"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL

[Orchard]

Makes sense. All of the running mates are otl Deputy leaders so I’m not surprised.

 

[powerab]

After a bout of ill health, Campbell decided it was best to quit whilst he was ahead

“Speaker Campbell – better known as Ming to most – has fought many battles. In the 1960s, he competed in athletics at the highest level and held the British 100 yards sprint record for seven years. His interest in politics stretches back to his days at Glasgow University, and he would go on to clock up a career as an MP, eventually becoming Speaker. But in 2002 came the moment when he admits: "I considered my mortality for the first time". He was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, a cancer of the lymphatic system. He was treated with chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and recovered. When we meet, Speaker Campbell, now 77, navigates the warren of creaky corridors and rickety staircases that lead to his office with ease. He now wants to talk about how he recently tackled his latest challenge: a double hip replacement. It’s over a year and a half since he had the second operation. ‘By the end, I was in constant agony,’ he says. ‘Any weight, of any kind, put on either of my hips was excruciating. Now, people who don’t know can’t tell I’ve had the surgery.” - How Ming Campbell survived blood cancer and now double joint replacement, Moira Petty, Daily Mail (2017)

By Commonwealth law, Parliament was dissolved at least six weeks before election day, to free up time for the parties and politicians to campaign. However before the House could rise and return to their constituencies, they still had one last task to complete. Ming Campbell, the 77 year old Speaker of the House of Commons. Announcing his intention to retire at the 2017 election, nearly 80, Campbell had been an MP for 30 years and felt it was time to ride off into the sunset. Campbell had been a notable Speaker, the first third-party speaker for decades, Campbell had been living proof of the new politics of the Commonwealth, heralding a “rainbow house” in his election as speaker back in 2009

Campbell's "rainbow House" speech, promoting the merits of plurality and multi-party democracy, had catapulted him into the Speaker's chair

Campbell had been a liberal activist speaker, frequently clashing with the executive and speaking his mind on everything from Europe to Donald Trump. Campbell’s small-L liberal approach had endeared him to many, especially younger and backbench MPs, but many had grown tired of Campbell’s interventionist style and wanted a more traditionalist, conservative Speaker. Furthermore, the main parties were eager to reclaim the Speakership from the uppity third parties, Campbell had come to the chair on a wave of good will from Tory and Labour MPs, the party bigwigs made clear this would not happen again.

The third parties were happy to obliged, with an election looming, neither the Greens, UKIP or SNP wanted to look like the “establishment”. UKIP’s outgoing Parliamentary Leader Maloclm Pearson (with encouragement from Farage) ordered members of his caucus not to run for the Speakership, effectively ruling any of UKIP’s 100 strong MPs from the race. Including Julia Reid, UKIP’s Deputy Speaker The Greens SNP and Lib Dems were hesitant to waste political capital on a Speakership race when the larger parties were clear none of them number would make the cut. Pete Wishart, the only third party candidate withdrew due to a lack of support, thus the race was left to the red and blue teams.

“SNP MP Pete Wishart has announced he will not seek to stand for the position of Speaker of the House of Commons. He says he intends to continue working “flat out” for independence and devote his time to working towards the next referendum. The role of speaker is being vacated by Ming Campbell, who is standing down. Wishart hit out at detractors who claimed his interest in standing showed a “lack of commitment” to independence. He said that standing in a contest in which he knew he had no chance of winning was instead a means to promote the cause of independence. He writes: “My bid for the Speakership was done understanding that it would be unlikely to be successful as a representative of the third party. Part of my motivation for standing was to highlight the absurdity of some of the mechanics and procedures of the House of Commons. I could then contrast it with what is happening in Scotland, and use it to detail why Scotland should play no further part in Westminster.” - Pete Wishart rules out bid to stand as Commons Speaker, The National (2017)

First to announce was Eleanor Laing, one of Campbell’s deputy speakers. Laing had a relatively low public profile, but was well liked amongst MPs across the political spectrum, known for her quietly hard working manner. Laing wanted to chart a middle ground between the activism of Campbell and the silent Speakers of yore, she ran on a platform of making the Commons less belligerent and increasing women’s representation in the House of Commons, promising to lower the House’s “testosterone levels”.

A proud feminist, if Laing won she would be only the second woman Speaker

Laing faced competition from Rosie Winterton, Campbell’s Deputy Speaker from the Labour Party. Winterton was relatively new to the impartial Speaker, having had a long and storied political career before becoming Deputy Speaker, including running for Leader of the Labour Party and serving as Defence Secretary under Ed Balls. Like Laing, Winterton promised to chart a middle way between the House’s activists and traditionalists, drawing on her wealth of connections and years of experience.

“Rosie Winterton has launched a surprise bid to succeed Ming Campbell as Commons Speaker. The Labour stalwart, who has been a deputy Speaker since 2015, made the announcement in an email to MPs on Friday morning. She enters a crowded field to replace Mr Campbell, who has announced that he will stand down in May. In her email, the Yorkshire MP said: "Parliament has been through a turbulent period and the role of Speaker has been under enormous scrutiny. Speaker Campbell's period in office has been historic in many ways, and not without controversy. I can be a stabilising, unifying Speaker. I would balance the rights of the Executive to carry out its mandate, with the rights of parliamentarians to hold the government to account. The former Defence Secretary, pledged to "ensure that those who work in Parliament and our constituency offices have a safe place of work. I want our staff to be free from bullying, harassment and threatening behaviour".” - Labour stalwart Rosie Winterton launches bid to be Commons Speaker, Kevin Schofield, Politics Home (2017)

Charles Walker also made a pitch for the Speakership, an ally of Campbell and a committed reformist, Walker was popular across the House, promising to continue Campbell’s legacy as an activist and reforming speaker. Walker was known as a powerful orator, gaining a standing ovation across the House from his speech on bullying. As chairman of the procedure committee, Walker knew the Parliamentary rules inside out and could call upon a number of friends from all wings of the party to support his Speakership crusade.

Despite being a Conservative, Charles Walker was well liked by Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs

For Parliament’s traditionalists, their standard bearer became Welsh MP Chris Bryant. Bryant was a lover of Parliamentary protocol and a “critical friend” to Speaker Campbell. He said he’d like to instil a more civil atmosphere in the chamber, and open up the Speaker’s House for more events, including for MPs and their partners. Bryant was the bookies’ favourite. Bryant received the backing of a large chunk of Tory and UKIP MPs, eager to return the House to the good old days.

For those who thought Bryant was too timid there was Edward Leigh, a committed Eurosceptic, Leigh ran the most conservative campaign of the lot, he pledged to be “a traditional speaker who does not speak much”. He said he would seek to encourage “serious debate” by not imposing time limits of less than five minutes on MPs’ speeches in the chamber. But his support for Britain's exit from the EU did not endear him to most MPs, he quickly became known as "Farage's candidate".

Finally on the other side of the coin there Meg Hillier, the most radical of the reformist candidates, As chair of the public accounts committee, Hillier published hard-hitting reports on student loan sales and Universal Credit. Hillier based her campaign around confronting bullying with the Parliamentary estate, especially towards young MPs staffers. As well as the backing of several women MPs, Hillier gained the endorsement of UNITE’s parliamentary staffer branch.

The election was reluctantly presided over by Dennis Skinner, the Father of the House. Whilst he had originally refused to take the title, a talking to by his allies in the Socialist Caucus eventually convinced him to take on the role. As Skinner read the results, few were surprised, Bryant had been the front-runner for the longest time, gathering passionate support around the house, The reformists had been crushed, neither Walker nor Hillier were able to gather much support outside their friends, whilst Bryant had reached out to all parties. He was now vindicated as Speaker of the House.

“I want to make sure that every single MP, their families and their staff are safe in their constituency offices and in their homes. I want to make the timing of the parliamentary day more predictable and I will sort out the wi-fi and the mobile signal. Let me end with three Speakers from the past. The first is Betty Boothroyd, who, when she stood for Speaker, said: “I say to you, elect me for what I am and not for what I was born.” I was taught as a child to judge somebody according to the strength of their character and whether they could do the job well. I hope you will all judge me in exactly the same way today. The second speaker is Speaker Onslow who, in the 18th century, was the first speaker to say that he would “be respectful and impartial to all.” That will be my motto. Most famously of all, the Speaker you all know, I guess, is Speaker Lenthall, who told Charles I: "I have neither eyes to see, nor tongue to speak, in this place, but as the House is pleased to direct me, whose servant I am”. That is all I ask: the chance to serve.” - Chris Bryant’s Speakership speech (2017)

Critically assess Ming Campbell’s tenure as Speaker of the House (30 Marks) - A Level Politics Exam (30 Marks)

 

[powerab]

I want to make the timing of the parliamentary day more predictable and I will sort out the wi-fi and the mobile signal.

Author's note: Speaking as a former Parliamentary Staffer, the wifi and phone signal is actually atrocious

 

[powerab]

The Conservative Party now had two women at the helm, Parliamentary Leader Amber Rudd and Senate Leader Theresa May

“The choice at #E2017: a coalition of chaos creating uncertainty and risk - or strong, stable leadership with Amber Rudd” - Conservative Party Twitter (2017)

The incumbent coalition was not looking forward to the 2017 Parliamentary election, the last two years had been a shambles. After the traffic light coalition lost control of the Senate in 2015, they relied on a cross party alliance of seven different parties for a majority of one. The Government was wracked by rebellions and resignations, essentially stalling for the last two years. Polls showed the public was fed up of the chaos at the top and wanted a strong Government. Both major parties seized on this, promising to bring order to Westminster if only they were given a solid caucus of seats.

2017 was also notable as it was the first election in British history to guarantee a woman Prime Minister. As Balls’ long shadow departed from the political stage, all three of the traditional parties were led by a woman, with Amber Rudd running the Tories, Emily Thornberry heading Labour and Jo Swinson at the top of the Lib Dems. In that sense progress was here. Despite the disputes internally within both major parties, Thornberry and Rudd were talented politicians and the collective punditry was looking forward to the two going head to head in the battle for the Commonwealth.

Earlier polling showed the Conservative with a respectable, if not insurmountable lead. During the months since she was elected leader, Rudd had put a lot of political capital into reforming and reuniting the Tories. As former Chair of Parliament’s Energy Committee, she made a big deal of her green credentials, promising to match the Government’s spending on green energy. At the same time Rudd tried to reach rightwards to scoop up disaffected UKIP voters, promising strict regulation on non-European migration, and restrictions on unemployed European migrants. Her policy platform was described by “The Last Leg”’s Adam Hills as “hug a husky, twat a migrant”.

“Amber Rudd has confirmed that the Conservative's 2011 pledge to cut net migration to the tens of thousands will be in her party’s manifesto. “We do want to bring net migration down to sustainable levels. That is the tens of thousands,” the MP told journalists at an event in Harrow to launch the campaigns of Conservative candidates in London. The comments triggered a response from the One Nation Caucus that claimed it was unlikely the target would ever be reached. “Keeping the net migration target is a mistake. Controlling migration should not be centred on an arbitrary, indiscriminate and unrealistic figure. We should introduce realistic ways of controlling migration,” said Ryan Shorthouse, a spokesperson for the moderate One Nation caucus, which has the support of 80 Tory MPs. Senior party sources have told the Guardian that sticking to the policy was about perception. They want voters to see the party working towards the goal even if it is thought to be difficult to achieve.” - Conservatives to retain 'tens of thousands' immigration pledge, Anushka Asthana, The Guardian (2017)

Rudd's hard-line stance on immigration was criticised by migrant's rights charities

The thrust of Rudd’s policy plan was to suffocate the smaller parties, heavily targeting both UKIP and Liberal Democrat voters warning of “three more years of chaos” if the rainbow coalition was returned to office. CCHQ especially smelled blood in regards to UKIP. UKIP had been plunged into civil war after Senator Douglas Carswell had been expelled from the party, Their leader, William Legge was seen by many as weak and ineffective and polls showed UKIP voters returning home to the Tories in their droves.

On the Labour side Thornberry was a powerful orator and strong media performer, her put downs in Parliament and stump speeches often stretched far and wide on social media, thanks to the help of groups like “For the People” an umbrella progressive movement set up by allies of Clive Lewis. Thornberry was noticeably more radical than Balls, promising a “radical revolution of values” in Government. Thornberry promised an end to austerity and a human-rights based foreign policy. But Thornberry starkly divided opinion, whilst she generally had a net positive approval rating she was also the third most abused politician in the country, behind Labour Senator Diane Abbott and SNP Senator Joanna Cherry, negative campaigning against Labour and Thornberry personal would become increasingly dark as the campaign went on. Thornberry’s campaign would also be thrown into turmoil as several women Labour activists came forward to say they had been assaulted by senior Labour figures.

Scottish Labour Regional Senator was the most high profile politician to state she had been a victim of assault

“Labour's Emily Thornberry has said she is “ashamed of what’s been going on” in her party and said the processes must change. Asked about the case of a Labour activist who said she was raped at a party event, Ms Thornberry said: “I am ashamed of what’s been going on and I want us to do something about it. “I want stuff happening in my party. To make sure here is a process there, and people are supported and not told, "Keep your head down, dear, don’t say anything". This is why we are now going to have an independent body. “It seems to me that we should be looking at the victims of this and we should be making sure that our party responds.” The leadership is under fire after claims that the party was aware of the sexual misconduct of Kelvin Hopkins, the party's candidate for Anglian Premier in 2014. Ms Thornberry said: “We owe a debt of gratitude to those who have come forward and who have been brave in the way that they have.” But she refused to be drawn in to discussions over Mr Hopkins, who is currently under investigation by the party.” - Emily Thornberry: 'I'm ashamed of what's been going on' in Labour, Tom Peck, The Independent (2017)

Whilst the #metoo scandal wasn't Thornberry's fault, she had to clean up the party

For UKIP, the campaign would go from disaster to disaster. At the Conservative’s campaign launch in Medway, Kent, Rudd unveiled a brand new member of her Senate caucus, Mark Reckless, who announced he would be following Douglas Carswell in leaving the party, except he would be endorsing Rudd for Prime Minister and defecting to the Tories. Rudd welcomed a "hard-working and dedicated" Senator, saying it showed her party as the only opposition to Labour. South East Senator Damian Green said allowing Reckless into the group was "not a particularly bright idea". With regard to how the Tories should work with Reckless, he said: "I would be very, very cautious about how they deal with him." In his speech, Reckless said he had been "impressed by the performance and discipline of Amber Rudd and the Conservative party". He said Rudd's leadership had been "exemplary" and that she had been "steadfast in her position to deliver a referendum on the EU. Rudd said Reckless had "proven himself to be a hard-working and dedicated Senator who has been an effective representative". Reckless told BBC South East he knew there was still "bad blood" from the time he quit the Tories to join UKIP. "It's not for me to waltz back into the party with any sense of entitlement," he said. "I want to focus my efforts here with some humility."

Such a high profile endorsement at the start of the campaign was a slap in the face to UKIP. Both William Legge and Diane James were struggling to hold the party together, with various factions pulling in all different directions. Rudd boasted that she was in talks with “dozens” of UKIP figures over defections. The bad blood in the party continued to appear in the open, with UKIP MPs and Senators taking public shots at each other. This all culminated in a Portcullis House punch-up as Senators Steven Woolfe and Mike Hookem engaged in a fist fight, with Woolfe ending up in hospital. UKIP was a party in disarray and Rudd was happily uniting the right behind her.

“The Tories have made huge inroads in Labour's Northern heartlands following the collapse of Ukip's support, a new poll has found. The latest survey on which way people are likely to vote shows that the Tories are now more popular in every region of the UK than they were in 2014. Meanwhile, Labour support has fallen in every region apart from the South West and South East where the party has always done poorly. The data, collected by YouGov, also makes grim reading for Ukip with support having slipped by seven points to 13 points. Support for the Liberal Democrats is up across the board, although the only major increase in popularity is in London. The poll numbers will be welcomed by the Tories as Amber Rudd pursues a landslide victory. But they will likely be cause for grave concern at Labour Party headquarters.” - Poll shows surge in Tory support in Labour heartlands as Ukip voters shift to the Conservatives, Jack Maidment, The Telegraph (2017)

Confident Tories were eyeing up regional Parliaments up and down the country

“How far do you agree with the following statement? - “Amber Rudd led an effective campaign in 2017” (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam (2019)

 

[Analytical Engine]

S T R O N G A N D S T A B L E

 

[powerab]

Anglia had been ruled by a Conservative/Labour grand coalition, under the leadership of Premier Eric Pickles and First Minister Mark Prisk. In the Senate the Conservatives were led by David Gauke, the region's Finance Minister, a moderate, Gauke was a strong supporter of the grand coalition, and got on well with his Labour opposite number. Gauke ran as a steady hand against the growing power of UKIP, pointing to cuts he made to income tax and Anglia's healthy economy.

His main rival was UKIP leader Michael Heaver, a 25 year old ally of Farage, alongside UKIP Anglia's Parliamentary Leader Tim Aker he was one of Farage's young proteges. Heaver had risen to power after Anglian UKIP saw a catastrophic split, with several MAPs joining the UK First and Christian Parties. Heaver ran on a platform of further aid for military veterans and expanding grammar schools across the region. Young and well-spoken, Heaver was a suprisingly effective leader of the opposition, netting his party a 10% swing.

Labour was led by Gavin Shuker, the coalition's justice minister. From the moderate wing of the party he had a strong relationship with Gauke. However Shuker struggled to bring the Anglian Labour Party forward, outraged by the coalition, many of its supporters were abandoning the party for UKIP. Shuker's hard-line views on abortion also lost him the support of younger students in the big cities, this culminated in Labour losing two seats.

As for the minor parties, neither the Greens or Lib Dems managed to take advantage of Labour's woes. The English Democrats held steady on 4% of the vote, whilst UKIP's various offshoots such as UK First and the Christian Party fell below the 4% threshold, as did the BNP.

"Former YI chair and UKIP Anglia's Senate Leader Michael Heaver, 25, maintains that the party is well placed to attract young voters. ‘We’re a generation that’s grown up under New Labour, with a big state and big government and a huge welfare bill. Debt’s been going up our entire lives.’ Heaver joined UKIP when he was 17, attracted by the party’s pro-grammar school policy. Heaver both describes himself as liberal on social issues, as many of UKIP's young members do. Education also emerges as a key area of interest. For Jack Duffin it’s imperative that grammar schools and technical colleges become part of British life once again. He says we need, "to get over the fact that everyone isn’t the same; you don’t actually need to go to university". Sanya-Jeet Thandi, described as future leadership material, also claims to be as focused on education issues. The child of Punjabi-born parents, she supports the party’s immigration policy and is critical of bias in favour of EU immigration." - UKIP's youth club rising stars, Andrew Gimson, Evening Standard (2015)

 

[powerab]

UKIP was plunged into yet another crisis after former leader Paul Nuttall claimed he had be present at the Hillsborough disaster

“UKIP MP Paul Nuttall, has denounced what he calls a “smear campaign” questioning his connection to the Hillsborough tragedy. Nuttall, UKIP's "Shadow Education Secretary" refused to answer questions from reporters asking him to prove he had been at Hillsborough. But he was supported by the party’s leader William Legge, who said he’d known since 2004 that Nuttall had been present at the 1989 football disaster. He blamed the Labour party for insinuations that Nuttall was not at the fateful match. Nuttall said he had endured a tough week, having been forced to admit that claims he had lost close friends at Hillsborough were not true. A press officer took the blame but Nuttall would not accept her resignation. He said: “I take the blame for the fact that I failed to check what had been put up on my website. That is my fault and I apologise. But I do not apologise for what is a coordinated, cruel and almost evil smear campaign that has been directed at me.”” - Paul Nuttall tells Ukip Hillsborough claims are 'cruel smear campaign', Helen Pidd, The Guardian (2017)

Things would go from bad to worse for UKIP as it’s Education Spokesperson, Paul Nuttall was caught up in controversy around Hillsborough. Two Ukip North West regional legislators resigned in protest at the “crass insensitivity” of Nuttall’s claims about Hillsborough. The two resigned from the party after the Nuttall's admitted that assertions about losing friends in the disaster were false. Victims’ families reacted with dismay to Nuttall’s admission. Margaret Aspinall, the chair of the Hillsborough Family Support Group, described it as “appalling”. Adam Heatherington AM, 41, a former IT lecturer questioned UKIP's ability to lead after the controversy and issued an apology. "I have been affected by words that were not said in our name. With this in mind, I wish to apologise to the people of Liverpool and the Hillsborough families for any offence caused. I have done the only honourable thing I could do, which was to resign and disassociate myself from Ukip,” he said. “I felt that supporting a libertarian party was the right thing to do to effect change within the political system in this country. Unfortunately that dream has been shattered and the potential of Ukip has been squandered.”

Legge. Farage's chosen leader, was failing badly

The Nuttall issue cratered any momentum UKIP had going in the north, polling showing UKIP voters returning to Labour by the hundreds. North West Premier Andy Burnham called on Nuttall to be expelled from the party and on an official visit to Liverpool, William Legge was chased out of town by jeering protesters. In the last three years since UKIP had become a major force in British politics, it had failed to prove itself as a serious party, with divisions gaffes and resignations plaguing the party, its polling began to dive bomb, and predictions of purple rain began to look more and more fanciful.

Meanwhile Labour seized on the opportunity to show itself as the anti-UKIP. After a barnstorming speech by Andy Burnham went viral, Emily Thornberry made a trip to Liverpool, where she promised to be a bulwark against facism. In an hour-long speech without notes, Thronberry made a passionate case for progressive politics and against the reactionary politics of UKIP. She warned an Amber Rudd Government would “hand the keys of power to disgusting fascists like Paul Nuttall”. Thornberry’s speech received back to back coverage, it was compared to the “Philadelphia Moment” of Barack Obama’s campaign. Labour was back in the race.

“In the context of this election's polling, YouGov's latest for the Sunday Times was an earthquake. At 41-32 to the Tories it was the first poll of the campaign to show a lead of less than 10 points. But don't be moved by it. There's the usual caveats, but more to the point, this is a 9-point lead less than three weeks before an election. You don't blow these. The same basic facts that applied at the beginning of the campaign apply now: UKIP's vote has collapsed and gone to the Tories. Rudd's personal rating is above the Tories vote share while Thornberry's is below Labour's share. Labour is relying on younger voters who are less likely to turn out. Finally, Labour's vote is softer than the Tories' (i.e. they are more likely – by their own admission – to change their minds). Stories swirl that Labour's private polling and on-the-ground operations put the party on as little as 200 seats. In other words, it remains extremely safe to say that the general election will return a Conservative government. A election defeat ought to prompt deep thinking for Labour on what it's for and who it represents.” - Labour's poll bounce is too little too late, Peter McLeod, Politics.cw

Labour saw a last minute bounce, but would it be enough to overturn the Tory lead?

After her powerful speeches, Thornberry dramatically cut Rudd’s commanding lead in approval ratings among voters. The narrowing of Rudd’s lead suggested her decision to focus her campaign almost on her leadership was backfiring. More than a third of voters (40%) said their opinion of Rudd was more negative than at the start of the campaign, against 22% who said it was more positive. The opposite was true of the Labour leader, with 36% saying they have a more positive view of Thornberry compared with 17% who had a more negative view. In the middle of April, the Rudd had a massive 56-point lead over Thornberry in net approval ratings. Now that had been cut to 22 points, a still significant advantage but diminishing at a rate that alarmed Tory strategists. The Tory lead stood at 10 points, a drop of three since the start of the campaign. In mid-January, Opinium put the Tories 13 points ahead of Labour. Now the Conservatives were on ) while Labour was up at 32%. The latest signs of a Thornberry bounce came amid evidence of internal Tory disquiet at the conduct of the campaign.

“Amber Rudd is facing a backlash from Conservative MPs and after indicating she plans to ditch the “triple lock” state pension. Tory MPs fear their party risks a “bashing” from older voters if the Prime Minister presses ahead with axing the flagship pledge. There is also disquiet that the handling of the row has been a “car crash”, after Rudd struggled under questioning at a special episode of Question Time. Meanwhile, the National Pensioners Convention warned that the triple lock would be a “litmus test for the grey vote” on election day. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have pledged to keep the guarantee that state pensions will rise in line with inflation. “Any party that says it is getting rid of the triple lock, well, that will play badly. It is a litmus test for the grey vote,” said Jan Shortt, the National Pensioners Convention general secretary told The Independent.” - Amber Rudd faces Tory backlash after indicating plan to ditch ‘triple lock’ pension guarantee, Rob Merrick, The Independent (2017)

Senior Tory officials warned Rudd was running an "arrogant" campaign

As Labour’s became to rise in the polls again, the biggest losers were the Greens, Amelia Womack’s party had hoped to chart out a progressive niche away from the declining Labour Party, but Thornberry’s shift to the left had left them out in the cold. Womack herself was beset with gaffes. In a long form interview with BBC bull dog Andrew Neil, Womack was savaged over her policies. Amelia Womack was quizzed on BBC Two’s Daily Politics after she called Amber Rudd an “extremist”. But the TV host turned her words against her and questioned the intentions of her party. He blasted: “You use the word ‘extreme’ but let’s look at the position of the Conservatives in some things at the moment. “It is in favour of continued participation in Nato, it’s in favour of free trade and it wants to manage migration but not stop migration. Your party is against Nato, against defence spending, in favour of no controls on immigration and now against free trade. I wonder who the extreme party is? I would suggest it’s you. I’m saying to you that, your party’s policies on a range of areas from being against globalisation, against defence spending – that’s extreme.”

Whilst Andrew Neil was a famously difficult interviewer, Womack's appearance in front him was a disaster, short form clips of the interview were posted across right wing social media sites. UKIP and Conservative politicians warned of the radical young Green leader allowing uncontrolled immigration and scrapping the army. Whilst most of it was exaggerated at best and unsubstantiated at worst the attacks stuck. Polling increasingly showed voters were voting against either Legge and UKIP or Womack and the Greens, rather than actively for one of the big parties. As the people of Britain settled in for another long election night, the overwhelming prediction was that the minor parties would get crushed between the two big beasts of British politics.

“Let’s cut to the chase. The outcome of the 2017 general election is not in doubt. The Conservatives will win, Labour will be crushed. Perhaps, in numerical terms, not by quite the margin it deserves. Besides, Labour’s result will draw comparisons with Michael Foot’s disastrous campaign in 1983. And when the dust settles, the party will face a choice. For this election is all about choice – not by voters, but by parties. The Labour Party will have to make the most fundamental choice of all: between extinction and survival. It is unlikely that Emily Thornberry will resign immediately. She will face pressure from Ed Miliband, the unions and hard Leftists to hang on. That way, Miliband's “legacy” can be protected, the succession to the leadership of another trade union puppet can be assured. The party can march on, confident of proud and defiant defeat at the hands of the hated Conservatives. If that happens, Labour as a moderate, centre-left social democratic force will have died. A new vehicle will need to be sought by those who believe such a choice should be available to voters.” - Crushing defeat would be a chance for Labour to return to electability, Tom Harris, The Telegraph (2017)

Labour's moderates waited in the wings in case Thornberry fell

“To what extent was the 2017 election a two-party election (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam (2019)

 

[SandroPertini98]

the Rudd had a massive 56-point lead over Corbyn

Great update! I’m ecstatic as the Islington Mayor can scare the Tories even not running

 

[powerab]

Great update! I’m ecstatic as the Islington Mayor can scare the Tories even not running

Good catch, 2017 + Tory lead = equalled my brain going on autopilot mode and leading to a freaky clash of parallel universes

 

[powerab]

(Big Ben Chimes)

CONSERVATIVES WIN

FORECAST CONSERVATIVES LARGEST PARTY IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS WITH 249 SEATS.

DD - And what we're saying is the Conservatives are the largest party. 249 seats for Amber Rudd's party, that's up 61. Labour on 224, that's up 18. The Liberal Democrats on 72, up 5. Catastrophic for UKIP on 26 seats, down 80. The Greens on 23, down 19 and all other parties on 56. A very tight election, neither traditional blocks with a majority, the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition is 5 seats away from a majority and the traffic light coalition is 7 seats away from a majority. Laura Kuenssberg, what do you make of this?

LK - Of course this is just an exit poll but it's nail-bitingly tight. A few more seats for the Tories and they'll be likely to form the next Government, a few less seats and the Traffic Light Coalition could remain in place. Disappointing for the Conservatives, just a few weeks ago Amber Rudd seemed almost unbeatable, but the collapse of their natural coalition partner UKIP and Labour's last minute surge have put her plans in jeopardy.

DD - Of course both parties went into this election promising an end to the wheeling and dealing that has dominated the last few years. 2am votes where one rogue Senator can shoot down months of work, that doesn't seem to have happened. No party has a solid block of seats that could bring stability to our fractured Commonwealth, it looks like backbench MPs can continue to cause trouble

LK - No but it wouldn't take a massive margin of error to push the Tories over the line, if they win 20-30 more seats than this exit poll says then it would be almost impossible to form a Government without Amber Rudd at the head. A slightly stronger Tory party, working with the Lib Dems could grant a solidish majority. Or the alternative; if the traffic light coalition does manage to hang on, the Lib Dems and Greens would wield significant power. It would be very difficult for a Prime Minister Thornberry to assert herself in that situation.

DD - An absolute disaster for UKIP, from those giddy heights of 2014 with over 100 seats, crashing down to less than the Lib Dems. There was a time when pundits predicted UKIP would supplant one of the major parties as the official opposition. It looks like that dream might be very much dead, there's almost certainly going to be a lot of unemployed UKIP MPs leaving Westminster.

LK - Yes, UKIP has had a very difficult campaign. They've suffered from the high-profile expulsion of Douglas Carswell, the defection of Mark Reckless and of course that punch up in the Senate. Since UKIP became a real political force in 2014 they never really decided what they were. Were they a patriotic social democratic party like Patrick O'Flynn wanted? A radical libertarian faction like Douglas Carswell desired? Or an identitarian anti-Islam party like Malcolm Pearson? William Legge of course struggled to hold the party together and the electorate has punished them for that.

DD - It looks like their demise has been a double-edged sword for the Tories. On one hand I'm sure many of those 60 pick ups Amber Rudd has received have been from UKIP voters, but it's also robbed the party of their natural coalition partner and a buffer against a Labour Government. Like in the 2000s the Tories appear to be isolated in Parliament, they may be the largest party but the Greens wont work with them, the SNP won't work with them and the Liberal Democrats are very hesitant to work with them. If Amber Rudd is to enter Downing Street she doesn't just need to win, she needs to win big.

LK - Labour's Parliamentary allies have declined as well, the Greens have lost almost half their caucus. Labour was very deft at attributing a lot of the blame for recent year's deadlock on intransigent Green MPs and Senators. The Greens have been a very badly behaved coalition partner, we've seen Shahrar Ali and Amelia Womack storm out the cabinet and the Green Left Caucus vote down Chuka Umunna's budget and it seems the electorate is punishing them for that.

DD - Reward and punishment, that's what elections are all about. Thank you Laura. In the studio with us now is the Tory First Minister of the South East, David Lidington. First Minister is this what you were hoping for, 250 seats, or are you disappointed?...

 

[Rillium]

View attachment 596918
(Big Ben Chimes)

CONSERVATIVES WIN

FORECAST CONSERVATIVES LARGEST PARTY IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS WITH 249 SEATS.

DD - And what we're saying is the Conservatives are the largest party. 249 seats for Amber Rudd's party, that's up 61. Labour on 224, that's up 18. The Liberal Democrats on 72, up 5. Catastrophic for UKIP on 26 seats, down 80. The Greens on 23, down 19 and all other parties on 56. A very tight election, neither traditional blocks with a majority, the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition is 5 seats away from a majority and the traffic light coalition is 7 seats away from a majority. Laura Kuenssberg, what do you make of this

LK - Of course this is just an exit poll but it's nail-bitingly tight a few more seats for the Tories and they'll be likely to form the next Government, a few less seats and the Traffic Light Coalition could remain in place. Disappointing for the Conservatives, just a few weeks ago Amber Rudd seemed almost beatable, but the collapse of their natural coalition partner UKIP and Labour's last minute surge have put her plans in jeopardy.

DD - Of course both parties went into this election promising an end to the wheeling and dealing that has dominated the last few years. 2am votes where one rogue Senator can shoot down months of work. That doesn't seem to have happened no party winning a solid block of seats that could bring stability to our fractured Commonwealth it looks like backbench MPs can continue to cause trouble

LK - No but it wouldn't take a massive margin of error to push the Tories over the line, if they win 20-30 more seats than this exit poll says then it would be almost impossible to form a Government without Amber Rudd at the head. A slightly strong Tory party, working with the Lib Dems could grant a solidish majority. Or the alternative; if the traffic light coalition does manage to hang on, the Lib Dems and Greens would wield significant power. It would be very difficult for a Prime Minister Thornberry to assert herself in that situation.

DD - An absolute disaster for UKIP, from those giddy heights of 2014 with over 100 seats, crashing down to less than the Lib Dems. There was a time when pundits predicted UKIP would supplant one of the major parties as the official opposition. It looks like that dream might be very much dead, there's almost certainly going to be a lot of unemployed UKIP MPs leaving Westminster.

LK - Yes, UKIP has had a very difficult campaign. They've suffered from the high-profile expulsion of Douglas Carswell, the defection of Mark Reckless and of course that punch up in the Senate. Since UKIP became a real political force in 2014 they never really decided what they were. Were they a patritoic social democratic party like Patrick O'Flynn wanted? A radical libertarian faction like Douglas Carswell desired? Or an identitarian anti-islam party like Malcolm Pearson? William Legge of course struggled to hold the party together and the electorate has punished them for that.

DD - It looks like their demise has been a double-edged sword for the Tories. On one hand I'm sure many of those 60 pick ups Amber Rudd has received have been from UKIP voters, but it's also robbed the party of their natural coalition partner and a buffer against a Labour Government. Like in the 2000s the Tories appear to be isolated in Parliament, they may be the largest party but the Greens wont work with them, the SNP won't work with them and the Liberal Democrats are very hesitant to work with them. If Amber Rudd is to enter Downing Street she doesn't just need to win, she needs to win big.

LK - Labour's Parliamentary allies have declined as well, the Greens have lost almost half their caucus. Labour was very deft at attributing a lot of the blame for recent year's deadlock on intransigent Green MPs and Senators. The Greens have been a very badly behaved coalition partner, we've seen Shahrar Ali and Amelia Womack storm out the cabinet and the Green Left Caucus vote down Chuka Umunna's budget and it seems the electorate is punishing them for that.

DD - Reward and punishment, that's what elections are all about. Thank you Laura. In the studio with us now is the Tory Senator for the South East David Lidington. Senator Lidington is this what you were hoping for, 250 seats, or are you disappointed?...

Interesting. I reckon we’ll see a Conservative-led coalition but Labour could also defy expectation. UKIP have literally collapsed if this exit poll is right. Looking forward to the full results!

 

[Analytical Engine]

I don't know that the Tories could manage a minority government. At least, not for very long, and probably not without some kind of deal with the Lib Dems.

 

[Kven]

Conservative/Labour coalition government, just because that would be wacky.

 

[SandroPertini98]

Rudd sounds a lot like Theresa May in 2017: she started as the new Maggie and ends in an almost defeat. Maybe she can follow May’s steps and negotiated a supply government with some minor Northern Irish Unionist parties, the LibDems or the UKIP lite faction, depending by her lead and numbers. Thornberry is in a strange position: she could lose but is up in seats numbers, maybe her coalition can find a path to power but it falls likely on minor regionalist parties and that it’s not great, at least for voters.

 

[powerab]

DD - I'm terribly sorry Senator but I'm afraid we'll have to leave it there as I'm hearing reports the count in Anglia is ready to declare. Senator Dawn Butler, thank you very much and take care. Peter Kilner our election analyst, you have the raw figures; what news should we expect from the East?

PK - Well David of course Anglia is a Conservative stronghold, Eric Pickles is the Premier there and the Conservatives had won this region in every election for the last 15 years. Of course in recent times UKIP has become the main challenger in Anglia, in 2014 Douglas Carswell came with a 3 point swing of becoming Britain's first UKIP Premier and UKIP does form the official opposition in the Anglian Parliament. So if UKIP want to hold and surpass that 4% threshold on in some of their weaker areas like London or Scotland they will need to do very well here. We expect UKIP to decline quiet sharply and the main beneficiaries should be the Tories; but we also expect Labour to make some gains as well.

DD - Does the exit poll indicate a certain number of votes we should look out for?

PK - Yes so if our exit poll is right we expect the Tories to get around 1.9 million votes, or around 50%. A little more than that; and it's likely Amber Rudd will become our next Prime Minister, a little less and a whole can of worms opens up and we're looking at another three years of rickety coalitions.

DD - 1.9 million, mark your cards everyone, now I hear they're ready for us in Anglia so I'll take you to Norwich to hear the results.

GJ - I am ready to announce the results for the 2017 Parliamentary Election in the Anglian region. I Gavin Jones, acting Chief Counting Officer for the Anglia Region, hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each Electoral List for the Anglia Constituency is as follows: Conservative Party, 1,772,631. Labour Party, 1,060,674. Liberal Democrats, 435,895. UK Independence Party, 163,462, Green Party of England and Wales, 152,564... As such the distribution of seats is as follows, Conservative Party 29, Labour Party 17, Liberal Democrats 7, UK Independence Party 3, and the Green Party of England and Wales 2. Thank you.

DD - So that's the Conservatives up six seats, Labour up four, the Liberal Democrats gaining a single seat, UKIP down, nine, that's not good for them, and finally the Greens halved to two seats.

PK - Absolutely devastating result for UKIP there, down nine seats. 75% of UKIP MPs in Anglia will be updating their Linkedin. Carswell's very public expulsion has clearly hit them hard, he was a very popular figure in Anglia. Some fairly senior UKIP figures who thought they were safe high up the electoral list will be disappointed. Mick McGough, UKIP Deputy Chief Whip, is among those who have lost their seats. The Tories have done well, picking up 6 seats, but they haven't quiet reached the commanding heights CCHQ had hoped for. So it does appear our exit poll was fairly spot on but has slightly overestimated the Tories, it's going to be a long night David.

DD - Yes, pop the kettle on at home, if you were hoping for a blow-out result and then bed you were unfortunately mistaken. We're settling in for the long-haul here at the BBC. But whilst I'm nice and snug in our warm BBC studio, Nick Eardley, our Scottish Corespondent is out in the bracing cold. Camped outside Jo Swinson's house in Milngavie, Dunbartonshire. Good evening Nick, how's the Scottish weather treating you?

NE - Hello David, yes very funny. I am outside Jo Swinson's house we expect her back any minute. If the exit poll is right, and that is a big *if* this will be considered a fairly good night for the Liberal Democrats, after nearly a decade in Government they've managed to hold together and expand their bloc in Parliament. Expectations were so low for Jo Swinson that just holding on is a victory. The age old adage, that the smaller coalition party always get smashed, hasn't happened here...

 

[SandroPertini98]

Yep, it sounds more and more like OTL Tories being totally confident to take working class UKIP voters after the referendum “settled” the Europe question only to see a strongly leftwing Labour making them return to the their original leftist spot en masse (at least in 2017).

 

[powerab]

“Amber Rudd has signalled the Conservatives will seek to push for power after insisting the party can provide stability. The Conservative Leader said the full picture has yet to emerge although it appears as if the Tories will win the most seats and most votes. Amid predictions the Tories may struggle to form a coalition, Rudd said: "Now more than anything else, this country needs a period of stability. Indications have shown that the Conservative Party has won the most seats and the most votes. It is incumbent on us to ensure we have that period of stability. That is exactly what we will do." With 650 MPs in Parliament, 326 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the House of Commons. But in practice, a working majority is likely to need just over 320 MPs, as the Speaker does not vote and Sinn Fein has so far declined to take up its seats. Depending on the number of Tory MPs, Ms Rudd might be able to pass this crucial figure with the support of UKIP. If not, she might need to look further afield to possible arrangements with other parties like the Liberal Democrats.” - What happens next after the 2017 election result?, Barney Henderson, The Telegraph (2017)

Both parties had gone into the 2017 election promising to shake off the shackles of the smaller parties, the last 2015 years had been a chaotic mess, with different alliances being formed on a bill by bill basis. Whilst the British public were united in wanted an end to the chaos, they were divided on who they wanted to lead it. Amber Rudd had overseen a relatively strong night. In terms of raw seat numbers she had netted the Conservatives their best result since 1992, by far their best result in the history of the Commonwealth. But it wasn’t the great push forward party grandees had hoped for, in order to persuade the Lib Dems to switch sides, Rudd would need a giant mandate, one she didn’t have, and with UKIP in the gutter the Tories were alone.

Labour too had a mixed night. Thornberry had hoped to form a Government without the irritation of the SNP or Greens, in this sense she had failed. She also lost Labour the symbolically significant role of largest party for the first time since 2008. On the other hand she had increased Labour’s vote share, especially in London and the larger North West cities and, all importantly, she had denied Amber Rudd a clear victory. With no overwhelming victory it fell to the smaller parties to crown a Queen, and Thornberry was confident the Lib Dems would meekly fall in line.

Jo Swinson privately favoured Thornberry, but was keeping her options open

The Liberal Democrats had a very divided night, in some regions, such as Anglian, London and Scotland; they main moderate gains, in some regions, like the South West; they made significant losses. Their old rural strongholds like Cornwall had abandoned them for the Tories, whilst some wealthy southern towns and city suburbs had voted Liberal Democrat for the first time. On balance though the election could be considered a success, they managed to hold steady, unlike the Greens. The Liberal Democrats found themselves once again the largest third party, and the kingmakers.

For UKIP the election was an unmitigated disaster. Spats that they had struggled to contain spilled out into the public and the various factions went into open civil war. Legge’s resignation was demanded, and the Carswellites pushed for reforms to UKIP’s national committee to break the power of Farage, who became the main target of abuse. Disgruntled Faragites began to talk of UKIP as damaged goods, and in the quiet, talk of making for the exit began to circulate. Unless UKIP could pull itself back together, the party was not long for this world.

“In the face of Ukip's support disintegrating, Nigel Farage says he could return to lead the party. One of the big stories of last night's election was the disintegration of Ukip's support. With William Legge at the helm the party went from 5 million votes in 2014 to just one million of this in three years. Many say this signals the death of Ukip. Nick Ferrari asked Mr Farage, 'what's the future for Ukip?' The MP said;." In the light of the Conservatives losing, former Senator David Davis, said resentment around Europe would continue to grow. If what David Davis said comes to pass, then Ukip becomes more relevant in British politics than it's ever been," Mr Farage thinks. "If we do not leave the single market and get back control of our borders, there will be a huge potential audience out there for Ukip or something like it." He acknowledges his old party has its share of problems, but he doesn't blame its poor showing on William Legge, its current leader. "I wouldn't lay any blame on William whatsoever," he said. Regardless, Ukip has clearly lost a lot of its appeal.” - Nigel Farage Says Ukip Could Become “More Relevant Than Ever”, LBC (2017)

Polls had shown voters saw Legge as "out of touch" and a "toff"

The Greens too had a bad night, with Labour’s move to the left and Womack’s gaffes on the campaign trail had led to the party losing nearly half it’s MPs. Whilst the Lib Dems had managed to come to terms with being a junior party of Government, the Greens were hopelessly divided between it’s liberal governing wing and it’s radical activist wing. Womack had tried to bridge the divide but failed, and the party faced another crisis going into coalition negotiations. The Greens also faced a crisis of leadership, with Natalie Bennett retiring, Caroline Lucas returning to the backbenches and Shahrar Ali damaged goods, the Greens needed a fresh face to bring the party forward.

Once again the dance of coalitions began, and once again Tory MPs had to go on air and pretend they were able to form a Government. Amber Rudd was savaged on social media for declaring herself as Prime Minister-designate and demanding Balls vacated Downing Street. Like in 2014 and 2011 before them, the Tories just didn’t have the numbers to form a Government, even with the Lib Dems they were dozens of seats away from a majority, reliant on UKIP or the DUP to push them over the line. The Liberal Democrats were in no mood to play games, the Conservative had to spend another cycle in opposition.

Across the entire history of the Commonwealth, the Conservatives had only held Downing Street for three years

“Speaking to ITV Ms Swinson said: "It's a complete boomerang election for the Conservatives. When they started out in this election campaign they were treating it as something of a coronation and ended up a much tighter fought contest." Asked about a coalition with the Tories she added: "There's few meeting points between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems." A party source urged caution when looking at the projected seats last night, warning many seats already held by the Lib Dems are "on a knife edge". They added that Scotland could yield a couple of extra MPs for the party, as could London. Earlier George Osborne raised the prospect of a Lib Dem coalition. A second Lib Dem source said it could be a possibility but added that Swinson has spoken against such a deal, warning it would put the party in danger. The party saw its standing in the polls fall after it went into coalition with the Conservatives in 2008, losing almost half its MPs.” - ITV News (2017)

Nor were things rosy for team Thornberry. Even though the traffic light coalition had grown in seats, they couldn’t afford to dump the SNP or Greens overboard. Nicola Sturgeon publicly demanded £4 billion for the NHS in Scotland as her price for supporting the Labour government. She also said Thornberry would have to allow a second referendum independence if Sturgeon was re-elected Premier in 2019. Sturgeon reiterated her willingness to strike a 'progressive alliance' after the election to "lock the Tories out". But in an embarrassing moment for Thornberry, Sturgeon said she was 'not a fan' and that if she was asked to choose a Labour leader 'it would not be Emily'. She insisted she was only open to propping her up to block Amber Rudd, who she said would be a 'nightmare for Scotland'.

Sturgeon was the first out of the gate issuing coalition demands as she knew further deals with Labour would be toxic amongst her MPs, and she was eager to show herself as on the front-foot. Several SNP rebels such as Senator Jim Sillars called on Sturgeon to “hang Labour out to dry” unless they acquiesced to another referendum. But Sturgeon was a canny politician, she knew she couldn’t win another referendum now, but a second referendum after two to three years of chaos, that would do nicely. With Sturgeon shooting the starting pistol of negotiations, the great dance began.

“Labour could be expected to explore the potential for cooperation with other "progressive" parties. Labour has said it will seek a coalition, but will govern as a minority government if necessary. And Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson pledged during the election to go into coalition with either the Tories or Labour. But other arrangements short of a coalition could involve a "supply and confidence" agreement. Under this, smaller parties would back the Government without taking up ministerial positions. Or, either the Conservatives or Labour could attempt to govern as a minority administration. This involves seeking to win support in the Commons for their programme on a vote-by-vote basis. The first milestone for Mrs Thornberry would be May 12, when the House of Commons is due to return after the election. But a far more significant deadline is the President's address on May 20. The constitution states that the incumbent is "entitled to wait until Parliament has met to see if it can command confidence.” - Thornberry’s best hope is a continuation of the Traffic Light Plus Coalition, says backers, Financial Times (2017)

Progressive groups like Compass supported the continuation of the TLC.

““The 2017 election changed nothing”, how far do you agree (30 Marks) - A Level Politics Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

• Conservative Party - 249 (+61)
• Labour Party - 238 (+32)
• Liberal Democrats - 63 (-4)
• UK Independence Party - 30 (-76)
• Green Parties - 27 (-15)
• Scottish National Party - 21 (-1)
• Democratic Unionist Party - 6 (+2)
• Sinn Fein - 5 (+2)
• Plaid Cymru - 3 (-)
• Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3 (-)
• Ulster Unionist Party - 3 (-)
• Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 2 (-)

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Bye, bye, UKIP.

 

[Orchard]

Wold certainly be bad for both Labour and the Lib Dems if they defied the will of the people in both legislative bodies. Perhaps the frustration will see a Tory President in 2019? Maybe it’s just karma for the 2003 Senate Election?

I think I remembered you saying about UKIP at the beginning, although i thought it was about the monarchy. Could be wrong.

Also talking of the Monarchy, how’s the Australia referendum?