The Colossus : A Timeline

Taken from “The History of South Africa”
Edited by Lord Timothy Breech
Cape Town Publishing, Cape Town, South Africa; Copyright 2018
Used with permission…

…much has been said about Cecil Rhodes. To many he is the founder of South Africa and De Beers, serving as the first prime minister of the former and chairman on the latter. He orchestrated many incidents, annexations and used his incredible influence and money to steer. His victories in the Matabele Wars, the South African War and the Great War are seen by many to make him one of the Empire’s greatest heroes behind the likes of Clive, Wellesley, Nelson and Chamberlain. No doubt, his exploits prompted people to call him “the Colossus” until his death in 1923.

Despite all of these achievements, his flaws were vast. He instituted several reforms that disenfranchised native Africans, a problem that would grip South Africa for the next 30 years. His ego and vainness were unnaturally large and he is the only Prime Minister of South Africa to have a province named after him. He convinced himself he could do no wrong and to many his assumption was correct. He was always scheming and always careful before he advanced, but he inexorably reached for his evermore ambitious goals.

Whatever people may think of Rhodes, one thing is for sure. His achievements are vast. He founded De Beers and Anglo-American plc, which today control over 90% of the world’s diamond supply and 70% of the world’s gold supply respectively. He allowed for millions of disenfranchised Europeans to settle in his territories. His estate was worth over 10,000,000 pounds at his death, and he used every cent of it to make South Africa one of the most powerful countries today, which has helped the British Commonwealth extend its Pax Britannia into the 21st century.

Rhodes was once most famous for saying to another miner in Kimberly back even as far as 1887, "all of these stars... these vast worlds remain out of reach. If I could, I would annex other planets”. Little did he know how true that quote would come to be…

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Cape Town, South Africa
January 29, 1895

Leander Starr Jameson was shocked. His plan was flawless; he would march with 500 volunteers into the Transvaal and instigate an uprising. Transvaal would fall and Rhodes would become master of all Africa. The plan seemed too good to be true. Rhodes seemed to be content with the plan; nothing would seem to serve him more than to see Kruger deposed. But now, it seemed he had considered the risk and reward and decided that it wasn’t worth it. That fool, Alfred Beit agreed with him too.

“Cecil, I don’t understand. We could have Kruger deposed and the Transvaal under your control. It would be our greatest victory yet.” Jameson said, now exasperated. “I don’t understand why…”

“Look, I’m afraid Jan Hofmeyr may have begun to catch on to our plan.” Rhodes said quietly. Beit stood sternly, looking at Jameson as to increase the grave seriousness this matter included.

“But how… We made sure this was discussed secretly.” Jameson was suddenly shifty-eyed. This was very serious, indeed. Jan Hofmeyr was Rhodes’s biggest asset into becoming the leader of Cape colony and who, as an Afrikaner would be quite sympathetic to Transvaal and many Cape Afrikaners would join him. Rhodes would be sacked for sure if Hofmeyr found out and made that knowledge public.

“I know, I know. Unfortunately we need to scrap the plan. I propose a different plan, a plan where the money cannot be traced back to us.” Rhodes, although spooked from his close call with Hofmeyr, seemed to keep his mischievousness. The drive to become the personal overlord of Transvaal was too great, but Rhodes was no fool. He was still hatching a plan, and this time he would make it foolproof.

“I’m listening…” Jameson understood that his proposed raid had to be cancelled. Rhodes really wanted Kruger gone, but this temporary slip with Hofmeyr had cautioned him to be more careful. If Jameson wanted the glory of conquering land like in the Matabele Wars repeated, he would have to go along with Rhodes, who was his main financier.

“My plan may take longer but it a truly foolproof way to undermine Kruger’s government and his control over our business.” Rhodes said, as he edged in closer to tell Jameson. Beit, who was standing next to Rhodes, did the same.

“Well?” Jameson inquired annoyingly. With that, Rhodes began to quietly tell him his plans…

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An excerpt from “The South African War: Bravery and Unity”
By Dr. John Williams
Cape University Publishing, Cape Town, South Africa; Copyright 1998
Used with permission…

…the road leading up to the South African War was one of posturing and one-upping between two leading figures of their, Cecil Rhodes and Paul Kruger. Once gold was found in the Witwatersrand, the posturing began. Kruger began to tax the mining companies, controlled by Rhodes and his fellow Randlords. Rhodes responded by conquering Matabeleland in the north to find gold, much to the president of Transvaal’s dismay. Kruger, still somewhat unfazed, responded by denying the foreign residents of the Transvaal, or Uitlanders, the right to participate in the election and governmental process. Rhodes responded soon after with the Transvaal Reform Committee, which was an organization made by Randlords whose business was tied to this political situation. Kruger naturally didn’t listen to any of them, declaring them (correctly) simply a pawn of Rhodes’s regime in Cape Town.

What truly raised the tone and accelerated the road to conflict between Kruger and Rhodes was the Uitlander uprising of 1895. 200 white British gold miners armed with rifles tried to raid a police station used by the Boers to keep track of these white miners. They were quickly surrounded and over 100 of them were killed on the spot without the government’s order. The international outrage was supreme, but Kruger tried to point to Rhodes. Rhodes denied involvement and Kruger could find no evidence to the contrary.

The outrage that came with the 1895 uprising allowed Rhodes to purchase the rights to the Niassa Company. This company controlled the south coast of Mozambique, including Delgola Bay, which Kruger was using to bypass British shipping and by extension, tariffs. Rhodes added it to his territories of Rhodesia and renamed the city in the bay Port Chamberlain, after the colonial secretary of his day. It is known as that still today. Kruger and the Boer Republics were now completely surrounded. Kruger continued to try and gain the upper hand by stopping all gold from leaving the Transvaal. Kruger wanted to force Rhodes to call off his little game by denying him the very thing he was seeking. Conversely, this rash action worked against Kruger. First it angered the Uitlanders even more, making his control of the nation decline. Since almost all nations were on the Gold Standard at the time, it precipitated a huge economic dip, known as the Panic of 1896 almost immediately. This prompted more international hatred and local problems for Kruger.

Now with everything being done to posture and get ahead of each other in a cat-and-mouse way; a conflict was now beaconing. A conflict which would redefine South Africa…

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February 8th, 1896
Mafeking, South Africa

The fort appeared out of the haze of midday. It was quite a hot summer and the current situation only seemed to sizzle the already steaming atmosphere. The walls loomed ominously ahead as the train bound for it. Inside the railcars, the conditions were no cooler. The entire battalion of troops was sweltering as they sat and wait to arrive at their destination.

“It is a damn hot day. I mean Jesus!” Private Francis O’Brien yelled to his fellow troops over the clamor of the tracks as the train moved on with treacherous speed. This statement was met with a tired groan of agreement from most of the railcar.

“You’ve got that right.” Another Man said from across a few tables. “I haven’t been this warm since my post in Egypt or my post in Guyana.” He nodded as several men looked quite respectively at the man. He must’ve been in the Army for quite some time to have served in those far reaching areas of the World. Most of the men, including O’Brien were fairly new recruits from across the Empire.

“Damn it soldiers! For God sakes, Griping about your situation will help not one bit! I’ve come from somewhere even warmer. Khartoum and there we have to deal with the damn Mahdists!” The commander of O’Brien’s regiment, Colonel Herbert Kitchener walked in obviously irritated by the attitude on the Train Car. “The enemy we face here stands against the might of the British Empire and you sit here complaining about the weather! I’ll tell you, the vicious men across the border are not. They are preparing for war. We must do the same. England expects it.” He smiled as the cold room, created by his presence, warmed to the little joke. “I’m no Horatio Nelson but this war will be like none that the British army will have fought in a very long time and we must be ready for that. Our entire Army is focused here, ready for conflict. You must be ready as they are.” After speaking, Colonel Kitchener stepped off the car and at once a large sigh of relief emanated from the mass of soldiers.

“Wow, that Kitchener is quite the leader. I guess his reputation precedes him and he is certainly prepared for something.” O’Brien said to a fellow soldier as conversation and sound resumed within the street car.

“I could find no better hands to put our trust into. He is one of Britain’s most accomplished officers. But I don’t think we will ever go to war with them. This will all settle down soon.” The soldier responded, seeming reassured. O’Brien was not. They were here for a reason and it would be a big surprise if they were to return without some kind of confrontation.

“I can’t wait to get off this train and into that nice barracks!” Another soldier said. He was younger looking, with a hat and big grin on his face. He had an Aussie accent and was quite tan, leading O’Brien to assume. “I’ve heard that these quarters are amazing and there aren’t any duties at all. It’s a far cry from my post in Bombay. That was a work intensive setting!” This was met with a bit of a chuckle.

“Soon, hopefully” O’Brian responded. He leaned his head out of the window and looked towards the town. “Look, Mafeking looks to be about six or seven kilometers out and we’ll there in about five minutes.” O’Brien said, looking at the clock. He hoped that soldier was right as the Train continued onto their destination.

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November 1895
Pretoria, Transvaal

President Paul Kruger sat and looked out at the green landscape from his porch. He was looking towards the source of all his problems. It was, according to him the cesspool of violence and debauchery formerly known as Johannesburg. What was once a perfectly nice city was now poisoned with greed, drunkenness and the threat of English domination. He put his hands on his belly as he sat back. He had honestly done everything he could and he still managed to offend what his European allies, his last and best hope. He had even visited Europe ten years before and befriended the Kaiser and the Czar. They both even sympathized with his story and his people. But so much can change in such a short time. Kruger hated change, and peace by victory seemed so within reach. Now only a short time later, war seemed completely inevitable, but that was where Kruger drew the line. Kruger stood up, fuming. If they wanted war, he would not hold back. But he would make them hurt.

Britain was threatening him right now. British troops were watching from across the border, waiting for him and his people. So was Petrus Joubert. His incessant opposition frustrated him and his sympathy for the Uitlanders sickened him. He was too soft, too indecisive and slow. The President of the Transvaal had to lead, not fail, and Joubert was not the man for it. He had run against Kruger several times and soon, he feared he would lose his support base to that treasonous sympathizer. He already had to rig the ballot the last two elections and he will have to commit more fraud to stay in power. But it was imperative he stay in power, otherwise, he thought, Transvaal would be in ruins. The political situation as well as the foreign situation gave Kruger a terrible headache and he had no one to go to. Leander Jameson, the doctor used to help him with his headaches; even he was now an imperialist bastard in Cecil Rhodes’ caring hands. Nothing stood between Kruger, Rhodes and War between them except the question of who begins the conflict. Kruger certainly would like the defensive position, but striking an uppercut on that smug Cecil Rhodes and his cabal of Randlords would be immensely gratifying. Kruger would have to make a choice; one which would determine the nature of the conflict and therefore the outcome. A Decision, if made incorrectly could bring about a great victory or a crushing defeat. Kruger, after a long period of thought knew what he had to do….
 
Here is a map of South Africa detailing the situation around 1898. Enjoy!

Rhodes South Africa.PNG
 
From “The Election of 1896: The Rise of Radicalism in the United States”
By William Thomas Johnson
Cambridge University Publishing, Cambridge, UK Copyright 1987
Used with Permission…

…The election of 1896 became a juggernaut for a fusion between the up and coming Populist Party with the existing framework of the Democratic Party. The Populist Party, inhabited by Socialists, radical reformers and the working class, benefited from this new position and unlikely alliance. This movement was a long time coming however. Throughout the 1880’s and into the 1890’s, Labor struggles were growing increasingly violent. Even future revolutionary Eugene V. Debs led Railway workers in the Pullman Strike, in which he was almost killed. But ultimately, by 1896 the Populist and labor movement had found their golden boy, a young representative from Nebraska named William Jennings Bryan. The Republican Party chose the quite boring and nonetheless conservative candidate, William McKinley.

McKinley made it clear early on in the race that he would conduct a conservative front porch campaign that had dominated the aloof nature that defined the idea that campaigns were beneath good president elects. Bryan, seeing the Public’s dissatisfaction with that kind of government but also seeing McKinley’s paradoxical popularity; decided to go a huge trip across the Midwest, which would become a key region in the contest. His campaign speed and vitality was unprecedented at the time and many were attracted to Bryan’s powerful oratory skills and populist message. But his entire campaign was surrounded by one very important issue that would prove to be decisive in the election. Bryan advocated the removal of the Gold Standard as apart of the United States Currency system. The American public opinion and therefore the election were completely divided on the issue. But, during Bryan’s massive campaign, he was proved right of one of the incredible disadvantages of a Gold Standard. During 1896, a government conflict in the Transvaal, one which would ultimately lead to the South African War, brought production of the mineral to a complete halt. This caused the stock market on Wall Street to panic for the second time in only three years. Ultimately this quick economic downturn and its obvious connection to the gold standard led many in the Midwest to vote for Bryan. Bryan won, taking the West, South and Midwest with 56 percent of the popular vote. President Bryan’s victory marked a huge watershed moment in the movement of populism and the sudden end to the Northern, progressive forces of the Republican Party ….


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January 1897
Manhattan, United States

John Piermont Morgan sat, brooding. He was still looking at the front page of the New York Times. William Jennings Brian, President of the United States. If there was anything that made Morgan’s job harder, it was that statement. He had built his empire on the Gold Standard and trusts. He had even personally saved the US treasury with close cooperation from President Cleveland. He had put millions of dollars into McKinley’s campaign and that inept fool couldn’t even win an election outspending his opponent ten to one.

“Sir?” His butler called to him. Morgan sat up, looked at him standing in the doorway and nodded. “Mark Hanna is here to see you.”

“Ah, send him in.” Hanna was the chairman of the Republican Party and obviously the man he had pinned his hopes on. Now, with millions lost on a futile campaign and broader political issues; Hanna needed to be spoken to. The door opened and the Chairman walked in. He was hardly imposing today, most likely because he was running up and down New York having meetings with angry donors like this all the time.

“Mr. Morgan, Hello.” Hanna sat down with a sigh. “You cannot imagine the unpleasant day I am having.”

“Oh I can imagine it. In fact I’m well aware of the dire political straights you are now in.” Morgan sat up, now incensed. He would not give Hanna any sympathy whatsoever. He had lost too much to be understanding.

“I was hoping…” Hanna defensively responded, surprised and disappointed at Morgan’s venomous remarks. This certainty wasn’t the first meeting like this.

“I don’t care. I need reassurance. I need results. I need a plan to stop Bryan from enacting his radical socialist views. The last thing the economy needs is a new round of strikes happening without federal troops to break up the rabbles.” Morgan responded, now determined. “I also need reassurance that he will not remove the gold standard.”

“I’ll try. We have a slim minority in Congress right now, but we can try to pull some votes away in order to defeat any legislation he tries to pull through. I have a feeling we will be able to politically outmaneuver him. As for the strikes, you’ll have to either use state militias or hire your own agents. I cannot help you.” Hanna responded shrugging his shoulders. Morgan chuckled; in politics, there was no second place.

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London, United Kingdom
June 28th, 1897

Joseph Chamberlain has been preparing for this moment for past year. The Diamond Jubilee celebration was one thing to plan and host, but this colonial conference was also incredibly important if not more so. He got up and looked around the table. Sitting around the table were the leaders of the British Empire.

On his left were the leaders of Canada, headed by Wilfred Laurier. He was the golden leader of his country at the moment, even if he was the first Quebecois prime minister they have had. He had led Canada into a streak of immigration and strengthening Canada’s economy greatly. While Laurier was quite independent and somewhat socialist-minded, he was also a valuable asset and a very intelligent man. He also had very good relations to his Governor General as well, which was more than a lot of leaders in many colonies could say. Chamberlain was content and sure he could use Laurier’s talents for the Empire.

Next to them were the leaders of Australia. These men included Hugh Nelson, Premier of Queensland; George Reid, Premier of New South Wales; and George Turner, Premier of Victoria. Chamberlain knew that they would simply continue to bicker with each other over how they were going to unite as a commonwealth. After all they were just finished with a conference on that very issue. Australia would become untied at some point, but he could hardly expect anything forward thinking right now. Chamberlain didn’t expect much discourse there.

Across the table was the delegation from India. Lord Curzon was the new Viceroy, having just accepted the job only a few weeks before. While he may seem inexperienced but was one of the most foremost authorities on the Northwest Territories of Central Asia, now of paramount importance with the renewed rivalry with Russia. So hopefully he won’t get full of himself.

The final delegation to his right was the South African delegation headed by Prime Minister Cecil Rhodes. His delegation included the likes of Barney Barnato, Alfred Beit, and several other ‘Randlords’, all of whom all had a very large share in the diamond and gold mining business. They were receiving the lion’s share of the attention not because of their wealth but rather the state of high tension between the Cape colony and the Boer republics to the north. As much as anyone, Chamberlain cheered Rhodes on and even provided aid to him, for he was serving queen and country down in South Africa.

Chamberlain, as he drew his eyes beck towards the center of the table, began to speak.
“Welcome Gentleman….”

----------------------

An excerpt from “Imperial Conferences and the Foundation of the Commonwealth”
By: Tim Wilcox Jr.
London Publishing, London UK; Copyright 1998
Used with permission…

…The Colonial Conference of 1897 coincided with the celebration of Queen Victoria’s Diamond Jubilee and was celebrated all around the British Empire. Thousands flocked to celebrate her 60th year on the throne in a huge procession going down the Mall. The Victoria Memorial still stands as a testament this huge event, which would be one of the Queen’s last.

As well as thousands of ordinary citizens coming to honor Queen Victoria, many of the leaders of the various British possessions came to not only to celebrate, but also to conduct business relating to them and the Crown. While this was not the first of these Colonial Conferences (Two occurred before it, in 1887 and 1892), this was by far the largest and provided the most impetus for further formalizing these meetings as well.

By far the most important point discussed during this meeting was the case for the invasion of the Transvaal, made by Cecil Rhodes and his delegation from the Cape Colony. Interestingly enough, a strong case was made by Jan Hofmeyr and his associate Jan Smuts about the invasion of Transvaal, both of whom were Afrikaners of Cape descent. They argued that President Kruger was leading the Boers down an increasingly radical path and invasion is the only way for the Boers to be returned to responsible government. This detracted many of Rhodes’s critics, who dismissed it as simply an exercise of greed and Imperialism. But many, including George T. Goldie and Joe Chamberlain among them, agreed that Rhodes’s course of action and an increased troop presence in South Africa is necessary in case the situation grows to one where peace is no longer an option. This decision would be one of great importance when the South African war broke out a year later.

Several other major decisions made during that time were that of the Australian delegation to agree that they would form a confederation by the turn of the century…

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From “On This Day…” an Article in the Daily Mail
By Peter Willingham
Associated Newspapers Press, London, UK; Copyright 1997
Used with Permission…

…On this day one hundred years ago, in 1897, commandos from the Royal Marines led an expedition to Benin City in what was then the Kingdom of Benin. They burst into the city and under the command of Sir Harry Rawson, looted and burnt the city to the ground. They stole thousands of precious artifacts, some of which are still on display in Museums all across the Commonwealth. The Expedition destroyed the Kingdom of Benin and formed the basis for the colonial possession of Nigeria, as well a setting the border between British and French possessions there. Ultimately, the Marines killed over five thousand men, women and children.

The mastermind behind this horrendous act was Sir George Goldie, the owner and administrator of the Royal Niger Company. He acted in conjunction with Lord Salisbury and with the funding of Cecil Rhodes, who paid considerable attention to the Company after meeting at the colonial conference that summer. It remains as one of Britain’s darker imperial days. King George IV apologized for the incident on behalf of the Commonwealth in 1978 to the President of Nigeria….
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Comments?
 
Any comments? I've been wondering about Byran's policies and I was hoping to see what you all think a Bryan presidency could be?
 
Interesting so far. Can't say I know much about Byrans but I'm guessing his policies won't do the US much good?
 
Interesting although I'm curious if you're going to do that Ghandi angle that you did in the previous incarnation (& thus racial harmony, etc.)
 
Interesting although I'm curious if you're going to do that Ghandi angle that you did in the previous incarnation (& thus racial harmony, etc.)
I doubt it.
The whole 'disenfranching Blacks, which would plague South Africa for the next 30 years' thing makes me doubt it.
Also, it was the second last incarnation that had Gandhi.:D
 
Re the map;
So the POD is Britain getting East Africa instead of Germany, and then Invading Mozambique.

Not Grokking your Election of 1896. I think you are to focused on todays politics.
At the turn of the century [20th] Republicans were the Party of Lincoln, Blacks and working class.
Democrats were the Party of the Establishment

Bryan would not accept the annexation of Hawaii
If Bryan did get his Gold Standard Bill thru Congress, It would be put down by the Supremes.
The US Constitution defines Money as Gold & Silver. In the Second Republic, the Supremes would have upheld this.
 
I doubt it.
The whole 'disenfranching Blacks, which would plague South Africa for the next 30 years' thing makes me doubt it.
Also, it was the second last incarnation that had Gandhi.:D

That's what I was assuming, but G Bone bet me to the question. Pity as it made for a more successful timeline. However as Lord I says it doesn't sound like it from the reference. Didn't realise I had missed an intervening version of the TL through.

Steve
 
Re the map;
So the POD is Britain getting East Africa instead of Germany, and then Invading Mozambique.

Not Grokking your Election of 1896. I think you are to focused on todays politics.
At the turn of the century [20th] Republicans were the Party of Lincoln, Blacks and working class.
Democrats were the Party of the Establishment

Bryan would not accept the annexation of Hawaii
If Bryan did get his Gold Standard Bill thru Congress, It would be put down by the Supremes.
The US Constitution defines Money as Gold & Silver. In the Second Republic, the Supremes would have upheld this.

I agree with most of what you had to say about a Bryan Presidency. But I don't think you know about the populist movement of the early 1890's. It was rebelling against 30 years of Republican presidents. Thats an establishment. Also, McKinely's campaign was very much supported by Wall Street and trusts provided much of the Republicans monetary support. Bryan was 30, ran a grass roots campaign, and was quite an idealist and anti-imperialist. But his administration certianly will be different than he wants it to be.

Also that isn't the POD for the timeline. The POD is that Cecil Rhodes never goes through with the ill-fated Jameson Raid, which ruining his career and forcing him into an early retirement. Germany still owns East Africa.

I doubt it.
The whole 'disenfranching Blacks, which would plague South Africa for the next 30 years' thing makes me doubt it.
Also, it was the second last incarnation that had Gandhi.:D

Yeah, the entire idea that Rhodes would be open to racial equality seemed good when you campare him to some Transvaal Afrikaners, but I've done a lot of reading on the man and he implicitly wrote this in 1889.

"I have considered the existence of God and decided there is an even chance the He exists. If he does exist, He must be must be working out a plan. Therefore, if I am to serve God, I must find His plan… First, look at the race God has chosen to be His divine instrument of creation. Unquestionably, that is the white race. Whites have clearly come out on top… in the struggle for existence and achieved the highest standard of human perfection. Therefore, I shall devote the rest of my life to God’s purpose and help him make the world English." -Cecil Rhodes

Yeah, he was definity a believer in racial superiority. Not too friendly to any other races.

Interesting although I'm curious if you're going to do that Ghandi angle that you did in the previous incarnation (& thus racial harmony, etc.)

Gandhi will not befriend Cecil Rhodes, citing the above reference as a reason. This TL will have Gandhi end up as very different person that who was in OTL and this changes India.
 
Bryan won, taking the West, South and Midwest with 56 percent of the popular vote. President Bryan’s victory marked a huge watershed moment in the movement of populism and the sudden end to the Northern, progressive forces of the Republican Party ….

Well I doubt he would get 56% of the vote, but let's say he does.

The Northern progressives win, not lose. Bryan is beholden to the South, and is at least as racist as Woodrow Wilson (for good reason: he needs the South).

Bryan further will almost certainly alienate the Populists as he did IOTL, and his popularity will be fleeting. Cross of Gold speech aside Congress will not pass something dumping the Gold Standard, and in all likelihood the Supreme Court would reject any attempt to remove the USA from the Gold Standard.

What would a Bryan Presidency look like?

War with Spain, but no annexation of the Philippine's (I imagine Japan will seize them in couple of decades).

A Congress that probably despises him after the fight over gold.

A probable push in support of religion.

Hawaii? Bryan might well oppose annexing them as well, which leaves them to the UK or Japan.

Tariffs?

Civil Service administration?



I imagine that Teddy Roosevelt crushes Bryan in 1904 (note that the OTL 1896 introduction of advanced campaign advertising will still be to the Republican's benefit in 1904) and cruises on for two or three terms. Mark Hanna dies that year, and that leaves the Republican Party with no one from the conservative faction to stop the progressive faction from winning.
 
Well I doubt he would get 56% of the vote, but let's say he does.

The Northern progressives win, not lose. Bryan is beholden to the South, and is at least as racist as Woodrow Wilson (for good reason: he needs the South).

Bryan further will almost certainly alienate the Populists as he did IOTL, and his popularity will be fleeting. Cross of Gold speech aside Congress will not pass something dumping the Gold Standard, and in all likelihood the Supreme Court would reject any attempt to remove the USA from the Gold Standard.

What would a Bryan Presidency look like?

War with Spain, but no annexation of the Philippine's (I imagine Japan will seize them in couple of decades).

A Congress that probably despises him after the fight over gold.

A probable push in support of religion.

Hawaii? Bryan might well oppose annexing them as well, which leaves them to the UK or Japan.

Tariffs?

Civil Service administration?

If the economy is in the shit enough during the presidential run, instead of recovering in OTL; Bryan could win a lot of the Midwest votes. I'd have to do some calibration and adding up of state-to-state votes in order to get a solid percentage. But it will definitively give Bryan the win.

He certainly is beholden to the South and will be covered either next post or a few posts from now. And the end for progressive, Republican forces is a preview to show what will come in the timeline. A few more posts on the changing political spectrum in the United States will help clarify things.

As to the other things; they seem to be probable for a Bryan Administration. His foreign policy will be significantly different than McKinley's OTL policies.

I imagine that Teddy Roosevelt crushes Bryan in 1904 (note that the OTL 1896 introduction of advanced campaign advertising will still be to the Republican's benefit in 1904) and cruises on for two or three terms. Mark Hanna dies that year, and that leaves the Republican Party with no one from the conservative faction to stop the progressive faction from winning.

Hanna will certainly be influential until then. His faction (The one supported by the Rockefeller's and Wall Street), was very conservative and would have considerable more support within the party with a non-Republican trying to trust bust now. Kind of like "only Nixon could go to China" but with stemming corporate greed.

Also, Roosevelt got so popular with the people by stealing the democrats thunder for workers rights. with Bryan and the democrats actively trying to trust bust, it will strengthen the core, conservative 'machine' of the Republican Party, thereby massively reducing Teddy's chances at becoming president.
 
Hanna will certainly be influential until then. His faction (The one supported by the Rockefeller's and Wall Street), was very conservative and would have considerable more support within the party with a non-Republican trying to trust bust now. Kind of like "only Nixon could go to China" but with stemming corporate greed.

Also, Roosevelt got so popular with the people by stealing the democrats thunder for workers rights. with Bryan and the democrats actively trying to trust bust, it will strengthen the core, conservative 'machine' of the Republican Party, thereby massively reducing Teddy's chances at becoming president.

Yeah, but Bryan will also drive the black vote away from the Democratic Party, and his policies aren't going to keep the Midwest conservatives on-board—his 1896 win with them is a strictly temporary populist type win.

Come 1904 when the Republicans are thinking about putting up a conservative against (quite probably still Bryan, since he's still young) do they reconsider and go with a popular reform type Governor of the state with the most electoral votes?

Or do they nominate their third solid conservative failure in a row?

That said a new Progressive Party led by Teddy Roosevelt could do well. The Republicans are stuck with a conservative base, and the Democratic Party has swung left on economics, conservative on social issues, and probably somewhat isolationist (as are the Republicans, I imagine).

That leaves a pretty big hole for an economically moderate to conservative, socially liberal/libertarian, and internationalist on foreign policy party.
 
Yeah, but Bryan will also drive the black vote away from the Democratic Party, and his policies aren't going to keep the Midwest conservatives on-board—his 1896 win with them is a strictly temporary populist type win.

Come 1904 when the Republicans are thinking about putting up a conservative against (quite probably still Bryan, since he's still young) do they reconsider and go with a popular reform type Governor of the state with the most electoral votes?

Or do they nominate their third solid conservative failure in a row?

That said a new Progressive Party led by Teddy Roosevelt could do well. The Republicans are stuck with a conservative base, and the Democratic Party has swung left on economics, conservative on social issues, and probably somewhat isolationist (as are the Republicans, I imagine).

That leaves a pretty big hole for an economically moderate to conservative, socially liberal/libertarian, and internationalist on foreign policy party.

Seems to be a valid point, but the Democrats put Bryan up three times in a row and he seen as a failure. I see your arguments as valid, but i'd like to post on the differences that will spring up. i'll post on the United States soon, probably on Friday or Saturday.
 
An excerpt from “The Great War, Volume 1: Casus Belli”
By William Cookenbacker
Bremen Publishing, Vancouver, Canada; Copyright 2015
Used with permission…

….The events leading up to the fierce Anglo-French rivalry that was to come in the early 1900’s first started with their mutual colonial ambitions in North Africa. The Cape-To-Cairo plan which Prime Minister and political force Cecil Rhodes advocated required a land connection between Egypt and British East Africa. This was supported by the colonial secretary and British Parliament and was defined in the Berlin Conference. France, however, had different ideas. They wanted to set up complete control over the trade routes of the northern Sahara desert. They wanted to connect Djibouti to the holding in Western Africa. This naturally began a conflict between the French and British over the fate of North Africa.

The original argument came when Britain took control of Egypt in 1882. France could’ve taken joint control with the British but declined. Many conservatives within the French government were quite regretful of that decision and vowed to correct it. Once the British occupied Sudan in 1891, they decided that it would be the perfect time to strike.

An expedition was formed by Major Jean-Baptiste Marchand to establish a protectorate in southern Sudan. Marchand also collaborated with Marquis Bonchamps, another key player in the Scramble for Africa, who had a garrison stationed in Djibouti. An army of 500 men were assembled under his command in Brazzaville and they trekked for over seven hundred kilometers in order to reach their destination. They arrived at the severely understaffed British garrison in Fashoda on January 28th, 1898…

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February 12th, 1898
Fashoda, Sudan

Major Marchand was beside himself. He had expected to come and get stiff resistance but he received none at all. Colonel Kitchener, who was the leader of the British Army in this area, was now in South Africa and was no threat to him. He had free reign here and he quickly captured the very small fleet. But he knew his incredible luck would get him everything he wanted.

“Private, front and center! Now!” He called to a soldier who had been tending to a horse on the other end of the fort. The man ran over, looking nervous. “I need you to send word for Bonchamps. See how far along he has come on his journey here. See if you can some Abyssinian natives. Menelik will be helpful.” Marchand said.

“Yes, sir. Right away sir!” The Private responded, now moving quickly off towards the camp, to likely gather up a few others in order to make the short horse ride to the Abyssinia.

Marchand chuckled to himself. Menelik II of Ethiopia was quite lucky; he had been able to decisively defeat a force of ragtag Italians at Adowa only two years before. Menelik, who was now somewhat confident to trust the European powers, could not fathom the immense and downright nasty backstabbing that went on across this Dark Continent. Marchand knew, if no British ships came and Bonchamps could arrive with his reinforcements, He could take control of the entire south of the Nile and there was nothing the British government could do about it. Then, his armies could turn and crush Menelik later. Bonchamps himself was quite good at backstabbing; being one of the key members of the Stairs expedition which stole Katanga away from the grubby British fingers. Now he could take more lands away from Britain, for the glory of the Third Republic…

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An excerpt from “The Scramble for Africa”
By James Baker Jr.
Thomas Publishing, Winnipeg, Canada; Copyright 1992
Used with permission…

…ultimately the British Colonial Secretary was forced to recognize French suzerainty over the Sudan after all diplomacy was exhausted. The southernmost border between British Egypt and French Sudan was placed just south of Khartoum; at the conjunction of the White and Blue tributaries of the Nile river. Chamberlain was infuriated at this prospect. He had pushed for British control of all of Eastern Africa for the last twenty years and now their former allies had underhandedly stolen one of their colonies. The relations only deteriorated further when the French invaded Abyssinia soon after, crushing Menelik’s army only two years after his victory at Adowa.

The French were going to annex all of Abyssinia, but British and German intervention only allowed France to take the northern area. Menelik was relieved that his country would not suffer as the countless African states had in the past fifty years. Nevertheless, France had accomplished its goal of Dakar to Djibouti and it had a monopoly on all Trans-Saharan trade allowing France to begin making a lot more money. However, France’s reckless pursuit of that colonialist ambition allowed Britain to gain two very important allies…

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May 21st, 1899
London, United Kingdom

Prince Bernhard Heinrich Karl Martin von Bülow walked out of the door of the Parliament building on Westminster and breathed in the damp spring air of London. He smiled as he started down the steps to get to the street ahead of him. He had just succeeded in his mentor, former Chancellor Bismarck’s goals. His new ironclad alliance with the British would give Germany ‘a place in the sun’ as well as allowing them to deal with the growing two-front problem presented by the French and Russian menaces.

This agreement was not one sided, not at all. Germany decided to agree to keep the Kaiserliche Marine to one-third the size of the Royal Navy. Alfred von Tirpitz, the head of the Kaiserliche Marine would not be happy, but the he had convinced the Kaiser to focus on Germany’s strengths to face the growing threats that was enclosing them on the continent. Chamberlain, with whom he had made the agreement, has made a guarantee to side with Germany on colonial disputes and agree to allow a German colonial empire. What truly tipped the scales and made Bülow want to sign the treaty was a concrete example of an alliance with the British. Cecil Rhodes had given a piece of northern Mozambique to German East Africa in a show of good faith and support. But that was not the only thing that convinced him. The German government was unsure weather or not the British would be of any help when warring against the lumbering giant in Europe; Russia. When Bülow had raised these concerns to Chamberlain, he had responded with a special envoy, Lord Curzon, the new Viceroy of India. That man was very mistrustful of the Russians and had extensive dealings in the Northwest Frontier Provinces. He also was heavily involved in the new Afghan regime and was beginning to contemplate an intervention in Tibet. He personally promised that if war with Russia came, he could throw the entire weight of British India at their woefully under garrisoned Central Asian holdings.

As Bülow plopped himself into the carriage, the thought of hundreds of thousands of British Indian troops assembling to take down the Russian horde made him chuckle to himself. This new alliance would allow the German Empire to grow immensely. He signaled for the driver to begin towards the seaport. He began to wonder how he will word his speech for the public unveiling of this new treaty tommorow. Something powerful, something moving, something that will instill a pride in the German people…

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May 21st, 1899
London, United Kingdom

Prince Bernhard Heinrich Karl Martin von Bülow walked out of the door of the Parliament building on Westminster and breathed in the damp spring air of London. He smiled as he started down the steps to get to the street ahead of him. He had just succeeded in his mentor, former Chancellor Bismarck’s goals. His new ironclad alliance with the British would give Germany ‘a place in the sun’ as well as allowing them to deal with the growing two-front problem presented by the French and Russian menaces.

This agreement was not one sided, not at all. Germany decided to agree to keep the Kaiserliche Marine to one-third the size of the Royal Navy. Alfred von Tirpitz, the head of the Kaiserliche Marine would not be happy, but the he had convinced the Kaiser to focus on Germany’s strengths to face the growing threats that was enclosing them on the continent. Chamberlain, with whom he had made the agreement, has made a guarantee to side with Germany on colonial disputes and agree to allow a German colonial empire. What truly tipped the scales and made Bülow want to sign the treaty was a concrete example of an alliance with the British. Cecil Rhodes had given a piece of northern Mozambique to German East Africa in a show of good faith and support. But that was not the only thing that convinced him. The German government was unsure weather or not the British would be of any help when warring against the lumbering giant in Europe; Russia. When Bülow had raised these concerns to Chamberlain, he had responded with a special envoy, Lord Curzon, the new Viceroy of India. That man was very mistrustful of the Russians and had extensive dealings in the Northwest Frontier Provinces. He also was heavily involved in the new Afghan regime and was beginning to contemplate an intervention in Tibet. He personally promised that if war with Russia came, he could throw the entire weight of British India at their woefully under garrisoned Central Asian holdings.

As Bülow plopped himself into the carriage, the thought of hundreds of thousands of British Indian troops assembling to take down the Russian horde made him chuckle to himself. This new alliance would allow the German Empire to grow immensely. He signaled for the driver to begin towards the seaport. He began to wonder how he will word his speech for the public unveiling of this new treaty tommorow. Something powerful, something moving, something that will instill a pride in the German people…

Can't wait to see where this goes :)
 
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