Clark is out, Clark is gone
The end is near, Osborne is alone
UKIP is coming, the party is torn
The new rightwing major party is just born

Anonymous comment on Daily Mail online comments page probably
 
Closer Look, 2014 Welsh Premier Election
Alun Michael was one of the great survivors of Commonwealth politics, having served as Premier since the Commonwealth's foundation in 1999, one of only three Labour Premiers to survive the 2009 wipe-out. Alongside former First Minister Rhodri Morgan, Michael was seen as one of the "fathers" of the Welsh nation, overseeing a Labour, Plaid and Liberal coalition. He remained popular amongst the Welsh people and easily won re-election in the third round, making him the longest serving Premier in Commonwealth history. His First Minister Owen Smith was also returned in the Welsh Parliament in a coalition with Plaid Cymru.

UKIP also had a great victory, passing the Tories and Plaid to become Wales' main opposition party. It's candidate, Nathan Gill was young dynamic and relatively scandal free. UKIP had been surging in Wales, bolstered by the collapse of the BNP and Welsh Tories, this coupled with the national swing allowed Gill to pick up over 400,000 votes.

For the Conservatives the election was a disaster, they selected their Welsh Parliament leader David Jones as their candidate, Jones was divisive figure in the Welsh Tories, strongly on the right of the party he had controversial views on everything from LGBT rights to wind farms. This infighting coupled with UKIP's "purple wave" pushed the party into fourth place in the first round, behind Plaid Cymru, it was only thanks to the second preferences of Williams voters that Jones was able to take third place.

For Plaid the elections were disappointing, its nominee, Leanne Wood, came from the left of the party and hoped to differentiate from the Blairite politics of Michael and the reactionary politics of Gill and Jones. However Wood struggled to criticised the Michael Government, having served as a minister under him. Whilst the result wasn't a disaster like Jones' campaign she failed to gain the party any more group.

The Lib Dems nominated Mark Williams, like many Lib Dems coalition both locally and nationally harmed his campaign, he wasn't a particularly well known politician and struggled with Michael dominating the progressive and urban vote. Thus he came last.

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"Nathan Gill, UKIP's Premier candidate in Wales, claims there is a "media witch-hunt" against the party. He has defended Presidential candidate Nigel Farage's comments about Romanian immigrants. Politicians have criticised Mr Farage for saying he thought people would be concerned if a group of Romanians moved in next door. Nathan Gill said the party is "not against immigration from any group whatsoever" but believes people should be "vetted". Mr Farage said he regretted his form of words but said there was a "real problem" of Romanian criminality. During the Presidential debate Farage was asked what the difference was between having Romanians and Germans as neighbours. "You know what the difference is," Mr Farage replied. He added: "I was asked if a group of Romanian men moved in next to you, would you be concerned? And if you lived in London, I think you would be." Labour nominee Ed Miliband said the comments were a "racial slur", while Nick Clegg said the remarks had no place in modern Britain." - UKIP criticism is 'media witch-hunt,' Nathan Gill says, BBC Wales (2014)
 
I'm sorry, I've been slacking with my reading of the updates, but how's the union doing? I imagine that the greater level of devolution has sort of chilled a lot of fervent nationalists, although the pattern seems to be that when the greater government gives an inch, they scream for a mile.
 
I'm sorry, I've been slacking with my reading of the updates, but how's the union doing? I imagine that the greater level of devolution has sort of chilled a lot of fervent nationalists, although the pattern seems to be that when the greater government gives an inch, they scream for a mile.

Scotland: The Union is mixed, the SNP are currently surging due to Sturgeon's popularity and distrust of Westminster parties. But their breakthrough came a lot later than OTL. The SNP now has a confidence and supply agreement with the Traffic Light coalition so that has obviously strained the union. However OTL "soft nats" tend to be more supportive of the Union as they basically have devo-max, so the SNP can't do the "vote for us to give Scotland more powers" line. As of November 2014, the polling average has 44% of Scots in favour of Independence

Wales: The Union is strong, Plaid is currently in Government in Wales but hasn't grown beyond its 15% of dedicated supporters in Welsh speaking areas. As of November 2014 only 17% of Welsh people support Independence

Northern Ireland: Sinn Fein holds the Premiership and requested a border poll in the early 2010s, however this was vetoed by the Northern Irish Secretary. Whilst polling isn't conducted regularly enough to form an average, a 2013 IPSOS Mori poll had just 20% of Northern Irish people supporting Irish unity.

England: The English Democrats have gained representation on some regional Parliaments, calling for a unified English Parliament, however they have a negligible impact on national politics. Some regional English parties like Yorkshire First and Merbyn Kernow have come close to breaking into their local Parliament, but none so far have managed.
 
Any movement in favor of further Cornish devolution (of any consequence of course).

Mebyon Kernow campaign for Cornish devolution, they have 10 seats on Cornwall County Council but they have failed to break into either the South West or National Parliament.
 
All really interesting. Has Boris Johnson been spotted recently, and if so, doing what?

Johnson was elected London Premier in the 2009 Tory wave, however seeing the writing on the wall, he opted not to seek a second term. He hoped to secure a cabinet post in an Osborne Government. Since this never came to pass many expect him to seek a Senate seat in 2015. He is often sited as a possible replacement for the outgoing Ken Clarke as the Tories lead Senate Candidate.
 
2014 Senate Conservative Leadership Election
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With Clarke's departure he worried his moderate politics would depart with him

"Ken Clarke's resignation as Tory Senate Leader has been announced. The Conservative Senator has been leader since 2011, and before that he was European Commissioner between 2004 and 2009. Mr Clarke is reported to have said being part of the 2008 coalition government had brought out his "inner liberal". His many critics on the Conservative right might argue it was never very well hidden in the first place. Pro-European in an Eurosceptic party, an opponent of "banging up" criminals and an outspoken critic of the Iraq war, he has often seemed a man apart. With a blunt-speaking, "blokeish" style, he has always enjoyed popularity among the public. But his troubles with fellow Tories meant Mr Clarke never fulfilled his ultimate ambition to be President. He ran and failed to become Tory leader in 1997, and failed to become President in 1999 and 2004. Yet, despite being one of the most rebellious Conservatives in the Commons, he came back. With power again on the radar, Clarke was elected Tory Senate Leader in 2011. It is in this role that the Cambridge-educated former barrister attracted controversy."
- Profile: Ken Clarke, BBC News (2014)

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Clarke had been Britain's man in Brussels for five years

With Clarke’s departure, the Tories’ hundred strong Senate caucus had to select it’s new leader. Many were eager not to repeat the mistakes of the past, Clarke had been sold to them as the most electable candidate and the candidate who got on best with Osborne, with the Tories firmly in opposition and Osborne a dead man walking, the Senate Tories were in no mood to compromise. With UKIP providing a tempting escape route and Osborne’s authority in tatters many feared the election would lead to an irretrievable split. The aim of the game became to avoid a civil war; by any means necessary.

The search for a mythical “unity candidate” began. Names floated included Senators Micheal Fallon or Premier Patrick McLoughlin, however most Tory donors had one name in mind, former South East Premier Theresa May. May was experienced, having run the Commonwealth’s largest region, better than that as she hadn’t spent the last decade in the Senate she had very few enemies within the party. The icing on the cake for some politicians was that Osborne absolutely despised her, a winning combination. May announced her candidacy, quickly gaining steam with several major endorsements including David Davis and, most importantly, former President Howard.

As May stormed ahead amongst both moderates and radicals, some in the British Freedom Caucus began to suspect the reigns were being stolen from them. Whilst her views on immigration were harshly Conservative, May hadn’t come out in favour of leaving the European Union, a red line for many in the BFC. They began to recruit their own candidate. Old hand Ian Duncan Smith was approached first but he couldn’t be coaxed out of retirement. Barnett Mayor Theresa Villiers was also asked but ruled herself out. Eventually the caucus reluctantly settled on Chris Grayling, the former Home Secretary and gaffe prone Senator for the South East.

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Grayling was known for his "tough on crime" policies whilst Home Secretary

“Chris Grayling’s “disastrous” privatisation of probation damaged services that are meant to keep the public safe. The Home Affairs Committee said the 2010 scheme, introduced by then Home Secretary Chris Grayling failed to reduce re-offending. MPs said that under Mr Grayling’s leadership, the Home Office pushed through reforms at “breakneck speed”. This was despite warnings that the payment structure for companies being handed probation work would not work. The report said that as the 2011 election approached, the government failed to pilot the changes. “It is unacceptable that so many unnecessary risks were taken with taxpayers’ money,” MPs concluded. Inexcusably, probation services have been left in a worse position than they were in before the ministry embarked on its reforms.” Margaret Curran, chair of the Joint Home Affairs Committee, said warnings had been sounded for years. “The ministry’s attempts to address the failures in the reforms cost the taxpayer an extra £500m."
- Chris Grayling's 'disastrous' probation privatisation worsened supervision of criminals, MPs say, Lizzie Dearden, The Independent (2014)

Clarke had made a great mistake by not grooming a successor and with his power over the party destroyed he had very little capital to elevate one. Being seen as an “Osbornite” was seen as a toxic label. Senior moderates like Premier Philip Hammond and Senators Eric Pickles and Nicky Morgan all refused to run, throwing their weight behind May. Jeremy Hunt, a fairly uninspiring ally of Osborne made a brief bid but withdrew shortly after due to a lack of support. With Grayling supported by less than a dozen of Senators, May’s victory was seemingly inevitable.

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May posses for a photo with Senior Conservative politicians

Grayling’s campaign was a disaster from the start, living up to his reputation, he was publicly mocked when he suggested on Andrew Marr that books should be banned from prisons in order to be “tough on crime”. Grayling’s questionable views on LGBT rights also came to the forefront. Grayling was secretly taped suggesting that bed and breakfasts should "have the right" to turn away homosexual couples. The comments, made by Grayling in 2010 to a leading centre-right think-tank, drew an angry response from gay groups and other parties. In a recording of the meeting of the Centre for Policy Studies, obtained by the Observer, Grayling made clear that B&Bs should be free to turn away guests. "We need to allow people to have their own consciences," he said. "If you look at the case of should a Christian B&B owner have the right to exclude a gay couple from a hotel, that individual should have the right to decide." He drew a distinction, with hotels, which he says should admit gay couples. "If they are running a hotel on the high street, it isn't right that a gay couple should walk into a hotel and be turned away because they are a gay couple. That is where the dividing line comes." Ben Summerskill, chief executive of Stonewall, said the comments were "very alarming to a lot of gay people."

“Grayling was among a group of Senators rebuked by the statistics watchdog for rushing out figures showing 400,000 immigrants were on benefits. Despite being ‘ vulnerable to misinterpretation’, the claims were given to the media. Grayling was recorded saying he supported the right of B&B owners to discriminate against gay and lesbian couples. This drew condemnation from across the political spectrum with calls for his resignation. As ever Grayling attempted to squirm his way out of the scandal. ‘I am sorry if what I said gave the wrong impression, I didn’t intend to offend anyone. I voted for gay rights. If by supporting gay rights he actually meant voting against civil partnerships I suppose he had a point. His championing of gay rights seemed to fall on deaf ears and he was named ‘Bigot of the year’ by Stonewall.” - The Justice Gap, Jon Robbins (2014)

Meanwhile May was quietly pressing flesh and making friends amongst the Tory caucus. For many Tories, even those on the right, they had spent too much time in opposition and didn’t want to risk Grayling’s leadership. His supporters abandoned him in droves. Both Osborne and Clarke reluctantly gave their support to May. Osborne and Howard appeared in public together for the first time since the election to endorse May as Senate Leader. Despite his support abandoning him, Grayling doggedly pushed ahead with his campaign. On a cold December the Senate Tories gathered to elect for conference in Liverpool to see who their new Senate lead candidate would be.

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Through a mix of luck and personal prowess May had come from nowhere to win control of the Senate Tories by a landslide. Grayling was humiliated, winning just six Senators. Theresa May made a direct pitch to UKIP voters in her victory speech. May pledged to clamp down on the rights of asylum seekers. She renewed her commitment to cut net migration to below 200,000 in terms so harsh that she was condemned even by her allies. The Senate Lead Candidate's speech was a challenge to the coalition's liberal migration policy. To many, it sounded cheap and inflammatory. Theresa May pledged to reform the Commonwealth's asylum rules during an uncompromising speech. May pledged she would campaign to reduce the numbers claiming in Britain while taking in the "most vulnerable" refugees. She also said high migration made a "cohesive society" impossible. Her speech was criticised by business groups, with the IoD attacking its "irresponsible rhetoric". Net migration into the Commonwealth currently stood at a record high, reaching 400,000. The Senate Leader told the Conservative Party conference Britain "does not need" net migration at current levels.

“Net migration to Britain has surged by 70,000 in the past year to 400,000, leaving in tatters Ed Ball's promise to reduce the figure by the next election. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) says the increase was accounted for by a rise in European Union nationals coming to Britain. Those coming from the new EU states of Romania and Bulgaria account for only 20,000 of the 70,000 rise. The bulk of the increase from western European countries such as Italy. The rise in the yardstick of net migration is a major embarrassment for Balls, the Prime Minister and Ed Miliband, the President. Labour fought the 2014 election on a pledge to bring net migration down by the time of the next general election. The ONS said the net migration figure was made up of 600,000 coming to live in Britain in the year to March 2014. Balls brought in sweeping new immigration policies to cut the flow, which initially cut the annual figure, but since then it has risen to the new high. The Greens have always made clear the promise was not a coalition policy.”
- Net migration to UK soars by 40% to 400,000, Alan Travis, The Guardian (2014)

“To what extent was May’s immigration policy a political pitch to UKIP voters, rather than a deeply held personal belief? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam (2020)
 
Closer Look, 2014 West Midlands Parliamentary Election
In the West Midlands popular First Minister Sajid Javid had led a Tory/UKIP coalition since 2011. Rare for Tory politicians as a young Muslim, Javid was seen as one of the party's rising stars and had a strong approval rating in the West Midlands, he successfully managed to cannibalise his coalition partners and benefited from the collapse of the BNP, picking up six seats and winning the BlueKip coalition another term.

Labour too had a young Muslim rising star. Mahmood, aged just 32 was one of the countries few Muslim women in a senior political position, an ally of Ed Miliband she quickly rose through the ranks of West Midlands Labour since being elected to the Parliament in 2008. She too was popular and picked up two seats. The West Midlands broke the trend in most of England, with both major parties increasing their represenation.

Mike Nattrass was one of UKIP's grandees, having led West Midlands UKIP since the Commonwealth's foundation in 1999. Nattrass' relationship with UKIP's national leadership had deteriorated during his 15 years in charge, and his caucus was split between his own followers and those who supported Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. This infighting, coupled with Javid's popularity caused the party to decline.

The Liberal Democrats had little impact on the election, they managed to rebuild themselves slightly from their disastrous result in 2011, but they were a long way off from becoming a major political force again. The Greens too had little impact on the election due to Labour surging. The BNP followed the national trend collapsing in the West Midlands, but because many of their major strongholds like Stoke were situated in the West Midlands they managed to cling onto at least some seats.
2014 West Midlands Parliamentary Election.png

"The self-made millionaire is poised to use the Midlands as a springboard to what some believe is Presidential potential. This week the Daily Mail described Javid as "Maggie's Muslim heir". There is speculation that Osborne calculates Javid could be a useful heir in any future leadership contest. During 20 years in banking, Javid became rich. According to unconfirmed reports, he made up to £2m a year through the years of boom and bust and he now owns a £3m home. "Being seen as an investment banker was not the most useful thing on the campaign trail," he said in his maiden speech to the West Midlands Parliament. "But it helped prepare me for a profession not well liked by the general public." Gary Streeter employed him as an adviser when he was 29 and described him as "focused rather than driven" and "ambitious". Hard work and family life make him tick, friends say." - Sajid Javid's Wonderful Life, Robert Booth, The Guardian (2014)
 
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2015, Part 1, Je Suis Charlie
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2015 began with terror attacks and border restrictions

“Security has been increased at Commonwealth ports, following the attack at the Paris office of magazine Charlie Hebdo. There is not thought to be a direct threat to the Commonwealth, Downing Street said. President Ed Miliband said the attack was a "challenge to our security" and "threat to our values". Home Secretary Natalie Bennett, speaking after a meeting of Cobra, said security had been increased at the France border. Commonwealth border staff had "intensified checks on passengers, coming from France", she said. The move was a "precautionary" measure and was not as a result of any specific intelligence, she added. Armed patrols have also been increased at St Pancras International station, the Eurostar terminal in London. An extra officer had also been sent to join the Commonwealth's counter-terror team in Paris. There was no evidence the Paris terrorists had any ties to the Commonwealth, Bennett added. It comes after Miliband offered France "any help our intelligence agencies can give" after the shootings.”
- UK steps up security after Paris attack, BBC News

The issue of terror continued to dominate Commonwealth politics. In France a major manhunt was launched for gunmen who shot dead 11 people at the Paris office of the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. Seven journalists and a policeman were among the dead. Police issued photos of two suspects, describing them as "armed and dangerous". Protests and vigils over the attack, the deadliest the country has seen in decades, were held across France. President Alan Juppe called it a "murder" and declared a day of national mourning. He said the country's tradition of free speech had been attacked and called on all French people to stand together. "Our best weapon is our unity," Juppe said in a televised address. Security was stepped up across France in the wake of the attack, with Paris placed on the highest alert.

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Other major European cities like Brussels were placed on high alert

“The massive unity rally planned for Sunday in Paris will be challenging for officials trying to secure the area. The French Interior Ministry announced that thousands of extra police will be on the streets. French Interior Minister Édouard Philippe said authorities will ensure security at the event. After meeting with French President Francois Juppe, Phillipe called for "extreme vigilance". "The Ministry of the Interior, will take exceptional measures to ensure the safety of the event. President Ed Miliband and Chancellor Frank-Walter Steinmeier, are planning to attend. Around 2,000 police are being deployed, besides to thousands already guarding synagogues and mosques. On Saturday, Juppe met with injured members of the French national police's anti-terrorist unit. In total, 16 people and two gunmen were killed over the three days of attacks that left France reeling. Hundreds of thousands of people marched in cities across the country on Saturday to honour the victims of the attacks. More are expected at Sunday's rally.”
- France steps up security ahead of Sunday's unity rally, Megan Specia, Mashable (2015)

Tackling terrorism was "the national priority", Ed Balls pledged. He committed an extra £90m to monitoring Britons going to Syria and Iraq. The head of MI5, speaking after the Charlie Hebdo attacks, said two recent Commonwealth plots had been stopped. Brothers Cherif and Said Kouachi - key suspects for the attack- were on the Home Office Warnings Index. The Kouachi brothers were killed following an armed stand-off with police at a warehouse in north Paris. In a second incident, anti-terror forces stormed a kosher supermarket in eastern Paris. Jewish community groups called on British police to increase patrols in areas of high Jewish populations. Greater Manchester Police said it had increased patrols in Salford and Bury. This came as Balls told journalists the Commonwealth was facing the threat of a "more complex plot." "So we have got to be vigilant, we have got to have the resources there," he said. "My commitment is very clear. This is the national priority."

Balls and security chiefs conducted a review into the risk of a Paris-style attack in the Commonwealth. They agreed that elements of the Paris attacks would be considered when planning future training exercises. The Commonwealth terror threat level remained unchanged at "severe". Speaking at an event in Manchester, Ed Balls said: "The first duty of any government is to keep our country and our people safe. I will make sure we do not allow terrorists safe space to communicate with each other." UKIP Senator David Kurten said security services needed more powers to get information to stop extremist acts. Tackling extremists would mean working with the Muslim community, Home Secretary Bennett said. She stressed it was an important part of the government's counter-terrorism strategy.

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Bennett had to balance being an incumbent Home Secretary and campaigning for her party's Senate candidates

“Another Green policy is to introduce a wealth tax, which Bennett said would produce £50 billion — funding a quarter to half of the NHS. On the Government's plan to raise the top rate of tax, Bennett didn't know to what level but denied the rich would flee the country. Flying her anti-Ukip flag, Bennett wants to ‘stop the race to the bottom on immigration rhetoric’. She acknowledged her party wants to relax immigration controls in the medium/long term. Bennett also argued that the army needs shrinking, saying the British arms industry is ‘export-focused’ at present. She deflected the questioning by saying ‘a lot of people at the moment think our relationship with Saudi Arabia is a bigger issue’. Bennett agreed that her party would make it legal for people to be a member or sympathiser of a terrorist organisation like al-Qaeda or ISIS. Although it would still be illegal to incite or support violence. Bennett thinks we should ‘not punish people for what they think or what they believe’.”
- Natalie Bennett demonstrates how Green policies don’t add up, Sebastian Payne, the Spectator (2015)

The attacks particularly hurt Labour, polls showed there was an increasing perception amongst the British public that Labour, especially Miliband were weak on terror with 59% of poll respondents disproving of the Government’s reaction to recent terror threats. Labour was increasingly split on how to react to the attacks, Miliband was instinctively liberal, hesitant to support draconian surveillance laws or further powers for the police. Balls on the other hand was worried UKIP or the Conservatives would seize the initiative on terror. Whilst Balls and Miliband clashed backstage, Labour Senator Simon Danczuck called on Miliband to “wake up” in an unprecedented attack on his own President.

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Miliband's honeymoon with the PLP was coming to an end, most of them had backed Umunna or Cooper. Disgruntled MPs began to speak up.

More headaches came for Labour when John Chillcot announced his investigation into the Iraq War would be published after the Senate Elections. Chilcot said individuals who were going to be criticised in the report were “currently being given the opportunity to respond”. In a letter to Ed Miliband he wrote: “That is an essential and confidential process. We intend to finish our work as soon as it is possible to do so whilst being fair to all those involved.” The delay was criticised by many, some accusing Chilcot of delaying the report in order to protect Labour. Former Home Secretary Simon Hughes, an opponent of the war, said “I would like to have seen this report published already and well before the forthcoming election.” Miliband said he respected the independence of the inquiry and it was not for the government to set the timetable. Chilcot was summoned to Westminster to explain the delay to the publication. Senate Defence Committee chair Andrew Robathan, said there was “no justification whatsoever". “It would be worth discussing it with Chilcot in a constructive way,” said Robathan . “There must be a way of devising an inquiry that doesn’t take more than five years to complete.”

Chilcot was another headache Labour didn’t need. Iraq was still a stain on the party and one of it’s most divisive issues, not just within Labour but the coalition as well, due to the fact both the Greens and Lib Dems had opposed it. Whilst Miliband opposed the war many of his senior supporters had been intimately involved with the war and its aftermath, including his Senate President Douglas Alexander, who was seeking re-election in mere months. The delay infuriated the left of the party in the Socialist Caucus. The Socialist Caucus had considered Miliband an ally, backing him during the primaries, but increasingly he was seen as siding with the Blairites. Miliband was managing to annoy both wings of his party, after four years in Government the cracks in Labour were beginning to show.

“Something has happened to Ed Miliband in the past week despite all that's gone wrong. It is as if, in that what-doesn’t-kill-you-makes-you-stronger way, Simon Danczuk's attack and Amelia Womack's accusation that the Labour leader had stabbed young people in the back, has drawn Miliband out of himself. In his first newspaper interview since these twin incidents, Miliband seems unburdened. It must be said, for someone so often criticised for looking awkward, Miliband for the first time seems comfortable in his own skin. The last time I interviewed then candidate Miliband on a train to Bristol last year, he was ambushed by a hen party who were all dressed up as Ed Balls. This time, on the Edinburgh to York train, there are close protection officers in the row of seats behind him. Miliband is cautious. He has come from Scotland, where Labour is in serious trouble. He keeps saying the Senate election is “very tight” – he seems almost relieved that the gloves have come off and Womack has gone for him. Why? “I suppose we always knew it was coming, didn’t we? We always knew this was going to happen.” - Ed Miliband says he'll be as radical as Attlee, Wilson and Blair, Jane Merrick (2015)

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For some Miliband was too radical, for others not radical enough

“Critically asses the Miliband/Balls Government’s record on counter-terrorism (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam (2020)
 
What's happened to Merkel and Macron ITTL?

Merkel did slightly worse in the 2005 German Election so instead Gerhard Schröder led the 2005 grand coalition. Merkel served as Deputy Chancellor but didn't lead the CDU into any subsequent elections.

Macron served as a staffer for former French President Dominique Strauss-Kahn. He tried to seek a seat in the 2012 French Election but failed, he is currently running a financial consultancy firm.
 
Merkel did slightly worse in the 2005 German Election so instead Gerhard Schröder led the 2005 grand coalition. Merkel served as Deputy Chancellor but didn't lead the CDU into any subsequent elections.

Macron served as a staffer for former French President Dominique Strauss-Kahn. He tried to seek a seat in the 2012 French Election but failed, he is currently running a financial consultancy firm.

And what of Berlusconi?
 
Closer Look, 2014 East Midlands Premier Election
Patrick McLoughlin had served as Premier of the East Midlands since 2009, capturing it during the Tory wave year. Despite being an ally of George Osborne, McLoughlin was liked by all wings of his party and was generally seen as quietly competent Premier. The East Midlands was notable as it was one of the few regions where a "grand coalition" of Labour and Tories formed the local Government. The issue of HS2 began a defining part of the election, with McLoughlin a strong supporter of HS2 Despite a tough fight McLoughlin managed to hold onto his Premiership for another term.

Labour was led by Vernon Coaker, a former First Minister and veteran of East Midlands politics. Coaker had caused controversy leading Labour into the grand coalition back in 2008, but it had been surprisingly stable, lasting into a second term. Coaker put a strong fight in but was ultimately unable to dislodge McLoughlin from his position.

UKIP were once again led by Roger Helmer, one of the party's "old guard", having led the East Midland branch of the party Helmer, and his radical views, were well known to voters. Helmer managed to blow what should have been a great chance for UKIP, with both parties in coalition together supporting HS2, some believed UKIP could take second or even first place by capitalising on local opposition to HS2. But Helmer's misogynistic views and frequent gaffes held the party back.

For the Lib Dems the election was a disaster, back in 2009 they had come second, with over 40% in the final round, now they had fallen to just 9%. The Greens, despite Labour's move to the right, failed to make any noticeable impact on the election

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"Over two decades, the cost of HS2 works out at around £1 billion a year – around the same amount we are spending on Crossrail. Crossrail is already demonstrating that we can build major infrastructure on time and on budget. Thanks to David Higgins’ leadership, I am confident the same will be true of HS2. David has made clear that the best way to help him do so is to reduce any remaining uncertainty surrounding the project. That is why I am pleased there was a consensus on all sides of the political spectrum. So to sum up, We have a choice to make. Our economy is growing again. But the world we live in is changing. We could choose gentle, but steady, relative decline. Or we can have the confidence to go for growth. I am an optimist. The East Midlands has the incredible ideas, entrepreneurs and engineers and the world class businesses we need to compete. We want to back you by providing the infrastructure you need. That includes HS2. I look forward to working with you to help that to happen. Thank you for listening." - Patrick McLoughlin speaking to the East Midland's Institute of Directors (2014)
 
Merkel did slightly worse in the 2005 German Election so instead Gerhard Schröder led the 2005 grand coalition. Merkel served as Deputy Chancellor but didn't lead the CDU into any subsequent elections.

Macron served as a staffer for former French President Dominique Strauss-Kahn. He tried to seek a seat in the 2012 French Election but failed, he is currently running a financial consultancy firm.
Berlusconi is currently Italy's Foreign Affairs Minister in the grand coalition led by Angelino Alfano.

I'm loving this TL, so I hate to sound critical but take that as a fan suggestion.

In France the hyper-Presidentialist system of government leads to a sort of "monarchical Presidency": it's common that the "King"-like President choses his heir that then goes to lead his political force. De Gaulle blessed Pompidou, Pompidou had Chirac that was surpassed by D'Estaing when Pompidou suddenly died, D'Estaing lost reelection before selecting an heir, Mitterand was so egocentric to refuse to selected one, Chirac selected Sarkozy cultivating him with numerous ministerial spots, especially Interior one. Originally, during his first term, Sarkozy was not the heir, as he had supported rightwing Éduard Balladur against Chirac in 1995, but was Juppè, who was Prime Minister in late 1990s: unfortunately for him Juppè became widely unpopular due his privatization plans and was sacked after a season of tumultuous strikes and early elections where he was greatly defeated. Then in 2004 Juppè was convinced for some corruption allegations. Juppè made a comeback at last election only to be defeated by Francois Fillon in centeright primaries. I think Sarkozy would be the centeright candidate in 2012 against Strauss-Khan and the consequent winner: without his 2007-2012 Presidency Sarkozy would at least delay his scandals and could be a easy law and order candidate in 2012. Losing the previous election is not a deterrent in French Politics: Chirac himself lost two elections before being elected for two terms, so "Sarkò" could be surely elected five years later.

Reading about Alfano's grand coalition I can imagine centeright led by Berlusconi's Partito fells Libertà (Freedoms Party) narrowly surpassed centerleft in 2013 election (likely due some economic failings), winning the first pick to lead the grand coalition to exclude populist Five Stars Movement from the government (also the electoral law would give an absolute majority to the winner of popular vote in the low chamber, leaving a coalition with the right the only feasible option). But first, the Italian center-left had a long tradition to make unpopular choices "for common good" but to accept to support Berlusconi in a goverment would be too much, the same centeright refuse openly a goverment led by center-left leader Pierluigi Bersani so it's a no way. So a grand coalition is ok, all economic forces and a large majority of newspaper would be in favor, but not with Berlusconi inside. At the same time Berlusconi was convicted for tax evasion in August 2013 and due the Italian law was ineligible for any public role for few years: the same Italian Parliament declared him deprived of his Senate's seat for the same reason few months after. In this scenario Berlusconi could nevertheless negotiated from a strong position his conditions, including a veto power against any laws that could harm his economic interests, and he would find a perfect interlocutor in new center-left leader Matteo Renzi, a Blair-like youngish neoliberal politician who was often accused to be more rightwing then leftwing. Of course a grand coalition led by Berlusconi's party will be a fatal blow to center-left reputation, leaving the Five Stars as only credible alternative and opening the door to an even larger Five Stars victory in next election. By the way, my poor country...
 
I'm loving this TL, so I hate to sound critical but take that as a fan suggestion.

In France the hyper-Presidentialist system of government leads to a sort of "monarchical Presidency": it's common that the "King"-like President choses his heir that then goes to lead his political force. De Gaulle blessed Pompidou, Pompidou had Chirac that was surpassed by D'Estaing when Pompidou suddenly died, D'Estaing lost reelection before selecting an heir, Mitterand was so egocentric to refuse to selected one, Chirac selected Sarkozy cultivating him with numerous ministerial spots, especially Interior one. Originally, during his first term, Sarkozy was not the heir, as he had supported rightwing Éduard Balladur against Chirac in 1995, but was Juppè, who was Prime Minister in late 1990s: unfortunately for him Juppè became widely unpopular due his privatization plans and was sacked after a season of tumultuous strikes and early elections where he was greatly defeated. Then in 2004 Juppè was convinced for some corruption allegations. Juppè made a comeback at last election only to be defeated by Francois Fillon in centeright primaries. I think Sarkozy would be the centeright candidate in 2012 against Strauss-Khan and the consequent winner: without his 2007-2012 Presidency Sarkozy would at least delay his scandals and could be a easy law and order candidate in 2012. Losing the previous election is not a deterrent in French Politics: Chirac himself lost two elections before being elected for two terms, so "Sarkò" could be surely elected five years later.

Reading about Alfano's grand coalition I can imagine centeright led by Berlusconi's Partito fells Libertà (Freedoms Party) narrowly surpassed centerleft in 2013 election (likely due some economic failings), winning the first pick to lead the grand coalition to exclude populist Five Stars Movement from the government (also the electoral law would give an absolute majority to the winner of popular vote in the low chamber, leaving a coalition with the right the only feasible option). But first, the Italian center-left had a long tradition to make unpopular choices "for common good" but to accept to support Berlusconi in a goverment would be too much, the same centeright refuse openly a goverment led by center-left leader Pierluigi Bersani so it's a no way. So a grand coalition is ok, all economic forces and a large majority of newspaper would be in favor, but not with Berlusconi inside. At the same time Berlusconi was convicted for tax evasion in August 2013 and due the Italian law was ineligible for any public role for few years: the same Italian Parliament declared him deprived of his Senate's seat for the same reason few months after. In this scenario Berlusconi could nevertheless negotiated from a strong position his conditions, including a veto power against any laws that could harm his economic interests, and he would find a perfect interlocutor in new center-left leader Matteo Renzi, a Blair-like youngish neoliberal politician who was often accused to be more rightwing then leftwing. Of course a grand coalition led by Berlusconi's party will be a fatal blow to center-left reputation, leaving the Five Stars as only credible alternative and opening the door to an even larger Five Stars victory in next election. By the way, my poor country...

No please I'm happy to hear suggestions, I am by no means an expert in European politics, it's why my references to events outside Britain are done through hints and Easter eggs rather than full on wikiboxes, It's always fascinating to hear from a primary source this is all fair criticism.

On France I wasn't aware the tradition of political comebacks, I assumed a defeated Sarkozy would be gone and since Juppe seemed the presumptive nominee for most of 2012-2017 I put him up as the nominee. Even without all the drama in Europe it'd be very hard for an incumbent to win the 2012 Presidential Elections. However I'd imagine with a defeat in 2007 Les Republicans may have primaries 5 years earlier from OTL, from what I've read Juppe seemed to be more popular amongst ordinary voters than the Les Republicans establishment so I could see him winning an open primary.

On Italy the suggestions are also fair, in this TL they seem to be in a very similar situation to Britain, with both major parties declining and a Eurosceptic force surging through, I imagine they would have been fairly influenced by a Howard Presidency and I can see Howard and Berlusconi getting on, less so now Miliband is in charge. Italy is defiantly definitely one to watch.

Again thank you for your comments, I'm always happy to hear from readers especially those with more first-hand knowledge.
 
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