"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL

[powerab]

London was the only region with a Labour candidate on the ballot that Labour did not win. However this was little solace to the Conservatives as it was left-wing firebrand Ken Livingstone. The Independent minded GLC leader had decided his platform was large enough he didn't need Labour with this new voting system. Livingstone's victory speech was fairly combative disappointing some in Labour who believed he would return to the fold.

He found himself proven right. A highly personal campaign had him winning 48% of the vote in the first round, far beyond what anyone had expected. Livingstone won a clear victory in the 2nd round and set about setting up a Government as the undisputed head of London, with support from Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Labour performed better than expected. Frank Dobson was a reluctant candidate and would have much preferred to keep his position as Secretary of State for Health. Doggedly loyal Dobson answered when the party called and managed to hold Labour's 2nd place.

Conservatives knew they were in for a rough night when the London results came through. Though few expected to win the capital, most in party HQ believed with a split left Duncan-Smith would be the clear runner up. Instead the Conservative right's standard bearer came in third place. His campaign slogan of "Quietly competent" contrasted himself with the flashy publicity seeking Livingstone but it failed to cut through.

The third parties had a night about as well as expected. UKIP decided not to run a candidate and instead endorsed Duncan-Smith's brand of euro-scepticism. The Liberal Democrats had a mildly disappointing night considering its strong showing across the rest of the country. This was attributed to Livingstone's popularity against the relatively unknown Hughes. The Greens selected MEP Jean Lambert, mainly as a mechanism to boost the Green's profile and boost them over the 4% threshold which she did and more netting the Greens 7% of the vote.

"Londoners today have shown they don't need parties telling them what to do. They don't need tubes privatised or spin doctors selling glossy initiatives. What Londoners need is straight talk and real solutions, a cheaper tube, cleaner air, better buses. These are all real things, you don't need a spin doctor, you need an Independent." - Livingstone's victory speech (2000)

 

[powerab]

2003 did not begin well for President Blair. Strained relations between his party and the Liberal Democrats came to a height in February when the UN's Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission reported they had failed to find any weapons of mass destruction. Campbell and Kennedy gave an ultimatum. Pull back from war or face the collapse of the coalition.

“They seek to manage, not lead; to manipulate, not tell it as it is. I didn't used to believe that all power corrupts. That was until I came face to face with this President. We, the several million here tonight demand our President be honest and listen to his people. But I fear he will not. We have lost a Queen and gained a Tyrant!” - Charles Kennedy Speaking at the Iraq War March (2003)

Deputy Prime Minister Menzies Campbell and Chancellor Charles Kennedy in a Meeting of Liberal Democrat Leaders debating the end of the coalition.

Blair was not prepared to back down. On the 14th of February the coalition collapsed. Unlike Afghanistan it could not be salvaged. Charles Kennedy found himself going from 11 Downing Street to the stage in Hyde Park in a matter of hours. Cynics thought the timing was very convenient. Allowing the Lib Dems to arrive as the last minute saviours to the nearly two million people marching against the war. Chalres Kennedy’s speech was very cutting. “Tony the Tyrant” was splashed across front pages of anti-war newspapers like the Independent.

Hyde Park had a strange mix of characters. Figures from the Labour Left such as North West First Minister Micheal Meacher, Hillingdon Mayor John McDonnell and the West Midlands Premier Clare Short. Other minor party figures such as Green Regional Senator Caroline Lucas took to the streets. But two figures stood at the centre of the media’s attention. Former Chancellor Kennedy and Premier Ken Livingstone. Both great speakers and highly popular they decried the march to war. However as he railed against the Government Ken Livingstone had quietly registered as a Labour supporter.

John McDonnell, the "Red Mayor" of Hillingdon, on the Iraq War March

“The next time a large bomb explodes in a western city, or an Arab or Muslim regime topples and is replaced by extremists, the Government must consider the extent to which the policy contributed to it. That is why Senators should pause and ask why. As is our job. It is our role to cool and check the passions of the Commons. We have had 48 hours to consider this resolution. We cannot do our job properly in 48 hours. We must push this motion back and the Government must reconsider.” - Senator Ken Clarke Speaking on the Floor of the Senate (2003)

Senator Ken Clarke Speaking on the Floor of the Senate

At the same time Blair was establishing his new minority Government, appointing Ministers to replace departed Lib Dems and anti-war politicians such as Robin Cook. He spent the rest of early 2003 at the UN trying to push through a resolution to support the war. Twice the US and the UK tabled anti-Iraq resolutions. Each time they were opposed by France, Russia and Germany. Eventually the pair gave up and Bush unilaterally gave Saddam Hussein 48 hours to leave Iraq, or face war. Parliament gave approval for the Iraq War on the 18th March. With a 350 to 216 in favour. The senate also gave its approval to the war two days later. In late March the invasion began.

The War was over fairly quickly. Blair had sent nearly 50,000 soldiers to Iraq. Around a third of the Commonwealth’s total military force. Young men from all nations and regions left home to travel to Iraq. Some never return. As Commander in Chief Blair took a personal interest in the day to day fighting. Receiving daily briefings in Buckingham from top military officers. By early April Baghdad had fallen and the search for weapons of mass destruction had begun. “Tony the Tyrant” was riding high. As he looked forward to his comfortable re-election.

"Baghdad has fallen. The war is over. But the battle continues. Coalition forces may well face a difficult and dangerous period of flushing out Iraqi forces, particularly the various groups of irregulars, thugs and fanatics who hang on to the coattails of the regime.” - Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon announcing the fall of Baghdad (2003)

Tony Blair meeting US General David Petraeus in Buckingham weeks before the war

Iraq War Vote in Parliament
AYE (350)
Labour - 174
Conservative - 150
UK Independence Party - 16
Ulster Unionist Party - 4
Democratic Unionist Party - 4
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 1
UK Unionist Party - 1

NAY (216)
Liberal Democrats - 135
Labour - 58
Scottish National Party - 12
Plaid Cymru - 5
Scottish Socialist Party - 3
Conservative - 2
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 1

ABSTAIN (83)
Labour - 47
Conservative - 18
UK Independence Party - 8
Sinn Fein - 4
Liberal Democrats - 3
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3

Commonwealth Cabinet (2003-) (Labour Minority)
President - Tony Blair
Vice President - John Prescott
Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
Senate Leader and Justice Secretary - Margaret Beckett
Foreign Secretary - Derry Irvine
Chancellor of the Exchequer - John Reid
Home Secretary - Gareth Williams
Defence Secretary - Geoff Hoon
Health Secretary - Tessa Jowell
Business Secretary - Paul Murphy
President of the Board of Trade - Hilary Armstrong
Work and Pensions Secretary - Peter Goldsmith
Education Secretary - Peter Hain
Environment Secretary- Ian McCartney
Housing Secretary - Valerie Amos
Transport Secretary - Charlie Falconer
Northern Ireland Secretary - Hilary Benn
Scotland Secretary - Douglas Alexander
Wales Secretary - Ivor Richard
Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Secretary - Alan Johnson
International Development Secretary - Ruth Kelly

“The Lib Dem decision to leave the Coalition in early 2003 was cynical political ploy rather than a principled anti-war stance”, discuss (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

Chancellor Reid angrily confronting a photographer, one of many gaffs during the election

Whilst the build up to war was happening in the back of everyone’s minds was still the 2003 senate election. This would be the first electoral test of the public’s support for the war in Iraq and the new Labour minority Government. With a relatively inconsequential 2002 election all eyes were on the senate.

“I think it's past time I entered the real world rather then spending any longer in our champagne guzzling bubble." - Conservative Senate Leader Micheal Ancram Announcing his Resignation

Margaret Beckett stood down as Labour’s Senate Leader to focus on her work as the Justice Secretary. She was replaced by Blair loyalist and Iraq war advocate Chancellor John Reid. Labour believing its only option was the double down on the war. Labour was hoping to minimise losses and for a repeat of the 2002 election. Running on the slogan “Britain is doing well.” often followed by “don’t the Tories ruin it.”

The Liberal Democrats had surged in the opinion polls since their resignation and their eyes on the official opposition. As such they selected David Laws, from the “modernisers” faction of the Liberal Democrats. The aim being to appeal to Tory shire voters and smaller towns who may have been put off by the more radical Kennedy. The Lib Dems specifically ran as anti traditional politics with the slogan “No slogans, just facts.” Contrasting themselves with the spin friendly Labour.

The Tories had also lost their leader. Michael Ancram had stepped down to spend more time “in the real world.” Many saw this as code for “planning a Presidential run.” Seeing the threat from the Liberal Democrats the Tories selected moderate reformer Oliver Letwin. They aimed to highlight the disarray of the Government and run a “libertarian” platform attacking Blair’s perceived abuses of power. The party even co-opted the anti-war protesters “not in my name” slogan. This caused much outrage in the anti-war community for a pro-war party to adopt their slogan.

Third parties also saw opportunity. UKIP ran to appeal to right wing voters disaffected with the pro-European Letwin. The Greens also saw an opportunity for a national breakthrough. Greens had seen success in every nation and region. They had been at the forefront of the anti-war protests and were the only national party to have fully opposed both Afghanistan and Iraq.

Labour - 136 (-28)
Liberal Democrats - 79 (+23)
Conservatives - 76 (-10)
UK Independence Party - 18 (+6)
Green Party - 10 (+10)
Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (+3)
Sinn Fein - 7 (-)
Scottish National Party - 6 (-)
Ulster Unionist Party - 6 (-1)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 6 (-1)
Plaid Cymru - 4 (-)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 2 (-)
Scottish Socialist Party - 1 (-1)

“Today London has shown they want a party with good ideas, who will represent the climate in Westminster. Through hard work during the campaign we have inspired people to vote for us. We won’t London down.” - Senator Sian Berry’s victory speech at the London count

The results were a slap in Labours face. Whilst Labour was still by far the largest party it had lost 30 seats. With the Liberal Democrats refusing to talk Labour had very few options. All the other left wing parties like the SNP and the Greens were strongly anti-war and were unwilling to support the Government. By comparison the Liberal Democrats found their anti-war stance vindicated. Taking 2nd place and increasing their Senate seats by a third. A great boost to the right wing faction of the Lib Dems.

The Tories had their fourth consecutive election of decline falling to third place. Losing votes to the Lib Dems and the Greens Third parties had a strong night. UKIP increased its senators by 50% and the Greens had their first national breakthrough breaking 4% in several regions with Sian Berry leading a cohort of ten Green Senators..

Green Lead Senate Candidate Sian Berry on the Campaign Trail

Work then began on Government formation. The Senate found itself in several weeks of stalemate with none of the three major parties able to form a working majority to elect a Senate Leader. Eventually Oliver Letwin announced the Tories would support David Laws to become the Senate Leader. With the combined fault of the Lib Dems and Tories, alongside abstention by smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens led to David Laws becoming the leader of the Senate.

“I don’t agree with Senator Laws on most things but I know he will stand up to an overarching Labour state. I cannot become Senate Leader. So we have two men in front of us. Senator Laws or another Labour yes-man. Conservative Senators will hold Laws to account just as we held Beckett to account but for now we must support the lesser of two evils. That’s why we will be voting for Senator Laws.” - Conservative Senate Leader Oliver Letwin

Letwin announcing his support for David Laws

Oliver Letwins decision to support David Laws as Senate Leader in 2003 did more good than harm to the Conservative’s revival, discuss (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[Analytical Engine]

BTW, the DUP seat gain is wonky.

EDIT: Also, how many Senate seats did Plaid Cymru win? If these are arranged by nation and region, surely they should get at least some.

 

[powerab]

BTW, the DUP seat gain is wonky.

EDIT: Also, how many Senate seats did Plaid Cymru win? If these are arranged by nation and region, surely they should get at least some.

Plaid maintained its four seats, I'll update the main post with a full breakdown. Each region gets 30 senate seats and Plaid got roughly 15% of the vote in Wales

 

[Analytical Engine]

Plaid maintained its four seats, I'll update the main post with a full breakdown. Each region gets 15 senate seats and Plaid got roughly 25% of the vote in Wales

Thanks.

 

[powerab]

Wales had been a Labour stronghold since long before the Commonwealth. This election was no exception. Although Labour lost senators in line with the national swing it was still miles ahead in Wales. With as many Senators are all the other parties combined. The Liberal Democrats had a strong night adding two extra senators National Farmers Union official Mick Bates and Welsh Parliament member Eleanor Burnham. The Conservatives had a disappointing night not gaining any senators but it wasn't as bad as other parts of the country as the Conservatives held onto all their seats and even gained votes. This trend against the national swing was attributed to Letwin's heavy campaigning in the Celtic nations, Wales' opposition to the Euro and UKIP's weakness in Wales.

Third parties also had a disappointing night, 27 year old Jonathan Edwards began Plaid's leader in the Senate but a lack of profile meant he failed to cut through. UKIP's sole Welsh Senator David Rowlands avoided the fate of his Parliamentary colleagues and managed to hold onto his seat with a reduced majority. Unlike elsewhere the Greens failed to jump the 4% hurdle and their candidate, Molly Scott Cato was not elected.

"The rural parts of our nation will no longer be ignored. Wales isn't just Cardiff its a beautiful diverse nation and today it has made Tony Blair sit up and listen!" - Newly elected Senator Mick Bates' victory speech

 

[powerab]

2003, Part 3, A Spark

Ken Livingstone announces his candidacy in the same place he'd marched months earlier (2003)

“I have not recognised my party for a long time.Its why I stood for Premier as an Independent. Over the last five years we have proven that you can have a progressive Government without privatisation or getting cosy with big business. But it’s something more than that. I marched with two million people against the imperialist wars of Bush and Blair. I have never seen anything like that in my political life. On the back of that movement we can win the Presidency and win a new Britain. That’s why I’m running for President.” - Ken Livingstone’s announcement speech at a Hyde Park rally (2003)

Many within Labour felt they had lost their party. These people watched Blair pass over left-leaning MPs for Liberal Democrats and watched the Socialist Campaign Group shrink further and further, with members either moving to regional politics or retiring all together. Even the great standard bearer Tony Benn had stood down at the 2002 election. For the Labour left it seemed hopeless. Until Livingstone announced his candidacy and Blair’s safe re-election bid was blown wide open.

Blair’s campaign was focused around damage limitation. Early in the campaign the hope was if they ignored him Livingstone would go away. Blair was “getting on with governing.” However as Livingstone’s rallies grew (as well as his poll numbers) Blair could not longer ignore it. Blair appointed new arrival John McTernan as his campaign director and his left-wing Vice President John Presscot as the campaigns chair. Blair campaigned emphasised Livingstone’s more radical leanings and the dangers of a Tory Presidency. Very few expected Livingstone to win, the goal was to avoid him getting enough votes to embarrass the Government.

Blair's team discuss the primary campaign. (2003)

Ken Livingstone appointed veteran Labour office Simon Fletcher as his chief of staff and he even managed to court Tony Benn as his campaign chair. Livingstone launched a blitz of speeches and rallies across the country. Video of thousands of people turning out to rallies in Birmingham, Leicester and Tower Hamlets. Livingstone’s main target were larger cities with big student and ethnic minority populations. However Livingstone struggled in rural working class Labour areas and among the Labour elites with only a few dozen MPs endorsing Livingstone and he only gained the endorsement of one other Premier, West Midlands Premier Clare Short.

Whilst this was happening there was a 3rd man lurking in the shadows. Tony Blair’s relationship with his Prime Minister Gordon Brown over the course of six years in Government. With Brown believing Blair should stand down rather than seek a third term at the top of British politics. Brown quietly consulted with his allies and seemed ready to announce a bid before being talked down by North East Senator Peter Mandelson.

“I won’t pretend the thought of running didn’t cross my mind in 2003. Livingstone had blown the race right open. Tony was looking weaker and weaker day by day. A part of me thought I could come in and save the party, and the country from years of Tory rule. Maybe I should have gone for it. I saw my chance but never took it.” - My Life, Our Times, Gordon Brown (2017)

A Livingstone Rally in Birmingham (2003)

Eventually Blair decided to nip the Livingstone campaign in the bud. He agreed to a US-style “Primary Debate” on the BBC. Just weeks before the polls. It was a big risk. Watched by nearly four million the debate marked a first in British Politics taking place in Salford, Manchester. For an hour the two candidates exchanged barbs.

Livingstone attacked Blair for his relationship with George Bush and his support for the Iraq War. “It’s about credibility, its about what we as a party stand for. We are an anti-war party, an anti-imperialist. There are working class Muslim communities here in Manchester that might never vote for us again because of your actions Mr President. The President calls me unelectable but I had two million people marching with me against his Government. Two million votes we need to win.” However polls after the event showed Livingstone had turned off many voters he often lost his cool and turned visibly red at points. He was also heavily combative with Blair in the debate, interrupting Blair to say “lie” several times through the debate.

Blair hammered home the progressive change his Presidency had as well as Livingstone’s association with extremists. “I’m sorry Ken but what of my Government do you not find progressive. Is it the massive pay rise for working class people through the minimum wage, is it the fact that every child in this country had access to a warm meal. I’m sorry but marching doesn’t achieve that. You need grown up politicians doing grown up politics. I mean I removed the monarchy is that not radical enough for you?” Blair landed some particularly stinging remarks. “The truth is nothing will ever be enough for Premier Livingstone, because he works through the politics of protest, he doesn’t want to govern he wants to sell newspapers.”

An older-looking Blair at the Salford debate (2003)

Blair was in his element. Cool and collected. Landing several well placed remarks on Livingstone Blair had practised heavily for the debate and had hired several strategists from the Democratic Party to train him. Blair looked into the camera, spoke in terms people could understand and looked Presidential. The impact was electric and Livingstone dropped by six points in the polls.

The results were a landslide for Blair. Eight million registered Labour supporters turned out, much higher than expected and Blair won six million votes. Livingstone failed to cut through to most Labour voters. Whilst he performed well in his home region of London (the only region he won), as well as in the larger cities more diverse like Bradford and Birmingham. The fact was despite the war most Labour voters seemed satisfied with the Blair Government, or at least more scared of the Conservatives than Blair. Livingstone had lit a spark, but it was quickly snuffed out.

"How far do you agree with the statement: "Ken Livingstone's bid for the Presidency was a pointless vanity project that had little impact on British politics" (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

The Conservatives were also experiencing their primary. The situation looked grim for the party. The 1999 election was a disaster for the party and they had only declined since then. The Government had maintained high approval ratings for years, only beginning to slip in 2003 due to a mix of the coalition collapsing, the war, the euro and division in the Labour ranks. Party elites were desperate to avoid a chaotic primary like in 1998 and after a few choice calls by Federal Chair Annabel Goldie, party elites began to rally around the party’s Parliamentary Leader Micheal Howard. Both Ian Duncan Smith and Liam Fox considered candidacies but instead united behind Howard.

Senator Ken Clarke was the First Conservative to announce his candidacy

Howard was by far the most recognisable Tory to the man on the street. Howard had duelled Gordon Brown once a week for nearly five years. His typically aggressive style managed to land the occasional strong hit that made it onto the 6 o’clock news, most famously remarking “"I asked the Prime Minister two questions, he has answered neither, perhaps he is waiting for permission from the President.” Howard pitched himself as a unity candidate seen as naturally a man of the party’s right, but able to appeal to all sides. Howard was a safe choice for voters who wanted to maintain traditional Conservative values without risking a split in the party.

Libertarian MP David Davis was Howard’s main challenger. The former SAS reservist was known as a maverick in Conservative circles. Fiercely opposed to both the Commonwealth and the Euro, Davis was the standard bearer for the party’s right and even garnered the endorsement of Margaret Thatcher and the “NoEuro” campaign. A strong debater according to his memoirs Davis was the only candidate who Howard truly feared.

Scottish aristocrat and former Senate Leader Micheal Ancram was a former One-Nation Tory wet turned Hague lieutenant and arch-Conservative. Known for his impeccable polite mannerism and his good humour and warmth Ancram pitched himself as the candidate to reach out to the ordinary voter, ironic due to his blue-blooded background. He weaponized nostalgia in his campaign using his aristocratic background to talk about the “old Britain.” Ancram’s slogan put this front and centre “If you value Britain vote for Ancram”

Former Senator Ancram at a press conference in Sheffield

The party’s incumbent Senate Leader Oliver Letwin also tried to pitch himself as an establishment unity candidate. However he found himself passed over by party elites in favour of Howard. Letwin’s decision to support David Laws ascension to Senate Leader won him few friends in the party who thought he had opened the door to the Liberal Democrats becoming the Commonwealth’s main opposition party.

Ken Clarke ran the most ambitious campaign. Running on a brazenly pro-Euro platform amongst the euro-sceptic Conservative base didn’t play particularly well. Clarke emphasised his electable credentials and promised to tone down the power of the Presidency, taking people with him rather than the domineering essence of the Blair Presidency. Clarke emphasised this with his slogan “People and Parliament.”

The Tory party debate took place in London and narrowly defeated the Labour debate for a number of viewers. Howard and Davis dominated the five way debate, Clarke was audibly booed by the audience and both Ancram and Letwin failed to make any sort of cut through. Howard attacked Davis for being divisive and risking another five years of a Labour presidency. “Voting for Mr Davis is a huge risk. We will see activists and MPs at each other's throats and Tony Blair will be laughing all the way to Buckingham.” He also had some choice words for Oliver Letwin. “Mr Letwin calls himself the safe option, do you know what risk looks like? Risk looks like handing control of our senate over to the Euro-fanatic, Blair quisling Liberal Democrats.”

Davis slammed Howard for voting for the Euro Referendum, one of the most watched parts of the night.

Davis attacked Howard for ordering Tory MPs to vote for Blair’s Euro-referendum. “Leader Howard preaches against the Euro but he voted for the referendum. Leader Howard, two thirds of this country don’t want the Euro, why did you support a pointless referendum that will cost this country millions of pounds?” He also contrasted his upbringing with some of the other candidates on the stage, with a hyperbolic swing at Ancram. “I was raised in a slum by a working class single mother. Some people on this stage grew up in a castle. Who represents you more.”

Polling showed Howard as the clear winner of the debate. Both Clarke and Letwin found their campaigns destroyed overnight. However the Conservatives were criticised for their “pale, male and stale” lineup. Over the next few weeks Howard and Davis were neck and neck as the party became more and more divided between the elites and the grassroots. Howard was counting on the support of Conservative voting independents who joined to support the party and vote for him over the more radical Davis.

Howard etched a narrow victory over David Davis. Compared to Blair’s stomping of Ken Livingstone. However Howard’s strong performance on the campaign trail had made him a household name, and a well practised debater. Howard was now faced with uniting the party and had to choose a Vice-Presidential candidate. Howard had hinted at selecting one of his primary opponents previously. He needed someone who wouldn’t overshadow him. Who could keep the right wing Davis supporters happy without alienating the one-nation Conservatives, preferably someone from outside the House of Commons and someone who could balance his abrasive personality. Eventually whittling his shortlist down to five names.

• Former Senate Leader Micheal Ancram
• Yorkshire MP David Davis
• South West Senator Liam Fox
• Senate Leader Oliver Letwin
• East of England Senator Tim Yeo

Micheal Howard discussing his shortlist with his core staff

Yeo and Fox were dropped for consideration for being too divisive. David Davis was considered for a long time but the relationship between the two had deteriorated over the course of the Primary, and there were concerns Davis would outclass Howard. From the final two Howard settled on Ancram, the two got on well, Ancram could appeal to Scotland and he wouldn’t enrage the right like choosing Letwin would. With his running mate selected the race for Buckingham had officially begun.

"The Conservatives should have chosen David Davis in 2003, discuss" - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[Analytical Engine]

Will the other parties also have primaries?

 

[powerab]

Yeah the Lib Dems and UKIP both have primaries which will be covered in a later update. Ken Livingstone tried to organise a broad "Anti-war/Progressive Alliance" primary with the Greens, Respect ect to try and get a left of Labour candidate (himself) on the ballot but it fell apart.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Might Ken run as an independent, having failed to get the Labour nomination?

 

[powerab]

He will attempt an Independent run. Unfortunately for Ken, Presidential ballot requirements are quiet strict including needing at least 26 MPs to nominate a candidate and candidates need to pay a deposit of £70,000. Ken has neither of these, so he will try to court several left wing parties including the Greens, Respect, the SNP, Plaid and the Scottish Socialists to back him, as well as trying to persuade some left-wing Labour MPs to break ranks and nominate him. This won't work as the alliance will break down and no Labour MP will want to risk Howard getting in. Livingstone will then decry the system and urge his supporters to boycott the vote as there is no "truly anti-war candidate."

 

[powerab]

Of all the Conservative bastions to fall none stung more than the South East. This mostly rural region, filled with shires that had formed the backbone of the party had fallen to Labour. Larger cities such as Brighton and Oxford and smaller towns such as Slough and Crawly alike fell to Labour.

Labour had selected Oxford MP and unpredictable Blair ally Andrew Smith. Whilst he had been close to New Labour he had often rebelled on everything from air traffic control privatisation to nuclear weapons and airport expansion. Smith managed to unite all wings of South East Labour. Meanwhile the Conservatives selected David Willetts, a moderate who specialised in welfare policy, and one of the few Conservatives to openly campaign for the Commonwealth in the 1998 referendum. The Lib Dems selected animal rights activist and "serial bore" Norman Baker. Baker was seen on the left of the party and an ally of Charles Kennedy and one of the Lib Dem's fiercest pro-Commonwealth campaigners.

The policy closeness between the three and their support for the Commonwealth was lamented by UKIP candidate Nigel Farage who said you "couldn't fit a cigarette paper" between Smith, Willetts and Baker during the Premier debate. Farage's Premier campaign was mainly to boost his profile as UKIP's Parliamentary leader and to ensure that Willetts didn't move too far to the left. MEP Caroline Lucas also ran for the Greens from their moderniser faction. As one of their most notable figures she put in a strong performance earning nearly 9% of the vote, breathing down Farage's neck.

Smith's victory was one of the closest results of night. After several recounts Smith was finally declared the winner at 7am with a majority of just 10,000 votes. Smith's victory became one of the great "Portillo moments" of the night.

"When I lost in 97 I thought, oh god I think we're in trouble. When David lost the South East in 99, I thought oh shit we are really in trouble." - Micheal Portillo in an interview with medium magazine (2017)

 

[powerab]

Former Chancellor Charles Kennedy on the Campaign in Newcastle

The Liberal Democrats found themselves on the verge of greatness. They had what all third parties crave, legitimacy, Parliamentary power and a plethora of household names. However the party found itself incredibly divided over its future. The party had found itself going from a few dozen MPs to a party of Government overnight, and it had never really come to terms with that. The 2004 primary would prove a reckoning for the party.

The party was divided between three major factions. The first were the Social Democrats, most notably former Chancellor Charles Kennedy and Home Secretary Simon Hughes. The Social Democrats opposed Blair’s premiership due to the Iraq war and concerns about civil liberties. The second faction were the old-school Ashdownite Liberals, most notably Menzies Campbell. The Ashdownites were the most supportive of the coalition with Labour and tried to walk a middle ground between the social democrats and modernisers. Finally there were the modenisiers, represented by high ranking senators such as David Laws and Nick Clegg. The modernisers were the most hostile to working with Labour and most open to working with the Conservatives. They had a classical liberal/libertarian streak and were weary of over-spending on public services.

Former Chancellor Charles Kennedy was the most well known Lib Dem. He had gained accolades amongst the lib dem left for his stand against the Iraq War and his support for progressive economics whilst in Government. He was also well known amongst the general public through his appearance on comedy shows such as “Mock the Week.” Kennedy’s campaign centred around his opposition to the Iraq War. As well as Kennedy’s straight shooting everyman persona, his slogan emphasised this; “Principle and Decency.”

Former Deputy Prime Minister Menzies Campbell became the standard bearer of the party’s modernisiers. Although not as radical as Laws, Campbell was seen as sympathetic to the modernisers without unacceptable the left. Campbell was also the most experienced candidate having served as Deputy PM and had a strong background in Foreign Affairs. Campbell was seen as a soft-spoken compromise candidate who could bring the country together. His slogan was “fairness, freedom and environmental protection.”

Menzies Campbell built his platform as the Liberal Democrat's Parliamentary Leader.

Former Home Secretary Simon Hughes was also a well known figure, having served as Home Secretary and right hand man to Paddy Ashdown in the early days of the Commonwealth. Having served as an MP since the 80s he argued he had more experience than even Campbell. Hughes was also charismatic, a good speaker and popular amongst grassroots activists. Hughes was a good choice for voters who wanted to keep the Lib Dems leaning to the left but we worried about the rumours surrounding Kennedy. Hughes’ slogan was mocked for its similarity to Campbell: “Freedom, fairness and sustainability.”

Senate Leader David Laws was the most radical of the party’s modernisers. Laws wanted a “clean break” with Labour and wanted the party to rule out re-entering the coalition, and to do more to reach out to the tories. Laws also campaigned on the party being “more than just Iraq.” Laws wanted to campaign on cutting tax and civil liberties and avoid the Liberal Democrats becoming a single issue party. Laws wanted to reach out to people other than the Lib Dem faithful. His slogan was “I’m with David.”

Laws' classical liberal platform was controversial among party activists

Rank outsider Senator John Hemming also made a bid as a traditional old-style Liberal populist. Hemming was known little outside his home city of Birmingham and made much of his name campaigning against family courts and internet censorship, Hemming’s campaign was seen by many as a joke and based his campaign around reducing the power of the President. His slogan was “Say No to an Elected Dictator”

Laws campaign stumbled early with his proposal to work with the Tories despised by much of the Liberal base. Many leading modernisers tactically endorsed the more acceptable Campbell rather than risk the controversial Laws. With Hemming’s campaign dead from the start the election became mostly between Kennedy and Campbell, with Hughes pulling a strong third place. As rumours about Kennedy’s personal life swirled Campbell began to pull ahead.

This was until the debate in which Kennedy put forward one of the best performances of his career. He was funny and personable but also passionate and principled. “Stopping the war isn’t a single issue David, it's about saving the soul of this country. It's about being able to look ourselves in the mirror when we wake up in the morning. It's not a single issue. It is the issue. If you can’t see that you shouldn’t be on this stage.” Kennedy also emphasised his honest nature. “If you’re tired of the lies, of the spin then we have something in common.”

Campbell emphasised the strong work he did through the coalition. “All the other candidates talk about the harm we did in Government, none of them want to talk about all we achieved, prison reform, minimum wage, more money for the NHS, we got things done. I want us to keep getting things done. Other candidates want to turn their back and all that and go on marches.”

Hughes spent most of the debate attacking Campbell and Laws, leading to rumours he had reached a deal with Kennedy. "I am absolutely convinced that moving to the right and sounding like the Blair-Howard consensus is no way forward for the Liberal Democrats". Hughes and Laws especially clashed a lot during the debate. Allowing the two front runners to pull further and further ahead.

Laws struggled in the debate. Whilst he had polled well early on this seemed mostly due to strong name recognition. The more the Liberal faithful heard about Laws the less they seemed to like him. Law’s supposed closeness to the Conservatives gave the other candidates easy forms of attack and he failed to make an impact. "We're not the anti-war party, we're not the anti-Conservative party. We are the Liberal Democrats. We should be fighting for all Liberal ideas and with anyone who will help."

In the end Kennedy pulled back a very narrow campaign. The Lib Dems had decided who they were. A social-democratic anti-war party. Their campaign would be focused around opposition to the Iraq War and the political establishment in general. Kennedy then had to choose a running mate. Kennedy needed to pull the party together, someone who could appeal to the modernisers without being too divisive. Someone older and experienced, especially on foreign policy if the Lib Dems were to be a real party of Government. The five man shortlist consisted of the following names:

• Richmond Mayor Vince Cable
• Former Deputy PM Menzies Campbell
• West Midlands Senator Paul Keetch
• Senate Leader David Laws
• South East Senator Mark Oaten

Both Oaten and Laws were seen as too right-wing and not loyal enough to the Kennedy vision. Keetch was a provincial populist with a military background and strong knowledge of foreign policy. However he was openly anti-euro and Kennedy worried about the optics of the President and Vice-President on different sides of the Euro debate. Eventually the field was narrowed down to Cable and Campbell. Both were older men from the soft right of the party with governing experience. Cable was an economics expert whilst Campbell was a foreign policy guru. Eventually Kennedy settled on Campbell. Campbell was more known nationally and Kennedy needed foreign policy experience more than economics.

Kennedy unveils Campbell as his Running Mate at the Party's Conference in Birmingham

How far do you agree with the statement: "By choosing Charles Kennedy over Menzies Campbell or David Laws in 2003, the Liberal Democrats chose protest over power." (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[Analytical Engine]

I'm wondering how long the Lib Dems will stay together ITTL. Might the centrist, old-school Liberals leave?

 

[powerab]

I'm wondering how long the Lib Dems will stay together ITTL. Might the centrist, old-school Liberals leave?

One of the questions at the front of Kennedy's mind. Fears of defection are one of the main reasons he chose Campbell over someone closer to his politics like Hughes or Steve Webb. The Conservatives are a non-starter for most of the classical liberals. There are a few smaller centre-right parties that have found success on a regional level, such as the Liberals and Pro-Euro Conservatives. The Pro-Euro Conservatives are actively trying to recruit figures like Ken Clarke and David Laws. The Pro-Euro Conservative even gained a national MP when Lib Dem MP Mark Littlewood defected in 2002. However most moderniser MPs recognise that the Pro-Euros are unlikely to break through anytime soon and have decided to ride the Kennedy wave out.

 

[Qaz_plm]

The wikibox says elected premier ,shouldn't it be nominee ?

 

[powerab]

The wikibox says elected premier ,shouldn't it be nominee ?

It should, thanks for pointing out will fix

 

[Thomas1195]

One of the questions at the front of Kennedy's mind. Fears of defection are one of the main reasons he chose Campbell over someone closer to his politics like Hughes or Steve Webb. The Conservatives are a non-starter for most of the classical liberals. There are a few smaller centre-right parties that have found success on a regional level, such as the Liberals and Pro-Euro Conservatives. The Pro-Euro Conservatives are actively trying to recruit figures like Ken Clarke and David Laws. The Pro-Euro Conservative even gained a national MP when Lib Dem MP Mark Littlewood defected in 2002. However most moderniser MPs recognise that the Pro-Euros are unlikely to break through anytime soon and have decided to ride the Kennedy wave out.

Note that IOTL, even as late as 2010, the left-liberals still had the majority within the Libdem supporter base, that's why Clegg had to roll over with the tuition fee pledge even if he did want to ignore it, and that's why the Libdems' collapse was so big in 2015.