What city did the SNP win the mayoralty of? And Sinn Fein winning premiership of N.I!? That's going to scare some unionists. Border poll as TTL Indy Ref?
The SNP's Maureen Watt won the mayoralty of Aberdeen unseating the Lib Dem's Robert Smith, becoming the first SNP MayorWhat city did the SNP win the mayoralty of? And Sinn Fein winning premiership of N.I!? That's going to scare some unionists. Border poll as TTL Indy Ref?
And Sinn Fein winning premiership of N.I!? That's going to scare some unionists. Border poll as TTL Indy Ref?
There was a mix of factors leading to Sinn Fein winning the Premiership.I would like to a wikibox of how that election turned out.
Did the DUP alienate too many Alliance or UUP voters, or something? Too many unionist ballots having their preferences exhausted too early?
Does Northern Ireland not have a power-sharing arrangement in parliament?There was a mix of factors leading to Sinn Fein winning the Premiership.
As for the question of a border poll, whilst their is a Sinn Fein Premier there is still a Unionist majority in the Northern Irish Parliament; 21 Unionist, 18 Nationalist and 6 cross-community (Alliance and Greens), meaning to pass any legislation Sinn Fein is reliant on moderate unionists or cross community votes, whilst the Alliance might back minor policies like extra spending on the Irish Language, it will take a lot to convince them to back a border poll and the division that could bring.
- Incumbent Ian Paisley retired, leading the DUP to select Peter Robinson as their candidate. Robinson was generally seen as an a poor politician and campaigner, he struggled to hold the party together and was seen as dull and technocratic compared to the firebrand Paisley.
- The TUV split was much worse than OTL, this was for two reasons, firstly because third parties are a lot more viable now, secondly because the DUP has moved away from an uncompromisingly royalist position. Whilst they still support bringing back the Queen, its not their main campaign point like it had been under Paisley, this caused many ultra-unionists to switch to the TUV or abstain all together.
- Sinn Fein had re-branded and modernised itself, whilst Martin McGuinness was still at the head it made successful attempts to soften its image.
- Moderate parties like the UUP and Alliance pushed heavily a narrative of Jim Alistair and the TUV pulling Robinson's strings, this scared off moderate and cross community voters and caused lots of them to either vote Sinn Fein in the final round or abstain.
(Wikibox coming soon)
It does but Unionists still are unwilling to approve a border poll, and its not a fight Sinn Fein want to have straight away, they want to "prove themselves in Government", grow their political support and then try and push for a border poll further down the line, in a similar strategy to OTL SNP.Does Northern Ireland not have a power-sharing arrangement in parliament?
Not much tbh, they have a few Council seats around the place in places like East Yorkshire but they've never managed to break through at either a regional or national level. Their best recent result was in the Yorkshire Parliament Election of 2008 where they got 1.8% of the vote, way off the 4% threshold. Occasionally a local councillor somewhere will defect to them but they have a fairly small impact on Commonwealth politics.I wonder what the continuity SDP is doing?
Ironically David Miliband may have doomed Blairism. In this timeline "Brownite" is the dominant term for the Labour right not "Blairite", since Blair was only at the top for five years, compared to Brown's ten. Also since Blair lost his 2004 election and Miliband crashed and burned in 2008, the "Blairism is the magic bullet to winning all elections" mythos never really emerged. Instead since he won three elections, Brownism is the term associated with electability and Brownism is the dominant faction in the Labour Party. There aren't that many hardcore Blairites left apart from D.Miliband and Alan Johnson.That David Milliband quote re: privatisation! I forgot that the Labour party used to be like that. Glad they got rid of him ITTL. Wonder if we'll see the rise of the left as per OTL? Part of me thinks that Corbyn's rise required a lot of chance (reform of Labours voting system, getting the required number of MP nominations etc) but on the other hand a lot of the structural issues that caused the rise of the left (rising inequality post-recession, the perceived electoral failure of the centre and centre-left Labour wings etc) are still likely to be there.
Incidentally, I used to work with a civil servant who said that she'd worked with dozens of Ministers in her time. But the worst one she ever had was David Milliband when he was Defra Secretary of State. She described him as a slimy git who didn't care at all about his policy portfolio and only cared about his image.
They try and they're more successful than OTL, but Respect still struggles with it's image with people like Galloway at the top, in fact this is made even worse that several of its more unsavoury figures are elected members of Regional Parliaments and because of the voting system splits in Respect are much more common as smaller parties like the SWP feel they can go it alone. Respects's peaked in 2004 with 3 MEPs and around 20 members of Regional Parliaments and Senates, however they have declined since then having failed to break through nationally. Lots of the anti-war left have found themselves in the Greens who are anti-austerity, anti-war and have representation in Parliament.