UfC MP Nick Boles was one of biggest affiliation cheerleaders
“The hopes of centrist voters received a boost after United for Change said it could form a pact with the Liberal Democrats. Chuka Umunna said the parties should agree to a joint electoral list at the next parliamentary election. He said politicians who want to prevent a referendum need to work together following the Presidential election. It comes after his party's former nominee, Heidi Allen, admitted she threatened to quit in an internal row over tactical voting. Umunna told the Today Programme: "The centrist forces in this country need to work even more together than we have." Asked if UfC could form a pact with the Liberal Democrats where their parties would run a joint list, Umunna said: "it would be sensible." He added: "We shouldn't be competing at a general election. We have got to get our ducks in a row and work out what configuration is appropriate for 2020 and beyond instead of using the same model from the 1980s." - UfC raise hopes of a centrist electoral pact with Lib Dems, Patrick Sawer, The Telegraph (2019)
The Presidental Election raised several questions for United for Change, whilst they had passed the 4% threshold, they had failed to supplant the Liberal Democrats as Britain’s main centrist party and with funds running low the party needed to have a frank conversation around it’s future. Two broad factions emerged, the first wanting to merge with, or at least form a joint list with the Liberal Democrats, and those who wanted to keep the party as an independent movement. On the pro-merger side was South East MP John Bercow, Parliamentary Leader Chuka Umunna, and South West Senator Sarah Wollaston. On the anti-merger bloc were East Midlands Senators Anna Soubry and Chris Leslie, as well as London Senator Mike Gapes.
Umunna and Wollaston led the pro-affiliation faction
Umunna opened a channel with the Liberal Democrats, having a personal friendship with their Parliamentary Leader, Jo Swinson from their time in the Ed Balls Government. Swinson offered generous terms, whilst United for Change could remain a nominally independent party, it could affiliate to the Liberal Democrats, similar to the relationship between Labour and the Cooperative Party. UfC joiners would get generous positions on electoral lists and receive the financial security and political infrastructure of the Liberal Democrats. Umunna brought these proposals back to UfC’s executive committee and all hell broke loose. UfC was not in a good spot financially, many of its major donors who had joined excited by the prospect of a new centre party had either gone to the Liberal Democrats or returned to one of the two major parties, the party had grown fast, having offices and staff in every region of the country but without the stable funding from trade unions or business to sustain it.
Umunna argued that the party could not survive on its own, that it wouldn’t be able to pay hundreds of thousands in deposits and other election costs come 2020 and if it stayed independent, the party would die. The Soubryites, on the other hand, argued that the Liberal Democrats were just as bad as Labour and the Greens, having worked with them in coalition for almost a decade and the party could thrive independently. Over 3,000 party elites met at a special conference in Edinburgh to decide on their organisation’s future, passions were high, pro-affiliation figures like Philip Lee debated Soubryites like South East legislator Warren Morgan, eventually, after all the votes were tallied 1,645 delegates to 1,364 in favour of affiliation, United for Change would be joining the Liberal Democrats. Channelling her inner David Owen, Soubry and her supporters walked out the conference declaring herself the Leader of Continuity UfC, alongside 7 MPs, 10 Senators and dozens of legislators. After just weeks in existence, UfC had split.
“Anna Soubry has expressed frustration and sadness at the split in UfC saying Chuka Umunna had “made a very serious mistake”. Soubry, who is now the leader of the remaining 17 legislators, said UfC had been plagued by internal disagreements. “These things are always difficult, but some people weren’t even in the same book, never mind on the same page,” she said. “It’s not to say they didn’t have huge strengths. But you sometimes have to shut up and get on with it. And the idea that you can agree on a strategy and then question it, debate it – sometimes you have to say, can we stop talking and do some campaigning?” Heidi Allen, UfC’s Presidential candidate, also supported affiliating to the Lib Dems. Others prominent affiliation supporters were, Sarah Wollaston, Gavin Shuker and Angela Smith. Those remaining with Soubry are Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Joan Ryan and Ann Coffey, all of whom represented Labour. Soubry said she was particularly stricken by Umunna’s decision. “I will always be sadder than you can imagine that Chuka is not with us." - Anna Soubry: Umunna made ‘serious mistake’ supporting affiliation, Peter Walker, The Guardian (2019)
Umunna hoped a Lib Dem affiliated UfC could be a true third force in British politics
As the UfC drama dominated politics, attention quickly turned to foreign affairs as Iran seized a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The Stena Impero had 23 personnel on board and was heading north towards Iran before it was surrounded by four vessels and a helicopter. The government's emergency committee, Cobra, met in Buckingham to discuss the incident. Foreign Secretary Ed Davey said the Government was “concerned about Iran's unacceptable actions", saying they "represent a clear challenge to international freedom of navigation.”. “We have advised British shipping to stay out of the area for an interim period," he added. Defence Secretary Keir Starmer said the seizures were "completely unacceptable. We are clear that if this situation is not resolved there will be serious consequences," he said. We are not looking at military options. We are looking at a diplomatic way to resolve this situation but we are very clear that it must be resolved. Our ambassador in Tehran is in contact with the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to resolve the situation," he said.
A month into his second term Miliband now faced a standoff with Iran. With Donald Trump in the Whitehouse and the Iran Nuclear Deal on tenterhooks, the international community had to tread carefully and Miliband was hesitant to further inflame tensions. US Secretary of State John Sullivan offered warm words but with relations between Buckingham and the Whitehouse at an all-time low America could not be relied on. The Conservatives meanwhile were seizing on the Stena Impero incident, Amber Rudd slammed the Government’s Defence policy and lack of military spending in PMQs saying “the Navy simply no longer has sufficient numbers of work-horses - frigates and destroyers - to be able to surge vessels into the Gulf when a crisis beckons.” Miliband had hoped to project unity and stability, instead, his first major crisis demonstrated weakness.
Miliband's honeymoon came to a swift end
“Discussions about alliances in foreign policy tend to read like a cartographical roll call of who’s hot and who’s not. China. India. Brazil. The Philippines. Pakistan. Turkey. South Africa. Syria. The combination will depend on the problem at hand, although there are two countries that top all the charts: China, the US. Such discussions are important and should dictate foreign policy spending, resourcing and communication. Power is not just shifting from west to east; it is also seeping away from governments towards the private sector, NGOs and the public. This is having an impact on how foreign policy is delivered and, when done well, can increase impact. For example, Cathy Ashton has received praise for mediating a landmark nuclear agreement with Iran. However, for years the EU has failed to enforce its own sanctions against Iran and companies that trade with it. 18 months before the agreement was signed, UANI had pulled off an amazing coup in its campaign to make companies abide by the sanctions. It lobbied SWIFT, to drop its services to EU-sanctioned Iranian financial institutions.” - A New Foreign Policy for the Left, Fabian Society (2019)
Miliband couldn't rely on Trump to come to his aid
Further bad news came for the coalition as the ONS reported an economic contraction for the first time since 2011. The pound sank after the data was released, raising fears of a recession. Against the dollar, sterling fell to $1.2. Against the euro, it dropped throughout the day to nearly €1 to a pound, a level not seen since the global financial crisis a decade ago. Rob Kent-Smith, head of GDP at the ONS, said manufacturing output fell and the construction sector weakened. This represented the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 2011. The ONS said GDP had been "particularly volatile" so far this year because of the uncertainty around the Presidential election. The spokesperson added, "Manufacturing output fell back after a strong start to the year and the service sector delivered no growth at all". Chancellor Angela Smith told the BBC: "I am not expecting a recession at all. And in fact, don't take my word for it. There's not a single leading forecaster out there that is expecting a recession, the Bank of England is not expecting a recession. And that's because they know that the fundamentals remain strong."
The Conservative’s dire economic warnings of the consequence of a second Miliband term seemed to come true as capital began to trickle out of the country, inflation grew and the economy started to contract. Miliband’s decision to demote Chancellor Griffith seemed a poor decision as the economy, and Labour’s poll numbers began to tick down. British business had long complained of the instability of the Traffic Light Coalition and their complaints were finally starting to bite, for the first time in almost a decade, Britain was inching closer and closer to the recession danger zone, and if it all fell down, the blame would fall on Labour’s head.
“Amber Rudd has claimed ‘every Labour government has left an economic crisis. She slammed the Government, criticising “fantasy economics”. “They’ve ruined your finances, they’ve raised your taxes, they’ve saddled the next generation with debt. Every single Labour government in history has left this country with an economic crisis. This one is no exception. Rudd's claim that Labour has always left the country in debt is a large one. How far do the facts support it? If we take “economic crisis” to mean national debt, in short, the answer is yes, but so has every Conservative government. Dr Steve McCabe told us the narrative of Labour’s financial recklessness has roots in the 1970s “as there was a debt crisis under Wilson”. In reality, this was due to external factors including the oil crises that caused fuel to increase as well as trade union disputes. “The fact that the Labour government had to call in the IMF in 1976 left a legacy that this party could not run the economy,” he said.” - Amber Rudd claims ‘every Labour government has left an economic crisis’, Ruchira Sharma, The Independent (2019)
Amber Rudd wanted to take a last few swings at Labour before departing
““UfC’s decision to affiliate to the Liberal Democrats was the right move” - how far do you agree? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam