Campbell announced his retirement plan days before the budget vote
“House of Commons Speaker Sir Ming Campbell has announced he will stand down as Speaker and as an MP at the next general election, due in May 2017. Menzies, or Ming as he is known, said he had written to President Miliband to inform him of his decision. He has served as a Scottish MP since 1987 and was leader of the Parliamentary Lib Dems from 2002-05. Campbell said it had been "an enormous privilege" to serve as Speaker. During his career representing his "wonderful" Scottish constituency, he said: "My wife and I have made many friends. It is always a regret to begin the process of retiring from the House of Commons but now is the time to start." Ed Miliband said Campbell was "a towering presence" in British politics. He added Campbell had "served this country with unparalleled distinction". "As well as being an outstanding Speaker, Menzies is a brilliant orator and someone who commands both attention and affection. Of his many achievements in politics, I suspect he will be most remembered for his passionate and articulate opposition to the war in Iraq." - Menzies Campbell to stand down as Speaker in 2017, BBC News (2016)
After several hours of debate, House of Commons Speaker Ming Campbell rose to announce the results of the budget vote.
"The ayes to the right, 329. The noes to the left, 311. The ayes have it, the ayes have it. Unlock!"
The budget passed through the Commons with a decent majority
The Commons was the easy part, the coalition still had a majority in the Commons even without the help of their confidence and supply partners in the SNP and Plaid. In total seven Labour MPs, two Lib Dems, one Green and one SNP had voted against the Government. Umunna's appeal to national unity and the greater good fell flat on its face, not a single Tory or UKIP MP dared cross the floor to support the Government, now the Government faced it’s greatest challenge, the Senate. As Presiding Officer Nigel Evans rose to announce the results the collective punditry held its breath.
"The ayes to the right, 171. The noes to the left, 180. The noes have it, the noes have it. Unlock!"
For the first time in Commonwealth history a budget had been voted down. Three Labour Senators, one Lib Dem, one Green and one SNP Senator had broken ranks with the coalition to vote against the budget, more than enough to overturn the coalition’s majority of one. The debacle was quickly condemned as an “omni-shambles” by the opposition, Senate Opposition Theresa May delighted in hanging Douglas Alexander out to dry. Polling showed support for the coalition began to plummet. Voices from across the political spectrum called for Umunna’s head, Tory Senator Liz Truss tabled a motion of no-confidence in Chancellor Umunna, which Umunna survived. Despite this, his reputation and image was shattered, alongside his chance of being Prime Minister. Oddschecker had Umunna at a one in four odds of being the next Prime Minister before the budget, after the "omni-shambles" this dropped to one in thirteen.
“When you ask Umunna — as I did, as everyone does — whether he believes it’s his destiny to be a party leader or even prime minister, he always replies a similar way. It never felt possible, growing up, that he could do anything like that; even becoming a member of parliament seemed an outrageous fantasy. It’s a deft way of swerving the question, but it makes a valid point. Back then, there were only four MPs out of 650 in the House of Commons from black or Asian backgrounds, people who, in Umunna’s words, “looked like me”. Labour MPs Paul Boateng, Bernie Grant, Diane Abbott and Keith Vaz were all elected for the first time in 1987. South London was not the gentrifying spot of today. It was the Brixton riots and Del Boy and Rodney with their comical dream of becoming millionaires. “I didn’t have time to do a lot of politicking,” he sighs.” - Is There Any Way Back For Chuka Umunna?, Tim Lewis, Esquire (2016)
Unable to pass a budget, the Commonwealth was now in deadlock. Miliband pledged to pass the budget by “any means necessary” and opened his doors to anyone willing to talk. His salvation came from the most unexpected place, a delegation of 14 UKIP Senators, led by Patrick O’Flynn, met with Miliband, Balls and Umunna. These 14 Senators made up the “Social Democratic” caucus of UKIP, dubbed “redkip” in the press, these were UKIP Senators, mostly from Labour areas in the North of England and Midlands, who had grown increasingly disenchanted with the Libertarian streak of UKIP. They had three demands, firstly a turnover tax for foreign companies, secondly a freeze to local government cuts in the most deprived parts of the North, finally, and most controversially a “migrant worker clause” that would legally mandate Commonwealth companies to fill vacancies with British workers, only being able to advertise abroad if they could prove the vacancy could not be filled by a British worker. If these amendments were added they would support the budget.
The UKIP rebels acted independently, moving without the blessing of Farage or central leadership
Umunna and Balls both wanted to seize the opportunity, the fourteen UKIP rebels would easily allow the budget to pass the Senate, not only this but it would publicly split UKIP, perhaps permanently if James chose to withdraw the whip. More than this it would show Labour was listening to the concerns of Labour/UKIP swing voters in the North, two birds with one stone. Miliband was more hesitant, teaming up with UKIP rebels would not be a good look for the party and would enrage the Greens. On a personal level Miliband distrusted UKIP and was a supporter of free movement. Despite his hesitations, Miliband had very little options. The deal with the devil was finalised and on the budget’s second vote, fourteen UKIP Senators voted with the Government.
"The ayes to the right, 181. The noes to the left, 171. The ayes have it, the ayes have it. Unlock!"
“The narrative that local government has been able to absorb cuts without detriment to services has been widely repeated. The reality is that despite the efforts of local government the poorest places and the poorest people are being the hardest hit. Those least able to cope with service withdrawal bearing the brunt of service reduction. The analysis demonstrates that cuts at the scale and pace This report finds a marked shift to reductions in front-line services. Local authorities in England lost 20 percent of their spending power between 2009/10 and 2014/15 in real terms. Some services, such as planning and ‘supporting people’ have seen cumulative cuts to the order of 40 per cent. People are beginning to notice the impact of the cuts. An increasing proportion of households are finding services inadequate. Local government is working under intense pressure to develop long-term sustainable responses. There is a clear appetite to deliver more effective as well as more efficient services.” - The cost of the cuts, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2016)
UKIP was keen to hold onto it's support in deprived areas of the North
One Labour rebel, Grahame Morris, returned to the fold, meanwhile four more coalition Senators crossed the floor to vote against the budget, outraged at the deal with UKIP, bringing the total number of rebels up to ten. Despite this, fourteen UKIP Senators were more than enough to get the coalition over the line, the budget had passed, the Government lived to fight another day. UKIP’s leadership was furious at the public spat, all fourteen Senators faced disciplinary action. Farage wanted them expelled entirely, but cooler heads like Steven Woolfe and Paul Nuttall convinced James not to withdraw the whip, worried the rebels would form a new political party. The UKIP civil war, so long in the background, was now officially out in the open.
However the coalition wasn’t out of the woods yet, enraged by the budget deal, young Green Environment Secretary Amelia Womack resigned from the Cabinet, to be replaced by the moderate Jonathan Bartley. Womack was praised by Green Senator and fellow Eco-Socialist David Williams as a "woman of principle". Williams said Womack had taken the job because she "believed in environmental justice". Labour-supporting Journalist and pundit Clive Lewis said that Womack had been "as important a Environment Secretary as I can think of". "It is concerning that a woman of the standing of Amelia Womack should be pushed into this position," he added. Opposition parties welcomed Womack's resignation and called for Umunna to resign as well. George Osborne said: "The resignation of Amelia Womack reveals a government in disarray. The Chancellor has failed the British people. He should follow the honourable course taken by Amelia Womack and resign."
Eager to control the narrative, both Labour and Conservative spin doctors began to make the story of the budget one of third party chaos. Looking towards the 2017 Parliamentary Elections, both major parties argued that the country needed to unite behind the major parties to curb the power of the third parties. The idea of a “chaotic Senate” would frequently appear in both party’s political broadcasts. Stability became the name of the game as the Commonwealth grew increasingly deadlocked.
“Without a majority after 2015, party discipline frayed. The coalition government became vulnerable to pressure from its different factions, as well as from the SNP. Balls has been a stubborn leader. Ed Balls is a cautious, pragmatic politician, who will not want to be remembered for breaking up his party. But it is becoming very hard to see how the present Labour party can be reunited again as a broad centre‐left party. Its different factions cannot agree on what form of country they want. However the deadlock is resolved, a divided party seems inevitable once Balls departs. Some Labour columnists have already begun calling for primary challenges. The hard left wing feels that time is on their side, left-wing politicians have been slowly climbing up the electoral lists in internal primaries. This alongside Miliband's growing influence points to the fact that the next leadership election, when it comes, will deliver a more left wing leader.” - The Realignment of British Politics, Lecture by Andrew Gamble, University of Sheffield (2016)
Third parties would be hit hardest by the deadlock at Westminster
To what extent was the 2016 “omni-shambles” budget caused by “out of control third parties demanding the earth”? (30 Marks) - 2019 A Level Politics Exam