This is a short timeline I am going to do about the collapse of the party structure in Scotland. Any comments very welcome, will be listened to and may(or not depending over whether I agree), be taken on board.
Here goes. Part One.
The results of the European elections of 2004 were little short of a minor disaster for the Scottish National Party. Whilst the party held onto second place in the overall Scottish popular vote, they received less than 20% of the popular vote. Given the unpopularity of the Labour Party at the time, as shown by the fact they only received 26.4%, their worst ever showing in a national election in Scotland, divisions arose within the nationalists as to why the SNP had failed to overtake them.
This led to calls for John Swinney, the leader of the SNP to resign as leader of the nationalists, something he conspicuously refused to do. He made clear that, whilst it was a poor result for the nationalists, it was a poor result for all of the main parties and furthermore that they only finished nine percent behind Labour. He also made the comment that for the first time over 40% of the Scottish voting public were now supporting parties in favour of independence.
Over the next fortnight, discontent rose within the ranks of the SNP members of the Scottish Parliament. Following Swinneys insistence that his position was secure on June 22nd, the now infamous Deacon Brodies meeting(1) occurred, during which Campbell Martin, Bill Wilson and Andrew Wilson(2) agreed to make a joint announcement that unless Swinney resigned, it was their intention to resign the SNP whip as they held no confidence in their leader, who they felt had sold out to an extent on the issue of independence(3).
Swinney in response to this called a unified meeting of the shadow cabinet, in which he asked them in silence as to their confidence in his leadership of the party. The room sat in silence. He then stated he would ask them individually, and asked his deputy Rosanna Cunningham of her opinion on the matter. She claimed she had full confidence in his leadership and that with three years until the next Scottish Parliament election, things could be turned around. Following this, every member sitting at the table fell in line, he had secured his future. The party though, was fatally divided.
On Friday 3rd July in the Caledonian Hotel in Edinburgh, Bill Wilson, Andrew Wilson and Campbell Martin sat at a table in front of the assembled throngs of the Scottish media. They made the announcement that they felt Swinney was taking their party in the wrong direction, that they felt they could not remain in the group with him as the leader and that the only option to avoid electoral oblivion, to attain their goal of independence was to establish a new party. They agreed that Bill Wilson would become the new leader of this new party. Thus, the Scottish Democratic Party was founded.
This development split the SNP vote and harmed Swinney further. Over the next few months, support for the SNP fell as low as 12%, with the new SDP gaining as much as 8% of the vote in the polls. People took to Wilsons folksy style as opposed to the look of Swinney as a sort of bank manager figure. The SDP were also gaining from the other minor parties, showing radicalism without the Trotskyite edge and with the vigour unseen in a long time in Scottish politics. The party also claimed to have gathered some 5,000 members by December 2004. The time for talking was over though. They now had to prepare for the first general election campaign as a new party within the Scottish political arena.
As they went into the new year, the polls showed the voting intention as such. Labour 31%, Conservative 15.9%, Liberal Democrat 14.7%, SNP 11.3%, SDP 8.8%.(4)
Everything was to fight for.
(1) Other than Swinney not resigning, my main POD.
(2) Campbell Martin had SNP whip withdrawn in OTL for critisising Swinneys leadership, Bill Wilson stood against him and Andrew Wilson, one of the rising SNP stars of the 99-03 Parliament was pushed out due to disagreement between him, Swinney and Salmond. They all have grudges to bear in OTL, let alone in TTL where they view the party as heading down the tubes.
(3) Swinney was seen as a gradualist, gradually devolving more power to Holyrood(Salmond is also on this wing in ttl) until independence happens. Bill Wilson and Martin are fundamentalist in that they want independence as soon as the SNP win a national election in Scotland. Andrew Wilson is more moderate but could be drawn in if the situation was serious enough.
(4) The SNP have suffered from constant infighting from the membership who have remained. Think Labour '83.