Michael E Johnson
Banned
If there is a future worldwide conflict (cold or hot) in TL-191 who are the likely allies and combatants?
The Cold War/Third Great War in TL-191
- Thread starter Michael E Johnson
- Start date
There are some definate possibilities:
The USA vs. Japan; the most definate possible future major conflict; there's plenty of bad blood remaining between the USA and Japan, since they've fought three wars against each other.
However, the USA, other than possible insurgencies in former Canada and the former CSA, wouldn't be distracted by another major power. I'd say that a major point of contention between the two sides would be Russian Alaska, with President Dewey warning the Japanese not to touch Alaska and the Aleutian Islands if they move north against the Russians in Siberia, which In At The Death seemed to portray, since the Japanese were publically warning the Russians to vacate several of their Siberian provinces.
Now, the USA has the superbomb. You can bet that the Japanese will be racing non-stop to build their own bomb, even if the USA and the Germans warn them against making one. The USA will be investing heavily in ballistic missles anyways (to compete with Germany, with help from the former Confederate scientists from Lexington and Huntsville).
But I'd say they have a decent chance of getting a superbomb by the 1960s. If the USA and the Japanese haven't gone to war by then (and they probably won't, since the USA will be busy incorporating the former CSA and Canada into the Union), they'll certainly be a fully-fledged Cold War.
The USA vs. Germany; at first glance, the two strongest remaining nations in the world seem likely to get into some kind of Cold War with each other, but the problem with that is that both countries really don't have anything to fight about. Not to mention the Germans will still have a surviving Russia to worry about, while the USA has bigger concerns with Japan. So in the end the Germans and Americans, while racing to beat each other to get the first hydrogen bombs, launch the first satellites, put the first man into space, ect., they won't be at each other's throats.
Of course, the USA will probably annoy the Germans with concerns about human rights violations in Mittelafrika (especially in the Congo), but in the end, they don't have anything to go to war about, or even oppose each other as dramatically as the USA and USSR did to each other as IOTL.
The USA vs. Brazil; the Empire of Brazil will be a major secondary power in the world, and will be the USA's biggest rival in the Western Hemisphere. Chances are they'll get into a few proxy wars in Colombia or Venezuela to install pro-US or pro-Brazillian governments in Bogota or Caracas.
Personally, I'd guess that most of the South American nations will be Brazillian satellites, with the rump Argentina acting as their favorite punching bag if they get out of line. Chile will stay a US ally only out of fears of Brazilian agression. Maybe a nation like Ecuador or Paraguay will also act as a willing ally of America for military protection, though I have doubts personally about Paraguay.
Venezuela and Colombia will simply try to act as nuetral buffer states between the two rival powers.
In the end, while relations between America and Brazil will be more strained than the relations with Germany, the two nations probably won't get into any major wars with each other, other than probable proxy conflicts.
On a side note, the USA will probably orchestrate a coup against Francisco Jose and help a republican government form in Mexico in the first years after the Second Great War ends.
Germany vs. Russia; Russia, despite having its armies devastated in battle and losing Petrograd to a superbomb, is the last member of the original Quadruple Entente standing. Chances are that another revanchist regime will come into power, and if that happens, a war between the Russians on one side, and the Germans and Austrians on the other side will likely erupt.
The USA and Japan would probably grab chunks out of Siberia if that happened.
In short, another war between Germany and Russia is far more likely than a Third Great War erupting between the USA and Germany.
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So in the end, Germany is far more likely to focus its energies against Russia, probably for at least ten to twenty years after the Second Great War ends, while competing with the USA in regards to key military technologies and a Space Race.
Meanwhile, the USA will be competing with Brazil for influence in South America, while facing a Cold War with the Japanese Empire. The Japanese in turn will be racing to get their own superbomb, while trying their best to consolidate their gains from the Second Great War.
Though both the USA and Japan will jump on Russia if the Russians and Germans get into another shooting war.
I'd say by the 1980s, the world will largely be a stable place, other than the insurgencies being waged against the Great Powers in their conquered territories (especially against the Japanese in their colonial possesions).
But, there's always the fear that the world could end at the drop of a hat if relations between the Powers begin a steady slide downwards.
Anyways, that's my take on it.
Michael E Johnson
Banned
It mostly sounds plausible although I would hope that Germany wouldnt do anything too bad in Africa after the example of the CSA has been made . What do you think about England and France-will they still try and go after Germany-especially England since its unoccupied and is able to create superbombs?
Well, Flora Blackford's already mentioned just how horrendous the Germans have been treating the natives in the Congo (even worse than the Belgians before them, apparently). The USA is certainly going to protest these conditions, but it's doubtful that the Germans will really do anything, just as the Ottomans ignored American and German protests in TTL over the way they treated their Armenian population.
Not France; the Germans will probably grab more territory out of France proper, to say nothing about the destruction of Paris; not to mention the bulk of their colonial empire, with the Germans (and the Austrians perhaps) taking their shares. The Republic of Quebec may be getting a large number of immigrants soon.
The British might be un-occupied, but they've just been shattered by three superbombs; London's destroyed, and the Germans are probably going to ensure that they remain de-militerized, with only a skeleton navy for their few remaining colonial outposts. The Germans aren't going to be in a forgiving mood after the destruction of Hamburg.
Many of Britain's African colonies will get swallowed up by the Germans and their allies; the Ottomans will probably create a puppet state in the Sudan, and Germany will likely snap up Nigeria, Botswana, Upper Rhodesia, Kenya, Uganda, and Nyasaland. India will be vacated too, creating chaos in the sub-Continent.
Australia and New Zealand may start drifting into the American orbit, just to protect themselves from a possible Japanese attack. They may be forced by German to sever their political ties with Britain.
South Africa will probably declare independence by themselves; along with a likely Apartheid policy, they'll become the dumping groud for plethora of groups that have nowhere else to go, including die-hard members of the Freedom Party, Protestants from Ireland, Belgians, die-hard Canadians and Mormons, ect.
So France and Britain are totally finished as major powers; the remnant of France and the hollow shell of the UK will now be German satellite states.
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I think France is likely to take a violent swing to the left, at least as far as the Germans will allow. After all, the Second Empire, the Third Republic, and the quasi-fascist monarchy have all failed miserably, the last the worst of all, at the sacred objective of defeating the hated Germans. I think the French are going to give Socialism a whirl since just about everything else has failed. Britain may also tilt leftward, too. They both have the example of the USA, where a moderate Socialist government successfully prosecuted the Second Great War, even if it did get turned out at the polls by an electorate in a "we want change" mood.
-Joe-
-Joe-
Michael E Johnson
Banned
There is always a major point that I miss and here it is in IATD. Well thats terrible but hopefully the Black Holocaust will help moderate what the Germans (and South Africans) are doing. I was really disappointed to see that apparently there will be no black Israel established anywhere -at least not yet. I will have to check the OTL black population of the South( probably larger since no Great Migration in TL-191) but the figure quoted of 8-10 million dead is probably the vast majority of the pre-war population.There were a whole lot less people willing to help blacks in the CSA as opposed to those who helped Jews in Europe during the OTL WW2. It looks like the Southern Baptist Convention has even more explaining to do than the Vatican did OTL !
That sounds plausible. Both countries are certainly going to be turning inward to rebuild as best they can whatever they have left.
Not to mention all the people that the CSA killed in Haiti.
It wouldn't be surprising if the surviving blacks in the former CSA were offered the lands in Utah being taken from the Mormons. But I suppose we won't really know for sure unless Turtledove comes out with one more stand-alone book set in TL-191's 1960s or something.
Michael E Johnson
Banned
Cuba and Haiti are probably alot more built up than they were OTL. It would seem that a Caribbean location for a black state is also possible. I was also thinking that in TL-191 a future geocide in Africa may not be in Rwanda or Darfur but in South Africa-depending on how long it takes for the apartheid government to fall-oppressed peoples in TL-191 seem alot less forgiving.
Was it said that Utah was going to be take rom the Mormons as well?
Except for Cuba's probably going to be admitted into the Union... Haiti's more of a possibility.
The Germans still rule Rwanda, so they'll continue to play divide-and-conquer there, supporting the Tutsis against the Hutus. They'll likely do the same thing throughout Mittelafrika, to varying degrees.
I think Blackford and Senator Taft were dicussing it.
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While I agree with Cuba (though that will be more tenuous than any CSA state short of Texas, due to the nature of the bi-racial rebellion), I'd say that Haiti may depend on how thorough the CSA's genocide was there. I can't remember the extent that was mentioned, but I'd guess that the heavier the population reduction was the more likely that Haiti would be to becoming an ingrained American satellite.
True. They'll be completely dependent on the USA economically and they'll of course be a total military protectorate.
How many death camps were mentioned? I think there were at least two, one outside of Port-au-Prince and another near Camp Haitian (spelling?). Those alone could do signigicant damage, since the CSA, unless I'm mistaken, occupied Haiti for about four years. Of course, there probably was a large guerilla conflict going on during this time to.
Another point brought up in the book - several times, in fact - is that there is going to be a serious gender imbalance in the surviving black population for some time to come. Remember, most of the black guerrillas were men (though Gracchus' band did have women in it, and I think it wasn't the only one) so marriageable black women are going to be at a real premium for years. I think it's rather too much to hope for that the USA would recruit female immigrants from Africa, though, come to think of it, it would be fitting in an ironic way if such a thing did happen; whereas the Confederacy was executing a "population reduction" program, the United States would be running a "population augmentation" program. Maybe some matchmaking could be done with surviving women from Haiti, or elsewhere in the Caribbean?
-Joe-
I don't know about African immigration (though it would have made an ironic retribution, announced at the sentencing of Pinkard), but you might have something at Haiti. Most of the Confederate black survivors will be male, while more of the Haitian survivors will be women due to the camps starting first with the men. So if there's freedom of movement between the two, black survivors who want to be with their own color could meet eachother.
I agree with the German-US assesment. Both countries don't have any real reason to fight each other, and have been allies for years. Plus Germany and the US aren't as vastly different, idealogically as the US and USSR were.
The most likely war to occur IMO is US and Japan. As for France, I think they are permanently finished. France will probably resemble Germany post-WW2. But unless HT writes another book, we will never know.
The most likely war to occur IMO is US and Japan. As for France, I think they are permanently finished. France will probably resemble Germany post-WW2. But unless HT writes another book, we will never know.
Max Sinister
Banned
I had the idea for a black Israel too. After all, parallel developments are Turtledove's thing.
Caribbea? That's an idea too.
Genocide in South Africa? After what happened, anti-Blacks will have to avoid association with Featherston. Or do you mean a genocide on whites, or non-blacks?
I've never read the TL-191 series, though am interested in what happens with Australia and New Zealand. Would they really join a Nationalist UK in a European war?
Our Prime Minister during the start of WW2 (and the best Prime Minister that we ever had IMO who pretty much built modern day New Zealand) Michael Joseph Savage said "Where Britain goes, we go! Where she stands, we stand!".
Though I doubt that such sentiments would happen had New Zealand been involved in a war on the other side of the planet with massive losses (as in OTL I presume) for no gains at all, 20 years previously. Would the threat of Japan mean that perhaps New Zealand and Australia conduct the war exclusivly in the Pacific independent of the UK? Or would both nations turn nationalistic as the Brits did?
Our Prime Minister during the start of WW2 (and the best Prime Minister that we ever had IMO who pretty much built modern day New Zealand) Michael Joseph Savage said "Where Britain goes, we go! Where she stands, we stand!".
Though I doubt that such sentiments would happen had New Zealand been involved in a war on the other side of the planet with massive losses (as in OTL I presume) for no gains at all, 20 years previously. Would the threat of Japan mean that perhaps New Zealand and Australia conduct the war exclusivly in the Pacific independent of the UK? Or would both nations turn nationalistic as the Brits did?
Michael E Johnson
Banned
Yes.It was a fear OTL and would seem a real possibility in TL-191 the longer apartheid lasts.
Part of the WW1 Entente loss was that they lost powers became much more determined to make up for their loss, and in the process largely went from being liberal leaning to far right leanings. Where France went monarchist and Russia had even more crack downs, Britain and its remaining empire became much more centrist. There are no mentions what so ever of a loosening of the empire, with various dominions and what not preparing for eventual self-governance. Britain says "send troops", and her empire says "how many".
In WW2, though, the US-British-Japanese war became rather tangled in the Pacific. The British and American navies never fought in the Pacific, nor did any of the Australian, New Zealand, or Indian forces fight the US. The US's only action was keeping Japan from seizing Hawaii after the loss of the last Pacific Carrier. Once the US managed to send carriers to Hawaii, Japan turned around and started seizing/attacking Britain's Asian possessions and the US simply watched. India was said to be invaded (but the British were diverting troops to fight there), but I believe Australia and New Zealand came out of the war unscathed.
The post "In at the Death" world is a perfect one for V from V for Vendetta to inhabit.
I could see a proper Norsefire party rising from the ashes of post-nuclear Britain and unleashing a bioengineered virus on her enemies and suddenly coming up with a cure once most of them have succumbed to the effects of it. And maybe a V-like character if HT wanted to pinch the idea.
But realistically speaking, Britain might become the Japan of this world - I'm sure Alan Turing and the rest of the enigma cryptologists are safe in Bletchley Park and they will usher in the electronics revolution rather than letting the Americans and then the Japanese have the advantage.
I could see a proper Norsefire party rising from the ashes of post-nuclear Britain and unleashing a bioengineered virus on her enemies and suddenly coming up with a cure once most of them have succumbed to the effects of it. And maybe a V-like character if HT wanted to pinch the idea.
But realistically speaking, Britain might become the Japan of this world - I'm sure Alan Turing and the rest of the enigma cryptologists are safe in Bletchley Park and they will usher in the electronics revolution rather than letting the Americans and then the Japanese have the advantage.