Yeah I think Scottish Labour has written their deathwish there. Looking at how quickly and badly they lost their support base to the SNP just by running a campaign with the Tories in a referendum, a Tory-Lab coalition will just drive voters into the arms of the SNP and Scottish Greens.

Is there going to be a Welsh update soon?
 
That deal is going to really really hurt labour at the next election. Christ, they'll alienate all their voters! Even worse than Better Together did because it's over a five year parliament.

I remember knocking doors in Motherwell and chatting with an old house wife who spat when she said Thatcher's name and shouted so loud I'm sure the whole street could hear, 'that b*tch tore the heart out of this community and put two of my son's out of work.' My parents were Labour voters and changed to the Greens because of the Better Together campaign. A coalition would of had them tearing their hair out.

Why the rise of the far right in Scotland? UKIP I could see scrapping the 5% barrier in the NE, Borders and maybe Highlands and Islands. Can't see them getting seats in the rest though. And the BNP! What's their voter base? Working class British not Scottish people will be voting Labour or Conservative I should think. I think the far right has never really had a base in Scotland as far as I'm aware.
Yeah, that's going to kill Labour in the long run, and possibly make the SNP the big dogs if the liberals also join the Labour suicide pact
 
Yes it absolutely will be a struggle for Labour canvassers to sell that on the doorstep, Murphy will be even more distrusted by the left then he was OTL. It's a great gift to the SNP but Murphy and McConnell felt like they had no choice, the only alternative for a pro-union Government would be bringing in the far right which is completely off the table.

Next election in Scotland the SNP and Greens will hoover up the Labour and Liberal voters. The Libs are now in pacts with the Tories both North and South of the border, that's not sustainable for them in Scotland. The Lib Dems had quite a strong growth in places like Edinburgh and East Lothian off the back of Charles Kennedy and the Iraq War, I think a fair few of those who joined the party in the 2000s moved to the SNP in OTL 2010s. For example, Stuart Currie the current leader of the SNP on East Lothian council was a Lib Dem councillor alongside his wife before both defected in the early 2010s.

The only thing Labour have in their favour is that Angus Robertson is an uninspiring campaigner and won't appeal to Labour voters in the same way that Sturgeon or Salmond could. I remember talking to Robertson at a meeting just after the 2017 election in which he lost his seat. He said to me, in that posh Edinburgh accent that sounds condescending in a way that doesn't even mean to be, something like, 'everything was going well, I was feeling great and then I woke up the day of the election and something felt off. Something was just not quite right.' I thought you've been a f*cking MP for god knows how many years and you couldn't tell you were going to lose own your seat? Everyone could see you and your party's campaign was sh*te that election. It was obvious to everyone but you that the SNP were in trouble in the North East in 2017. In my opinion, I think Robertson is out of touch and can rub people up the wrong way. Of course, this is almost certainly the result of spending too much time at Westminster which he might not have done in ATL. Anyway....

Totally fair enough re: the far-right points. Didn't realise the cap was 4% rather than 5%. I suppose a point of this timeline is small parties having a better showing, even if they may be odious.
 
Yeah I think Scottish Labour has written their deathwish there. Looking at how quickly and badly they lost their support base to the SNP just by running a campaign with the Tories in a referendum, a Tory-Lab coalition will just drive voters into the arms of the SNP and Scottish Greens.

Is there going to be a Welsh update soon?

Glad you asked, yes I haven't done a Welsh update in a while so that will be next on the list
 
If the Scottish Parliament is elected using the same system as OTL (Additional Member System, with 73 MSPs elected using FPTP in constituencies and 7 in each of 8 regions on a proportional basis, using D'Hondt - each voter has two votes, one for the FPTP seat, the other for the regional list seats - for a total of 129 MSPs), there is no set cap/threshold/qualifying level for winning MSPs. The regional list seats are allocated based on the number of list/second votes for each party divided by 1 + the number of MSPs that the party has in that region (with this being recalculated as list MSPs are allocated) - this usually means that a party (or independent candidate, like Margo Macdonald in 2007 and 2011) needs around 5% of the list vote in a region to get an MSP, but this isn't guaranteed. (In the 2011 election, for example, the Lib Dems did not win any MSPs in Lothian region despite getting 5.5% of the list vote. This also means that a party needs around 10% of the list vote in a region to get more than 1 MSP in that region - this makes it very difficult for a small party getting 6-8% of the list vote to have more than 8 MSPs.)

The Welsh Assembly/Senedd uses a similar system, but the effective threshold is higher because there are fewer members (60 in total - 40 elected by FPTP, 20 through regional lists).
 
If the Scottish Parliament is elected using the same system as OTL (Additional Member System, with 73 MSPs elected using FPTP in constituencies and 7 in each of 8 regions on a proportional basis, using D'Hondt - each voter has two votes, one for the FPTP seat, the other for the regional list seats - for a total of 129 MSPs), there is no set cap/threshold/qualifying level for winning MSPs. The regional list seats are allocated based on the number of list/second votes for each party divided by 1 + the number of MSPs that the party has in that region (with this being recalculated as list MSPs are allocated) - this usually means that a party (or independent candidate, like Margo Macdonald in 2007 and 2011) needs around 5% of the list vote in a region to get an MSP, but this isn't guaranteed. (In the 2011 election, for example, the Lib Dems did not win any MSPs in Lothian region despite getting 5.5% of the list vote. This also means that a party needs around 10% of the list vote in a region to get more than 1 MSP in that region - this makes it very difficult for a small party getting 6-8% of the list vote to have more than 8 MSPs.)

The Welsh Assembly/Senedd uses a similar system, but the effective threshold is higher because there are fewer members (60 in total - 40 elected by FPTP, 20 through regional lists).

In this timeline OTL devolved Parliaments (Scottish, Welsh, NI and London) have been brought in line with the national voting system, which is a Sainte-league system of only multi-member constituencies with an electoral threshold of 4%, the OTL Scottish Parliament voting system was never brought in.
 
Third Party Primaries Part 2
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Clegg's momentum built after the TV debate by putting up a good fight against Jeremy Paxman

"One of the most difficult tests in the life of a British politician is the summons to appear on Jeremy Paxman's "Newsnight" program on the BBC. Paxman has been known to make even seasoned politicians squirm in their seats with his hard-hitting questions. If he feels that an interviewee is being evasive, he repeats his question a dozen times, if necessary. He makes it clear that he is not satisfied with their answer and gives up on them with contempt. A Paxman interview in the middle of a primary campaign is so risky that front-runner Vince Cable turned down the invitation. His left-winger challenger, Chris Huhne, also backed down. Both men believed that they could afford to snub Paxman, but they were wrong. As it turned out, Nick Clegg, the boyish MP for Yorkshire entered the ring with Paxman. He withstood everything Paxman threw his way for a full 35 minutes. He came off looking good in the process: telegenic, relaxed and quick-witted. Compared with the dour Cable and the sometimes supercilious Huhne, Clegg made a refreshing impression."
- The Unstoppable Rise of Nick Clegg, Marco Evers, Der Spiegel (2009)

After Clegg’s stunning performance in Norwich the Huhne campaign quickly shifted gear from “stop Vince'' to “stop Clegg.” Huhne went on to attack Clegg over his "flip-flopping" over core policies and accused him of hiding a rightwing agenda. He said that Clegg had not made his position clear on nuclear weapons, and on aspects of running schools and the health service. Huhne argued it was important to make potential policy differences between the candidates clear. "I do think we have had a series of issues where it is not clear where Nick stands, including on Trident. We do not know where he stands on public services reform. He has given journalists the impression that he is in favour of school vouchers. He has not retracted that. We do not know where he stands on the NHS. In an interview with the Scotsman, he says he will not rule out the question of continental health insurance models. We cannot have uncertainty."

The Clegg campaign hit back, pointing out Huhne’s service in a Conservative Government that supported trident and NHS reform, however Clegg managed to stay mostly above the fray with Alexander and Laws realising a victory was near impossible, they took it upon themselves to make life as difficult for Huhne as possible, ensuring Huhne fell behind and as the race took its final stretch it came down to Cable and Clegg.

Cable pushed back on Clegg's youth and inexperience, highlighting that he was the only person to correctly predict the economic crash. The "sage of Richmond" called on his party not to lose its nerve. Cable urged the party to finish the job they began in Government, highlighting the good work he did as Chancellor in rescuing Britain's beleaguered financial sector.

However both their attacks were for naught, Clegg pulled further and further ahead having a string of strong media performances and interviews, it seemed there was no end to “Cleggmania”, the final nail in Cable’s coffin was two Deputy Prime Ministers, Davey and Campbell’s endorsement of Clegg. As the campaign entered its last week it was clear Clegg had run away with the first round, now Cable had to turn his attention to holding onto second place from Huhne, the party’s own Chancellor coming third place would be a humiliation Cable could not abide. As the party gathered for its conference in Bristol the three leading candidates prepared for the results.

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Whilst Clegg had a blow-out result in the first round, especially considering he was polling third at the start of the campaign, the final round was closer, whilst hardly a knife-edge it was not the blow out result Clegg might have hoped for. Huhne voters had overwhelmingly swung behind Cable in the final round, whilst Clegg was the nominee, Cable’s power and influence in the party was still a force to be reckoned with.

"Cable's experience as an economist in both the private and public sector made him a natural choice as Liberal Democrat Chancellor. He used his position to secure a major switch in party policy, away from higher taxes and higher public spending. Cable warned that levels of personal debt were too high and that the banking systems of the Commonwealth and the US were heading for trouble. This prompted many in his party to encourage him to run for President. When Clegg won the Primary he still remained an influential member of the party." - Britannica Book of the Year 2011 (2011)

However it was still a victory for Clegg, last year his career had seemed all but over, now he was a candidate for President, many polls even showed him in with a shot if he could make it into the final round. Now the task in front of him was to consolidate his position at the top of the party. Cable’s ego would need soothing and those on the left that backed Huhne needed reassurance Clegg wasn’t a blood-sucking Thatcherite, he had quite the task.

First task for Clegg was the selection of a running mate, Clegg wanted someone older and experienced to balance out his youth. Clegg also wanted someone broadly aligned with him on policy questions, he couldn’t afford to have his decisions second guessed, finally he was fighting to win he wanted someone who could become Vice President on day one, with the experience to lead.

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Clegg asked his former Presidential opponent Danny Alexander to lead the search for a Vice-President

"Davey was a rising star of the LibDems, turned into a big beast. But has his star hit its ceiling after deciding against a Presidential bid? His second period as Deputy Prime Minister has been disastrous for Lib Dem poll ratings. But my snout says he is one of the front-runners for Clegg's running mate. A backup plan in case Cable or Huhne show Clegg to door. Despite all this he is still Deputy PM but if Clegg doesn't pick him it might foreshadow a future demotion if Clegg enters Buckingham."
- Top 50 Liberal Democrats 2009, Ian Dale (2009)

Five names topped the list for most pundits, Vince Cable, Ed Davey, David Heath, David Howarth and Chris Huhne. All had their strengths and weaknesses Cable and Davey both brought the experience Clegg needed, holding some of the most senior positions in the British Government. They were both broadly on the right of the party, both being fans of the Orange Book. Howarth and Huhne were both from the centre-left of the party, they could unite the party but Clegg was concerned of either of them undermining him on the campaign trail. Finally there was David Heath, Heath was a bit of a wildcard, from rural Somerset Heath had served as a Senator for the South West and then became President of the Board of Trade in the Coalition. Heath was a rural populist in the mould of Paul Keetch and Norman Lamb, he had voted against the Euro and was outspoken on rural issues, he could certainly help win Howard voters but could become a liability on the campaign trail.

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David Heath was briefly considered, Clegg was eager to win over rural England

Clegg dropped Heath and Howarth early on, they were simply too unpredictable to be on the ticket and they lacked the experience the other candidates had behind them, Clegg wanted someone ideologically similar who he could trust. This left his final three of Cable, Davey and Huhne. After a second round of vetting and interviews coordinated by Danny Alexander, the Clegg campaign decided to drop Huhne. Whilst the two had been close friends whilst serving as MEPs the years had pushed them apart and the primary campaign had been bitter and there was a lot of bad blood on both sides. It was unclear whether the two could work together well.

This left Clegg with a straight choice, Cable or Davey? On paper the candidates were fairly similar, both Lib Dem “big beasts” from South-West London, with Davey serving twice as Deputy PM and Cable as Shadow Chancellor, the main difference was age and appearance, Cable was an economist by trade, much older than Davey he could come across and wise and experienced, or as a boring dinosaur. Davey meanwhile looked like a traditional politician in crisp suits. The other main division was policy speciality, whereas Cable obviously knew his way around the world of finance, Davey’s passion was energy and the environment, in the end Clegg decided he needed economic know-how more than an eco-warrior and at a press conference in Exeter he revealed Cable as his running mate.

"He won’t say so, but it is clear his relationship with Clegg became strained. “Economics was never Nick’s strong suit,” says the Lib Dem Senator Matthew Oakeshott, a long-standing friend of Cable’s. “In the campaign, it was almost a father-and-son relationship. But, as Nick’s advisers told him to assert himself, it got more difficult. that avuncular relationship changed.” It may also be that Cable was inclined to believe in the idea of Saint Vince. He saw himself as the vital leftish cement in the Clegg camp. Cable says his “head before heart” speech was crucial in persuading his colleagues to back a deal with the Tories during negotiations in 2008. But hubris led to nemesis when during the campaign he claimed to two undercover reporters that he could bring the government down. Not stopping there, he claimed he had “declared war” on Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation. He came very close to resigning from the ticket. Was it a mistake for Clegg to pick him over Davey? "No comment" Cable replies." - Vince Cable: “The 08 coalition was a success” Patrick Wintour, The Guardian (2012)

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Clegg and Cable share a joke at a campaign event

How far do you agree with the following statement: “The Norwich TV debate was the most important part of the 2009 Liberal Democrat Primary” (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)
 
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Closer Look, 2008 Welsh Parliamentary Election
Wales had been run by Premier Alun Micheal since 1999, supported by a minority coalition of Labour and the Liberal Democrats since the birth of the Commonwealth. Although this coalition rarely had a majority and had to rely on occasional support from Plaid Cymru, the First Minister for the last nine years, Rhodri Morgan was an accomplished deal maker and remained popular amongst the Welsh people. However Morgan, reaching 70 had decided not to seek a fourth term as First Minister.

Kevin Brennan succeeded Morgan as Welsh Labour's candidate for First Minister. Brennan was relatively young, in his 40s compared to Morgan who was in his 60s. Brennan was also well placed to unite Welsh Labour, generally seen as a Brownite, he got on well with Premier Micheal whilst being very close to Morgan as a former aide. Brennan committed to maintaining the "clear red water" Morgan had established, such as free prescriptions and bus passes. Labour lost seats in Wales but its results in the Celtic nations across the country exceeded its performance in England and Brennan still managed to keep Labour as the largest party.

The Conservatives were led by David Davies, a former solider and Howardite from the right of the Conservative Party. Davies served as a special constable part time alongside being a member of the Welsh Parliament, Davies focused his campaign around law and order and reducing crime. Davies was a fierce critic on some areas of Labour policy covering crime. He made a lot of noise about the policy of housing sex offenders at Prescoed open jail, which was in his Monmouth region. Brennan said that Davies represented the "hard-right" of the Conservative Party. Despite the controversy around Davies, the party managed to take advantage of Morgan's departure and the national swing to net a gain of eight seats.

Plaid Cymru's leader Ieuan Wyn Jones decided not to lead the party into the parliamentary election, instead choosing to focus instead on the Premier election of 2009. Plaid selected Hywell Williams as their leader, a national MP of nearly a decade, Williams was one of the closest things the party had to an elder statesman. Williams came from the Liberal, reformist wing of Plaid, Williams was open to working with Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Unfortunately for Plaid, Williams failed to be noticed in the election and Plaid got dragged down for its frequent support of the Welsh Government.

As for the smaller parties, like Plaid the Liberal Democrats suffered for their connection to the Government. Lib Dem MWPs were actually ministers in the Micheal Government which coursed them to lose even more seats than Plaid, the Greens also made little impact, the party spending its efforts trying to protect it's one national Welsh MP. On the right UKIP and the BNP did well, as the Conservatives were now fully converted to a pro-Commonwealth position both parties were free to campaign for a return of the Queen and end to federalism without fighting for space with the Tories. Something to be said for being a big fish in a small pond.

Whilst the election wasn't a disaster for Labour like some regions of England, the coalition had lost eight seats. Whereas previously the Government could survive with a minority of one or two seats, now they were nine seats behind a majority. Brennan decided the best way to keep the Davies out of power was to invite Plaid to join the Welsh Government alongside the Liberal Democrats, creating the first majority Government in Welsh Commonwealth history.

2008 Welsh Parliament Election.png

"Plaid Cymru Senedd leader Hywel Williams told BBC Wales today that the party needed to reach out to new supporters. Calling on the party to "smash the old perceptions" that it was a party of extremists that represented only Welsh speakers. In the wake of the financial crisis and the Senedd election weeks away, Williams said it was time for "values to be at the forefront of everyone's minds". Williams said it had an opportunity to lead the Welsh government this years devolved elections in 2008. "There could be no greater challenge or privilege for our party," he said. "We need to tell people that we are a party for everyone in Wales, regardless of the language they speak, where they're from or where they live." The interview reflected an attempt to distance Plaid from the flak endured by Labour over the financial crisis. Williams said: "Our message, our promise, to the people of Wales is that Plaid Cymru will never be a member of the Westminster club. At a time when people in Wales feel angry and let down by the same old Westminster politics, now is the time for change." - Williams: we're not extremists, the Guardian (2008)
 
Third Party Primaries, Part 3
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Farage would smoke whilst canvassing his constituency

“Farage was born into a prosperous family. His father was a stockbroker—and attended Dulwich College, a prestigious private school in London. At age 18, instead of pursuing a university education, he became a commodities trader. He joined UKIP when Alan Sked created it in 1993 to support the Eurosceptic party’s campaign for Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. The South East elected him as an MP in 1999 and reelected him in 2002, 2005 and 2008. Farage campaigned for UKIP to stop focusing on a single issue. He wanted to develop policies on a broad range of economic and social issues, including immigration. He was helped by an engaging personality and by his reputation as someone who defied “political correctness." UKIP became the first British mainstream party to propose nationalist policies. UKIP avoided the branding that had prevented the National Front and the BNP from electoral success.”
- Nigel Farage, Peter Kellner, Encyclopedia Britannica (2019)

UKIP was also conducting its Presidential Primary, after his surprisingly strong performance in the 2004 Presidential Election, Knapman announced his retirement from frontline politics and the Senate, now UKIP had to chose its new President, the young party had cemented itself as Britain's fourth party, the only party outside the three main parties with MPs and Senators in every region of Great Britain, now that the party wasn’t constantly on the verge of collapse and extinction, they could finally focus their efforts on expanding their electoral coalition.

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UKIP's support had gradually increased since the Commonweath's fouding

The man of the hour was of course Nigel Farage. The MP for the South East had thus far avoided leadership positions of national UKIP, instead preferring to grow his personal brand through frequent appearance in media shows such as Question Time. Despite this he remained one of UKIP’s most recognisable figures and strongest media performers. Both in 1999 and 2004 Farage had resisted the temptation to run for President, ostensibly because he wanted to avoid UKIP becoming a “one-man show”, Farage was a shrewd politician and he knew a failed Presidential bid too early on could destroy his future chances and UKIP’s electoral future. Now all eyes were on him, would he jump in the ring, or let another cycle pass?

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Farage had spent his time on the backbenches as UKIP's "International Relations Liaison." He travelled around Europe forming connections with other far-right parties

Sick of waiting for Farage to make up his mind, first to jump into the ring was Scottish MP and UKIP’s Leader in the House of Commons, Malcolm Pearson. Pearson was probably the most well-known UKIP figure besides Farage, having dramatically defected from the Conservatives in order to nominate Knapman back in 2004. Being a millionaire former lord, Pearson didn’t help UKIP’s image of old white rich men, Pearson was an old Etonian and chairman of a City insurance brokers. However Pearson was fairly credible for a UKIP candidate, he had professionalised the Parliamentary wing of UKIP over the last four years, turning it from a chaotic mix of random activists to a professional institution to match the 1922 committee or PLP, with a central whips and leaders office with full-time paid staff. Pearson based his campaign around two major issues, his primary concern was the “islamification” of Britain, Pearson pledged to campaign against “Sharia law”, Pearson also wanted to adopt Swiss-style direct democracy and the use of local referendums. Finally Pearson was the most open of the candidates to working with the Conservatives, saying he would serve in a Howard Government and proposing an electoral pact with the Conservatives. Ironically, withdrawal from the EU seemed to be fairly far down Pearson’s list of priorities.

“Pearson sees the party purely as a vehicle for leaving the EU. He even says he'll disband it if the Conservatives committed to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty - an idea rejected by the Tories. Pearson has angered some in UKIP with his offer not to stand candidates against eurosceptic members of other parties. His other main campaigning platform is to warn against the dangers of Islamic fundamentalism. It came from the heart, but it was an area that his more savvy opponent Nigel Farage has steered away from. Farage recognised its potential to land UKIP with the charge of xenophobia, which he had worked so hard to shift. But it would be a mistake to view Pearson as someone who is not cut out for public life, or who lacks the stomach to campaign for what he believes in. Before he became UKIP's Parliamentary Leader, he had a reputation for not steering away from a fight. The bigger the opponent, the better, it seemed. In his time in Parliament he has declared war on, among others, Lloyd's of London, the Home Office and Marxism.” - Profile: UKIP candidate Malcolm Pearson, Brian Wheeler, BBC (2009)

Second to enter the race was London Senator Gerard Batten. One of the party’s original founders and first elected representatives Batten too based his campaign around Islam, pledging to block the construction of any further Mosques in the Commonwealth. (It is dubious how he would have achieved this as planning permission was in the gift of councils and regional Governments). Whilst Batten and Pearson shared similar attitudes towards Islam, their main was difference on cooperation with the Tories. Whilst Pearson supported an electoral pact and a formal coalition, Batten said the party should support the Conservatives through confidence and supply if it was necessary to keep Labour out, but UKIP shouldn’t join an “Osborne coalition” let alone an electoral pact. Batten also took an economically populist railing against “bankers” and “the elite.”

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Batten was known for populist, anti-elite speeches on the Senate floor

After a few days of it seeming Batten and Pearson would be the only candidate, Farage finally announced his candidacy. Farage pledged to make UKIP into a “serious, credible force.” Farage said it was finally time for him to “lead from the front.” Farage wanted to focus on electability, professionalising the party’s communications, pledging to break 10% of the vote in the Presidential election, and using his position as the Presidential Candidate to boost UKIP’s profile, Farage campaign focused on Europe, rather than “bagging on about Muslims.” On the issue of working with Conservatives, Farage said he would serve as a Minister as part of a formal coalition, but drew the line at a formal electoral pact.

“UKIP in recent years has become more and more effective at its messaging. They have employed simple, effective explanations of their policies. They now have to fight less to gain airtime in the media because of their increased electoral presence and legitimacy. They have become more in tune with the political mood since the financial crisis. In their 2009 Presidential Election manifesto, UKIP promised the following. Hold a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU, Reinstate Grammar Schools and increase defence spending by 40%. Whilst some of these policies are not intended to be serious, the messaging is effective at calling out to Conservative voters. These voters may have become tired of excuses for not holding an in-out EU referendum. UKIP has also been effective at tapping into frustration with career politicians. They have condemned the 3 mainstream parties as almost unidentifiable. This narrative is effective and feeds into a feeling that goes way beyond Europe.” - The Pact, Michael Fabricant (2012)

The final candidate to enter was West Midlands Senator Nikki Sinclaire. Sinclaire was one of the first trans people in the world to be elected to a national Parliament, entering the senate in 2003. Sinclaire described herself as “old UKIP” in the mould of Alan Sked, representing Libertarian social views and centre-centre left economics. Sinclaire wanted to focus the campaign around leaving the EU “then we can all go home, I’m not interested in a politicians salary.” On the issue of Islam Sinclaire believed it was a mistake for the party to base its Presidential campaign around “making a fuss about Islam and immigrants.” Sinclaire was also the most hostile to working with the Conservatives ruling out any sort of pact or deal.

With Islam, Conservatives and Europe at the top of the agenda, UKIP’s great debate officially began. Old UKIP, new UKIP, blue UKIP and red UKIP all clashed in the first real internal conversation the party had in its short history. The outcome would decide the future of the Commonwealth’s sprouting fourth party.

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Farage's campaign was chaired by David Coburn, UKIP's leader in the Scottish Parliament

"In the Eurosceptic Commonwealth of Britain, UKIP became the fourth strongest party in Britain, with 6% of the vote in 2008. UKIP itself has also been characterised by infighting since its success in the elections of 1999. Like in 2004 when Presidential candidate and television presenter Robert Kilroy-Silk left UKIP. After 2004 this turbulence has continued. 13 UKIP regional parliamentarians left the party between 2004 and 2009."
- A Thorn in the Side of European Elites, Florian Hartleb (2011)

To what extent did the 2009 Primary “detoxify” the UKIP brand (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)
 
Closer Look, 2008 West Midlands Parliamentary Election
The maverick Clare Short had served as the Premier of the West Midlands since 1999. The only Premier to endorse Ken Livingstone in the 2003 Primary, Short had left the Labour Party after the 2005 election, saying she no longer recognised the party. Despite this Short kept in place the Labour/Liberal coalition that had been in place since her election in 1999. After the 2005 election this coalition was expanded to include the Greens. The coalition was led by First Minister Tom Watson.

Going into the 2008 election the Conservatives were led by Andrew Mitchell. Mitchell was from the Libertarian wing of the party and was a key ally to David Davis during his 2004 Presidential bid, serving as his campaign's chair. Regional politics was a strange choice for Mitchell, a former solider and UN peacekeeper, Mitchell's area of passion was in foreign affairs. However Mitchell was a competent leader, a former whip in the pre-Commonwealth days Mitchell begged borrowed and stole in order to whip the dysfunctional West Midland Tories into shape after a near decade in the wilderness. This seemed to pay off, the party gaining ten seats.

Former trade union official and arch-Brownite bruiser Tom Watson was the incumbent leader in Birmingham. The Labour group in the West Midlands had long been in chaos since Short's departure, a handful of Parliamentarians left with her to sit as independents. Watson was known as "Browns man in Birmingham" Watson was frequently criticised for being too close to the Prime Minister. These criticisms were exacerbated when Watson's office was accused of using official Government computers to leak untrue allegations about high profile Tories that Brown considered a threat. Watson was a strong believer in the power of internet and tech, Watson's flagship policy was the introduction of super-fast broadband infrastructure across the West Midlands, unfortunate for Watson, Brown's popularity in the West Midlands had taken a turn for the worse, bringing Watson's political stock down with it, this alongside Short's refusal to endorse Labour and Watson's personal controversy caused the party to lose nine seats.

Solicitor Mike Nattrass led UKIP with an anti-establishment flare. Nattrass said the party was the true home for those who valued "freedom and democracy above all else." Nattrass was on the "old-UKIP" wing of the party and often clashed with leading figures like Farage and Pearson. Nonetheless Nattrass found himself popular amongst West Midlands voters and garnered a 5% swing to the party.

For the minor parties, the Liberal Democrats and Greens struggled due to the coalition, losing three seats each, meanwhile the BNP trod water, losing much of its support to Nattrass and UKIP.

After the dust settled the election had been a great victory for the right, especially the Conservatives. Mitchell and Nattrass. Mitchell was keen for a coalition with UKIP, referring to the Eurosceptic party as the Conservatives "cousins." Whilst Nattrass was suspicious of a formal coalition, a ballot of West Midlands UKIP members ordered him to form a Government with the Tories, like in the South East, the West Midlands now had a "BlueKip" coalition, the number of these regional alliances were slowly ticking up, much to the dismay of Labour activists.

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"Former First Minister of the West Midlands and a close ally of Gordon Brown's. Watson is as a key member of the "Brown cabal" that includes Damian McBride. McBride resigned following the publication of emails offensive allegations against senior Tories, Watson was accused of a similar campaign in the West Midlands. He later told friends that what followed was "the worst week of my political life". The Mail on Sunday published an article claiming that Watson had "encouraged" McBride's emails. The paper later apologised in court and paid "large" damages to Watson. Watson insisted that he did not know anything about the emails from his Birmingham base and would not have approved of them if he did. But the episode made Watson rethink his priorities. He concluded that some things were more important being First Minister. After today's election Watson will leave his official residence. Watson is leaving regional government, but to carry on advising Brown and working on campaigns. Including Brown's rumoured Presidential bid." - Profile: Tom Watson, Andrew Sparrow, The Guardian (2008)
 
Third Party Primaries, Part 4
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A Farage for President Rally in Swansea

“UKIP Presidential candidate Nigel Farage came in for a rough ride during an hour-long webchat on the Mumsnet website. Site members attacked Farage. Some are irritated by his policies on Europe, immigration and maternity leave. And they were quick to call out suspected UKIP members who had joined the site to praise Mr Farage. The MP, one of several Presidential candidates to take part in a live debate on the site, admitted it had been "hard work" but said he had enjoyed it. South East England re-elected Farage as an MP back in May. Farage is now seeking a role at the head of UKIP, which campaigns for Britain's exit from the EU. A full day before the chat started, the site's users began posting criticism of the party, while some sent blank messages in a "silent protest". But when more UKIP-friendly comments started to appear, the site's members noted "new posters'' had joined the discussion. One member remarked it would have been an idea to stop people who had not before registered with the website from joining the discussion. Saying it would "stop the inflow of UKIP politrolls''.
- UKIP candidate Nigel Farage undergoes Mumsnet grilling, BBC (2009)

The UKIP campaign was relatively short compared to the larger parties, only taking a matter of weeks. Farage quickly established a commanding lead with his large media profile and his own political talents. Whilst he had considered Pearson a threat early on, Pearson quickly found himself unsuited to the cut and thrust of frontline politics, coming dead last in the Primary debate in Preston. The two shared fairly similar views and Pearson confessed he wouldn’t have run if he knew Farage would run. In the eyes of many UKIP voters, Farage was just a better version of Pearson.

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Pearson, whilst a competent backroom whip and administrator, struggled against the more media-savy Farage

Batten struggled to muscle in on the political scene, whilst his anti-Islamic views played well with a certain section of the UKIP base, it turned off twice as many people as it attracted and Batten failed to get anywhere. Sinclaire also struggled, her candidacy proof that “old-UKIP” was dead. Despite Alan Sked’s endorsement and her media interest, due to the novelty of a trans woman running for office, Sinclaire had very little impact on the primary.

As UKIP activists travelled to windy Bournemouth on a brisk February day it was clear Farage had won a clear victory, the only real question was by how much? If Farage won by a landslide he’d have the breathing space to reform the party in his image and discount some of the more unsavoury Islamophobic elements of the party. If Farage’s victory was a narrow one he would struggle to greatly reform the party and would need to work collaboratively with other factions of the party.

Farage’s primary strength would also have an impact on the national election, if he won by a huge amount he wouldn’t need to watch his metaphorical back and he could focus actively on campaigning, bad news for Howard and Griffin who were fishing in the same pond but good news for the progressives like Brown and Clegg. On the other hand if the primary result was close, Farage would have to spend most his time holding the party together. UKIP would have to sit out yet another electoral cycle as an irrelevance, which could doom the party.

“The Sun' calls Nigel Farage racist – but there seems to be no stopping his momentum, as our poll shows. Farage is on course for a landslide victory in this week's UKIP primary, a poll for The Independent on Sunday shows today. But today Nigel Farage denied it was racist to point out "differences" between certain types of immigrants. The Ukip leader yesterday issued a statement rejecting claims that he was racist in his explosive interview. He risked further controversy by declaring that there was a "high level of criminality within the immigrant community." Today's YouGov poll gives Ukip its highest polling in a Presidential elections survey. Among those who are certain to vote, Farage is on 10 per cent, 5 points behind Clegg on 15 per cent. The Griffin down two points from the last ComRes poll earlier this month, at 6 per cent. Meanwhile at the front of the pack Gordon Brown is trailing Howard’s 43%, but he has jumped up two points to 25%.” - UKIP Primary: Farage set for landmark win, Andrew Johnson , The Independent (2009)

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A lot was the answer, Farage nearly won in the first round with 46%. Sinclaire was eliminated first in the final death rattle of Alan Sked’s project. Most of her support transferred over to Farage, allowing him to win in just the second round. UKIP’s backroom kingfish was now formally on the throne. Farage’s victory struck a populist tone, possibly to try and head off Griffin’s challenge to his right flank, he referenced the ongoing industrial disputes over foreign workers in the UK stating “I don't think anyone thought that President Howard would ever put the interests of British workers first. Mr Howard claims to be a Eurosceptic, but he has done nothing over the last few years to stand up to Brussels. If you want British jobs for British workers there is one party you can vote for.”

Now the issue came to select Farage a running mate. Above all Farage wanted someone loyal, who he could work with and definitely wouldn’t steal the spotlight. Also someone who wouldn’t say anything insane and sink the campaign before it got off the ground, Farage’s staffers wrote up a final shortlist of three candidates; David Campbell Bannerman, Malcolm Pearson and Jeffery Titford.

Bannerman was a good candidate on paper, relatively young, in his 40s, a former special advisor and UKIP’s Senate Leader he was definitely experienced, defecting from the Conservatives in 1999, he was a relative moderate. As a former PR man Bannerman he could definitely help Farage’s goal of a professional, well spun Presidential campaign. Most importantly he could be trusted to appear in media interviews without making a fool of himself.

“My point is to start calling people "deniers" smacks of fascism and thought control and isn't worthy of a proper debate like this. I would say on the Green side. Patrick Moore, one of the best astronomers in the world is one of our (UKIP) Members of the South West Parliament, studied planets for 50 years. He thinks the whole thing is utter nonsense, its the sun. It will sort itself out in 50 years. Mars and Venus' ice caps are melting at the same rate as earths. It's funny isn't it, Al Gore was actually on record, his personal wealth has gone up 50 times since he wrote "An Inconvenient Truth." According to Fox News he's on course to be the first green billionaire. I said how you (The Green Party) acted was like a cult because calling people deniers is very dangerous stuff. That's all I'm pointing out. Climate change happens every day. Global warming is another issue.” - David Campbell Bannerman talking at the East Anglia Senate hustings (2007)

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Bannerman seemed the best choice. But Farage allies worried his climate-sceptic views could harm Farage's chances

Another option was to unite his party and select Pearson. Pearson was the second most well-known UKIP figure, he was wealthy and had incredibly rich friends, fundraising wouldn’t be a problem with Pearson on the ticket and he might even help the party make inroads into Scotland. However Pearson as an old white Etonian obsessed with Islam would ruin the credible campaign Farage wanted to run.

Finally there was Jeffery Titford, Titford had been a leading member of the Referendum Party and helped to establish UKIP in the early days of the Commonwealth. A Senator since 1999 he was an elder statesman. Rarely for a UKIP figure he was near universally liked by all wings of the party and wouldn’t fragment it in the way that Pearson or Bannerman might, Titford would be a safe, if incredibly boring choice.

Eventually Farage made his choice, at a speech at UKIP North West’s conference in Liverpool, Farage announced UKIP was the “true voice of the working class.” Unveiling David Campbell Bannerman as his running mate. With all candidates selected, the board was set and the Presidential election could officially begin.

ComRes released the first official poll with all candidates nominated. It was music to Howard’s ears showing the incumbent President on 38%, 13 points ahead of his next nearest rival MP Nick Clegg on 25%, the poll was a disaster for Brown, coming third with 22% and Farage was battling for last with Griffin with the two at 8% and 7% respectively. With this poll it became Labour wasn’t just fighting to win, it was fighting for survival.

“Labour's policies of economic moderation and a liberal approach to migration made electoral sense. But neither reflected the valuers or priories of their original support base: the left behind white, working class. Over the course of a decade, the costs of this mismatch mounted. White working-class voters no longer saw Labour as a party sensitive to their concerns, but as part of the problem. The startling extent of this problem was reflected in a large poll conducted by ComRes on the eve of Farage's nomination as UKIP candidate in 2009. The poll saw the party win only 22% of the vote, which if accurate would be the party's worst national result since 1918.” - Revolt on the Right. Robert Ford (2014)

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UKIP would prove a challenge to Brown's electoral coalition, siphoning of votes from areas like Ilford in East London

“Farage’s was radically different to previous UKIP Presidential Candidates.” Discuss (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)
 
Closer Look, 2008 East Midlands Parliamentary Election
The East Midlands garnered great attention, being the closest region in the 2004 Presidential election. It had been led by Premier Patricia Hewitt since 1999, one of the Commonwealth's few women Premiers, a Blair loyalist Hewitt had fallen out with central Labour since Blair's defeat. The East Midlands had been ruled since 99 by a LabLib coalition led by former Nottinghamshire Council Leader and First Minister Vernon Coaker. In 2005 the coalition lost its majority and was unable to form a Government, even with the help of the Greens. The Conservatives then tried to form a Government with UKIP and also failed.

After weeks of negotiations the region was at a stalemate, the Lib Dems and Greens refusing to join a Conservative/UKIP coalition and UKIP refusing to work with Labour, there was no Government that could be formed without the aid of the BNP, thus the "emergency coalition" of Labour and Conservatives was formed. The emergency coalition, expected to last weeks, managed to last a full term, despite protests from the Labour left.

It was under these conditions the Conservatives went into the 2008 election, under the leadership of Deputy First Minister Alan Duncan. Traditionally in Commonwealth elections the minor coalition party would suffer the worst in election backlashes, however this didn't happen in the East Midlands, Duncan was a highly competent media performer. Duncan was the epitome of the new generation of relaxed, socially liberal Conservatives. He made headlines for being the first major Conservative politician to get a civil partnership. He greatly benefited from the national swing towards the Conservatives and managed to take credit for some of the coalitions more popular policies, like cracking down on domestic abuse. This allowed Duncan to make the Conservatives the largest party with 36 seats.

Labour was led by their beleaguered First Minister, Vernon Coaker. Coaker was a competent politician, managing to hold his coalition of frenemies together for a full three-year term, no small feat. However unlike Duncan he didn't have a nation surge to save him, despised by the left of his party and much of his inner-city electorate Coaker was unable to stop his party's loss of half a dozen seats.

Helmer became UKIP's first opposition leader with the formation of the emergency pact in 2005. It should have been a coup for the reactionary party, a weekly profile as Leader of the Opposition, and a centrist cabal of Westminster parties, working together to keep the people down, it should have been perfect. Unfortunately Helmer's tenure as leader of East Midlands UKIP was a disaster, he got caught up in controversies on a near weekly basis, Helmer was a homophobe, climate denier and misoginist. Furthermore as the East Midlands was the home of Robert Kilroy-Silk, many of the Kilroyite holdouts in UKIP found themselves in Helmer's caucus causing trouble. It was little surprise team purple fell to just 14% of the vote.

As for third parties, the Lib Dems struggled to take advantage of Labour's "betrayal", their leader, Bill Newton-Dunn was a Tory defector himself from the hard-right of the Liberal Democrats, so for lost Labour voters he didn't provide much of a home. The Greens fared better, unlike nearly everywhere else in the country they gained seats, but they were still held back by the divisions that hurt them around the country. The BNP took advantage of UKIP's disarray and Duncan's "deal with Satan" to grow its support, especially in Lincolnshire areas like Boston and working class parts of Nottinghamshire like Mansfield.

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After the 2008 election very little changed the traditional blocks of "BlueKip" "ConLib" and "Traffic Light" all failed to form a majority, after weeks of negotiations the result that all parties feared came to light, the emergency pact had to become permanent for another three years. Duncan and Coaker returned to the cabinet table, all that changed was they swapped seats.

"Ukip has announced its slate of candidates for the House of Commons from the East Midlands. Among them their former East Mids Parliamentary Leader Roger Helmer. Surely Ukip is trolling us now? Here are a best-of, or worst-of, his most incendiary remarks. He told the Sun in April this year that Brits should be able to dislike homosexuals, like they don't like certain types of tea: "[some people find homosexuality] distasteful if not viscerally repugnant... Different people may have different tastes. You may tell me that you don’t like Earl Grey tea. That may be a minority view but you are entitled not to like it if you don’t like it." Helmer later told the Independent that people may prefer "heterosexuality or homosexuality." He also said homosexuality is "not a lifestyle worthy of valid equal respect". I'm sure many will remember Helmer making headline news back in 2005 when he became the party's first regional Opposition Leader, astute readers may also remember his tenure was a disaster and he crashed and burned just three years later. We can only hope" -
Meet Ukip's seal-hating, gay-baiting, victim-blaming Roger Helmer, Anoosh Chakelian, New Statesman (2014)
 
2009 Part 2, Budgets and Bonuses
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Unite led the campaign against banker's bonuses

“A mutinous backlash is growing in Britain this weekend against banks' plans to carry on paying staff millions in bonuses. The Government intends to try to head off the rising tide of resentment against bankers by saying that it will say no to "excessive payments". George Osborne will stop short of an absolute veto on bonuses or a salary cap at taxpayer-rescued banks such as Northern Rock. Downing Street sources say he will also try to "coax" other banks to rein in pay and bonus packages. He will set up a review "which will examine how banks are managed. We expect the review to make recommendations about the effectiveness of risk-management. Despite the recession, Britain's clearing banks will this month pay out millions to staff in bonuses. RBS, now propped up with £19bn of public money, wants to pay its staff almost £2bn in bonuses, it emerged yesterday. Critics contrasted the Government with the cap on executive pay announced by President Barack Obama. They dismissed the Prime Minister's plans as not much more than a non-binding code of conduct, which banks are sure to flout.”
- Backlash over bankers' bonuses, Brian Brady, The Independent (2009)

As the primary season ticked along, on the national political stage bankers bonuses became the top of the political agenda. During a Treasury Committee hearing, the bosses of the two biggest casualties of the crisis apologised for their failure. Former Royal Bank of Scotland chief executive Fred Goodwin told MPs on the Treasury Committee he "could not be more sorry" for what had happened. The former bank chiefs said the bonus culture had contributed to the crisis and banks would need to review it. However Goodwin caused controversy, by saying if bankers felt they were not paid enough, they would leave. Andy Hornby, former Chief Exec of HBOS conceded that the bonuses culture did need to be looked at. "The bonus system has proved to be wrong. Large cash bonuses do not reward the right kind of behaviour," he said. Goodwin argued that traders had been trading within set limits, and had been doing "what they were authorised to do". It is "hard to say that payment was a cause [of the bank's problems]," he said.

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Goodwin provoked public fury for defending massive bonuses for top bankers

Cable took an uncharacteristically populist line on bankers bonuses as part of his campaign to place the blame on the Brown Government. He blasted the old Government's stance as “inadequate.” Cable announced he would commission a review on the use of taxpayers’ cash to reward staff in failed banks. Cable said at Chancellor's Questions: “The problem of bonuses in the Government-owned banks has been looming for years. The party opposite dithered, this Government acted. The party is over for the banks. You can’t go on paying yourselves 20 times what a heart surgeon earns."

The controversy over the financial crisis only grew, Howard had announced a scrapping and reconstruction of the Financial Services Authority. Whilst the FSA was hardly popular, scrapping it in the middle of a financial crisis stunted Britain’s capability to face the crisis somewhat. However in some ways Howard was vindicated when it was revealed that the FSA’s former vice-chair James Crosby resigned following serious allegations. It was alleged that Crosby, when head of HBOS, he sacked senior manager Paul Moore who had raised concerns the bank was exposed to too much risk.

“Some have raised questions about my independence from the government. During the last two years I have devoted considerable time to producing two reports for the government. The first on identity assurance and ID cards and the second on mortgage finance. I am confident that anyone who either worked with me on the reports will conclude that they are the work of someone who is independent. Also I want to emphasise that I have no political connections or affiliations. I am full of admiration for my former colleagues at the FSA and the work they did under extreme pressure. As a non-executive director I have an absolute responsibility to ensure that their names and reputations are not harmed further. Thus, whilst I am confident that there is no substance to any of the allegations. I nonetheless feel that the right course of action for me to make this statement, to protect my former colleagues from politically motivated attacks.” - Statement from James Crosby (2009)

As more and more banks teetered on the edge of failure, President Howard defended the government's handling of the banking crisis. Especially the Government's refusal to consider nationalisation. Lloyds Banking Group - which took over HBOS early in the year - was expecting losses of £11bn. Howard told the BBC's Newsnight the government had to intervene to stop the banking system's collapse. But Howard said that "the cure must not be worse than the disease." Howard confessed that the merger had been a disaster and criticised Vince Cable for allowing it to go ahead. When asked whether the losses represented a disaster for the taxpayer, Howard said the government had to act. "We didn't have months or weeks to look at it, we had to intervene and that is what we did," he said. "Now what we've asked the new management to do is to go through the books so we can deal with the assets that have gone bad." But Howard said that the banks were on "thin ice" and that there would be no "third chances."

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A voter confronts Howard over bankers bonuses in Edinburugh

“There are various reports today that the Government will give bonuses to bankers at banks part-owned by the Government. The Telegraph says that Lloyds TSB is "reportedly ready to give hundreds of millions of pounds to top executives and more junior staff." Meanwhile RBS - now almost 60% government-owned - is also "reportedly paying six-figure bonuses to staff". President Michael Howard has been quick to condemn such a move. "It would be an insult to struggling taxpayers across the country if the Government allowed banks that we part-own to pay out big cash bonuses. To increase taxes on people earning £20,000 to pay the bonuses of someone earning £2 million is unacceptable.” Labour's South East Leader John Denham has waded in to say that banks offering "exorbitant" bonuses risk alienating the public.”
- Micheal Howard says bonuses for staff at Government-backed banks would be "an insult", Conservative Home (2009)

As if by magic, weeks after Howard said there would be no "third chances" RBS announced the largest annual loss in UK corporate history. RBS said that its loss totalled £24bn. It also said it would put £330bn of toxic assets into a scheme that offers insurance for any further losses. RBS said it would make "sweeping" changes to its structure following the loss and did not rule out large job cuts. Now the coalition had its first division, Howard was insistent that no more money should go towards the banks. If they failed they failed. Cable on the other hand had developed a plan to inject another £10bn into RBS, worrying that if the bank collapsed it would have a run-on effect and could bring the whole British financial system. The Cabinet was split with Osborne sitting on the fence, after a few days of deliberation Osborne sided with Cable, RBS would get a reduced bailout of £8bn, and Howard became the first President to be overruled by his own Prime Minister.

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With the backing the Liberal Democrats, Osborne slowly began to assert himself as the senior partner in the Osborne/Howard Government

The Brown campaign had little chance to take advantage of the divided coalition Government as they were embroiled in a crisis of their own. Damien McBride, Brown’s personal Chief of Staff was forced to resign after an inquiry into McBride’s conduct had been completed. The inquiry had acquired emails where McBride had planned to release false information about the private lives of senior Tories, including Howard, Ancram and Osborne during the 2008 election.The backlash was immediate. Paul Staines, writer of the Guido Fawkes blog, described the messages sent by Mr McBride as "obscene". A Labour Party spokesman said the messages were "juvenile and inappropriate". The spokesman added that nobody in Southside knew of the emails. The Tories said it was absurd that advisers were "plotting smear campaigns rather than focusing on how to help." In his resignation letter, McBride said he regretted embarrassing the government. "I have already apologised for the inappropriate and juvenile content of my emails, and the offence they have caused," he said. "We all know that when a backroom adviser becomes the story, their position becomes untenable, so I have offered my resignation." McBride branded the idea of an orchestrated campaign from team Brown as "ridiculous". McBride said he sent the comments of his own volition after canvassing Labour supporters. Brown's Foreign Affairs adviser Mark Malloch Brown had led calls for Brown to sack McBride. Malloch-Brown said McBride's actions had brought "shame" on the Labour Party.

As all three major parties fell into controversy and infighting, the time came for Vince Cable to present the coalition’s last budget before the Presidential election, the budget would make or break the careers of dozens of Commonwealth politicians.

“The Government will cut Britain's public spending bill by £3bn a year the Chancellor, Vince Cable, will declare tomorrow. In an attempt to take the bold action to repair the public finances, Cable will warn that only tough and unpopular decisions can work. Cable has been praised across the political spectrum for having forecast that Britain was heading to a recession. He will say that the Treasury will freeze Britain's £150bn public sector pay bill, 20% of all government spending. His plan, which came as the row between Howard and Osborne over tax and spending intensified, is designed to save £3bn a year. In an interview Cable said: "We must stop civil service bonuses and the culture of inflated salaries. A freeze in the total pay bill is better than cuts in services." Cable will add that the government will have to be prepared to be unpopular. "I don't pretend that the task will be easy or popular. But I have a few ideas on how we would start." Cable has designed the call to show that the Lib Dems outflanking both Labour and the Tories. Mark Hunter, a Lib Dem Senator, called for "bold, serious, difficult decisions." - Vince Cable calls for freeze on public sector pay, Nicholas Watt, The Guardian (2009)

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Osborne and Cable were the founders of the "austerity consensus"

Using the McBride case as a case study, how influential were advisers on Commonwealth politics in the years 2004-2009 (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)
 
2009 Part 3, The Three Horsemen
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Osborne had a strong relationship with Senator Danny Alexander, who often acted as a go-between for Osborne and Cable

“The bombshell rise in VAT will lead to 235,000 job losses and put a permanent dent in the living standards of every family in the country, economists warn. Vince Cable’s decision to hike VAT from 17.5% to 20% from January will raise £12bn a year in extra taxes. The biggest revenue-raising measure in this week's Budget. But experts say it will have serious consequences for both the economy and the living standards of millions of families. They warn those on low and middle incomes will suffer the most. There was also growing anger over the decision to press ahead with the move only weeks after the coalition assured voters they would not raise VAT. Signs are growing that disaffected Lib Dem MPs could even stage a Commons rebellion over the issue. A group of independent economists, said the move would increase unemployment by 240,000 over the next decade and reduce GDP by 1.4% over the same period. Professor David Smith said his Budget modelling suggested that the decision on VAT was ' a mistake'.”
- VAT rises will cost 240,000 jobs, Jason Groves, The Daily Mail (2009)

It was budget day in the Commonwealth, after weeks of negotiations between Cable, Howard and Osborne, dubbed the “three horsemen of austerity” by the left wing press, the national budget was now ready to present to the public. The headlines included the introduction of a new online “portal” where members of the public could see the salaries of any public sector worker earning over £150,000 and could see a detailed breakdown of all Government spending over £25,000. Howard hailed this as a “new age of transparency.” Howard based the plan on the Missouri Accountability Portal. A US website set up in the state of Missouri that provided citizens with a single point of reference to review how money was being spent. Howard was proud of the site. "It will show you why transparency is such a powerful tool in controlling public spending. It can have an especially powerful effect when it comes to salaries."

Another headline was a personal pet peeve of Osborne’s reducing Brown’s 50p tax rate for higher earners to 45p, rumours said that Howard had been keen to abolish the tax altogether but that this had been overruled by Cable. This was paid by a massive increase in Value Added Tax, by 2.5%, raising it 20%. This raised £12bn for the Government. However VAT was widely known as a heavily regressive tax, hitting the poorest the worst. This was protested by Labour and many back-bench Lib Dem MPs, as well as being incredibly unpopular with the public at large.

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Islington Mayor Jeremy Corbyn was one of those who condemned the increase in income tax, saying it would hit communities like his the worst

Cable in his budget emphasised the managing and reduction of interest rates, referring to interest control as “radical monetary activism.” Cable stated that controlling interest rates and the national debt was the best way to repair Britain’s monetary strength. The budget also cut corporation taxes and “simplified” income tax into just four different tax bands. Most continuously the budget announced cuts to the Department of Work and Pensions in the name of “welfare reform.” The DWP, under the leadership of right-wing Michael Gove, announced 7bn of “efficiency savings” by cracking down on “fraudulent benefit claimants” and “top civil servant pay.” With the target being a cut of £17bn by 2014.

Gove announced a new form of benefits named "Universal Credit." To be detailed in a White Paper to be published in early 2010. Gove pledged Universal Credit would. Cut the complexity of the benefit system, reduce the risks for people making the transition into and out of work. Alongside this it would create a simpler system that would be cheaper to run and minimise the opportunities for fraud and error. Gove emphasised the importance that work be made the simpler and more attractive option. He pledged to "root out welfare dependency." Claiming welfare reforms would "reduce the inter-generational poverty that blights communities." Universal Credit was controversial to say the least, Labour Senator Liam Byrne condemned it as cutting “too much too quickly.” Presidential Candidate Gordon Brown said whilst Labour accepted the need for cuts, coalition cuts were going too far and falling on the most vulnerable. Green MP Romayne Phoenix went a step further and called for a Universal Basic Income of £70 a week.

Despite the controversy the budget passed through with only six Lib Dem MPs and three Senators rebelling against the Government. Britain’s first austerity budget, and Osborne’s first major challenge had passed.

“I'd like to focus on another part of Cable's speech - his comments about borrowing. In yesterday's blog I said: "debt cannot rise without raising doubts about the ability to repay. In effect, the British coalition thinks that the UK reached that point some time ago. This is why they decided against a mass-stimulus package. One of Osborne's advisers has pointed out that this was not quite the Conservatives' view. They thought that Britain was in danger of reaching that point quite soon, so the stimulus was not a risk worth taking. That may sound like a distinction without a difference (and, I should say, this adviser wasn't demanding a retraction.). But in fact it does matter, and it shows up a key challenge for the coalition as we wrap up the budget. To see why, you only need to look at Cable's speech. He devoted the bulk of his remarks on how to build a safer financial system for the future. But he can't resist a brief victory lap on the right and wrongs of fiscal stimulus.” - A Conservative Budget, Stephanie Flanders, BBC (2009)

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The tense budget negotiations were described in Cable's 2016 book "After the Storm"

However the Commonwealth’s problems did not end there, in the Department of Health, Britain’s first case of swine flu was confirmed in Scotland, with a handful of cases popping up in Redditch, Dorset and London. Swine Flu was the first flu pandemic in 40 years - the last in 1968 killed about one million people. But, the pandemic started moderately and caused mild illness in most people. Most cases occurred in young working age adults and a third to a half of complications were presenting in otherwise healthy people. The flu had killed nearly 200 people in Mexico and was quickly spreading to Europe.

The Commonwealth’s response was led by Health Secretary David Howarth/ Howarth announced the government planned to use its stockpile of antiviral drugs to treat patients. Howarth drew the line at the wearing of face masks. "We are aware that facemasks are being given out to the public in Mexico. The available scientific evidence does not support the general wearing of face masks by those who are not ill." Howarth was also confident Britain would be able to combat the virus. "We have established a stockpile of enough antivirals to treat more than 30m people, that is to say nearly half of the UK population." A few days after the Howarth’s announcements over 100 cases of Swine Flu had been reported in the Commonwealth.

“Mortality in this pandemic compares favourably with 20th century influenza pandemics. A lower population impact than previous pandemics, but, is not a justification for public health inaction. Our data support the priority vaccination of high risk groups. We observed delayed antiviral use in most fatal cases. This suggests an opportunity to reduce deaths by making timely antiviral treatment available. The lack of a control group limits the ability to extrapolate from this observation. A large minority of deaths occur before healthy people. There is a case for extending the vaccination programme.” - Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England, Public Health England (2009)

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Swine Flu would hit hardest poor areas of London like Tower Hamlets

As if the budget and a virus wasn’t enough, in May 2009, two months before the Presidential Election, The Daily Telegraph obtained a full copy of all Parliamentary expenses claims. The Telegraph began publishing, in instalments from May 2009, certain MPs' expenses. The information originated from the parliamentary fees office. The whistleblower offered it to other newspaper organisations for more than £150,000. The assistant editor of the Telegraph, revealed that the newspaper had paid £110,000 for the information. He described it as ‘money well spent in the public interest’. The Times and The Sun had turned down an offer to buy the leaked expenses file. The report from the Telegraph that whilst in Government Labour Ministers had abused the expensive system for their own gain. Whilst Labour was the most affected in the scandal, Conservative Liberal and UKIP MPs had been caught abusing the system, in fact nearly every party had members abusing the expenses system.

The most eye-catching claims included ones for clearing a moat, maintaining swimming pools, and a £1,600 "duck island. One Senator claimed for a house that was neither in London, nor her constituency. One MP continued to claim for mortgage interest payments, after they paid off the mortgages - they blamed that on accounting errors. The press also ridiculed small claims - including a trouser press, a bath plug and some HobNob biscuits. And there was annoyance at large food bills - some charged even when Parliament was in recess. Whilst some argued that the scandal was proof of the Commonwealth’s corruption, many pointed to the outdated expenses system under the old system, especially for the former House of Lords, warning the scandal would have been much worse in the old Kingdom

Possibly worst of all for trust in Parliament, Commons Speaker Michael Martin and Senate Presiding Officer Alan Hazelhurst were both caught up in the scandal. Martin announced he would resign from his posts after the Presidential Election. Hazelhurst said he would look to stay in place but call a vote of confidence in his chairmanship. With trust in the main parties at an all time low, a financial crisis and a pandemic it felt like anything could happen.

“Senator Alan Haselhurst today announced a Vote of Confidence in himself as Senate Presiding Officer. The Senator for East Anglia told the East Anglian Daily Times: "I continue on in the role if my colleagues wanted me to." Haselhurst told BBC East Anglia he would be taking two weeks to "let the dust settle, but if I have enough support from my colleagues I will be remaining." He expressed scepticism that a different Presiding Officer could reform MPs' expenses. "The Officer is only here as a guiding hand," he said. "He can't force MPs to make decisions." He added that, if he held his job, he would improve understanding among the public of what MPs' jobs consisted of. But Haselhurt cautioned it was important not to jeopardise "routine matters". On the question of his own expenses claims, he said the public failed to understand why such expenses were necessary. "For example, people have said to me that I could commute rather than have a flat in London," he said. "But saying: 'Oh, sorry, chaps, I was stuck on a railway line' when the seat was empty wouldn't cut it." - Haselhust announces vote of no confidence in himself, Lucy Ward, The Guardian (2009)

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Haselhurst had served as the Senate's Presiding Officer since its founding in 1999

“Swine Flu impacted the Presidential election more than the expenses scandal”, discuss (30 Marks)” - A Level History Exam (2019)
 
Closer Look: 2008 Vote of Confidence in Alan Haselhurst
Haselhurst grossly misjudged the mood of his colleagues. Unlike his more politically astute colleague in the House of Commons, Haselhurst expected the expenses scandal to blow over and that his colleagues would be sympathetic and keep him in place. They were not. All major parties allowed the vote of confidence to be a "free vote" but the leadership of Conservatives, UKIP and DUP supported Haselhurst. Whilst the leadership of Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP supported Haselhurst's removal. A large number of Senators from major parties either abstained or voted against their leadership's position.

The main dividing line became between reformists and small-c conservatives. The reformists were against Haselhurst and wanted a more activist Presiding Officer to radically reform the Senate. The conservatives wanted to keep the status quo and have a traditional, quiet presiding officer.

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It was agreed Haselhurst and Martin would both remain in place provisionally until after the Presidential Election, however speculation already began for who would follow as Presiding Officer of the Senate, Alan Beith, Nigel Evans, Lindsay Hoyle, Michael Lord and Dawn Primarolo were all considered the front-runners for the position. With Beith and Primarolo as considered potential reformist Officers and Evans, Hoyle and Lord possible traditionalist Presiding Officers.
 
2009 Presidential Election, Part 1
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The Farage campaign struggled in the early days of the Short Campaign

“There are two regulated periods for candidates contesting Commonwealth elections. Known as the long campaign and the short campaign. Separate spending limits apply in each of these periods. The long campaign period for this year's Senate election began on 19 December 2014 and ends on the day before a person becomes a candidate. The short campaign period begins on the day a person becomes a candidate and ends on polling day. The earliest someone can become a candidate the day that the President dissolves the Senate. For the Senate election on 7 May 2015 this will be 30 March 2015. The Political Parties and Elections Act 2008 introduced a new pre-candidacy expenditure limit. The limit is extra to the election expense limits which apply to candidates during the general election campaign. As well as the limits on national party spending. The expenditure limit for each candidate is different. Parliament increased the limits last year by the Representation of the People Order 2014.”
- Regulation of candidates’ campaign expenditure, Isobel White, House of Commons Library (2015)

In April the “short campaign” officially started this marked the legal beginning of the Presidential Election, Parliament was placed in purdah and the campaigns were allowed to turn on the spending taps. The polls at the start of the campaign were good for Howard, despite recent complications a YouGov poll put Howard at 42%, leading his nearest rival by 18 points, Brown was on 24% and struggling to hold second place against Clegg on 20%. Whilst Farage and Griffin were on 8% and 6%. Labour was still taking the blame from a worsening economic climate and soaring unemployment.

Many in Labour had hoped the expenses scandal would be the great leveller but unfortunately for Brown many of his ministers whilst Prime Ministers were the worst offenders. The only party the scandal really benefited was the BNP, who had not been in Parliament for long enough to claim massive amounts in expenses. However Howard remained popular, his relative lack of power during the Brown years actually benefited him as he kept his hands clean of the financial crisis and expenses scandal. With such an insurmountable lead it would take a minor miracle to remove Howard from his pedestal, most of Britain’s pundits instead focused on the question who would be his principal opponent, Brown or Clegg?

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Back when Brown was PM, Clegg had been a thorn in his side during PMQs

Howard ran his campaign around being a steady pair of hands to guide the country through the triple threat of financial crisis, expenses scandal and swine flu. He ran with the slogan “Enough is Enough”, a dig at the leading Labour political class. Comedian Stewart Lee described Howard’s election persona as an “pretending to be an exasperated grandpa.” Lee said of Howard “he’s gone from dracula to everyone's grumpy loveable grandpa Vlad, who only occasionally wants to suck your blood.”

“Richard Ottaway, Conservative Candidate for Croydon Mayor has launched a major anti crime campaign across the borough. Richard’s ‘Enough is Enough’ campaign, supported by posters in over 250 shops, calls for less paperwork for police officers. This will allow more police on the streets - and proper transparency on criminal sentences. Richard is concerned that some violent offenders are being let off with cautions. Richard said: “Under our Labour Mayor and hard-left Premier, too many offenders seem to get away with it. It’s time things changed.” Jason is also supporting Croydon Council’s campaign to get more police officers on Croydon’s streets to boost the borough’s fight against crime. Residents and businesses are being urged to sign a petition. The council will present it to Premier of London, Ken Livingstone, on behalf of the people of Croydon. Although Croydon is the largest London borough, it only has the eighth highest number of police officers. This is far less than some boroughs with less crime. Jason says “I’d urge all residents to get behind this call to the Premier.” - “Ottaway for Croydon Mayor” leaflet, Jason Hadden (2009)

Howard’s campaign mostly stuck to safe Conservative issues, for example he pledged to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1.2 million. Howard also felt most comfortable campaigning on issues of law and order, he attacked Labour for allowing 900,000 young people to fall into unemployment, claiming that this caused “thuggery and hooliganism.” Pledging to get Britain’s youth back to work allowed Howard to link the issue of youth unemployment to his favourite topic of crime.He pledged that Councils and police would get powers to shut shops or bars selling alcohol to children. A Howard Government would double the fine for under-age alcohol sales to £20,000. He also pledged to treat the causes of crime in the community. Howard promised to increase the use of Social enterprises to deliver more public services aimed. The underlying theme was a broken Labour Britain of drunken unemployed youths that only Howard could put a stop to.

Meanwhile on the Brown side, after a little help from ad agency Saatchi & Saatchi, the Labour Party unveiled its general election slogan: 'A future fair for all'. Gordon Brown told party activists in St Davids that Labour would tap into voters' 'submerged optimism'. The future and fairness were ideas that had always been at the heart of the New Labour project. Underlining this was the 'for all' part. This was a reworking of the powerful 'many, not the few' sentiment. Both highlighted the dividing lines with the Tories. Brown’s campaign was based around the perceived unfairness of the coalition’s cuts. Brown pledged that those with the “broadest shoulders” would bear the brunt of paying down the national debt. Labour’s campaign also tried to paint Howard as a nasty “old-Tory” in the mould of Margaret Thatcher rather than the moderate George Osborne.

Brown made housing a clear pillar of his campaign. He pledged a total of 120,000 affordable homes for the Government to build by 2012 at the latest, creating 50,000 jobs. He promised local authorities would be given the powers to give greater priority to local people on waiting lists. He also promised to reform Council house finance to allow councils to spend the proceeds of council house sales and council rents. Brown also retreated to the one place where Labour had a clear advantage; healthcare. Polls showed voters did not trust Howard with the NHS and Brown aimed to take advantage of this. Brown said his Government would guarantee "enforceable rights." These included treatment within 18 weeks, access to a cancer specialist within two weeks, and free health checks for over-40s. Brown set out long term goals of NHS dentistry, better access to GPs and individual budgets for long-term or chronic conditions.

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Brown visited several hospitals during the campaign, especially northern ones like this one in Sunderland

“Under a Brown presidency cancer patients will be guaranteed a specialist screening within one week. Brown said he would divert budget savings into purchasing diagnostic equipment for the NHS. This would enable doctors to screen patients for cancer more swiftly. The pledge to introduce the change before the end of the parliament extends a policy announced in March. Brown said he would ensure the government would end its reliance on targets in the health service. Instead the NHS would give users "entitlements". Among those new entitlements were rights for all patients to be seen within 18 weeks or to be offered alternatives. Brown said he would give hospitals extra resources to help them meet these obligations. With funds of £1.2bn over five years. NHS officials have said the two-week right could be implemented within three years. Brown staffers estimate the diverted money could pay for over 600,000 ultrasound tests.”
- Gordon Brown to woo with cancer pledge and new NHS cash, Allegra Stratton, The Guardian (2009)

Clegg’s campaign slogan was one word; “change.” Inspired by, if not completely ripped off from the 2008 Obama campaign. Clegg was the youngest candidate on the stage at just 40 years old, compared to Brown and Howard at 58 and 68 each.The Liberal Democrats had been in the Commonwealth’s Government longer than the Conservatives, Liberal Democrat Mayors ran cities up and down the country, they had a successful administration in the South West and they had several well-known cabinet ministers. Now, according to Clegg they were ready to take the top job in the country.

Clegg had a unique position amongst the Liberal Democrats as one of its few leading members not to serve in the Cabinet, this gave Clegg wiggle room to attack both Howard and Brown directly as part of the “same failed consensus”, ironic considering Clegg’s party served in the Howard Government. Like Brown's campaign, fairness was a key strand running through Clegg's manifesto. The Clegg campaign incorporated three main themes of fair taxes, more chances for children, and a greener economy. Whilst the coalition had lowered income tax for lowest earners, Clegg wanted the tax scrapped on earnings up to £8,000. Clegg pledged to protect the state pension and increased pay for service personnel. Clegg also promised to "clean up politics." This prong of the campaign included limiting political donations to £12,000, and introducing an MP's recall system.

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Political reform was a large part of Clegg's campaign

Finally at the bottom of the pack was Farage and Griffin, scrapping for the anti-immigration vote. Farage tried to take advantage of the anti-establishment mood caused by the expenses scandal by adopting the slogan “sod the lot.” However Farage’s anti-establishment message struggled with the fact that UKIP MPs and Senators were some of the worst offenders for expenses abuse, Farage himself had claimed nearly £15,000 in MP’s expenses, including for a flat in London, despite the fact Farage lived in Kent. just 30 miles from the House of Commons.The main thrust of Farage's campaign was, of course, withdrawal from the European Union. Farage claimed membership cost the Commonwealth £120bn per year. Along with that, President Farage would scrap EU fishing quotas and introduce controls on immigration. Farage insisted this was not a one-issue campaign. He had other proposals including a tax-free earnings threshold of £11,000, followed by a blanket 31% tax rate - with National Insurance scrapped. Farage also suggested the creation of "county boards" to oversee policing, education and health.

Griffin’s slogan was even more on the nose than Farage’s “British jobs for British workers.” Griffin hoped to win over disaffected Labour voters in working class areas like Barking in East London and Stoke in the East Midlands. Fear about swine flu, financial anxiety and an anti-establishment sentiment due to the expenses scandal had made the 2009 election a prime target for the BNP, with some suggesting the party could reach two million votes. Griffin said his Presidency would bring an end to immigration from Muslim nations. He promised to "encourage" some UK residents to return to "their lands of ethnic origin" (although he didn't say how). Griffin promised to bring back British troops from Afghanistan immediately, leave the European Union, abolish regional Parliaments and bring back the Queen. Griffin also made a point of reallocating funds from the foreign aid budget to increase spending on frontline NHS services.

In the early campaign Howard had apparently hit his ceiling and had nowhere to go but down, he was the reigning champion and the other candidates knew this. Brown made a strong impression, his manifesto launch in Preston was slick and drew a decent crowd. As the Commonwealth saw so many times and the elections moved along voters slowly trickled back to the two main parties, Farage especially struggled, with a right-leaning Tory to his left and the unabashed radical Griffin to his right Farage’s polling stagnating and he became at risk of losing fourth place to Griffin.

Griffin wasn’t only causing a problem for Farage, over in Broadcasting House as the BBC made preparations for the TV debate, the number one question execs were asking was; should they invite Griffin?

“The BBC is not alone among studios in wanting to attract as much attention to itself as it can. In a noisy, crowded marketplace, if you’re not known, you are unlikely to get watched. So they will not be unhappy to see the coverage today of the controversy over whether to have BNP leader Nick Griffin on the Presidential Debate. Griffin’s appearance is going to happen, the build up will be big and there will be angry debate among Griffin, other candidates, and the studio audience. Anger among the audience has become a key part of politics. I’m not sure whether Griffin will enhance the quality of the debates, but when the media was driving the expenses furore, the ratings rose. If Griffin does appear, the BBC will report it in advance, which will help ratings rise again. In the BBC’s defence, the BNP has won seats in Parliament and passed the threshold for a Presidential candidate. Under the rules of impartiality, they have to reflect that. The other parties have to respond to this change too. The line that ‘we do not share a platform with the BNP’ is less easy to hold.” - Labour should put Brown up against Griffin, Alistair Campbell blog post (2009)

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The BBC had set a precedent by inviting Griffin onto their flagship "Question Time" show twice

“Brown had the strongest campaign launch in 2009”, Discuss - A Level History Exam (2019)
 
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