to secure a friendly successor. Brown too had heard the buzz about a “fresh face”, the first name to come to mind would be his old friend Edinburugh Mayor Alistar Darling, Darling didn’t have the same recognition as Johnson but was bright and unwaveringly loyal. A more traditional choice would be Des Browne the Home Secretary, seemed like the better option, Browne was a loyal brownite, furthermore he was well known and liked in the PLP and experienced as Home Secretary, the boring choice but it was the safe choice. Cooler heads in Brown’s circle prevailed and Brownites unified around Browne.

Des Browne speaking at a meeting of European Interior Ministers in Warsaw

Apart from a doomed run from John McDonnell only two candidates stepped forward to lead the PLP, Miliband and Browne. McDonnell was quickly eliminated by MPs so Miliband and Browne had to face the party’s grassroots supporters. The campaign quickly became one of generational change, Miliband ran circles around Browne at hustings, the young dynamic star against the slow and boring Browne, Browne was bogged down by his close connections to Brown, whilst Miliband had impressed activists and pundits alike in his short stint as Foreign Secretary.

At a March special conference in Nottingham, party members gathered for one of the biggest leadership trouncing in party history.

“We will guarantee that the police will never again mean getting worse services than others. That is the least that our people can expect. But, we should go further. There are times when we should give special treatment to the police force and their families. Special service deserves special treatment. That is why we are going to improve the compensation scheme for injured personnel. Nothing can ever compensate for the most severe injuries – but our people deserve the best that we can give them. For the most seriously injured, we are going to double the lump-sum payment. Together with the extra pension for their injury, guaranteed for life, that change will deliver up to one and a half million pounds. In the future, together with Ed Balls, I want to offer a second chance to police force leavers.” - Des Browne’s speech at a “Police for Labour” conference fringe event (2008)

Smith’s nationalisation of Northern Rock was “too little, too late”, discuss (30 marks) - A Level History Exam 2019

 

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The result had been better for David Miliband then even he expected, with nearly two thirds of the vote Miliband was the clear favourite of the party grassroots. It was a disastrous humiliation for Brown but he still had to grin and clap as the results were announced and Miliband took to the stage.

“We are a new political generation. Idealistic but not dogmatic. Forged in the hard graft of government, not the futility of defeat in 1992. We are a new generation that will create a new coalition to bring us back to power. Not a coalition of convenience. A coalition of conviction. A coalition of the forward thinking parts of business and the public sector. A coalition of North and South. A coalition of people in every class who want to get on and up the ladder, but who don't want to then kick the ladder away. For everyone who wants to make a better life for themselves I want them to know: the Labour party is on their side. We want to understand your concerns, we want to share your hopes and we are in business to help you improve your lives. We know what we are for, not just what we are against. A moral economy. A good society. An open, creative, campaigning, united Labour Party. You will bring out the best in my leadership if I bring out the best in your leadership. That is what I am determined to do. Together we can be the change that Britain needs.” - David Miliband’s Victory Speech (2008)

Brown congratulates Miliband on his victory

It was an optimistic and hopeful speech. Miliband was a strong orator and certainly looked the part of Prime Minister, his speech stressed unity, bringing together both the party and the country. Miliband also directly addressed the public pledging that Labour would be “on your side.” But mostly the speech hit the same notes his campaign had hit during the leadership, generational change, young blood taking up the torch with fresh ideas, if there was one thing Miliband hoped to achieve with the speech, it was to distance himself from Brown.

Some members of the commentariat got excited and compared Miliband’s speech to Senator Barack Obama’s “A More Perfect Union” speech happening around the same time in Philadelphia. Whilst we can look back now and see Miliband's “change and leadership” speech was not nearly as impactful or timeless as Obama’s speech, but the fact it was compared so favourably certainly helped Miliband get off to a strong start.

Labour was not the only party to have a leadership election at this time. Vince Cable had decided to step down as the Liberal Democrats Parliamentary Leader to spend more time working in his constituency, although cynics read that as preparing for a Presidential bid. There was a dangerous lack of a talent in the Parliamentary Party willing to run for the top job. Senior MPs like Nick Clegg, David Heath and Tim Farron all ruled themselves out of the running. From the left of the party emerged David Howarth, Deputy First Minister of East Anglia. Howarth was a leading constitutional thinker, Howarth based his campaign around the “no coalition” candidate, arguing that both major parties were corrupt and the role of the Lib Dems was to break into the official opposition, however this was somewhat undermined by him being in coalition regionally. Howarth’s campaign struggled however, the right disliked him for his strong anti-Conservative coalition views, whereas the left saw him as a hypocrite for propping up Eric Pickles in East Anglia.

The Pickles/Howarth Government in East Anglia was unpopular, not least due to the construction on new incineration plants in West Norfolk

“There are a large number of my constituents who do not own television sets and are thus persecuted by the licence fee authorities. Under this Government those people would end up paying tax for a service that they do not want to receive. They would thus be worse off than they are now, as long as they are not further interfered with by the authorities.” - Howarth’s speech to the East Anglian Parliament, one of Howarth’s more eccentric campaigns, was against the TV licence fee in East Anglia.(2008)

The party’s right was desperate to stop Howarth, but the defeat of 2007 had taken the wind out of the sails of many leading Liberal Democrats, most expected the 2008 election to be difficult for the party and saw leading the party as a poisoned chalice. David Laws took it upon himself to find a more suitable candidate. After being rebuffed by leading Lawsites like Stephen Williams and Julia Goldsworthy he was left with no other choice. In a meeting of Lib Dem grandees organised by Laws they managed to talk one of the party’s few “big beasts” into making a comeback, former Deputy Prime Minister Ed Davey.

The "Gang of Three" of leading right-leaning Liberal Democrats

Choosing Davey was a stroke of genius, as the man who led the party into Government for the first time in years he was universally respected by all wings of the party. Davey was also only 41 years old, the same age as Miliband and only slightly older than Osborne. Whilst traditionally associated with the right of the party the Social Liberal members had fond memories of the heady days of the Brown/Davey Government so were willing to give Davey the benefit of the doubt.

“Ed Davey, in his speech on Wednesday, is going to say that his party can now deliver both economic competence and fairness. Remind you of anyone? Blair was always going on about marrying economic efficiency and social justice. He knew that voters would never elect a Labour government unless they could trust it to run the economy. A party that could offer both economic efficiency and social justice would hit the electoral spot. So how has Davey found himself in possession of this sweet spot? It's one part application and one part luck. He has shown that he is prepared to sign up for tough decisions on the economy. Davey wants to position the Lib Dems as supporters of public-service reform, on the side of pupils, parents and patients. His luck is that the other two parties have made room for him. Gordon Brown has moved Labour to the left. It is no longer trusted to run the economy.” - Davey's chance to fill a central vacancy, Mary Sieghart, The Independent

Davey entered the race and quickly took a lead over Howarth, better than that his reputation scared off potential left wing bigwig challengers like Chris Huhne or Simon Hughes. Davey’s slogan of “Build a Brighter Future” whilst cliched, captured what activists hoped to achieve. Davey stressed his experience as an economist and promised to modernise the party and the country, pledging to break up “large Government monopolies.” Finally Davey focused heavily on green issues during the campaign pledging the creation of a “Green Investment Bank.”

The campaign was short and brutal. Howarth struggled to make a dent in Davey’s polling, the coalition in Anglia was largely regarded as a failure with the Lib Dems barely breaking 12% in regional election polls, coming behind UKIP. The party elites quickly united behind Davey leaving Howarth in the dust. At the conference in Wakefield the result was of little surprise to anyone.

“When it comes to tackling climate change, as a country we have made it to base camp. Science has given us an understanding of the scale of the problem we face. And is providing us with the tools to tackle it. Now we need to find the will to make the climb. To harness all the ingenuity we can muster. To tap that determination of the human spirit. To build the low-carbon societies that we will need to survive through the next century and beyond. The next few years will be definitive in the fight against climate change. I am determined that together we grasp this opportunity. Governments, scientists, campaigners, businesses, journalists, the whole of society. The 97% working together to meet our collective responsibility to pass on to future generations a planet that can sustain them.” - Ed Davey’s Victory Speech, he leaned heavily on his environmentalism (2008)

"To what extend did the three leadership elections of 2007/08 represent generational change (30 Marks)" - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

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The Senate Race in the North West generally mirrored the result's nationally, if a bit less dramatic, Labour managed to hold up relatively well and both the Conservatives and the BNP didn't see the large gains made in other regions.

Beverly Hughes, a loyal ally of Gordon Brown and Jack Straw was seeking to defend Labour's slim majority, in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Having Jack Straw at the top of the ticket nationally seemed to help Hughes' campaign as Straw was relatively popular in the North West, many who turned out to vote for Straw voted "down ballot" to support Hughes, so Labour's loses weren't as bad as other areas.

Meanwhile the Conservatives selected Graham Brady. Brady was a strange mix, regarded by many as socially liberal Osbornite, but he was also a passionate supporter of Grammar Schools and often criticised national leadership for not supporting them. He was also an avowed eurosceptic, which played well in areas like Straw's home town of Burnley.

The Liberal Democrats chose Lawsite former teacher John Pugh. Pugh based the campaign around "modernising" the North West, using tax breaks to encourage tech companies to move to the North West. The Liberal Democrats hoped to make the North West a "British silicon valley."

The results were good if disappointing for the Conservatives, picking up three seats, mostly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats who were unpopular due to their coalition, and the continuity Liberal Party who collapsed in this election losing both its Senators, forcing a retreat to its traditional stronghold of Liverpool. Labour held steady, considering the blue wave nationally it was realistically the best they could have done. The far-right had a mixed night, UKIP managed to pick up an extra seat however the BNP made no gains despite a large increase in its vote nationally, many attributed this to Griffin spending most of his time and capital on trying to break the 4% hurdle nationally rather than expanding the parties' regional gains.

"A Tory North West? Not if the People's Republic of Liverpool has anything to say about it!" - A comment under the BBC article: "Testing times for parties in North West elections" - Arif Ansari

 

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With this the 2008 election officially began. Miliband’s strong opening speech played will and gave the party a small but noticeable bounce in the polls. However the party remained seven or eight points behind the Conservatives, with some polls showing the Conservatives as many as fourteen points ahead. This was mostly attributed to the dire economic straits the country was entering as well as voter fatigue after over a decade of Labour rule. Polls showed voters were increasingly concerned with the costs of everyday costs, including rising petrol and food prices and utility bills.

“This House notes that the price of crude oil has recently fallen to $90 per barrel. This house recognises that this is a consequence of the fluctuations of the stock market which have caused concern. This house notes that the price of petrol has risen to reach well over 100 pence per litre on the premise that these prices reflect the rise in oil prices. This house calls on the main petrol retailers to match the recent decline in oil prices by reducing the price of petrol.” - Early Day Motion 796, tabled by Labour Senator Ian Cawsey (2008)

Pro bio-fuel protesters outside Parliament

Osborne went to great lengths to try and soften the nasty image of the Tory party. He especially made a strong pivot towards green issues, the Conservative slogan for the election campaign was “Vote Blue, Go Green.” The Conservatives also rebranded their logo changing from an aloft torch to a tree. Osborne committed to increase spending on the NHS. He refused to give prominence to the issue of immigration—an issue of clear Conservative strength. It was an issue on which both Howard and Davis had campaigned before him. His conciliatory tone was one of the clearest differences to his predecessors.

Osborne tried to give off a "relaxed" image and often appeared in interviews without a tie

Miliband tried to recapture some of the progressive magic the party had experienced in the early 2000. Miliband hoped to counter Labour’s perceived shift to the left after Blair's defeat. Miliband emphasised his non-ideological but competent image. The party adopted the slogan “‘This one’s about Trust.” Labour was keen to prove itself as a safe pair of hands that voters could trust. The Labour Party’s 2008 general election campaign strategy had two main prongs. Firstly its decision to campaign on the theme of trust. Secondly its management of coalition party possibilities. Not only did these strategies fail to fire during the campaign, but instead backfired. Labour’s election platform was the issue of trust, and the party was partly successful in making this a major theme of the campaign period. The party was repeating its 2005 election techniques whereby it had undermined people’s trust in David Davis. Hoping to repeat that success, Labour launched the election slogan of: ‘This one’s about Trust’. The campaign used billboards that pushed this theme and had images of polished Miliband on a white background. The second prong was on coalition building, arguing that only Labour could build a strong coalition in the likely results of neither party having a clear plurality. Labour warned of a “BlueKip” coalition of the Conservatives, UKIP, Northern Irish Unionists and even the BNP, warning this coalition would roll back rights for women, LGBT people and ethnic minorities.

The Liberal Democrats focused their campaign on the local, using the example of the South West as an example of the good work Liberal Government could do. Ed Davey, emphasised the "benefits that Liberal Democrats have brought to communities." The third party's strong tradition of doorstep politics had seen them punch above their Westminster weight in the regions. The party went into the election defending 150 seats. But the polls told a worrying story. While other third parties like the BNP and UKIP were seeing their support grow, the Lib Dems were flatlining at around 20 per cent. This was well below the 25 per cent vote share they recorded in the last Parliamentary elections in 2005. One ICM poll, put them at just 18 per cent. Liberal Democrat politicians were predicting that the first of May would be a roughly net neutral election nationally for Lib Dem seats. Yet the party was expecting small swings to the Tories in the South West in areas like. Devon and Somerset. The Liberal Democrats were desperate to avoid the party making losses, especially in the South West. Such a blow in the party's South West heartland would knock the wind out of Ed Davey's sails.

"Could this finally be the time when the Lib Dems take advantage of the weakness of one of the major parties, and get back into the top two? Could Ed Davey's plan to target Labour’s vulnerable red-yellow cities like Rochdale and Oxford allow the party to make inroads into Labour? Labour and the Conservatives are too entrenched, safe seats, media support and their base for the Lib Dems to supplant them. Even when at their most vulnerable. The polls now, with the Lib Dems pretty much flatlining alongside the crash in Labour’s popularity, have echoes of 1995-6. This was when Ashdown’s party did not perform especially in the polls, and went on to score a lower vote share in 1997 than 1992. Even as the Commonwealth party system becomes fragmented, my expectation is that the “big two” will continue to alternate in power. This is in spite of the fact that Labour could well be out of government for a decade or more – but of course politics is never set in stone." - “Is Labour Real in Danger of Extinction? - Politicalbetting.com (2008)

The SNP were slowly making gains north of the border

Third parties hoped to make gains from the declining major parties, not least UKIP, under the leadership of former Tory MP Malcolm Pearson hoped to take advantage of the Conservative’s move to the left and hoover up disaffected Tory voters. Pearson confidently stated the party had a target of over 60 seats, this would mean a doubling of the party’s representation. As both parties were pledging to reduce immigration UKIP became more mainstream.

Pearson's purpose was to build on Osborne's overtures to middle ground opinion. He did this by courting C-list defections among Tory regional MPs and supporters. Pearson wanted to move his party away from its anti-EU and immigration agenda towards wider themes. Thus the campaign focused around personal and local independence from Whitehall and lower taxes. To represent its move towards a mainstream party UKIP pledged to stand a record number of over 600 candidates in every nation and region. When the manifesto was released its headlines included local referendums and cutting council tax . Not everyone in the party was so optimistic, leading MP Nigel Farage was more Conservative in his discussions with the media, estimating 15-20 seats.

UKIP got a boost after South West Regional MP Alan Preest defected to the party

“After 15 years, many lost deposits, criticism and derision, the UK Independence Party (Ukip) is “changing the face of British politics”. That’s according to Malcolm Pearson, who promised party delegates they would sweep the board at this year's elections. Pearson vowed the party would win over 40 seats in parliament for the first time ever. A bold prediction, but the party is riding on a wave of self-confidence after winning more than 50 regional Senate seats in last year's election. Nigel Farage has described this election as UKIP's big moment: "We now have over one million registered supporters and we’re rising fast. By the time of the election we will have the third highest affiliates of any party in this country, and we’re going up at a time when all the rest are going down.” - Extract from Channel 4 Report on UKIP’s Conference (2008)

UKIP also had to watch its right flank in the BNP, polling now consistently showed the party would probably break through in at least one region, with the party polling as much as 7% in Yorkshire and the Humber. The far right British National party tried to "detoxify itself" and shed its antisemitic past, focusing its campaign on anti-Islamic hatred. In one leaflet, handed out in north London qouted ""I'm in the BNP because no one else speaks out against the Islamification of our country." The party's growth sparked a furious reaction among Jewish and Muslim organisations. Even more worryingly an Ipsos MORI poll showed the party winning over 40 seats in Parliament, antifascist groups knew they had to act. The Board of Deputies, the London Jewish Forum and the Community Security Trust launched a campaign to combat the BNP, alongside the established campaigns by groups like Hope not Hate. Analysts believed the BNP could make a breakthrough in the May election unless there was a big turnout. When Yorkshire went to the polls in 2007 the far-right party got 3.7% - a few thousand votes short of the 4% needed to get a Senator in Westminster. At the time it was feared that many of UKIP’s supporters would switch to the BNP. The BNP had already seen success on a regional level with 10 members of the Yorkshire Parliament. All it would take was a small heave to get the far-right in Westminster.

Finally the Greens were struggling going into the 2008 election, the lack of a whipping system at Westminster made the party seem dysfunctional, often splitting on everything from Europe to policing. This culminated in the coup by eco-socialist Derek Wall in the Green’s Senate Caucus. Wall often clashed with the Green’s Parliamentary leader Adrian Ramsay, the most notable controversy in the party was whether it should adopt a whipping system and have a single national spokesperson rather than a committee with speakers. With the major parties all making overtures to environmentalism the party failed to make an impact, with several polls showing the party retreating in support to its core heartlands in Southern England.

“It's fair to say that Derek pitched our party's tent in the left field over recent years. Retreating to the hedgerow to talk about 'limits to growth' is a flawed strategy. Every party has its own ideological divides, and they're rarely very interesting to most voters. We can;t keep arguing among ourselves about socialism versus ecologism. One of the secrets of our success in the recent elections in London and Scotland was our candidates' selection of good ideas. In London, our policies and message couldn't be pigeon-holed as 'socialist', and Sian Berry didn't waste time giving lectures. Nor did we pitch ourselves, at any point, as a left-wing or socialist party.” - London Green MP Tom Chance (2008)

A Green Party poster on the side of a bus in Aberdeen

How far do you agree with the following statement? "The Conservatives were the most united party during the 2008 Parliamentary Election" (2008)

 

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London was an interesting case as it was the only region not to have a Premier from one of the major parties. Ken Livingstone had left Labour after his failed primary challenge in 2004, and had ruled London as an Independent ever since. The left wing maverick managed to piece together a ramshackle "traffic light" coalition of Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens.

Labour was led by Tony McNulty, a former Harrow Council Leader and MP. McNulty had a mixed relationship with Livingstone, broadly from the centre-right of the party he was much more Brownite than Livingstonite. The two clashed often, especially on benefit fraud, McNulty was particularly concerned with benefit fraud and supported a harsh system of crackdowns in the capital, Livingstone however preferred to go after tax dodgers and large businesses. Ironically Livingstone's personal popularity amongst Londoners may have saved McNulty as he did not see the massed loss of Senate seats that other regions saw.

The Conservatives were led by former Lord Commissioner of the Treasury Richard Ottaway, a former Navy officer Ottaway was particularly concerned with defence and foreign affairs, a passion not particularly suited towards regional Government, he spent most of his time on the Senate floor attacking Livingstone's anti-war campaigns rather than any of the Premier's domestic policies. Nevertheless the Conservatives ran a strong campaign nationally, boosting Ottaway and allowing the party to pick up three seats.

The Liberal Democrats were entering their eighth year in the Livingstone coalition, much to the disappointment of Paul Burstow who came from the party's right. A passionate campaigner for the rights of disabled people, especially the blind and, Burstow had campaign to reform London's crossings to be more accessible for disabled people. However the Liberal Democrats suffered, as all junior coalition partners tend to do and lost two seats.

Third parties had a generally disappointing night. Livingstone's third partners the Greens also saw loses for their coalition position losing Senator Jon Nott. The party's leader Jenny Jones enjoyed a good relationship with Livingstone, with the later remarking he'd make her First Minister if he could. The parties of the far right, UKIP, BNP and Christian Peoples Party focused their campaigns around the national senate so remained politically stagnant. Respect made small gains around London's BAME and student communities but not enough to gain a third seat, the party's two Senators Galloway and German, often clashed publicly, preventing the party from taking advantage of Labour's move to the right.

"My role has changed since GLC days too. Then, my job was the day-to-day management of the Labour caucus. Now, I have to make sure my budget goes through the assembly once a year. In the rest of my time I can put together coalitions of interests around a common agenda. City Hall is the centre of a web. So, for example, you get everybody signed up to Crossrail [the proposed east-west rail link through central London]. Where before I was looking inward to the party machine, now I look outward. It’s a position that, thanks to the prestige of the office enables, you to broker deals with government or the private sector. Americans understand this better than we do." - Ken Livingstone interview for Prospect Magazine (2007)

 

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Brown and Miliband's relationship had broken down considerably over the election. By the end Brown had all but disappeared from the campaign

“ComRes’s monthly poll for the Independent has a Conservative lead of 14 points. The full topline figures with changes from last month are CON 37%(+2), LAB 23%(-5), LDEM 23%(+3) OTH 13% (-) ComRes conducted the poll between Apr 25th and 27th. Nothing much new here but a confirmation of the trend. The Conservatives seem to have a stable double point lead. More polls are showing Labour pushed below the 25 point level and, without much real remark, the Lib Dems are increasing their support. This is the first time since last April that a pollster other than ICM have shown them at 20% or above. There is now no point gap between Labour and the Lib Dems. If the Lib Dems moved to second place it would be a huge boost for them and their image as a real contender. Lib Dems winning here and all that. Still – an idle thought, it’s a long way away yet.” - Polling Report (2008)

As the election entered into its final stretch the outlook was bleak for Labour. As well as the poll above, a Yougov poll in mid-April showed the Conservatives 14 points ahead at 35%, followed by Labour at 21%, the Liberal Democrats at 17%, UKIP at 8%, the Greens at 7% and the BNP at 6%. David Miliband’s inner circle knew they had to have a change of strategy. Polling showed whilst many voters described Miliband as “clever” and “prime ministerial” very few described him as “strong” or “tough”, something that Brown polled highly on. The Miliband campaign switched to defence for the last few weeks of the campaign. Miliband pledged that his first act as Prime Minister would be to conduct a “strategic review” into military equipment. Miliband pledged that front-line soldiers would see a pay rise and £1.6 billion for new military equipment and vehicles. Leaning into his role as Foreign Secretary Miliband warned of the “21st century threats to Britain.”

Defence Secretary Alexander and Environment Secretary Miliband visits troops in Afghanistan

Osborne had a substantial polling lead, it certainly seemed like he would easily coast to Number Ten. There were some in the right of the Conservative Party who suggested that now they were winning, Osborne should revoke his pledge to match Labour’s spending, or his earlier vow not to accept UKIP as a coalition partner. Whilst Osborne didn’t drop his pledge to match Labour’s spending he became more conservative on his tax offers, whilst Osborne did pledge a 4p cut in income tax, he resisted the urge to go after inheritance tax, a Tory pet peeve. Instead Osborne focused his campaign against corruption and waste, dubbed "fair rules, fair say, fair chances.”The party designed this campaign around control over spending and stronger corporate responsibility. Osborne’s cautious campaign protected the party from Labour’s aggressive home stretch approach, this would see the party hold steady or even go up slightly for the end of the campaign.

"This is a short-term survival plan for the Foreign Secretary, not a long-term recovery plan for the economy. They've had months to prepare and on the day it's launched they can't even tell us how much it costs, or where the money's coming from.” - Howard’s Security Advisor Pauline Neville-Jones reacting to the launch of Labour’s manifesto in a BBC interview

As the calendar moved closer to election day the Liberal Democrats were in trouble, they were still down from 2005, just less down than Labour. Polling showed them losing as many as 50 or 60 seats. Ed Davey's personal poll ratings had fallen over the course of the campaign, on a field of three young moderates Davey struggled to make an impact. The party bosses were worried if the party fell below 100 seats it would be another extinction level event for the party. Party activists were also concerned with Davey’s relative closeness with the Conservative Party and George Osborne personally. Despite three in five Lib Dem members preferring to work with Labour, Davey repeatedly refused to rule out a coalition with the Conservatives. This caused former Presidential Candidate Charles Kennedy to break his silence for the first time since his devastating loss in 2004 saying that a pact with the Tories would be “the straw that breaks the camel's back.”

Whilst UKIP had strong polling at the start of the campaign the party was struggling both organisationally and financially. The party had been forced to suspend nearly a dozen of its candidates after various offensive remarks, the party also found itself in difficult financial straights having to finance 600 candidates, reports from party insiders said it had just £600,000 pounds in the bank at the end of April, not nearly enough to run an national campaign, especially compared to the Conservative’s nearly three million pound war-chest. It slowly dawned on Pearson and other party grandees that the party had overextended itself. The party had pledged over 90 paid organisers across the country, including in unwinnable areas like Glasgow and Bristol. The party couldn’t afford to keep spending like this and Pearson announced he would be sacking 60 of these organisers, pulling its resources back to target “key areas.”

Farage with Paul Nuttall, leader of UKIP in the North West Senate and a candidate for MP.

"I derived no pleasure from being proved right, Malcom still struggled with coming to terms with the fact we were a third party, now the task became firstly to make sure we actually gained some seats and secondly to avoid the party from going bankrupt. I began to make calls to some old friends and got ready to beg, steal and borrow." - Flying Free, Nigel Farage (2011)

The Greens had a decent start to the campaign despite internal struggles. Whilst all parties moving toward environmentalism squeezed the party’s vote it also helped them to fight the election on their own terms. Ramsay was a competent media performer and well liked amongst his constituents, unlike UKIP the Greens were realistic about their chances and ran a defensive campaign, focusing on holding its vulnerable seats in the North of England. However the party struggled in the media, it had few supports in the national press and the lack of a single unified spokesperson meant that Lucas, Wall and Ramsay could all appear on the press at different times and give completely different answers to issues like Scottish Independence, leaving voters confused and making the party seem incompetent, Ramsay was submitted to an interview from Jeremy Paxman where his he was questioned on statements made by Wall. Most recognised the interview as a car crash and Green poll ratings never recovered.

In a separate interview on Newsnight Lucas seemed to directly contradict what Ramsay said in his interview with Paxman

Whilst the BNP had got off to a strong start in the election they were quickly targeted by a committed group of anti-facist direct action activists. Campaigners tried to shame BNP backers out of supporting the parties. Anti BNP activists managed to acquire a list of paid up BNP members and published a full list of their names, addresses and contact details. The National Union of Students launched a “stop the BNP” campaign, one of the most effective campaigns of the cycle the student activists physically blocked Griffin from entering Reading University for a talk and Griffin was egged nearly everywhere he went. The campaign was incredibly effective and BNP poll ratings began to crater.

Miliband’s campaign seemed to pay off as the campaign came to a close, Labour had crawled up in the polls, Miliband performed well in the leader’s interviews portraying himself as a progressive, future facing politician. The collapse of the Green’s polling also helped Miliband as many Green student voters started to move back towards the party. In fact all the third parties began to decline as voters made the final choice between Miliband and Osborne, UKIP’s divisions had been well publicised and it had fallen down to around 6% in the polls.

“We took a decision a month ago not to run a negative campaign, not to blow the dogwhistle on immigration. This campaign is vindicated by every conversation I have with local people. Gordon Brown will rue the day he gave the green light for Labour's unpleasant campaign. He has abandoned the centre ground of British politics and claimed the mantle as the new nasty party. I know where that leads: the political wilderness. Whether Labour follows him there is another story. Thursday morning is polling day. My team at Westminster has been staying with me in my constituency home in Cheshire. We watched in delight (most of them) and dismay (me) as Chelsea lose on penalties. Now we are up very early to help with what's known in campaigning as the 'dawn raid'. We drive past the Labour campaign HQ, still not open. I position myself outside the main station in Manchester to greet the early commuters and I am there at the end of the day to welcome them back. A few of them assume I never left.” - My Week: George Osborne, The Guardian (2008)

A polling station in Howden

As the voters of Britain went to the polls and made their choice, the party leaders found a quiet place to breathe and then turned on their television to see David Dimbleby once again counting down to 10pm.

How effective was Labour at re-branding itself during the 2008 election (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

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(Big Ben Chimes)

CONSERVATIVES WIN

FORECAST CONSERVATIVES LARGEST PARTY WITH 236 SEATS

DD - And here is what our exit poll is saying. It's going to be a hung Parliament, no surprises there. The Conservatives winning a plurality of seats. The figures are as follows: Conservatives on 236, that's up 49, Labour on 185, down 27, a rough night for Liberal Democrats 117 seats, down 42, UKIP on 33, up two, the British National Party have cracked that 4% ceiling with 29 seats, the poor Greens on just 14, down 10 and all other parties on 36 seats. If this poll is right is a very good night for the Conservatives, all that hype was worth it. Of course all these polls have a small margin of error so those seats could go up or down, I must stress this is just an exit poll, it may not necessarily have gotten it right, there is still everything to play for. Nick?

NR - Drama and excitement there David, whilst this is by no means a good exit poll for Labour they have lost nearly 30 seats, it is better than many expected at the start of this month, remember just a few weeks ago Tories leading by 12, 13 even 14 points. If that was true the Conservatives should be ahead by around 90 seats not 50. Not a good night for the Liberal Democrats Mr Davey was meant to bring the party back from the brink and they've lost 40 seats. Of course they've still jumped that 100 seat hurdle, during this election Secretary Ashdown warned if they dropped below 100 seats it would be an "extinction level event."

DD - Yes of course some polls were showing the Liberal Democrats neck and neck with Labour, that clearly hasn't happened. I guess the voters decided to move back to the devil they knew.

NR - Yes speaking of political devils, at least according to their opponents the BNP have made it through. The first time the far-right has ever gained an MP at a General Election, the National Front couldn't do it, Oswald Mosley couldn't do it but it looks like Mr Griffin will be going to Westminster. Looks like that campaign by groups like Hope Not Hate and Unite Against Fascism hasn't paid of, if this poll is correct we're looking at BNP MPs in nearly every region of the country.

DD -Maybe that's why UKIP have under-performed in this poll? Their woes in this campaign have been well documented, looks like all that investment the party put in seems to have gone to waste, perhaps the BNP could have stolen some of their voters?

NR - Now lets not get too excited, you said it yourself David this is just an exit poll, but right now it seems like George Osborne will be walking into Downing Street in the next few days, and Mr Davey's days as Liberal top dog are numbered.

DD - We'll have to wait and see, in the meantime live from Leeds we have the Conservative Senator for Yorkshire Sayeeda Warsi, Senator Warsi you've heard our exit poll, what do you make of it...

 

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DD - Here's a surprise we're hearing that the first region to declare won't be Northern Ireland, it won't be the North East but Wales, I am told Wales is storming ahead and we expect to hear the results any minute, Nick what should we expect from this exit poll?

NR -Well interestingly it seems according to the exit poll the Conservatives have had a stonker of a night in England but in Wales and Scotland Labour has done better than the national swing. All our reports are saying Labour is going to be winning Wales, it would be a disaster for the party if they didn't. Our statisticians have crunched the numbers and If this exit poll is right we should see around 524,000 votes for Labour, 374,000 votes for the Conservatives and 218,000 voters for the Liberal Democrats.

DD - There you go ladies and gentleman 524,000 votes for Labour that is the magic number for us to see how accurate this exit poll really is. We now go to Cardiff where the result is being announced.

BPJ - I am ready to declare the results for Wales. I Bryn Parry-Jones, acting Chief Counting Officer for the Nation of Wales hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for the Wales constituency is as follows: Labour Party, 510,321. Conservative Party, 366,067. Liberal Democrats, 233,269. Plaid Cymru, 167,523. UK Independence Party, 74,456. British National Party, 63,762... As such the distribution of seats is as follows, Labour Party 12, Conservative Party 8, Liberal Democrats 5, Plaid Cymru 4, UK Independence Party 2 and British National Party 1.

DD - So thats the Liberal Democrats down two seats. Labour down one and the Green's sole MP in Wales Mr Martyn Shrewsbury losing his seat. On the other hand that's Conservatives up three and the BNP gains its first MP ever, with assembly member Kevin Edwards elected to Westminister.

NR - Well well looks like our exit poll has slightly overestimated Labour and the Conservatives and underestimated the Liberal Democrats, with a bit of envelope maths that's about 15,000 more votes for Ed Davey then our exit poll predicted. Maybe all is not lost for the yellow team?

DD - We'll have to find out but in the meantime Jeremy Vine is using the wonders of technology to show us the possible coalitions going into Number 10, Jeremy over to you...

 

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“David Miliband has said Labour "will recover" after its worst election results in 70 years, and told the BBC he took the blame. "I am responsible. There are no excuses on my part at all," he told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show. He admitted to some mistakes but said he had the "conviction and ideas" to take the country forward. For the Tories, Senator Adam Afriyie said Mr Brown was "caught in a mental rut" and should "stop patronising" voters. Labour's saw poor election results - in which their projected share of the national vote dropped to 28%. In his first interview after the results were announced, Mr Miliband said it had "not been the best weekend." Mr Miliband added that voters were worried about rising petrol and food prices and utility bills. "I do understand this and I feel the hurt that they feel," he said. But he told the BBC: "Of course we can recover from this position." - Labour will recover, says Miliband, BBC (2008)

As the results came in the election was a victory for the Conservatives, whilst it wasn’t the landslide victory of 270, 280 seats that had been talked about as the election started, it was a clear victory nonetheless. Osborne's soft image had paid off in England and London, especially the party managed to flip seat after seat. For a time Osborne’s critics had been silenced and he now ruled all he surveyed The Haguites retreated to the bank-benches and waited for their moment. The task now for Osborne was to rebuild the Conservatives as the “natural party of Government” and to sort Britain's spiralling financial problem.

For Labour the election was a vindication for the Brownites, the Blairites had now lost almost every election they were at the top of the ticket for. Miliband whilst polished and well spoken was seen as a nerdy technocrat by most voters. Not to mention the looming financial crisis that had pushed many Labour voters away.As is so common in Labour politics the autopsy turned to which faction was to blame, the Brownites blaming Miliband’s poor leadership, the Blairites blaming Brown’s poor handling of the economy and his refusal to campaign enthusiastically for Miliband. Whilst trying to hold together his divided and dejected party Miliband now had to desperately slam together some sort of coalition to keep the Conservatives out.

Newly elected Labour MP Emma Lewell-Buck called for an "anti-Tory alliance" at her count

For the Liberal Democrats the meaning of the election was contested, Lawsites and Daveyites pointed to the party’s dire polling before Davey entered the scene, arguing the result would have been much worse if a social liberal like Howarth or Hughes was at the helm. Davey’s detractors pointed to the chatter that the Liberal Democrats could have overtaken Labour as Britain’s second party if only they had tried to appeal to those Labour voters rather than desperately trying to court centrist Tories that Osborne had already gobbled up. Autopsy aside for now Davey was still the leader, and he had a choice to make.

“In negotiations with the Conservatives many senior Liberal Democrats brought ideas for policy. Including some who would play a key role in the coalition government, such as Vince Cable, Nick Clegg, and Chris Huhne. Many of which drew on economically liberal beliefs. Grant Shapps rated the Liberal Democrats for their positions on personal liberalism.”- The 2008 coalition and social policy, Hugh Bochel (2016)

UKIP activists were stunned at the result, the party had at best bankrupted itself and at worse nearly collapsed for what? Six seats? All of Pearson’s work professionalising the party, kicking out its more unsavoury elements were supposed to have made the party a true major player. Now it found itself besieged on all sides. To the left a resurgent, confident Conservative party with a young dynamic leader. To the right the BNP was poaching working class anti immigration voters in areas like East London and South Yorkshire.

The result was disappointing for the BNP, whilst the inspiring campaign of young anti-racist activists had failed to keep the BNP out of Parliament, it had crushed their momentum somewhat, from polling 6,7% at the start of the campaign the party had barely scrapped over the line in some regions, and Griffin had become a laughing stock to millions of people, know as that weird guy who got egged a lot. Despite all the boos, eggs and protests the BNP had made it in.

Newly elected BNP MP Richard Branbrook makes his victory speech

For the Greens the election was a disaster, from the warm summer of 2005 to now their caucus had nearly halved, falling below the threshold in Northern Ireland, Wales and the North East to name a few. Even in their traditional strongholds in Southern England the party had retreated. The party now faced a monumental task to unite and professionalise, or risk leaving Parliament all together.

"The Greens in Britain and Ireland were founded on participatory, decentralist principles. The British Greens made efforts to ensure that party organisation reflected these beliefs. But Green parties experience phases of organisational development. These lead to increasing pressure to professionalise and centralise, To meet the demands of politics. The UK and Irish Greens are no exceptions to this trend." - Green Parties in Europe, - Emilie van Haute (2019)

For the first time in the history of the Commonwealth the Conservatives held the Presidency and were the largest party in the House of Commons and the Senate. It now fell to George Osborne and David Miliband to try and cobble together a coalition. Despite rumours by excited commentators of a grand coalition, there were really only two options, a Conservative-Liberal coalition or a “Traffic Light Coalition” of Labour, Liberals, Greens and Nationalists. The eyes of the nation were on Ed Davey.

Yorkshire MP Nick Clegg was close to Davey and supported a coalition with the Conservatives

George Osborne had a strong working relationship with the Liberal Democrats, seeing them as a useful tool if they allied with the Lib Dems, it would put the Tories into a centrist position and potentially make them more electable for the next general election. In a speech after the election Osborne declared that the Conservatives were "the dominant progressive force in British politics." During negotiations with the Liberal Democrats Osborne stressed their Government would be a Liberal one. Osborne appointed his key ally, moderate Grant Shapps as the lead liaison with the Liberals. Shapps pushed a narrative of decentralisation, giving more power to nations and regions, fiscal responsibility and public service reform. It was a tempting offer for team Davey.

However this coalition didn’t lack flaws, for one, Lib Dem members were up in arms, most notably former Presidential candidate Charles Kennedy took to the airwaves to denounce any coalition with the Conservatives. Kennedy warned that the party would lose the moral high ground forever if the party got into bed with the Tories. Furthermore there were divisions around Europe. Whilst both Osborne and Davey were committed europhiles, the right of the Conservatives made up a sizeable chunk of Osborne’s party. A Conservative Government would empower President Howard, considerably to the right of Osborne who had been sidelined for most of his first term by Brown. Howard and Osborne would have to give right wing Tories cabinet seats, and the Lib Dems would have to vote for them.

The alternative was a rainbow coalition of progressive forces, this too was tempting. A progressive alliance had been a recurring dream of Liberal activists for decades, Davey could work with Labour, he had before. Miliband was no left-wing extremist and was undoubtedly pro-European. The Greens as well weren’t a bad idea in principle, the parties had worked together on a citywide and regional basis, most notably in Norwich, the parties agreed on reducing carbon and LGBT rights, it could work in theory.

But this coalition would be ramshackle. The Greens didn’t have a whipping system so even if a formal coalition was agreed there would be no way for Ramsay to enforce it. Furthermore many Lib Dems still felted wounded from Labour’s “betrayal” over Iraq. Even discounting all this, the traffic light coalition would still be seven seats away from an overall majority, they would still need the help of the SNP to get a majority of just seven. The SNP would demand an independence referendum which would be near impossible to pass with a majority of just seven, a coalition of that nature was likely to fail.

Lib Dem negotiating teams arrives at Downing Street for a meeting with Miliband and Brown

“In a statement Davey said that his party had not "reached a comprehensive agreement" with the Conservatives. Davey added that negotiating with Labour was the "responsible thing to do". The possibility of SNP involvement in a Labour government materialised when Nicola Sturgeon suggested they would be willing to join a coalition. Journalists reported that a meeting was held between Sturgeon and Cabinet Office officials. But Labour's Patricia Scotland said she could not foresee a situation in which Labour could enter into government with the SNP. She made it clear that no one from the SNP had approached senior Labour officials.” - Rainbow coalition would have to prop up the coalition of losers, Holly Watt. The Daily Telegraph. (2008)

Davey had made up his mind. He picked up the phone and a day later, two men strolled out into the Downing Street garden.

 

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2008 Seat Breakdown
Conservative Party - 231 (+44)
Labour Party - 180 (-32)
Liberal Democrats - 125 (-34)
UK Independence Party - 37 (+6)
British National Party - 28 (+28)
Scottish National Party - 13 (+2)
Green Party - 13 (-11)
Plaid Cymru - 4 (-)
Sinn Fein - 4 (-)
Democratic Unionist Party - 4 (-2)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 4 (-)
Ulster Unionist Party - 4 (-)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 2 (+1)
Traditional Unionist Voice - 1 (+1)