It's really interesting that you made the graphics but didn't know the result. Did powerab ask you to make multiple so not to spoil it for you?
"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL
- Thread starter powerab
- Start date
I didn't commission @Britannia238 to make the graphics, they made them off their own steam and sent it to me, I've got about 6 graphics that never got used, hopefully, I'll post them at the end of the TL so the work doesn't go to waste.
Yeah I volunteered both elections to make exit poll graphics. For the 2014 one I made ones for all 6 parties in the same format, but this time have just done the two (Tory and Labour) in similar formats.
Closer Look, 2019 Presidental Election in the North West
EM - I'm just going to have to pause you there for a second Mr Dowd as we're hearing results coming in from your constituency of North West England. Senators Peter Dowd for Labour and Kit Malthouse for the Conservatives thank you very much. Before we cut to Manchester, Laura, have our BBC statisticians managed to make a prediction for the North West results?
LK - Yes so this will be our first indication if our exit poll is correct. The North West is a traditional Labour stronghold, big Labour bastions like Manchester and Liverpool up in the North West, so baring a huge upset President Miliband should win the North West fairly comfortably, Premier Andy Burnham is also expecting to be easily re-elected. However, both the Conservatives and Brexit Party are expected to make gains in the suburbs and smaller towns like Bolton and Bury. I'm told if our exit poll is bang on we're expecting a strong lead for Ed Miliband, with a close battle between Senator May and Mr Farage for second place. I'm told we're expecting 1.74 million votes for Miliband, 0.74 million for May and 0.69 million for Farage.
EM - Mark your cards folks, 1.74 million that's the magic number, we now go to Manchester to hear the results.
AR - I am ready to declare the results for the North West England constituency. I Angie Ridgwell acting Chief Counting Officer for the North West Region hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for the Constituency of North West England is as follows: Edward Samuel Miliband, Labour Party, 1,722,302. Theresa Mary May, Conservative Party, 774,168. Nigel Paul Farage, Brexit Alliance, 634,690. Gerard Joseph Batten, UK Independence Party, 395,784. Vincent John Cable, Liberal Democrats, 308,800. Jonathan Charles Bartley, Progressive Alliance, 269,655. Heidi Suzanne Allen, United for Change, 234,859.
EM - So it appears our exit poll was fairly close on Ed Miliband, but we underestimated Senator May's performance and strongly overestimated Mr Farage's support, the Brexit Alliance has received 60,000 fewer votes than we expected them to. Considering how small President Miliband's exit poll lead was, any small gain for Theresa May could tip the balance of this election.
LK - Yes very disappointing for the Brexit Alliance, there was still hope amongst some in the party that the exit poll was off and Farage could make it into the final round but that is looking increasingly unlikely, what we do know is this vote is going to come down to the wire. Also disapointing for Heidi Allen as her and Jonathan Bartley battle it out to avoid being the first eliminated candidate.
EM - A weaker Farage can only be good news for May, it's mostly her votes Farage has been taking so any sign of weakness in Farage's vote is a sign of strength for Senator May. That said it still doesn't fix her transfer problem - if those 1 million Farage/Batten voters don't throw their weight behind May in the final round then Miliband will easily make it back to Buckingham.
LK - It's also an impressive result for Ed Miliband, whilst the North West does undoubtedly lean Labour, almost 40% of the vote in a seven-way race is a very good sign for Miliband, it shows he's holding onto his traditional backers in the urban centres and seems to be holding his own in the outer cities and medium towns.
EM - Yes, President Miliband definitely has reasons to be cheerful, but it's still a long way to go, let's go to the May campaign's headquarters in Reading, Nick Robinson, what do you make of the North West result and what it tells us about the likely course of this evening...
LK - Yes so this will be our first indication if our exit poll is correct. The North West is a traditional Labour stronghold, big Labour bastions like Manchester and Liverpool up in the North West, so baring a huge upset President Miliband should win the North West fairly comfortably, Premier Andy Burnham is also expecting to be easily re-elected. However, both the Conservatives and Brexit Party are expected to make gains in the suburbs and smaller towns like Bolton and Bury. I'm told if our exit poll is bang on we're expecting a strong lead for Ed Miliband, with a close battle between Senator May and Mr Farage for second place. I'm told we're expecting 1.74 million votes for Miliband, 0.74 million for May and 0.69 million for Farage.
EM - Mark your cards folks, 1.74 million that's the magic number, we now go to Manchester to hear the results.
AR - I am ready to declare the results for the North West England constituency. I Angie Ridgwell acting Chief Counting Officer for the North West Region hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for the Constituency of North West England is as follows: Edward Samuel Miliband, Labour Party, 1,722,302. Theresa Mary May, Conservative Party, 774,168. Nigel Paul Farage, Brexit Alliance, 634,690. Gerard Joseph Batten, UK Independence Party, 395,784. Vincent John Cable, Liberal Democrats, 308,800. Jonathan Charles Bartley, Progressive Alliance, 269,655. Heidi Suzanne Allen, United for Change, 234,859.
EM - So it appears our exit poll was fairly close on Ed Miliband, but we underestimated Senator May's performance and strongly overestimated Mr Farage's support, the Brexit Alliance has received 60,000 fewer votes than we expected them to. Considering how small President Miliband's exit poll lead was, any small gain for Theresa May could tip the balance of this election.
LK - Yes very disappointing for the Brexit Alliance, there was still hope amongst some in the party that the exit poll was off and Farage could make it into the final round but that is looking increasingly unlikely, what we do know is this vote is going to come down to the wire. Also disapointing for Heidi Allen as her and Jonathan Bartley battle it out to avoid being the first eliminated candidate.
EM - A weaker Farage can only be good news for May, it's mostly her votes Farage has been taking so any sign of weakness in Farage's vote is a sign of strength for Senator May. That said it still doesn't fix her transfer problem - if those 1 million Farage/Batten voters don't throw their weight behind May in the final round then Miliband will easily make it back to Buckingham.
LK - It's also an impressive result for Ed Miliband, whilst the North West does undoubtedly lean Labour, almost 40% of the vote in a seven-way race is a very good sign for Miliband, it shows he's holding onto his traditional backers in the urban centres and seems to be holding his own in the outer cities and medium towns.
EM - Yes, President Miliband definitely has reasons to be cheerful, but it's still a long way to go, let's go to the May campaign's headquarters in Reading, Nick Robinson, what do you make of the North West result and what it tells us about the likely course of this evening...
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Miliband and May are definitely going to the second round. I agree that the result is still very much up for grabs.
2019, Part 5, Stuck in the Middle with You
“Today we follow in the footsteps of those who have built the great institutions of our country. I will lead a government that seeks to solve the challenges of our time. Over the last five years, I have been tested. It is right that I have been. Tested by the privilege of leading this country. I am ready. Ready to put an end to the tired old idea that as long as we look after the rich and powerful we will all be OK. Ready to put into practice the truth that it is only when working people succeed, that Britain succeeds. By being re-elected your President I make a solemn promise that I will work for that goal. I will fight for that goal. Every single day. In everything I do. In every decision I make. I know Britain can be better. The British people know Britain can be better. Together, let’s make it happen.” - Ed Miliband’s victory speech (2019)
It was incredibly close, but by the skin of his teeth Miliband was returned to Buckingham, narrowly defeating Theresa May in the final round with 52% of the vote to May’s 48%, becoming the only the second British President to win a second term. Until 2020 at least, Labour remained in control of all leavers of the British state, but British politics remained gridlock and divided. In the early days of the election, there was talk that Cable or Farage could break the two-party duopoly and break into the final round, but this was not to be, the main parties kept their place as the arbiters of British politics.
Some had predicted Miliband would face Farage in the final round
Miliband also had to cobble together a Senate Majority, with the existing Labour/Liberal/Green coalition they only had 146 seats in the Senate, needing around 20 more seats for the slimmest of majorities. Nicola Sturgeon confirmed the SNP would continue to support Miliband’s administration but even with the SNP’s 12 Senators, the Government was still several seats short, if Diane Abbott was to take the Senate Presidency the Government would need the votes of the SNP and the defectors in United for Change, no small feat considering their whole reason for leaving was the deficit and influence of the socialist left, with little other choices Joan Ryan and Chuka Umunna were summoned to Buckingham for meetings with Miliband and Abbott.
Meanwhile, for the Conservatives they had failed to take the Presidency, but maybe they could still win the Senate, the right-wing bloc of Conservatives, Eurosceptics and Irish Unionists had around 160 seats, meaning if they could persuade United for Change to back them instead, Sajid Javid could hold the Senate Presidency and create no end of headaches for President Miliband. Of course, it would be a difficult ask, United for Change were all committed Europhiles, and many Conservatives, including Javid, were uneasy at the prospect of working with UKIP, an organization increasingly becoming the Tommy Robinson party where it’s more militant supporters were accosting legislators outside Parliament. UFC was stuck between a rock and a hard place.
"Dozens of Senators have raised safety concerns after the UFC Senator Anna Soubry faced chants from protesters calling her a “Nazi”. 60 parliamentarians signed the letter to the Metropolitan police. The Speaker, Chris Bryant urged officers to do more to protect legislators and Soubry criticised the lack of police response to the abuse. Scotland Yard later confirmed it had opened an investigation into whether any offences had been committed. Chants of “Soubry is a Nazi” could be heard while the Senator was being interviewed by BBC News on Abingdon Green. It is the second time that Soubry has been targeted by a small group of protesters wearing yellow vests, some of whom have links to the far right. On the earlier occasion, she was surrounded by shouting men calling her a traitor. The MPs’ letter to the met reads: “An ugly element of individuals have engaged in intimidatory acts targeting legislators. We understand there are ongoing investigations, but there appears to be an ongoing lack of coordination in the response from the police and appropriate authorities."" - Anna Soubry subjected to 'Nazi’ chants, Caroline Davies, The Guardian (2019)
Swing legislators like Thornberry were harassed by UKIP activists outside the Senate
Straight off the bat, UFC ruled out joining the Traffic Light Coalition and the Cabinet, saying whichever Senate President the party supported would be through confidence and supply. UFC initially demanded Abbott resign as lead candidate, to be replaced by a more palatable candidate like Valerie Vaz or Jo Platt, Ed Miliband immediately refused, fearing a backlash from party activists. Instead, UFC demanded a strict reduction in any future spending plans, the cutting of corporation tax, a deregulation bill to remove “red tape” for British businesses and a guarantee of no EU referendum. Whilst Miliband could accept most of UFC’s demands, a deregulation bill and cutting of corporation tax would be a hard sell, especially amongst the Greens and the Labour left. Miliband hoped Abbott’s strong relationship with the Socialist Caucus and his friendship with the Greens would be enough to get the deal with UFC through the Senate.
Meanwhile, talks between UFC, Javid, Farage and Hamilton struggled. There was a great deal of animosity between the Brexit Alliance and UKIP’s rump. UFC refused to support Javid if it would lead to an EU referendum, and the BA and UKIP refused to give Javid their backing without the guarantee of a referendum. The rows became louder and a UKIP Senator nearly came to blows with a Brexit Party Senator. After this Javid declared the talks over, there would be no more deals, they would either vote for him or explain to their voters why they let Diane Abbott take the Senate Presidency.
Apocalyptic warnings around Abbott had played a key role in the Tories' Senate campaign
"Sajid Javid has ruled out the Tories striking a Senate pact with Gerard Batten's UKIP. Javid said his party does not “need backroom deals". The Tories are under pressure to do a deal with Batten to avoid Diane Abbott becoming Senate President. Neil Hamilton said he would only back Javid if he agreed to block all legislation until an EU referendum was agreed. The Ukip Senate Leader, writing in the Sunday Telegraph, said the offer of a pact was “100% sincere”. Mark Francois, of the hardline British Freedom Caucus, has said his party will have to do a deal with Batten to keep Diane Abbott out. On BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show, Javid was asked whether he would make a pact with UKIP. He told the BBC: “We don’t need a backroom deal. We can stand on our own two feet, put our message across. We are a proud centre right, moderate, one nation party. Gerard Batten and Neil Hamilton can either back me as Senate President, or they can explain to their voters why they let the extreme left take over."" - Sajid Javid Rules Out Senate Deal With UKIP, Arj Singh, The Huffington Post (2019)
Javid's talks with Fox and Hamilton had gone poorly
Miliband and Abbott began talks with their coalition partners to seal the deal with UFC. The Liberal Democrats agreed to the deal easily, having strong relations with UFC and valuing further centrist voices in the Government. The Greens, however, were more tricky. Bartley accepted the need to compromise with UFC, and put up little resistance, however, Cleo Lake, the Green’s new Senate Leader, an anti-racism activist from the left of the party was hesitant to work with former Conservatives. After a few more days of negotiations, this barrier was overcome as UFC agreed that the Environment Department would be exempt from future spending freezes.
Now Miliband and Thornberry had to reshuffle their Cabinet, several high profile figures took their leave from frontline politics, most notably Defence Secretary Vince Cable, who said his Presidential bid would be his last venture in politics and was going into retirement. Other leavers included Health Secretary Jon Ashworth who announced he would not be returning to the Cabinet after failing to be elected East Midlands Premier and Caroline Lucas who would be stepping down from the Cabinet to allow “new Green talent” onto the top table. With several large boots to fill, Miliband and company got to work.
“Caroline Lucas is to step down as the Work and Pensions Secretary. One of the party's most experienced members, she has served in the Cabinet since 2011. In an article for the Guardian, Lucas said Greens "must always be an insurgent force for good, asking the big questions that matter". She new Green cabinet members "will step up to the challenge that our febrile times present". Ms Lucas, 58, said she would be "focusing even more" on her work in Parliament and in her constituency, rather than running a ministry. "It's now time for me to show the power of letting go," she wrote. She added that the Green Party must consistently ask "the big questions that matter... and give the people of this country the bold alternative." Under the 2017 coalition agreement, the Greens are entitled to three Secretaries of State. With Jonathan Bartley and Amelia Womack both expected to remain in the Cabinet that leaves one Green seat open for "new blood". Names floated include London Senator Sain Berry, South West Senator Cleo Lake and West Midlands Leader Rosi Sexton.” - Caroline Lucas to step down as Work and Pensions Secretary, BBC News (2019)
Lucas' departure was the end of an era for the Greens
“Why did Ed Miliband win the 2019 Presidential Election? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam
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Detailed Results
SENATE
- Labour - 94 (-1)
- Conservatives - 74 (-35)
- Brexit Alliance - 41 (+41)
- Liberal Democrats - 33 (-)
- UK Independence Party - 28 (-27)
- United for Change - 22 (+22)
- Green Parties - 19 (-4)
- Scottish National Party - 12 (-4)
- Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (+3)
- Sinn Fein - 7 (+1)
- Plaid Cymru - 5 (+2)
- Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 5 (+2)
- Ulster Unionist Party - 5 (-)
- Social Democratic and Labour Party - 4 (-1)
- North East Party - 2 (+2)
- Labour Party - 6 (+1)
- Conservative Party - 4 (-1)
- Scottish National Party - 1 (-)
- Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 1 (+1)
- Labour Party - 55 (+8)
- Conservative Party - 12 (-12)
- Liberal Democrats - 3 (+2)
- Scottish National Party - 3 (+1)
- Independents - 2 (Kate Allsop & Andy Preston) (-)
- Green Parties - 1 (+1)
- Sinn Fein - 1 (-)
- Residents Accosiations - 1 (-)
2019, Part 6, Olive Branch
Miliband's primary aim of the reshuffle was to insure coalition unity
“President Miliband has made changes to his cabinet, notably bringing former Chancellor Angela Smith back. Smith, who served as Chancellor under Gordon Brown, was one of six new appointees. Richard Newby is the new President of the Board of Trade, replacing Angela Rayner who was promoted to the DWP. Liberal Democrat Judith Jolly also joined the cabinet, taking on the role of Housing Secretary. Sue Hayman will also join as Northern Irish Secretary. “I look forward to working with the strengthened shadow cabinet as we prepare a government to make Britain better,” Miliband said. Miliband also named Senator Sain Berry as the new Secretary of State for International Development. Miliband has appointed few new faces to the Cabinet. He promised that his shadow cabinet would be “balanced across the country” and “balanced in terms of diversity”. Consistent with his message of unity, Ed Miliband has offered positions to Lib Dem rivals, with Ed Davey taking the Foreign Office portfolio.” - Ed Miliband and Emily Thornberry reshuffle Cabinet, Christain Krung, POLITICO EU (2019)
Commonwealth Cabinet 2019-
- President - Ed Miliband (Labour)
- Vice President - Harriet Harman (Labour)
- Prime Minister - Emily Thornberry (Labour)
- Deputy Prime Minister - Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrats)
- Senate Leader - Diane Abbott (Labour)
- Foreign Secretary - Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats)
- Chancellor of the Exchequer - Tom Brake (Liberal Democrats)
- Home Secretary - Angela Smith (Labour)
- Justice Secretary - Nia Griffith (Labour)
- Defence Secretary - Keir Starmer (Labour)
- Health Secretary - Barry Gardiner (Labour)
- Business Secretary - Amelia Womack (Green)
- President of the Board of Trade - Richard Newby (Liberal Democrats)
- Work and Pensions Secretary - Angela Rayner (Labour)
- Education Secretary - Margaret Greenwood (Labour)
- Environment Secretary - Jonathan Bartley (Green)
- Housing Secretary - Judith Jolly (Liberal Democrats)
- Transport Secretary - Andy McDonald (Labour)
- Northern Ireland Secretary - Sue Hayman (Labour)
- Scotland Secretary - Lesley Liard (Labour)
- Welsh Secretary - Christina Rees (Labour)
- Digital Culture Media and Sport Secretary - Andrew Gwynne (Labour)
- International Development Secretary - Sain Berry (Green)
Sain Berry replaced Caroline Lucas in the three-strong Green Cabinet group
Eager to keep the Liberal Democrats and UFC onside, the Cabinet reshuffle was generous to the Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey, the party’s great survivor, was promoted to Foreign Secretary whilst Tom Brake was moved sideways into Number 11. Former Chancellor Angela Smith was brought out of retirement to serve as Home Secretary and Keir Starmer was moved sideways to Defence. New additions to the Cabinet included former Chief of Staff to Charles Kennedy Richard Newby, South West Senator Judith Jolly and Green London Senator Sain Berry. Soft-left Miliband allies like Keir Starmer and Nia Griffith remained in senior positions in the Cabinet. There had been talk of Miliband asking the increasingly unpopular Emily Thornberry to step down as Prime Minister but these rumours remained unsubstantiated as she presented the Cabinet to Parliament.
“Emily Thornberry has denied calling voters “stupid” as infighting broke out amid a plot to oust her as Prime Minister. The Prime Minister, who was rumoured to be in for the chop in yesterday's reshuffle accused a colleague of sharing a “total and utter lie” on Sunday. Former minister Caroline Flint, claimed Ms Thornberry had told a colleague: “I’m glad my constituents aren’t as stupid as yours.” Thornberry rejected the allegation as long-standing tensions over her leadership began to surface. “The quote Caroline attributed to me today is a total and utter lie,” the London MP tweeted. I’ve never said that to anyone, nor anything like it, nor would I ever think it. Whatever our differences, let’s not sink into that gutter.” Flint had been critical of the “hard left” within the party, citing among them Ms Thornberry and Senate Leader Diane Abbot, for "alienating working-class voters' '. She told Sky’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday: “I don’t believe Emily is credible to remain leader – I don’t think she can hold onto working-class support.” - Thornberry criticises ‘total and utter lie’ shared by Labour colleague, Press Association (2019)
The Cabinet easily passed through the Commons with the support of SNP and UFC MPs with only a handful of rebellions, the Senate would be the tricky part. Whilst most UFC politicians like Chuka Umunna, John Bercow and Sarah Wollaston supported continuing the Traffic Light Coalition, there were vocal figures within UFC such as Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes who objected to making Diane Abbott Senate President due to her dovish foreign policy. This wasn’t to mention the fundamentalists in the SNP, who had just lost four Senate seats were becoming increasingly tired at propping up a decade-old Westminster Government.
“The Ayes to the right, 180. The noes to the left, 169. The ayes have it, the ayes have it. Unlock!”
With the addition of UFC's confidence and supply, the coalition's Senate majority had grown from one to six
With the help of the SNP, UFC and the coalition’s allied parties in Northern Ireland, the Cabinet comfortably passed the Senate with a majority of 6. Only a handful of Senators rebelled, with 3 hawkish Labour Senators voting against in protest of Abbott alongside serial Lib Dem rebel Jeremy Browne, the UFC’s Anna Soubry, and moderate Green Senator Nick Humberstone. The new coalition was firmly in place, Javid’s gambit of daring the UFC to vote with the coalition had failed. The great centre to right alliance had never emerged, fears around Batten and Farage had sunk that chance, and Javid found himself as the Senate’s Leader of the Opposition.
“Sajid Javid has extended out an olive branch to Nigel Farage and the Brexit Alliance, praising them in a speech in London, saying: “They are not extremists.” Javid said “credit” was due to Farage for walking away from his former party, Ukip, as it lurched to the far right. The move will be seen by some as an effort by the Tory party to repair bad blood with the Brexit Alliance after Miliband's Cabinet passed the Senate. Javid’s comments come amid increased speculation about the role Farage and the Brexit party might play in a "non-aggression pact" for the 2020 elections. The possibility of a future Tory-Brexit party coalition has been speculated upon in the event the TLC collapses, along with various roles for Farage. “And we must give credit where credit is due. So I applaud Nigel Farage for walking away, calling Ukip ‘thugs and extremists’,” Javid said. “Even though his Brexit Alliance has not made my life any easier, I want to be clear – they are not extremists. “Because it doesn’t help to exaggerate the problem, to demonise anyone with a different view and to see danger when it is not there.”” - Sajid Javid praises Nigel Farage in a speech on extremism, Jamie Grierson, The Guardian (2019)
Farage allies had proposed a "non-aggresion" pact with the Conservaties at the 2020 electino
With the Presidency out the way eyes already began to turn to the future and the 2020 Parliamentary election. Incumbent Leader Amber Rudd had promised not to lead the party into the next election, leaving a vacancy at the top. Former Presidential Candidate Jeremy Hunt raised eyebrows when he declared his candidacy for Conservative Parliamentary lead candidate only a few days after the new Government was confirmed. The former International Development Secretary told the Haslemere Festival that he intended to run to be prime minister. Hunt became the first senior Tory out of the blocks since the Presidential Election. He warned the Conservatives would be "annihilated" if they didn't modernise. Self-identifying as One-Nation Conservative, Hunt was seen as an economic and social liberal. However, Hunt quickly came into hot water as Buzzfeed revealed Hunt's Presidental Campaign earlier in the year was funded by an associate to Mohammad Bin Salman. Ken Costa, special representative of the Crown Prince's "Saudi Vision 2030" plan donated £9,000 to Hunt's leadership campaign. Costa was described as the prince's "point man" to the Commonwealth. Labour politicians said the revelation raised serious questions about the former Secretary's independence. "Questions need to be raised if the former secretary is taking money from Saudi interests," Labour Senator Lloyd Russell-Moyle, said.
Whilst Hunt’s early bid made him a target, other potential candidates were waiting patiently. Rishi Sunak, Rudd’s ambitious deputy, was considered a frontrunner, as was May’s running mate David Lidington, South East Premier Philip Hammond and Portsmouth Mayor Penny Mourdant. With Emily Thornberry proving to be an unpopular Prime Minister in an increasingly untenable position, and May only losing Buckingham by 2 points, many Tories thought that with one more heave they’d be in Downing Street, and everyone wanted to be the person to lead the party back to power.
Despite the excitement amongst the Conservatives, they were snapped back to reality after backbench Senator Christopher Chope announced he would be defecting to the Brexit Alliance, saying he no longer believed the Conservative's approach would deliver an EU referendum. His resignation came amid a backlash against Theresa May's perceived timidness around Brexit during the campaign. Several Eurosceptics MPs said the Conservatives must commit to leaving the EU, with one saying it was "the end of the line." In a letter to Chope, Sajid Javid wrote he was "sorry to lose someone of your passion, drive and sincerity". Javid also said he disagreed with "the assessment you now give about our approach" to Europe. In a letter to the Conservative's Senate Leader Chope said he did not believe "Britain would be a sovereign country whilst in the EU. He also described the conservatives refusal to work with the Brexit Alliance as "dangerously divisive". Tim Loughton - a Conservative Senator - said he had "great integrity", and left because she couldn't support the prime minister's bill. Senator Dominic Grieve said he was sorry that Chope had resigned, but added that some of his colleagues were "living in a world of fantasy".
“Dominic Grieve has warned his party it would be "irrational" to try and outflank Nigel Farage on the right. The senior Tory said the party needed to ditch their "odd obsessions". Grieve says the party should instead focus on ramming home the message that the coalition had ruined the economy. Grieve made the comments while speaking to the UCL Conservative Society on Thursday evening. He also said it had been a "miracle" that the Government had not led to higher unemployment, that Nicola Sturgeon was a "fantasist". Looking forward to the next election, he said: "I don’t underestimate the BA's power, and Nigel Farage is an entertaining figure. "There is no doubt there has been from the party, also from other parties, but from the Conservative Party, a haemorrhage to the BA. How profound that is, is very difficult to know. It exploded at the European election I have no doubt about that, but where it will be in 2020 I can't predict. One thing I am quite sure about is we are not going to get elected in 2020 by trying to outflank the BA by being more Farage than Farage.” - Dominic Grieve: Tories Must Ditch 'Odd Obsessions' To Win Election, Ned Simons, Huffington Post (2019)
The future of the Conservative Party depended on Farage failing
“To what extent did Miliband’s 2019 victory bring stability to the Commonwealth? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam
I see the Conservatives are still observing their traditions of splitting over Europe. If this keeps up, Labour is going to remain in power just because the right has split so much.
The coalition won't be able to continue for much longer I imagine.
Who are the SNP mayors? What new city did they win? Dundee, Aberdeen, Glasgow?
Who are the SNP mayors? What new city did they win? Dundee, Aberdeen, Glasgow?
- Aberdeen - Maureen Watt (50.7% of the vote in the first round, defeating nearest challenger Andrew Bowie with 19.1% of the vote) SNP HOLD
- Glasgow - Anne McLaughlin (50.1% of the vote in the sixth round, defeating nearest challenger Paul Sweeney with 32.5% of the vote) SNP HOLD
- Edinburgh - Deidre Brock (51.4% of the vote in the third round, defeating nearest challenger Daniel Johnson with 26.6% of the vote) SNP GAIN FROM LAB
Closer Look, 2019 Anglian Premier Election
Outgoing Anglian Premier Eric Pickles was the second least popular Premier in the Commonwealth, having originally stood on a platform of cutting wasteful Government spending, he had been caught in an expenses scandal, roundly branded as a hypocritical, Pickles' administration became known for corruption and sleaze. To try and hold onto the Premiership the Conservatives nominated Senator Stephen Barclay. Barclay was not a typical Tory, a former soldier and son of a trade union organiser. A Eurosceptic, Barclay ran a fairly boring campaign, only holding Anglia due to its vast reserves of Conservative voters.
The Labour Party too had a contentious nomination, their Leader in the Anglian Parliament, Kelvin Hopkins, was tarnished in a sex scandal and rising star MP Gavin Shuker defected to become Heidi Allen's running mate. Eventually, the party nominated Clive Lewis, a left-wing journalist with no elected experience, Lewis had made a longshot bid for the Labour leadership and founded the "For the People!" organisation, a British answer to groups like Justice Democrats and Our Revolution, Lewis' nomination was seen as proof to the rising power of the Labour left. A former soldier, Lewis was not a typical Labour politician, he ran an energetic campaign, mobilising Labour's strongholds in Cambridge and Norwich to a record result.
For the Brexit Alliance, former UKIP MP Tim Aker made a play for the Premiership. Aged just 33, Aker was a Farage loyalist and rising star of the British Libertarian right having worked for the Taxpayer's Alliance. Aker took advantage of the controversy surrounding Pickles' Premiership promising to "drain the Norwich swamp" of overpaid bureaucrats and political correctness. Aker was an effective politician, netting his campaign 14% of the vote.
As for the minor parties, popular Liberal Democrat grandee Norman Lamb made a big for the top job as a last hurrah before hending into retirement, UKIP nominated Senator and NFU organiser Stuart Agnew, whose support collapsed to Aker. United for Change put forward former Tory MP Neil Charmichael, who got a respectable 8% of the vote, and the Greens nominated UEA Anglia Professor Catherine Rowett, who got 6% of the vote, mostly from Green citadels like Norwich.
"Anglian MP, Tim Aker has joined Nigel Farage in a new Brexit Alliance. Seven Members of the Anglian Parliament have joined the new eurosceptic political party, reducing the UKIP group to just one and making the Brexit Alliance the fourth-largest group in the Anglian Parliament. The new party was registered with the Electoral Commission in February. In an interview with LBC about Aker, Mr Farage said: “Tim’s got my full support, there’s a huge appetite in Anglia. If Labour and the Conservatives think they can kick this can down the road and not deliver a referendum, they have got another thing coming.” Aker has hit out at the Conservative and Labour parties, claiming democracy is under threat as a result of their failure to support a referendum. Speaking to the Express Mr Aker said: “I’m joining the Brexit Alliance because enough is enough. They’ve had their chance, the Westminster parties, and they’ve got to be kicked out of Westminster. Until they’re all driven out we won’t get a chance to vote on the EU. " - Brexit Party MP hits out at Labour and Conservatives, James Bickerton, The Express (2019)
The Labour Party too had a contentious nomination, their Leader in the Anglian Parliament, Kelvin Hopkins, was tarnished in a sex scandal and rising star MP Gavin Shuker defected to become Heidi Allen's running mate. Eventually, the party nominated Clive Lewis, a left-wing journalist with no elected experience, Lewis had made a longshot bid for the Labour leadership and founded the "For the People!" organisation, a British answer to groups like Justice Democrats and Our Revolution, Lewis' nomination was seen as proof to the rising power of the Labour left. A former soldier, Lewis was not a typical Labour politician, he ran an energetic campaign, mobilising Labour's strongholds in Cambridge and Norwich to a record result.
For the Brexit Alliance, former UKIP MP Tim Aker made a play for the Premiership. Aged just 33, Aker was a Farage loyalist and rising star of the British Libertarian right having worked for the Taxpayer's Alliance. Aker took advantage of the controversy surrounding Pickles' Premiership promising to "drain the Norwich swamp" of overpaid bureaucrats and political correctness. Aker was an effective politician, netting his campaign 14% of the vote.
As for the minor parties, popular Liberal Democrat grandee Norman Lamb made a big for the top job as a last hurrah before hending into retirement, UKIP nominated Senator and NFU organiser Stuart Agnew, whose support collapsed to Aker. United for Change put forward former Tory MP Neil Charmichael, who got a respectable 8% of the vote, and the Greens nominated UEA Anglia Professor Catherine Rowett, who got 6% of the vote, mostly from Green citadels like Norwich.
"Anglian MP, Tim Aker has joined Nigel Farage in a new Brexit Alliance. Seven Members of the Anglian Parliament have joined the new eurosceptic political party, reducing the UKIP group to just one and making the Brexit Alliance the fourth-largest group in the Anglian Parliament. The new party was registered with the Electoral Commission in February. In an interview with LBC about Aker, Mr Farage said: “Tim’s got my full support, there’s a huge appetite in Anglia. If Labour and the Conservatives think they can kick this can down the road and not deliver a referendum, they have got another thing coming.” Aker has hit out at the Conservative and Labour parties, claiming democracy is under threat as a result of their failure to support a referendum. Speaking to the Express Mr Aker said: “I’m joining the Brexit Alliance because enough is enough. They’ve had their chance, the Westminster parties, and they’ve got to be kicked out of Westminster. Until they’re all driven out we won’t get a chance to vote on the EU. " - Brexit Party MP hits out at Labour and Conservatives, James Bickerton, The Express (2019)
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2019, Part 7, You’re so 2008
UfC MP Nick Boles was one of biggest affiliation cheerleaders
“The hopes of centrist voters received a boost after United for Change said it could form a pact with the Liberal Democrats. Chuka Umunna said the parties should agree to a joint electoral list at the next parliamentary election. He said politicians who want to prevent a referendum need to work together following the Presidential election. It comes after his party's former nominee, Heidi Allen, admitted she threatened to quit in an internal row over tactical voting. Umunna told the Today Programme: "The centrist forces in this country need to work even more together than we have." Asked if UfC could form a pact with the Liberal Democrats where their parties would run a joint list, Umunna said: "it would be sensible." He added: "We shouldn't be competing at a general election. We have got to get our ducks in a row and work out what configuration is appropriate for 2020 and beyond instead of using the same model from the 1980s." - UfC raise hopes of a centrist electoral pact with Lib Dems, Patrick Sawer, The Telegraph (2019)
The Presidental Election raised several questions for United for Change, whilst they had passed the 4% threshold, they had failed to supplant the Liberal Democrats as Britain’s main centrist party and with funds running low the party needed to have a frank conversation around it’s future. Two broad factions emerged, the first wanting to merge with, or at least form a joint list with the Liberal Democrats, and those who wanted to keep the party as an independent movement. On the pro-merger side was South East MP John Bercow, Parliamentary Leader Chuka Umunna, and South West Senator Sarah Wollaston. On the anti-merger bloc were East Midlands Senators Anna Soubry and Chris Leslie, as well as London Senator Mike Gapes.
Umunna and Wollaston led the pro-affiliation faction
Umunna opened a channel with the Liberal Democrats, having a personal friendship with their Parliamentary Leader, Jo Swinson from their time in the Ed Balls Government. Swinson offered generous terms, whilst United for Change could remain a nominally independent party, it could affiliate to the Liberal Democrats, similar to the relationship between Labour and the Cooperative Party. UfC joiners would get generous positions on electoral lists and receive the financial security and political infrastructure of the Liberal Democrats. Umunna brought these proposals back to UfC’s executive committee and all hell broke loose. UfC was not in a good spot financially, many of its major donors who had joined excited by the prospect of a new centre party had either gone to the Liberal Democrats or returned to one of the two major parties, the party had grown fast, having offices and staff in every region of the country but without the stable funding from trade unions or business to sustain it.
Umunna argued that the party could not survive on its own, that it wouldn’t be able to pay hundreds of thousands in deposits and other election costs come 2020 and if it stayed independent, the party would die. The Soubryites, on the other hand, argued that the Liberal Democrats were just as bad as Labour and the Greens, having worked with them in coalition for almost a decade and the party could thrive independently. Over 3,000 party elites met at a special conference in Edinburgh to decide on their organisation’s future, passions were high, pro-affiliation figures like Philip Lee debated Soubryites like South East legislator Warren Morgan, eventually, after all the votes were tallied 1,645 delegates to 1,364 in favour of affiliation, United for Change would be joining the Liberal Democrats. Channelling her inner David Owen, Soubry and her supporters walked out the conference declaring herself the Leader of Continuity UfC, alongside 7 MPs, 10 Senators and dozens of legislators. After just weeks in existence, UfC had split.
“Anna Soubry has expressed frustration and sadness at the split in UfC saying Chuka Umunna had “made a very serious mistake”. Soubry, who is now the leader of the remaining 17 legislators, said UfC had been plagued by internal disagreements. “These things are always difficult, but some people weren’t even in the same book, never mind on the same page,” she said. “It’s not to say they didn’t have huge strengths. But you sometimes have to shut up and get on with it. And the idea that you can agree on a strategy and then question it, debate it – sometimes you have to say, can we stop talking and do some campaigning?” Heidi Allen, UfC’s Presidential candidate, also supported affiliating to the Lib Dems. Others prominent affiliation supporters were, Sarah Wollaston, Gavin Shuker and Angela Smith. Those remaining with Soubry are Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Joan Ryan and Ann Coffey, all of whom represented Labour. Soubry said she was particularly stricken by Umunna’s decision. “I will always be sadder than you can imagine that Chuka is not with us." - Anna Soubry: Umunna made ‘serious mistake’ supporting affiliation, Peter Walker, The Guardian (2019)
Umunna hoped a Lib Dem affiliated UfC could be a true third force in British politics
As the UfC drama dominated politics, attention quickly turned to foreign affairs as Iran seized a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The Stena Impero had 23 personnel on board and was heading north towards Iran before it was surrounded by four vessels and a helicopter. The government's emergency committee, Cobra, met in Buckingham to discuss the incident. Foreign Secretary Ed Davey said the Government was “concerned about Iran's unacceptable actions", saying they "represent a clear challenge to international freedom of navigation.”. “We have advised British shipping to stay out of the area for an interim period," he added. Defence Secretary Keir Starmer said the seizures were "completely unacceptable. We are clear that if this situation is not resolved there will be serious consequences," he said. We are not looking at military options. We are looking at a diplomatic way to resolve this situation but we are very clear that it must be resolved. Our ambassador in Tehran is in contact with the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to resolve the situation," he said.
A month into his second term Miliband now faced a standoff with Iran. With Donald Trump in the Whitehouse and the Iran Nuclear Deal on tenterhooks, the international community had to tread carefully and Miliband was hesitant to further inflame tensions. US Secretary of State John Sullivan offered warm words but with relations between Buckingham and the Whitehouse at an all-time low America could not be relied on. The Conservatives meanwhile were seizing on the Stena Impero incident, Amber Rudd slammed the Government’s Defence policy and lack of military spending in PMQs saying “the Navy simply no longer has sufficient numbers of work-horses - frigates and destroyers - to be able to surge vessels into the Gulf when a crisis beckons.” Miliband had hoped to project unity and stability, instead, his first major crisis demonstrated weakness.
Miliband's honeymoon came to a swift end
“Discussions about alliances in foreign policy tend to read like a cartographical roll call of who’s hot and who’s not. China. India. Brazil. The Philippines. Pakistan. Turkey. South Africa. Syria. The combination will depend on the problem at hand, although there are two countries that top all the charts: China, the US. Such discussions are important and should dictate foreign policy spending, resourcing and communication. Power is not just shifting from west to east; it is also seeping away from governments towards the private sector, NGOs and the public. This is having an impact on how foreign policy is delivered and, when done well, can increase impact. For example, Cathy Ashton has received praise for mediating a landmark nuclear agreement with Iran. However, for years the EU has failed to enforce its own sanctions against Iran and companies that trade with it. 18 months before the agreement was signed, UANI had pulled off an amazing coup in its campaign to make companies abide by the sanctions. It lobbied SWIFT, to drop its services to EU-sanctioned Iranian financial institutions.” - A New Foreign Policy for the Left, Fabian Society (2019)
Miliband couldn't rely on Trump to come to his aid
Further bad news came for the coalition as the ONS reported an economic contraction for the first time since 2011. The pound sank after the data was released, raising fears of a recession. Against the dollar, sterling fell to $1.2. Against the euro, it dropped throughout the day to nearly €1 to a pound, a level not seen since the global financial crisis a decade ago. Rob Kent-Smith, head of GDP at the ONS, said manufacturing output fell and the construction sector weakened. This represented the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 2011. The ONS said GDP had been "particularly volatile" so far this year because of the uncertainty around the Presidential election. The spokesperson added, "Manufacturing output fell back after a strong start to the year and the service sector delivered no growth at all". Chancellor Angela Smith told the BBC: "I am not expecting a recession at all. And in fact, don't take my word for it. There's not a single leading forecaster out there that is expecting a recession, the Bank of England is not expecting a recession. And that's because they know that the fundamentals remain strong."
The Conservative’s dire economic warnings of the consequence of a second Miliband term seemed to come true as capital began to trickle out of the country, inflation grew and the economy started to contract. Miliband’s decision to demote Chancellor Griffith seemed a poor decision as the economy, and Labour’s poll numbers began to tick down. British business had long complained of the instability of the Traffic Light Coalition and their complaints were finally starting to bite, for the first time in almost a decade, Britain was inching closer and closer to the recession danger zone, and if it all fell down, the blame would fall on Labour’s head.
“Amber Rudd has claimed ‘every Labour government has left an economic crisis. She slammed the Government, criticising “fantasy economics”. “They’ve ruined your finances, they’ve raised your taxes, they’ve saddled the next generation with debt. Every single Labour government in history has left this country with an economic crisis. This one is no exception. Rudd's claim that Labour has always left the country in debt is a large one. How far do the facts support it? If we take “economic crisis” to mean national debt, in short, the answer is yes, but so has every Conservative government. Dr Steve McCabe told us the narrative of Labour’s financial recklessness has roots in the 1970s “as there was a debt crisis under Wilson”. In reality, this was due to external factors including the oil crises that caused fuel to increase as well as trade union disputes. “The fact that the Labour government had to call in the IMF in 1976 left a legacy that this party could not run the economy,” he said.” - Amber Rudd claims ‘every Labour government has left an economic crisis’, Ruchira Sharma, The Independent (2019)
Amber Rudd wanted to take a last few swings at Labour before departing
““UfC’s decision to affiliate to the Liberal Democrats was the right move” - how far do you agree? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam