The Colour of the Thistle. (draft)

This is a short timeline I am going to do about the collapse of the party structure in Scotland. Any comments very welcome, will be listened to and may(or not depending over whether I agree), be taken on board.

Here goes. Part One.

The results of the European elections of 2004 were little short of a minor disaster for the Scottish National Party. Whilst the party held onto second place in the overall Scottish popular vote, they received less than 20% of the popular vote. Given the unpopularity of the Labour Party at the time, as shown by the fact they only received 26.4%, their worst ever showing in a national election in Scotland, divisions arose within the nationalists as to why the SNP had failed to overtake them.

This led to calls for John Swinney, the leader of the SNP to resign as leader of the nationalists, something he conspicuously refused to do. He made clear that, whilst it was a poor result for the nationalists, it was a poor result for all of the main parties and furthermore that they only finished nine percent behind Labour. He also made the comment that for the first time over 40% of the Scottish voting public were now supporting parties in favour of independence.

Over the next fortnight, discontent rose within the ranks of the SNP members of the Scottish Parliament. Following Swinneys insistence that his position was secure on June 22nd, the now infamous Deacon Brodies meeting(1) occurred, during which Campbell Martin, Bill Wilson and Andrew Wilson(2) agreed to make a joint announcement that unless Swinney resigned, it was their intention to resign the SNP whip as they held no confidence in their leader, who they felt had sold out to an extent on the issue of independence(3).

Swinney in response to this called a unified meeting of the shadow cabinet, in which he asked them in silence as to their confidence in his leadership of the party. The room sat in silence. He then stated he would ask them individually, and asked his deputy Rosanna Cunningham of her opinion on the matter. She claimed she had full confidence in his leadership and that with three years until the next Scottish Parliament election, things could be turned around. Following this, every member sitting at the table fell in line, he had secured his future. The party though, was fatally divided.

On Friday 3rd July in the Caledonian Hotel in Edinburgh, Bill Wilson, Andrew Wilson and Campbell Martin sat at a table in front of the assembled throngs of the Scottish media. They made the announcement that they felt Swinney was taking their party in the wrong direction, that they felt they could not remain in the group with him as the leader and that the only option to avoid electoral oblivion, to attain their goal of independence was to establish a new party. They agreed that Bill Wilson would become the new leader of this new party. Thus, the Scottish Democratic Party was founded.

This development split the SNP vote and harmed Swinney further. Over the next few months, support for the SNP fell as low as 12%, with the new SDP gaining as much as 8% of the vote in the polls. People took to Wilsons folksy style as opposed to the look of Swinney as a sort of bank manager figure. The SDP were also gaining from the other minor parties, showing radicalism without the Trotskyite edge and with the vigour unseen in a long time in Scottish politics. The party also claimed to have gathered some 5,000 members by December 2004. The time for talking was over though. They now had to prepare for the first general election campaign as a new party within the Scottish political arena.

As they went into the new year, the polls showed the voting intention as such. Labour 31%, Conservative 15.9%, Liberal Democrat 14.7%, SNP 11.3%, SDP 8.8%.(4)

Everything was to fight for.

(1) Other than Swinney not resigning, my main POD.
(2) Campbell Martin had SNP whip withdrawn in OTL for critisising Swinneys leadership, Bill Wilson stood against him and Andrew Wilson, one of the rising SNP stars of the 99-03 Parliament was pushed out due to disagreement between him, Swinney and Salmond. They all have grudges to bear in OTL, let alone in TTL where they view the party as heading down the tubes.
(3) Swinney was seen as a gradualist, gradually devolving more power to Holyrood(Salmond is also on this wing in ttl) until independence happens. Bill Wilson and Martin are fundamentalist in that they want independence as soon as the SNP win a national election in Scotland. Andrew Wilson is more moderate but could be drawn in if the situation was serious enough.
(4) The SNP have suffered from constant infighting from the membership who have remained. Think Labour '83.
 
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Hmm interesting, though if this new SDP continue in the centre left role we now have 3 parties (Lib Dem, SNP and SDP) fighting for the same voters (sans Independence of course, though the OTL SNP has shown a fairly strong ability to attract Lib Dem voters regardless of this) and of course if they are fighting against each other it can only weaken their cause.

Certainly Labour will obviously retain power in 2007, though with SNP / SDP fighting they might avoid the various scandals that lost them their leaders over the years inbetween?

Might eventually lead to a formal / informal Liberal coalition between the three? It certainly wouldn't take a big butterfly by any means for the Lib Dems to at least support the concept of a referendum, many do OTL including a few of the leadership challengers they've had over the years.
 
The 2005 UK General Election was one where little changed, nor was expected to change in terms of seats within Scotland. The big losers of the night were the Scottish National Party, losing three seats including Dundee East to Labour, Perth and North Perthshire(1) and Angus to the Conservatives respectively. In terms of the percentage of the votes cast, Labour won with 40.1% of the votes, the Liberal Democrats finished second with 21.2%, the Conservatives third with 18.6%, the SNP fourth with 11.8%, and the SDP fifth with 8.2%. (2)

How this state of affairs arose requires discussion.

The SNP campaign was a shambles from the off. Swinney was caught in an off guard moment just after the launch commenting that “avoiding a bloody disaster” was the best the party could hope for. This statement overshadowed his party launch, making the front pages of every paper from the Daily Record to the Scotsman. Things never really took off and rather than attacking the positions of the other parties and promoting SNP policy. This was in contrast to the SDP launch where Campbell Martin openly stated that this election should be a public referendum on the illegal Iraq war. He commented that many young servicemen from Scotland had died in Iraq and the sooner Scotland voted SDP, became independent and got out of Iraq, the better(3).

Despite the open nature of the SDP campaign, the two parties spent as much time attacking each other and the issue over who was stronger over independence as they did in attacking the positions of the record of the government. As such the respective campaigns destroyed the hopes of each other of winning seats.

Despite not winning any seats, the SDP managed to finish second in several seats, including Banff and Buchan, which was now an SNP/SDP marginal, Angus, and in both seats in Dundee. This was treated as a triumph by the party who, if they repeated the performance in the 2007 Holyrood elections would gain eight seats.

Following the election, Swinney resigned prompting an SNP leadership contest. Following a bitter contest where recriminations followed over the causes of the defeat, Rosanna Cunningham won through against Alex Neill and Nicola Sturgeon. This was closer than it otherwise would have been when the former leader Alex Salmond came out in favour of Sturgeon, but despite it all Cunningham came through(4). Her promise was that she would revitalise the party, bring about change and if at all possible unify the forces of nationalism within Scotland. This was met with cries of the SNP shaking in fear from the SDP.

By contrast, Labour ignored the nationalist fight and concentrated on the UK question, writing off the SNP and SDP as an irrelevance in a Westminster context. In doing so, they were successful, gaining more votes by their appearance of unity and stability than would otherwise be expected by the results the UK as a whole, and the vote held impressively at over 40% of the vote.

The Liberal Democrats had most to celebrate, finishing second both in terms of seats and in terms of the popular vote. They had a popular leader in Charles Kennedy, were united, opposed to the Iraq war and showed that they wanted change without harming the social sensibilities of the Scots.

Amidst all the nationalist squabbling, the Conservatives ran a quiet campaign which was ignored by the general populace, despite Labours attacks, gaining their two seats almost by default at the collapse of the SNP vote. Murdo Frazer, the new member for Perth and North Perthshire admitted as much in the days following the result.

“Something radical must be done in an effort to regain our position in the Scottish political arena. Whilst we have done well in gaining two more seats than in 2001, we are still only one point ahead of our worst ever General Election performance. As such, we need a proper debate on the renewal and resurgence of Scottish Conservatism and Unionism, on how to rebuild the brand, so to speak.”(5)

This position was attacked by the leader of the Scottish Tories, David McLetchie, who stated that by winning three seats, the party was growing, albeit slowly and on its way back to the top in Scotland. Such divisions were maintained and hidden for the few months after the election

In October, a row broke out over expenses and it emerged that McLetchie had been claiming taxi fares as Parliamentary expenses. He resigned on the 31st October over the issue.

In the subsequent leadership election, Murdo Frazer became the new leader of the Conservative Group in the Scottish Parliament(6). Following his election, he went about establishing a committee on the future of the party in Scotland, which was to include varied figures such as Brian Monteith, Annabel Goldie and Michael Forsyth. Frazer himself would be the chair. The committee was to look at various Conservative parties around Europe and seek to draw influence and gain find a solution to the state the party had fallen into.

The findings were not released until January 12th. Of all the parties in Europe they looked at, the nearest they could find was the CSU in Bavaria. It was believed that by breaking from the main UK Conservative Party whilst allying with it in Westminster elections would enhance the Scottish credentials of the party. Various names were considered, but it was agreed after discussion the name used before the 1959 election, the Unionist Party of Scotland (7) would be used.

Following a vote of the party on the issue, the Scottish Unionist Party was reborn.

(1) John Swinneys former Westminster seat, increasing the pressure from his Scottish Parliament constituency.
(2) The collapse of the SNP vote(although less than 7% difference from otl) has led to a slightly higher vote for the other parties than in the 2005 General election of otl. The SDP gained from the SSP and the Greens as well as the SNP.
(3) Bill Wilson made claims about Blair being a war criminal within the Scottish Parliament, and as such I don't think this is much of a stretch.
(4) Salmond does not stand ittl, as it is obvious the task is far greater and the nationalists are in a far worse state, instead he backs Sturgeon who he sees as the best hope for the partty.
(5) Although he has never stated as much in public in otl, there were stories in the Scotsman, stating that he favoured such a move. With the SNP in disarray, the result is viewed as even worse than it did in otl.
(6) With his election to Westminster, his profile in the party has been increased, thus reversing the roles of otl where he went in as Goldies deputy. Instead, she becomes his deputy.
(7) A minor party named the Scottish Unionist Party does exist in otl, as in ttl. This leads to the name of the Unionist Party of Scotland. Think Labour Party/Socialist Labour Party.
 
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Hmm interesting, though if this new SDP continue in the centre left role we now have 3 parties (Lib Dem, SNP and SDP) fighting for the same voters (sans Independence of course, though the OTL SNP has shown a fairly strong ability to attract Lib Dem voters regardless of this) and of course if they are fighting against each other it can only weaken their cause.

Certainly Labour will obviously retain power in 2007, though with SNP / SDP fighting they might avoid the various scandals that lost them their leaders over the years inbetween?

Might eventually lead to a formal / informal Liberal coalition between the three? It certainly wouldn't take a big butterfly by any means for the Lib Dems to at least support the concept of a referendum, many do OTL including a few of the leadership challengers they've had over the years.
I would argue the SNP vote is not as simple as centre-left, otherwise you would have to include the Labour Party in your list.

The SNP do act as a quasi-Tory Party in former Tory seats, whilst acting like trots in areas like Govan. I agree though, the centre ground is cluttered.
 
I'm liking the resurgent Scottish Tories! :D. This means Cameron has a slightly larger pool to pick from for his Shadow Scottish Secretary- or will Cameron not become Party Leader at all? Would David Davis be more popular to Scots? Equally, if he or Cameron promote Rifkind (at this time seeking to reboot his political career) to a position involving Scotland, could this help the Tories?
 
I'm liking the resurgent Scottish Tories! :D. This means Cameron has a slightly larger pool to pick from for his Shadow Scottish Secretary- or will Cameron not become Party Leader at all? Would David Davis be more popular to Scots? Equally, if he or Cameron promote Rifkind (at this time seeking to reboot his political career) to a position involving Scotland, could this help the Tories?
Remember, the Scottish Unionists are now a seperate party in the manner that the CSU and CDU are seperate in Germany. I haven't decided over how and whether the Tories will allow the Scots a say in the leadership.

The Unionists will take the Tory whip though. As to Camerons shadow Scottish Secretary, I suspect the leader of the Unionists in the Commons would gain the position.

What do you think?
 
I would argue the SNP vote is not as simple as centre-left, otherwise you would have to include the Labour Party in your list.

The SNP do act as a quasi-Tory Party in former Tory seats, whilst acting like trots in areas like Govan. I agree though, the centre ground is cluttered.

True, but broadly as a policy platform, centre / centre left is probably about right.

I do like the idea of a Tory breakaway, it was something that occurred to me a few years ago as the best way for them to become electable.
 
The Scottish Unionist Party quickly gained the acceptance of the UK Conservatives, whose leader David Cameron openly stated that he believed that for Conservatism to survive in Scotland(1), it was obvious that change was required and that a mixture of dynamism and traditionalism would hopefully endear the Scots to the idea.

It was also agreed that the example of the CDU/CSU in Germany would be taken further. The two parties would unite at a Westminster level although being legally separate parties. A further agreement was made in that as the Unionists would be in a common faction with the Conservatives would have a say in the election of the leader of the leader of the two parties in Westminster.(2)

Over the first few months of the new party, Fraser and his team did well. They managed to gain support in the polls with a mixture of nationalism and right-wing populism, as shown by the fact they stated a commitment to cut the basic rate of income tax by a penny if they got elected in the next Holyrood election, as done by the Unionist Finance spokesman, Alex Johnstone. For the first time, the Scottish Parliament was beginning to divide along the old left/right axis.

2006 began with Charles Kennedy resigning as leader of the Liberal Democrats following revelations in the media over his problems with alcohol. This led to a leadership contest where Menzies Campbell became the new leader of the party. Seen as old and patrician, there were questions over his age and whether he was able to show the vigour and passion required to increase the liberals throughout Britain. He, himself was certain that he could do it.

The 2nd February saw tragedy strike the Scottish Socialist Party as Tommy Sheridan was run down by a drunk driver whilst he was on his way to attend a meeting in Possilpark in Glasgow(3). Whilst not killed, he was put into care at the Southern General Hospital in Glasgow. The result was paralysis which ended his political career. He resigned his Holyrood seat, to be taken by Jim McVicar, the candidate next on the SSP list.

As 2006 went on, news began to seem grim from the Labour Party with attacks from all sides coming to the fore.
During the year, Henry McLeish published his autobiography in which he praised elements of independence and attacked his own party on a few areas of policy, which was brought up by Cunningham and Fraser in Parliament, and the fact that the Li b Dems, who were suffering in the Scottish polls of guilt by association were openly considering refusing to back a renewal of the coalition deal with the Labour Party past the 2007 Holyrood election.

At the end of September, the polls showed Labour at 31%, the Unionists at 23%, the Lib Dems at 17%, the SNP at 10%, the SDP at 6.5%, the SSP at 5% and the Greens at 4.8%. If the results were replicated, the rainbow Assembly elected in 2003 would be even more colourful.

(1) The Unionist PoD is October 2005 by which point Cameron is Tory leader.
(2) Creating an internal Tory west-lothian question.
(3) Thus avoiding the News International trial which tore apart the SSP in otl.
 
23% for the Tory's? Surely it would take a little longer for them to reach the second most popular party in the polls?
 
23% for the Tory's? Surely it would take a little longer for them to reach the second most popular party in the polls?
Note, the combined SNP/SDP vote is sitting at 16.5%, in otl, with Alex Salmond back in charge, the SNP were touching 30%.

That vote had to go somewhere after the split, and given the split, the Tories have gained in several SNP areas, especially given the split with the UK party which takes away the objection that they are not a Scottish party.

Areas like Tayside and the North East, voters have reverted to type. Note though that I have only given them an extra 6-7% from thew polls of otl, as opposed to the 15-16% that the collapse of the SNP vote frees up.

I am not intending this as a Tory-wank though. As I said, I want to totally alter the Scottish party system. This will include a stronger right wing. Also, notice how well the SSP are doing, and that given Tommy Sheridan is out of the picture the SSP collapse of otl will not happen.

Already, potentially there will be seven signicant groups in the Scottish Parliament following the 2007 election. More may be on the way.....
 
Note, the combined SNP/SDP vote is sitting at 16.5%, in otl, with Alex Salmond back in charge, the SNP were touching 30%.

That vote had to go somewhere after the split, and given the split, the Tories have gained in several SNP areas, especially given the split with the UK party which takes away the objection that they are not a Scottish party.

Areas like Tayside and the North East, voters have reverted to type. Note though that I have only given them an extra 6-7% from thew polls of otl, as opposed to the 15-16% that the collapse of the SNP vote frees up.

I am not intending this as a Tory-wank though. As I said, I want to totally alter the Scottish party system. This will include a stronger right wing. Also, notice how well the SSP are doing, and that given Tommy Sheridan is out of the picture the SSP collapse of otl will not happen.

Already, potentially there will be seven signicant groups in the Scottish Parliament following the 2007 election. More may be on the way.....

Cool, I would suggest that the SSP are likely to fracture sooner or later, for one thing they will soon realise the things they are after can't be achieved, but secondly I know a few folk who were quite heavily involved in it, and seemed to be always on the edge of a rupture. It was the personality of Sheridan that was their driving force. I'd still think without him, even though he has avoided his scandalous exit that they'd suffer as they did in OTL; even though SSP and Solidarity split the socialist vote, it still went down. I'd think most of their supporters would drift back to Labour or perhaps the new SDP if they are leftist enough.

Lots of parties might help them avoid being completely squeezed out of the running by Labour and the SNP as in OTL however, that will be true for the Greens as well.
 
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Cool, I would suggest that the SSP are likely to fracture sooner or later, for one thing they will soon realise the things they are after can't be achieved, but secondly I know a few folk who were quite heavily involved in it, and seemed to be always on the edge of a rupture. It was the personality of Sheridan that was their driving force. I'd still think without him, even though he has avoided his scandalous exit that they'd suffer as they did in OTL; even though SSP and Solidarity split the socialist vote, it still went down. I'd think most of their supporters would drift back to Labour or perhaps the new SDP if they are leftist enough.

Lots of parties might help them avoid being completely squeezed out of the running by Labour and the SNP as in OTL however, that will be true for the Greens as well.
I know a few folk that defected from Labour to the SSP when Sheridan was at his peak, and whilst I agree that he was the driving force I dispute he was the only major player, Take Rosie Kane for example.
 
I know a few folk that defected from Labour to the SSP when Sheridan was at his peak, and whilst I agree that he was the driving force I dispute he was the only major player, Take Rosie Kane for example.

Was she the one that wanted to ban the use of the word NED? :rolleyes:
 
Was she the one that wanted to ban the use of the word NED? :rolleyes:
That aside, she had a column in the Daily Record, was a good public speaker and I feel could get the Labour/left onside. Also, remember the ned thing was SSP policy, not just hers.

They felt as it derived from uneducated, it was a sign of poor education.
 
Nicol Stephen, frustrated with the lack of progress made my the Lib Dems and also the declining poll numbers combined with the lack of time he was spending with his family decided to resign as leader of the Liberal Democrats in the Scottish Parliament.

In a bitter fight for the leadership, his post was taken by Ross Finnie, who argued that unless the party left the coalition, they would be tainted by it. He narrowly defeated Tavish Scott to the post.(1)

This led to the split in the coalition. Jack McConnell announced that it was his intention to carry on as the head of a minority administration. He did this in the ful knowledge that the SNP would not back a no-confidence motion given their collapse over the past few years.

Cathy Jamieson took over Stephens role as Deputy First Minister, with Wendy Alexander also returrning to the cabinet.

As 2007 came to light, the polls were as divided as they had ever been. Labour sat on 25%, the Unionists on 22%, the Lib Dems 11.5%, the SNP 10.7%, the SDP 10%, the SSP 9%, the Greens 7.4%

If that were translated into seats, the Parliament was almost certain to have seven groups within.

(1) A reverse of what happened in OTL of course....
 
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I'm watching you, Fletcharrrr.

Will read tonight and come back tommorow with comments.
 
Nice work. Keep it up!

Although I don’t think the Tories, even if Murdo Fraser wanted to do it, (which I don't think he would) would be interested in forming a fully independent party. I think much likely would be a sort of strongly federal structure - a bit like the Lib Dems I suppose.

Sort of Home Rule within the party. Any changes would have to be okayed by the main party too. I don’t think that would be a huge challenge though if the Scottish Tories wanted just autonomy, and Fraser was dealing with Cameron. Maybe Fraser ballots the membership on what their preference is, after thrashing things out with London?
 
Nice work. Keep it up!

Although I don’t think the Tories, even if Murdo Fraser wanted to do it, (which I don't think he would) would be interested in forming a fully independent party. I think much likely would be a sort of strongly federal structure - a bit like the Lib Dems I suppose.

Sort of Home Rule within the party. Any changes would have to be okayed by the main party too. I don’t think that would be a huge challenge though if the Scottish Tories wanted just autonomy, and Fraser was dealing with Cameron. Maybe Fraser ballots the membership on what their preference is, after thrashing things out with London?
link

Unfortunately, I cannot find a direct link, but I do remember Fraser allegedly supporting such a move.

To get the Tories back in Scotland in any way, two things woud be required.

1)a hit on SNP support as they have taken the traditional Scottish Unionist Gaulist theme.
2)a new identity. A name change and/or a complete split would do this. A federal structure may work, but I am unsure if it would go far enough.

Remember though, I am not writing this for a Tory revival. I'm simply playing around with this one, seeing how much chaos I can create within the bounds of possibility and thought I'd do it in the form of a timeline.
 
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