"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL

[powerab]

With PR its odd that people like Field and Hoey are in the Labour Party Neither are centrists both are quite hard right, especially Hoey who should be in a Nationalist/Fascist Party.

Didn’t Hoey join UKIP in this TL.

I suspect that a long-term trend in PR would be people who, under FPTP, would've gone into Labour or the Conservatives instead heading into other parties, rather than existing MPs immediately jumping ship. (Especially in Labour, those who are still in it do have a huge loyalty to the brand, so to speak.)

Hoey flirted with it but never took the dive.

@Rattigan is right, most established MPs who came of age before the Commonwealth are too attached to their party brand, whilst younger politicians are more likely to jump ship or just join their preferred party before being elected

 

[powerab]

A police investigation into pro-Medvedev UKIP MP Aaron Banks only inflamed tensions with Russia

“The Culture Committee also backed the National Crime Agency’s investigation of Aaron Banks, which began on 1 November. Banks – a failing insurance salesman – gave the biggest political donation in British history to UKIP: £8 million. The committee said Banks "failed to satisfy us that his own donations had, in fact, come from sources within the Commonwealth." It is reportedly clear that the Kremlin offered Banks a multi-billion dollar goldmine. Banks tweeted four weeks after the 2014 poll “I am buying gold at the moment & big mining stocks.” Taking money from a hostile foreign party would be a national security issue of the highest order. It may raise the prospect of offences under the Trading with the Enemy Act 1939. Vince Cable called it ‘treason’. These four reports are just the tip of the UKIP-berg. A turning point appears to be the run-up to both the Ukrainian conflict and the Paris climate agreement of 2014. Putin has long mocked the existence of manmade climate damage. Russia’s exports are 60% fossil fuels (compared to China with 2% or the UK and US around 8%).” - The extent of Russian-backed in British politics, lecture by Ewan McGaughey, King's College London (2018)

As tensions with Russia heated up Vince Cable, the disgraced former Chancellor was making a political comeback leading the Ministry of Defence. Cable enacted several radical reforms to the Commonwealth army, most notably, allowing women to join special forces like the SAS for the first time. He said for the first time the "armed forces will be determined by ability alone and not gender". A ban on women serving in close combat units in the British military was lifted by the traffic light coalition in 2013. The Commonwealth Armoured Corps, was the first ground close combat branch to open its doors to women in November 2014. Since then, about 40 women had either served in, or been trained to join, the Commonwealth Armoured Corps. Under Cable's new reforms women already serving in the Army were able to apply for the Royal Marines and the infantry. That would then open the door for them to join special forces units such as the SAS after the necessary training. Vince Cable told the BBC: "We very much expect women to be joining the SAS and the Special Boat Service. The value that they'll bring, the impact they'll make will be phenomenal and all the services are looking forward to welcoming them." But, Army Colonel and pundit James Cleverly said the new policy would "cost lives". "

Scottish Tory MP and former service woman Ruth Davidson a strong supporter of the reforms

“The reserves not only help fill the current shortfall in operational capacity, but continue to be a conduit for recruitment. The Commonwealth Forces cost money and are not as flexible in their use as regulars. But reservists only get paid when they attend (either training or on deployment). This means there is no sick pay or holiday pay to worry about, there is no ongoing pension liability, no barrack blocks to maintain. The reserves provide a lot of “bang for your buck”. When defence spending gets squeezed, the reserves get hit first and hardest, they are a soft target. The caricature of the keen but useless, TA soldier is widespread and hardly inspires a desire to fight for their funding. Weekend warriors have fought and died in some of the most dangerous conditions. They deserve some reciprocity for the loyalty that they have shown. While there is much waste in defence spending, taking the knife to front-line capability is short-sighted. If we, as Conservatives, are not willing to protect the budgets of the people who Churchill described as “twice the citizen”, who will?” - Cable’s cutting the budget for the armed forces reserves is short-sighted and cowardly, James Cleverly, Conservative Home

Militarism and the army was one of the coalition’s most notable wedge issues, opinions on the military spanned from out and out pacifists like the Greens who wanted to abolish the army and replace it with a “Commonwealth Self-Defence Force”, all the way to liberal interventionists on the right of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. However allowing women to join was one of the few areas where all the coalition agreed and instead the Conservatives were most divided on the issue, whilst Rudd supported women joining the army and the bill passed easily through Parliament, there was a vocal minority of Tory MPs opposed to the reforms.

As the army reforms passed through Parliament, the most important event of the year arrived, the budget, the last before the Presidential election. The coalition announced a "period of real growth" without "financial conjuring tricks" and "vague promises". Chancellor Nia Griffith said she would "stump up the cash" for schools, councils and social care. Ed Miliband has pledged that almost a decade would come to an end. The coalition announced an extra £40bn in public spending 2022, this not including an extra £30bn promised for the NHS. Figures showed government borrowing was at its highest level since 2008. Conservative Leader Amber Rudd said "If the Chancellor has promised real growth, let's have an honest debate about that." In a speech Rudd said that public spending would need urgent addressing for Griffith to be "true to her word". Stopping departmental freezes planned for next year will cost £10bn, Rudd said. She added shelving further freezes for the period up to 2022 would cost another £20bn. Abandoning welfare freezes planned over the next three years would cost £10bn while another £2bn would need to be found to plug the gap in social care.

Britain faced an ageing population and social care crisis

“The NHS Confederation kicked off the Labour Party conference with a deep dive into NHS funding, a major workstream in 2018. Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, joined Health Secretary Jon Ashworth, UNISON's Christina McAnea. Johnson gave the first contribution, making the case for a 5 percent annual increase to NHS spending and more to improve and modernise the service. He emphasised that if the health system needs money, then the social care system needs more. On Labour’s 2017 manifesto, he commented that of all the proposals to increase public spending, there was little attention paid to social care. As for a mechanism of how to raise the necessary money, he advocated a broad-based tax solution, rather than focusing on wealth or business taxes. On this point, Christina McAnea agreed and argued that a long-term sustainable plan was necessary. She said such a plan with workable arrangements for funding would be the manifestation of a contemporary Nye Bevan moment. She noted, however, that it would take a brave politician to come up with a policy that was radical.” - Does the Labour Party need another Nye Bevan moment to plug the social care gap?, NHS Confederation (2018)

Originating from the “soft-left” of the Labour Party, Griffith was one of the most left wing Chancellors in British history, compared to the ironclad commitment to restrained spending from former Chancellors Umunna and Cable. However this did lead to the deficit and the debt ballooning. Meanwhile on the Conservatives there was disagreement on how to react. Both Presidential candidates Theresa May and Sajid Javid made a central part of their campaign around getting control over Labour’s spending. Meanwhile the more populist campaigns of Johnson and Raab supported relaxing spending rules, all the while a huge political space opened up for an anti deficit movement to emerge.

Farage became one of the loudest voices against Labour's debt

The coalition was getting comfortable in Government after seven years in power, especially the Greens who had well and truly been institutionalised as an establishment party. However on the ground the more radical parts of environmentalism were breaking from the Greens, this movement came in the form of the Extinction Rebellion. Eighty people were arrested as demonstrators occupied London to voice their concern over the climate crisis. Protesters, including families and pensioners, began massing on five of London’s main bridges. All the major crossings were blocked in one of the biggest acts of peaceful civil disobedience in Britain in decades. Some people locked themselves together, while others linked arms and sang songs. Demonstrators occupied Southwark, Blackfriars, Waterloo, Westminster and Lambeth bridges. The Metropolitan police said that most of the arrests had been for obstruction under the Highways Act. Afterwards, demonstrators gathered in Parliament Square to hear speeches. Roger Hallam, one of the strategists behind the actions, told attendees he felt the protest had been fantastic. “This is total prediction stuff, mass participation, civil disobedience,” he said. “They can’t do anything about it unless they start shooting people, and presumably they won’t do that.” The day was due to end with an interfaith ceremony outside Westminster Abbey.

The Traffic Light coalition had long seen a dilemma with radical protest movements, stretching back to the student and Occupy protests of the early 2010s. Ed Miliband had ridden to the Presidency on the back of these protest movements, but as the coalition remained in power for longer, and change seemingly never came, increasingly street protesters moved away from the coalition. Extinction Rebellion was a clear example of this, many Green MPs had come up through traditional moderate environmentalist charities, as such many of these campaigns halted direct action in favour of lobbying friendly MPs and ministers. But now the Extinction Rebellion had come and they weren’t playing by the old rules, for the first time, the coalition faced real pressure to it’s left.

““We’re fucked,” Roger Hallam told me several times, and put the chances of his children reaching his age at “somewhere between 2 and 20 per cent”. “No one is saying we’ve not made progress but we are approaching the foothills,” he went on. “Read some history. Look at the rise of Islam. Look at the rise of Christianity. That’s what we are looking at here.” It is too late to change a few policies – “you can’t preserve the geophysical composition of the planet through a few government policies”. To save mankind there needs to be a revolution, “a massive social and political transformation”, and even that might no longer be enough. Fond of analogies, Hallam likened humanity’s plight to someone reaching a very high wall as a gunman chases him. He has no chance of scaling it, but a faint chance of escaping if he can somehow find a ladder. “There’s a zero percent chance of saving us through conventional activism,” he said. “There’s a 1 percent chance through the ladder option.” That ladder is what he believes Extinction Rebellion provides.” - Extinction Rebellion: Green rebels with a cause, Martin Fletcher, New Statesman (2018)

Environmentalists were finished waiting for the coalition

To what extent did Extinction Rebellion represent a split in the Green Party? (30 Marks) - A Level Politics Exam (2019)

 

[JDGiant]

With PR its odd that people like Field and Hoey are in the Labour Party Neither are centrists both are quite hard right, especially Hoey who should be in a Nationalist/Fascist Party.

Hoey's natural home is probably on the left-wing edge of the DUP. She's a bit too socially liberal for an outright fascist party and not free markety enough to be a Tory.

Field isn't really a great fit for any party. A close historical comparison to him is someone like Desmond Donnelly.

 

[powerab]

The South East had been ruled by Premier Philip Hammond since 2014, First Minister David Lidington had overseen a right-wing coalition of Conservatives and UKIP since 2011. An ally of former Premier Theresa May, Lidington was a fairly unassuming moderate but had ruled the South East with quiet competence for the last six years. Despite being a europhile, Lidington had gone into coalition with UKIP leading to several clashes with his junior coalition partner. However the South East's ecnomoy continued to grow and Lidington was scandal free, as UKIP collapsed the South East Tories absorbed their votes, and David Lidington became the first South East First Minister to receive an overall majority from the voters.

Labour was led by arch-Blairite Peter Kyle, Kyle built his campaign around opposition to a potential EU referendum, the South East sat at the mouth of Europe and Kyle feared it's economy could be hit hard by a referendum. Kyle was photogenic and a good speaker, Labour too benefited from the collapse of UKIP, leading Kyle's party to pick up ten seats.

The Liberal Democrats were led by Oxfordshire legislator Layla Moran. Hailing from the left of the party, Moran hoped to outflank Labour as the South East's main progress force. She particularly tried to appeal to younger voters through her support of universal basic income and new green. Unfortunately for Moran, her campaign was overshadowed by the Tory wave and she failed to pick up any additional seats.

As for the minor parties, the Greens struggled due to national divisions, losing two seats. UKIP on the other hand saw division and collapse, First Minister Marta Andreasen had been long time critic of Nigel Farage and William Legge, leading to a split in South East UKIP and the party facing a 13% swing, Andreasen would defect to the Tories a few weeks after.

"A senior member of the UK Independence Party has said she is leaving the party to join the Conservatives. Marta Andreasen, leader of UKIP in the South East Parliament, sent her resignation letter to UKIP on Friday. It comes two weeks after UKIP was drubbed in the regional elections. She accused UKIP leader William Legge of bullying and being "anti-women" and "a Stalinist". In response, Legge said the Tories "deserve what is coming to them" and added: "The woman is impossible." Ms Andreasen, 62, said resigning from UKIP to join the Conservatives was not a decision that she took lightly. In an open letter expressing her dissatisfaction with UKIP, she accused Mr Legge of treating any views other than his own with contempt. Ms Andreasen said she did not believe the party could offer "real leadership". She said Legge and Farage surrounded themselves with "an old boys club of like-minded sycophants". Conservative Premier Philip Hammond said he was "delighted" to welcome her to his party." - UKIP's Marta Andreasen defects to Conservatives, BBC South East (2018)

 

[Rillium]

I'm loving UKIP falling to pieces in this TL.

 

[Fenrisúlfr]

Speaking of armed forces recruitment reform, what is the minimum age of military recruitment in the TL?

In OTL the UK recruits at 16, mostly for the infantry or logistics (truck drivers). I believe the Green party, Plaid, the SNP, and the Lib Dems support raising the minimum age of military recruitment to 18 in OTL, although the SNP only support it because I ran a campaign to change party policy on the issue. If I'm not around in this TL I don't know what their policy would be. There's also a few Labour MPs and at least one Tory that support raising the age of recruitment.

Here's an interesting fact for you, what is the age at which you are legally an adult in England and Wales? 18. What age does the military recruit at? You can join up at 15 years and 7 months. Therefore the UK is one of the few countries in the world that recruits child soldiers. The UN Committee for the Rights of the Child produces a report on child rights in the UK every 4 or 5 years and they always condemn the UK on this issue. Roughly 2,000 under-18s are recruited a year. It's pretty fucked up.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

I'm loving UKIP falling to pieces in this TL.

+1

Really enjoying it.

 

[Orchard]

Tony Blair and Michael Howard infoboxes?

 

[powerab]

Speaking of armed forces recruitment reform, what is the minimum age of military recruitment in the TL?

In OTL the UK recruits at 16, mostly for the infantry or logistics (truck drivers). I believe the Green party, Plaid, the SNP, and the Lib Dems support raising the minimum age of military recruitment to 18 in OTL, although the SNP only support it because I ran a campaign to change party policy on the issue. If I'm not around in this TL I don't know what their policy would be. There's also a few Labour MPs and at least one Tory that support raising the age of recruitment.

Here's an interesting fact for you, what is the age at which you are legally an adult in England and Wales? 18. What age does the military recruit at? You can join up at 15 years and 7 months. Therefore the UK is one of the few countries in the world that recruits child soldiers. The UN Committee for the Rights of the Child produces a report on child rights in the UK every 4 or 5 years and they always condemn the UK on this issue. Roughly 2,000 under-18s are recruited a year. It's pretty fucked up.

Yes the recruitment age was raised to 18 during the 14-17 Parliament by the TLC. I'd like to imagine we're all around in this TL doing our things. But yes OTL military law is rather mental

 

[Fenrisúlfr]

Yes the recruitment age was raised to 18 during the 14-17 Parliament by the TLC. I'd like to imagine we're all around in this TL doing our things. But yes OTL military law is rather mental

Just another reason I'd rather live in this timeline.

I think my life would be broadly similar up until the age of 20. It's hard to overstate how big an impact the indyref had on my politics and outlook on life. Without it, I might not have become politically active at all. Or if I had I might have joined the Greens or even the SSP rather than the SNP. I wouldn't have met my girlfriend of two years and best friend, as we met at an event for young pro-indy Scots. I wouldn't have got a job working in the Scottish Parliament, which I only got through my activism. Without that job and without Brexit, I wouldn't have moved into the Civil Service. Yup, my life would be very different.

Anyway, I'm loving the TL as always Powerab. Looking forward to being able to nominate you for a Turtledove.

EDIT: What are socio-economic indicators like in this TL? I suspect the UK is a happier, more equal place?

 

[powerab]

Just another reason I'd rather live in this timeline.

I think my life would be broadly similar up until the age of 20. It's hard to overstate how big an impact the indyref had on my politics and outlook on life. Without it, I might not have become politically active at all. Or if I had I might have joined the Greens or even the SSP rather than the SNP. I wouldn't have met my girlfriend of two years and best friend, as we met at an event for young pro-indy Scots. I wouldn't have got a job working in the Scottish Parliament, which I only got through my activism. Without that job and without Brexit, I wouldn't have moved into the Civil Service. Yup, my life would be very different.

Anyway, I'm loving the TL as always Powerab. Looking forward to being able to nominate you for a Turtledove.

EDIT: What are socio-economic indicators like in this TL? I suspect the UK is a happier, more equal place?

I've been thinking about that too, my first politics jobs was in a Yorkshire MP's constituency office so I could have ended up in the Yorkshire Parliament ITL. Political staffers in general have a much better time ITL as there's a lot more jobs to go around rather than fighting for the few hundred political jobs available OTL.

As for socio-economics, generally speaking as the TLC ended austerity a good few years earlier than OTL, over the long term the British economy bounced back quicker so it is in a better position than the OTL 2018 economy (although the overall debt is larger). Personal inequality is generally a lot smaller but regional inequalities have grown as London and South East are far richer than their Northern cousins. Generally people are happier, the Commonwealth is more of a continental social democracy so public services like the railways are in a better condition, however this does come at a cost of higher taxes.

This may come as a result of my own political biases but I do like to think that Britain would be a happier and more equal place ITL, but I'm sure someone with different politics to me could make a compelling argument to the contrary.

 

[powerab]

May's debate focused on her blue-collar middle class appeal

“I will invest in our workforce – helping people train and retrain and in our schools, I will bring back high standards. Where Labour have rolled-back reform by scrapping academies, I will build more of them, because every child deserves a great start in life. Every child, in every town and city, across the whole country. So that is our Conservative answer. Fixing markets, not destroying them. Helping with the cost of living. Ending the debt. An economy of the future with nowhere left behind. This is how we will build a country that works for everyone. I made that my mission when I stood for the Presidency. And it is the future this Party will deliver. Our future is in our hands. Every person in this hall has the power to shape that future. This is a moment of opportunity for our party. To champion decency in our politics. To be the moderate, patriotic government this country needs. To be a party not for the few, not even for the many, but for everyone who works hard and plays by the rules. And it's a moment of opportunity for our country.” - Theresa May’s Debate Opening Statement (2018)

With the Presidential field narrowed down to eight, the conversation quickly moved to the Nottingham primary debate. The debate was moderated by Emily Maitlis, the anchor of Newsnight and a veteran presenter, and was viewed by over seven million people Whilst May was storming ahead by all metrics, she was not an accomplished debater, performing poorly against Douglas Alexander in the 2015 Senate debates. Some of her main rivals like Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid were accomplished debaters and expectations were high for their performances, the Johnson campaign especially had funnelled a lot of time and resources into prepping their man, a strong debate could put him back in the game, a poor show and he’d be unable to catch up.

During the debate May struck a hopeful and optimistic approach, May’s campaign slogan was “Our Future is in Our Hands''. She pledged to lead a “patriotic, moderate and modern government”. Opportunity was a large part of her campaign pitch pledging to deliver a socially mobile society for all who “played by the rules”. May’s advisers had instructed her to show a more personal side, she spoke of her upbringing as a middle class grammar school girl and child of a rural vicar. Her background stood in contrast to the posh private schools of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. Overall whilst May’s delivery was wooden and unpolished, she avoided any major gaffes, her campaign would go on to live another day.

May's debate hadn't been a disaster, as the front-runner that was all she needed

“This year marks a century since the end of the First World War. "At the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them." We do remember them. We remember the young men who left their homes to fight and die in the mud and horror of the trenches. We remember the sailors who shovelled coal into hellfire furnaces in the bowels of battleships. We remember the selflessness of a remarkable generation, whose legacy is the freedom we enjoy today. I think of Hubert Grant – my father's cousin in whose honour he was named. Hubert fought and died at Passchendaele at the age of 19. Last year, at the service to mark the centenary of that battle, I took a moment to find his name on the Menin Gate, alongside thousands of his comrades. We will remember them. But, alongside a commitment to remember, they inscribed a command that still calls to us today: "see to it that they shall not have suffered and died in vain." Those words express a determination that transformed our country.” - Theresa May’s answer to a debate question on defence (2018)

David Davis the half maverick, half elder statesman, wildcard put in a disappointing show. Davis made an old fashioned Tory pitch to business, promising to cut red tape and corporation tax, painting a picture of a swashbuckling global Britain. Davis had long had a libertarian streak, from ID cards to free trade, and he learnt on his record as the man to deliver Britain's oppressed business from the clutches of Miliband’s overextended state. Davis too spoke about his lifelong euroscepticism stating that Britain needed a President who believed it could thrive outside the EU. Overall Davis’ contribution to the debate had been fairly predictable, he didn’t rock the boat and was drowned out by more charismatic eurosceptics.

Boris Johnson however delivered on all his expectations and then some, in a barnstorming performance. Johnson’s election tagline was “Believe in Britain” and he gave nationalist chest thumping answers to Maitlis’ questions. Johnson was by far the most aggressive debater on stage, dressing down his opponents one by one in a Trumpian fashion. He slammed the more europhilic candidates like Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid for refusing to back a referendum. In what had been a very boring debate Johnson had blasted through.

Of all the candidates Mogg had the worst debate, Mogg was an eccentricity, not used to the cut and thrust of front-line politics. Mogg managed to insult almost all the voting public, but his greatest gaffe came when he claimed he would have survived the Grenfell Tower incident due to having more “common sense” than the people trapped inside: “If you ignore what you’re told and leave you are so much safer,” he said. If any of us were in a fire, whatever the fire brigade said, we would leave the burning building. It's the common sense thing to do. And it is such a tragedy that that didn’t happen.” Mogg was strongly criticised by his fellow competitors and booed by the crowd, his campaign was over.

Mogg overstepped and destroyed his own campaign

“We must never forget that wealth can be created or destroyed, but it is much harder to create than destroy. We are coming to a fork in the road. We can take the familiar path that leads to a gradual erosion of our wealth, our success and our values, by staying close to the EU. We could manage decline. Or we could take another road that may look to us now like an unfamiliar one. In which case our best days lie before us. From the repeal of the Corn Laws to the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution to being co-architect of the post-war system, Britain has led the way. Britain has been called on to be a shaper not only of our destiny but that of the whole world. If we get it right by opening up our markets, seeing the benefits of free trade and regulations that encourage enterprise others will follow. The EU has too many pen pushers to dare, the US is too big to care. Only a medium sized, flexible economy can lead the way and the next great economic revolution should be made in Britain for the benefit of the world.” - Rees Mogg answering a debate question on the economy (2018)

Gove too had a disastrous debate. In a question around the re-criminalisation of cannabis and attitudes to other recreational drugs, Gove let slip that he had taken cocaine at social events as a young graduate. Gove received condemnations from all sides as, when he was education secretary, he had ordered mandatory drug tests for teachers with the threat of redundancy and, whilst DWP Secretary, he had supported withdrawing unemployment benefits from class A drug users. Gove was rightly accused of hypocrisy and was off-kilter for the rest of the night.

Whilst he didn’t have the overwhelming victory Johnson secured, Javid too had a solid night in the debate. As the only ethnic minority on the stage, Javid used his family background as the son of immigrants. He spoke passionately of how for his parents, Britain was an opportunity for freedom, security and opportunity. Javid spoke of his pride at being a Brit and his ambition for the country. Javid also referred to his experience as First Minister of the West Midlands, pointing to a sharp decline in crime and economic growth, all in all Javid gave a convincing message.

Javid was one of the few candidates with recent executive experience

Jeremy Hunt had a fairly boring debate. Hunt extolled on his foreign policy experience as multinational businessman and former International Development Secretary, arguing he would be the man to lead Britain on the world stage. Hunt argued that under a Labour Parliament, the President’s main role would be in international affairs and fighting terror abroad. Unfortunately for Hunt, his wonkish message failed to cut through with the party grassroots, and he was ignored for his louder opponents.

Whilst he didn’t crash and burn like Mogg or Gove, Raab too struggled in the debate. He had to fend off Davis and Johnson to show himself as the eurosceptic challenger to May’s hegemony. Raab was by far the most eurosceptic candidate, pledging to work “day and night” to get Britain out of the EU as his “first and only priority”. Raab promised a golden land of a free Britain, with trade deals around the world. Unfortunately for Raab, Johnson said what he said only better. Raab was clearly agitated on stage and snapped at Maitlis and other candidates on several occasions and quickly fell in the polls.

In the aftermath of the debate most snap polls showed Johnson and Javid as the winners and Mogg and Gove as the losers. YouGov’s snap poll had 34% of respondents declaring Johnson the winner of the debate, followed by 18% for Javid, 15% for Hunt, 15% for Davis, 12% for May and 2% a piece for Raab, Gove and Mogg. Gove and Mogg would both drop out the race hours after the debate, the field of eight was now down to just six, and whilst May led, Johnson was beginning to shrink her lead.

“As Paul Goodman might confirm, I am not naturally of a timid disposition. It is not my way to confide my innermost fears. But I will reveal that I have one overriding anxiety about the current political scene, both domestic and international. My friends, there is only one thing I worry about in this critical autumn of 2018, and that is this party should lose confidence in its belief in freedom. And after 1000 years of independence this country might lose confidence in its institutions. And that we should be so demoralised and so exhausted as to submit those institutions – forever – to foreign rule. If I have a function here today – it is to try, with all humility, to put some lead in the collective pencil. I have to stop what seems to me to be a ridiculous seeping away of our self-belief. I have to invite you to feel realistic and justified confidence in what we can do. Not in a spirit of jingo or glib partisanship, because I know that this is a time of trial.” - Boris Johnson debate closing statement (2018)

Johnson was the uncontested victor of the debate, but he still lagged far behind May in the polls

“The Nottingham debate saved Boris Johnson’s Presidential bid” - How far do you agree? (30 Marks) - A Level Politics Exam (2019)

 

[Orchard]

With JRM as my otl local MP I don’t know how to feel

 

[powerab]

Anthony Charles Lynton Blair (born 6 May 1953) is a British politician who served as the First President of the Commonwealth of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from 1999 to 2004, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1997 to 2007 and Leader of the Opposition from 1994 to 1997. After his resignation, he was appointed Special Envoy of the Quartet on the Middle East, an office which he held until 2015. He currently serves as the executive chairman of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, established in 2016. As President, Blair advocated the "Third Way."

Blair was born in Edinburgh; his father, Leo, was a barrister and academic. After attending the independent school Fettes College, he studied law at St John's College, Oxford and became a barrister. He became involved in Labour politics and was elected Member of Parliament for Sedgefield in 1983. He supported moving the party to the centre of British politics in an attempt to help it win power (it had been out of government since 1979). He was appointed to the party's frontbench in 1988 and became Shadow Home Secretary in 1992. He became Leader of the Opposition on his election as Labour Party leader in 1994, following the sudden death of his predecessor, John Smith. Under Blair, the party used the phrase "New Labour" to distance itself from previous Labour politics and the traditional idea of socialism. Despite opposition from Labour's left wing, he abolished Clause IV, the party's formal commitment to the nationalisation of the economy, weakened trade union influence in the party, and committed to the free market and the European Union. In 1997, the Labour Party won its largest landslide general election victory in its history. Blair became the country's youngest leader since 1812. Blair was Prime Minister during the 1997 Diana Crisis and spearheaded constitutional reform and the Commonwealth of Britain Bill, leading to the 1999 Commonwealth of Britain referendum, the abolish of the British Monarchy and the establishment of the Commonwealth. He lost his reelection bid in 2004 and was succeeded by Conservative Michael Howard

Blair's governments enacted constitutional reforms, removing the British Monarchy, reforming British elections from First Past the Post to Proportional Representation, replacing the House of Lords with an elected Senate, while also establishing the British Supreme Court and reforming the office of Lord Chancellor (thereby separating judicial powers from the legislative and executive branches). His government paved the way for the establishment of Parliaments for all of the Commonwealth's Nations and Regions in 1999. He was also involved in negotiating the Good Friday Agreement. His time in office occurred during a period of continued economic growth, but this became increasingly dependent on mounting debt. In 1997, his government gave the Bank of England powers to set interest rates autonomously and he later oversaw a large increase in public spending, especially in healthcare and education. He championed multiculturalism and, between 1997 and 2004 immigration rose sharply. His other social policies were generally progressive; he introduced the National Minimum Wage Act 1998, the Human Rights Act 1998 and the Freedom of Information Act 2000. However, he declared himself "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" and oversaw increasing incarceration rates and new anti-social behaviour legislation, despite contradictory evidence about the change in crime rates.

Blair oversaw British interventions in Kosovo (1999) and Sierra Leone (2000) which were generally perceived as successful. During the War on Terror, he supported the foreign policy of the George W. Bush administration and ensured that the British Armed Forces participated in the War in Afghanistan from 2001 and, more controversially, the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Blair argued that the Saddam Hussein regime possessed an active weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program, but no stockpiles of WMDs or an active WMD program were ever found in Iraq. The Iraq War became increasingly unpopular among the British public, and he was criticised by opponents and (in 2016) the Iraq Inquiry for waging an unjustified and unnecessary invasion. His legacy remains controversial, not least because of his interventions in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. Despite his electoral successes and reforms, he has also been criticised for his relationship with the media, centralisation of executive powers, and aspects of his social and economic policies.

- Taken from Wikipedia, November 2018

 

[BetterCallPaulson]

How are Gibraltar, Isle of Mann, Jersey and Guernsey going?

 

[powerab]

How are Gibraltar, Isle of Mann, Jersey and Guernsey going?

Fairly similar to OTL, they all turned their backs on the Monarchy during the 2000s and remain close ties to the Commonwealth, beef with Spain is always in issue for Gibraltar but due to Miliband's strong relationship with the EU there is less tension than OTL

 

[Analytical Engine]

Fairly similar to OTL, they all turned their backs on the Monarchy during the 2000s and remain close ties to the Commonwealth, beef with Spain is always in issue for Gibraltar but due to Miliband's strong relationship with the EU there is less tension than OTL

Are the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands still British dependencies, or are they considered fully independent now?

 

[powerab]

Are the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands still British dependencies, or are they considered fully independent now?

Still British dependencies, now they're "Commonwealth Dependencies" instead of Crown Dependencies

 

[powerab]

14 legislators from the "Laissez-faire Caucus" of UKIP announced they were leaving the party

“Fourteen UKIP legislators have left the party and branded it a "vehicle of hate towards Muslims and the gay community". A resignation letter, headed by Senator Bill Etheridge said the party had "changed beyond all recognition". In a letter to leader William Legge, the defectors said they joined the party as a "patriotic, freedom loving alternative to the British people". The letter added: "The changes you have made have changed the party beyond recognition. The party is now seen by large swathes of the British public as a vehicle of hate towards Muslims and the gay community. We wish UKIP well and leave with great sadness that the party we loved has left us and taken a different direction." Legge said this year's party conference had shown members were behind him and called on the defectors to resign and face a by-election. "I am sure the loss of salary, daily allowance, and pension rights would be a small price to pay for people of principle." - 14 UKIP legislators resign, BBC News (2018)

After months on the verge of collapse, a reckoning finally came for UKIP. A group of nine Senators and five MPs, under the leadership of West Midlands Senator Bill Etheridge, announced they would be splitting from UKIP and forming the “Libertarian Party”. The legislators all claimed they could no longer serve under the leadership of William Legge. They said the new party would support a system with less government interference and lower taxes. Etheridge, acting leader of the Libertarian Party said: "I have always campaigned on libertarian values. UKIP has turned its back on those values, but I never will. I am excited to get to work on a libertarian party and introduce libertarian ideas to the great debates of our time.” The politician brought an end to his nine years with UKIP, citing his 'despair' at the extremist direction of the leadership. In their resignation letter to Legge, the defectors claimed the leader had 'changed the party beyond all recognition'. Etheridge hinted more MPs from other parties might jump ship. "It is great to be able to give a Libertarian voice in our country. We welcome those from other parties, who consider themselves Libertarians, to do the same.”

The Libertarians hoped to attract Nigel Farage to their party

The Libertarians weren’t the only faction to jump ship, five MPs and 11 Senators from UKIP's left-wing, led by Patrick O’Flynn, announced they were forming a new party, the Social Democratic Party. The defectors blamed what they called leader William Legge's "fixation with Islam". The defectors also claimed UKIP had become an "impediment to leaving the EU". In a press conference, O'Flynn said that when he asked himself who "moderate eurosceptic voters" should vote for, the answer was "not UKIP". O'Flynn added: "Without any mandate from the membership or to go down this path, William is transforming what UKIP stands for and offers to voters. Many longstanding party members have already left as a result." Defecting MP Steven Winstone said: "We have decided to join the resurgent SDP, which espouses broad and moderate pro-nation state political values." He said this would allow the defecting caucus to make a "bigger contribution to the cause we were elected to pursue".

There had always been a tension in UKIP between libertarians like Etheridge and Social Democrats like O’Flynn, Legge had achieved the incredible and managed to alienate both factions leading to a three way split in the party. Now UKIP has been reduced to less than 20 seats pushing it below the Greens and SNP. Most of the media turned to Farage, whilst he was unlikely to join the left-leaning SDP, some suspected he would follow his protege into the Libertarian Party, several predicted Etheridge was a stalking horse for Farage, creating a comfy landing spot for UKIP’s godfather to land. Farage’s lips were sealed, UKIP’s civil war had officially begun.

"Whether Tommy Robinson joins Ukip, the party is on a course it has no plans to turn back from any time soon. Bill Etheridge says Legge is “unstoppable” once he gets an idea into his mind and grabs it with both hands. “You can point out to William that he’s walking into an absolute storm but if he believes it’s the right thing to do he will carry on,” he argues. “He would have walked over the top of the trenches into a hail of machine gun bullets - and he would expect them to bounce off him.” Legge agrees: "We've got to hold our nerve,” he says. “We have got to do some bold things. Because you can only move forward by taking bold action in politics. That is what I've done and I will stand by the results.” - How Ukip became the party of Tommy Robinson, Emilio Casalicchio, The House (2018)

EDL leader Tommy Robinson had announced his intention to run for President as a UKIP candidate

Meanwhile in national politics, the Senate was moved after Labour Senator Lloyd Russell Moyle announced to the world he was HIV positive.Russell Moyle was the first legislator to reveal his HIV status on the floor Senate and the second to disclose he is living with the condition. He said he felt compelled to speak out about an issue which had affected him. Russell-Moyle urged ministers to review freezes to sexual health budgets. He told the Senate that next year would mark 10 years since he became HIV positive. Finding out he had the virus was a "real shock" but it was "not the end of the world, even though it might feel like that for a few seconds", Russell-Moyle, said. "It's been a long journey, from the fear to acceptance, and from today advocacy, knowing my treatment keeps me healthy." He added: "I finally wanted to be able to stand in this place and tell all those out there living with HIV, that their status does not define them. We can be whoever we want to be and to those who haven't been tested out of fear, I say it is better to live in knowledge than die in fear." The Senator said he chose the timing of his announcement to mark the 30th World Aids Day.

Russell-Moyle had long been a rising star of the Labour left and considered a future Presidential candidate. His announcement was heralded as a sign of the progress made in LGBT rights in the Commonwealth. The only other senior politician who had served whilst being LGBT positive was former Islington Mayor Chris Smith, who had served as Mayor of Islington from 1999-2004 and London Senator from 2007-2011 who came out in 2004 to much scrutiny. The difference in experience between Smith and Russell Moyle was noted by many as President Miliband herald his “brilliant and historic speech”. Russell Moyle became a symbol of the new tolerant, progressive Britain.

Russell-Moyle was named President Miliband's "HIV Tsar"

“Russell-Moyle wants people to understand HIV better. “I want to get to the stage where I don’t have to explain that if you take one pill a day, you become undetectable you cannot pass the virus on to anyone,” he said. That’s why Mr Russell-Moyle wants to reform certain laws. One European Union law forbids people living with HIV from obtaining a full pilot licence. “It’s outdated considering that HIV treatment now involves a pill a day with no side-effects,” he said. Not funding vaccine research will cost the government in the long run and ruin lives, he predicted. “It’s a race against the disease, and if we slow down at this stage we will likely see a rebound,” he said. According to the Department of Health, 12% of people living with HIV in Britain are unaware of their diagnosis. Mr Russell-Moyle had launched a Making HIV History campaign to encourage people to come forward for testing. “We have got the drugs, the tools to allow everyone to live, so for those who don’t know their status: get tested, get treatment, it will be okay.” He concluded, “It is okay.”” - Stigma makes HIV life-threatening, UNAIDS (2018)

As UKIP was tearing itself apart, the Conservatives too faced an internal battle as their Presidential primary raged. Amber Rudd, the party’s Parliamentary leader who had thrown her hat into the ring to run for President only to withdraw days later due to a lack of funds, faced an official vote of no-confidence. She had received over 37 letters of no-confidence, triggering an official vote of the Parliamentary Tory Party. Rudd survived the challenge, receiving 153 votes to 90 against. In a press conference afterwards, she vowed she had listened to the concerns of MPs who voted against her. Rudd announced she would not lead the Tories into the 2020 election and would stand aside for an official leadership contest after the 2019 Presidential election. Her supporters urged the party to get behind her but critics said losing the support of a third of MPs was "devastating". Rudd ally Clair Perry admitted the level of opposition was "not at all comfortable" for the leader and a "real blow" to her authority. Speaking shortly after the result was announced, Rudd said she would be "laser-focused" on fighting to elect a Tory President in May. "I am pleased to have received the backing of my colleagues in tonight's ballot," she said. Whilst I am grateful for that support, a significant number of colleagues did cast a vote against me and I have listened to what they said. But, we cannot risk a divisive leadership challenge so close to the Presidential election."

On all levels, from Presidential to Parliamentary, the Tories were trapped in a civil war, and no one seemed able to pull the party back together. The party’s moderates concerned with it’s growing euroscepticism and social conservatism were especially weary at the direction the party was travelling. Rudd was the last bastion of Osbornism, and with her on the way out and Boris Johnson on the ascendant, the Conservatives were becoming increasingly unrecognisable, and with the traffic light coalition lurching to the left, several Osbornites began to eye up the political void calling to them.

“You have to be true to what you believe in. The Labour party is a lost cause for anybody who is moderate and sensible and believes in that left-of-centre view of life. But my party is not quite lost yet and there is a good chance it will return to sanity.” Soubry may think her party can be saved, but she doubts whether May will be the one to save it. “She will lose the primary and we will get a leader from the right,” she says. If that leader were Boris Johnson, she would leave the party and sit as an independent Senator, she says. “If he becomes the nominee then I’m off,” she says. “I’m not serving in the same party as Boris Johnson. He’s proved that he’s incapable of holding high office, never mind being prime minister. He’s not true to what he believes in. I have no time for him.” With cultists taking over on right and left, does she see any scope for a new party of the centre? “I know there are millions and millions of people out there who feel nobody represents them, but those are conversations and debates for another time.” - Saturday Interview: Anna Soubry, Stephen Moss, The Guardian (2018)

Soubry chaired the "One Nation Caucus" of Moderate Tory MPs, she refused to endorse any of the six remaining Presidential candidates

“To what extent did the Libertarian Party split cause the downfall of UKIP? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam (2019)

 

[Orchard]

Brilliant but terrifying stuff. What are the SDPs and Libertarians views on monarchy?