The Collaborative Central Powers TL?
- Thread starter Faeelin
- Start date
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
I don't see why not, but it's still a tough slog to Istanbul. The issue in 1918 is that the entire military and its strategic reserves were committed to other fronts - there just weren't any troops available to defend Istanbul. Earlier in the war there were sufficient troops to defend Thrace and Istanbul.
If the Allies coordinate an attack on Istanbul with other attacks (Caucasus, maybe Iraq and Palestine though doubtful) it could force the Ottomans to divert troops. Obviously Istanbul will be the priority for the Turks, but if the Allies can get Bulgaria in the war the job of bashing through the Turkish lines is made alot easier. And with armies invading Thrace from the north, the Turks will have to consider pulling away more troops from Gallipoli- making a naval breakthrough there more and more likely.
A negative for the Allies here is that the chance of Greece joining them has gotten smaller, and they might even decide to join the CP and get some of Macedonia.
And since we want the CPs to win, a divided attack with poor logistics will turn out worse than Gallipoli...something that we want, after all!
Do all the CPs have to win, though? The main goal of this seems to be a German victory, and besides most conquered Ottoman land would probably be given up in the end for better terms in Europe.
Such an attack (unless Greece has joined the war and blocks up the Aegean) seems more likely to succeed than OTL Gallipoli, since there will be more forces, better logistics, and above all more determination to win and open up that route to Russia.
Wha-huh?
Where are more forces coming from? More troops need to be in France, since France is about to fall without Paris and a huge portion of its industry.
Better logistics? From where? Bulgaria? As AHP has said, there is still a huge reserve of troops available to the Ottomans, since this is 1915, not 1918.
More determination means little, especially with respect to poor planning. Instead of focusing on breaking through the Straits, now attention will be divided between Gallipolli and Thrace. This could be a net drain on the Allies.
Besides, we don't want the route to Russia to be opened! We want a CP victory, and it does not appear that the majority wants to see the Ottoman Empire dismantled.
A worse-than-Gallipolli offensive will help the CPs win the war...it will still be slow, but since most people want Britain humbled, a worse defeat is a good thing, for the timeline.
Fine, fine... My main issue was just that we can't have everything go good for the CP. So how will this worse Gallipoli play out? If Bulgaria does attack Thrace, I still think it would be a good idea to have Greece join the CP- they have alot to gain. And as the land attack towards Istanbul falters, there will be pressure for a hasty & unorganised Gallipoli- the ANZACs will suffer even more casualties than OTL, and the RN will be humbled. Britain's main priority in the war will just be to defend its Middle Eastern possessions, so I doubt there will be any advances into Mesopotamia and Palestine like OTL. There will also be no Arab Revolt, since Hussein will see that Britain is in no position to help. Who knows, if he plays his cards right maybe he could get post-war help from the Turks against Ibn Saud?
Of course, this all assumes that we're going with the Schlieffen Plan works POD, which doesn't seem to be agreed upon yet. I still rather like the idea of Germany going easy...
Of course, this all assumes that we're going with the Schlieffen Plan works POD, which doesn't seem to be agreed upon yet. I still rather like the idea of Germany going easy...
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Ottoman diplomacy prior to the war was heavily aimed at friendship with Bulgaria - the Ottomans even ceded territory to them to cement a friendship treaty. With Macedonia in Serb hands, the chances of Bulgaria having even the slightest interest in attacking the Ottomans is slightly less than the sun going out tomorrow. What on God's Green Earth would Bulgaria have to gain from such a thing?
Everything Bulgaria wants is in Serbia and Greece.
Everything Bulgaria wants is in Serbia and Greece.
Constantinople and Adrianople.
However, the real ENEMY for Bulgaria is clearly Serbia: the defeat of 1913 is quite hard to forget. Therefore once Serbia is on the Entente side, Bulgaria will back the other guys (as happened in OTL).
I tried an unlikely scenario (still not as unlikely as the Schlieffen plan working
) to do something better than the Gallipoli slaughter.Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Constantinople and Adrianople.
However, the real ENEMY for Bulgaria is clearly Serbia: the defeat of 1913 is quite hard to forget. Therefore once Serbia is on the Entente side, Bulgaria will back the other guys (as happened in OTL).
I tried an unlikely scenario (still not as unlikely as the Schlieffen plan working
Edirne and Istanbul weren't really "national" targets, they just suddenly became or seemed opportunistically attainable due to unexpected success in the Balkan Wars. Edirne was perhaps a possible long-term possibility but any realistic Bulgarian leader knew there was no chance of Bulgaria being allowed to keep Istanbul.
In any case, these would have been considered .000001% as important as Macedonia, which they'd been struggling for since 1878 and was considered an integral part of the Bulgarian nation.
I think the CPs would get beaten on the periphery, they can't have everything their own way. A better start in France, and sustained success in Russia will butterfly changes of priority in all powers. The encirclment of Lanzerac is almost ASB, I don't know if Bulow was even commanding both armies in the crucial days, does anyone have a copy of Corelli Barnett's 'The Swordbearers' to confirm?
Can you imagine anyone in the area saying "I don't want Constantinople"?
Can you imagine a Great Britain in sufferance on the western front not having the gall of offering Bulgaria the ultimate prize? Maybe together with a slice of macedonia extracted from a Serbia which is fighting for her life.
Better yet: everything looks gloom for the Entente in the autumn 1914: the western front is tottering, the Russian has been trashed at Tannenberg and the Masurian Lakes. The Ottomans waver, but there is a feeling that they might decide for the Central Powers, closing that necessary lifeline for Russia.
Maybe Churchill will have it in hisown way in TTL too, and go on with the doomed Gallipoli landing, but I believe it's not so farfetched to imagine a scenario where the push against Constantinople comes from the west and the north. It might fail too, but the Ottoman forces don't have a lot of strategic depth here.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Isn't it better to expend the rather minimal effort that would have been necessary to keep the Ottomans out than alienate Greece, the Ottomans, and Russia by offering Bulgaria Istanbul? And maybe provoke uprisings in Britain's Muslim domains?
It's true that Istanbul lacks strategic depth, but it's still a very tough nut, and in 1914 the mobiliation plan placed the whole army in the area - an attack from Bulgaria would fail badly, something the Bulgarians are well aware of, having just tried it a year before, even if the British aren't.
It's true that Istanbul lacks strategic depth, but it's still a very tough nut, and in 1914 the mobiliation plan placed the whole army in the area - an attack from Bulgaria would fail badly, something the Bulgarians are well aware of, having just tried it a year before, even if the British aren't.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Nobody is arguing that everything should all go in favor of the CP, just that if the CP win, members of the CP having to give up large chunks of their metropolitan possessions is simply off the table. Syria and Mesopotamia are not Ottoman colonies like Tanganyika is to Germany, they are integral parts of the nation, with parliamentary representation, ministers, etc. It would be like in OTL if when the armistice was declared, Germany got to keep all the parts of France and Belgium they had under occupation. It's just not going to happen.
All true, which is why I earlier said that UK will do whatever they can to keep OE neutral, and the Straits open. But if OE enters the war on the side of the CPs, they'll have to do something, or accept defeat. Alienating Greece is the least of their worries, consdering how they browbeated them in OTL WW1, Russia is not in a position to complain (yet), and the Ottomans are the enemy; not to mention that Constantinople's fate will be mentioned in one of those nice secret treaties the Powers were so fond of (and I'd not be overly surprised if treaties with different countries promised different things
).Finally, one thing is to stage a push toward Constantinople from Thrace, and another is to have the city fall.
Bear with me on this, but is this a way to bounce Italy into the war on the CP side?
IOTL, Britain demanded in 1916 that Portugal intern German ships. If we have this happen in 1914, which would seem logical enough, bouncing Portugal into the war, Germany could dangle the carrot of Portugal's colonies before Italy- after all, the Portuguese Republic at this point is weak and Germany could probably overrun northern Mozambique at least. This could also have the added effect of forcing a diversion of ANZAC troops to South Africa.
I'm not saying this is a POD for a CP victory, but it could help.
IOTL, Britain demanded in 1916 that Portugal intern German ships. If we have this happen in 1914, which would seem logical enough, bouncing Portugal into the war, Germany could dangle the carrot of Portugal's colonies before Italy- after all, the Portuguese Republic at this point is weak and Germany could probably overrun northern Mozambique at least. This could also have the added effect of forcing a diversion of ANZAC troops to South Africa.
I'm not saying this is a POD for a CP victory, but it could help.
No need to go too far: Nice, Savoy and Tunis are already a suitable enticement, in particular if A-H adds Trentino as down-payment
Not to mention that if the war goes well also Malta could be added
Not to mention that if the war goes well also Malta could be added
i agree with this statement however niether to CP nor the entente nessesaraly needs to know this before hand, and further more didn't the schlieffen plan incloud some italian divisions to be used some where?
Yes, the original plan were to have the Italians go for Alsace. Obviously this part of the plan was modified
. This was based on the pre-WW1 alliance, which included Italy as well as RomaniaAlso, ITTL I assume that the French still stick to Plan XVII per OTL, as opposed to a more defensive posture.
Again, the Germans should not divert so many troops to the Eastern Front---the Russians will (or at least did IOTL) face defeat at Tannenberg anyway.