The closed straits & Ottoman belligerency- how decisive in Russia's WWI collapse?

Ottoman neutrality or alliance would've been a positive "game-changer" 4 WWI Russia


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raharris1973

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The closure of the straits to inter-Allied traffic in WWII was allegedly a major cause of Russian defeat in WWI. Unlike the Italians, or the French, (or the Austrians) the Russians could not enjoy effective succor from their allies during the war to keep their regime and war effort afloat.

At the same time, this may be overstated. Was their a missed opportunity for useful inter-Allied trade between the western allies and the Russians through the Black Sea and straits? Did Russia really have extra grain for export and did the west have extra weapons to send to Russia? Wartime economic difficulties supplying forces everywhere, and Russia's inability to maintain internal agricultural distribution cast doubt on that.

Even if the straits were not so crucial, did the Ottomans contribute the Central Powers by forcing the Russians to spread their efforts and reduce their possible efforts against Austria-Hungary?

Or did the challenges imposed by German military superiority and the Tsarist regime's trouble managing and resourcing a modern war over-determine the outcome of OTL, where Russia was the first major belligerent to collapse, dropping out of the war even before other regimes with a questionable ability to cope with modern war like the Ottoman Empire, Austria-Hungary and Italy?

Bringing this back to a what-if. 1) What if the Ottomans remained neutral? How much would Tsarist Russia benefit from not having to actively fight in the Caucasus, from having a peaceful Black Sea, and from having no bar to the transit of freight through the straits on civilian vessels?

2) In a second variation, what if the Ottomans joined the Entente? Presumably this would allow all the benefits above, plus freedom of Allied military traffic through the straits including combined operations in the Black Sea with the support of the western Allies and the Ottomans.

Is it pretty much guaranteed under either 1) or 2) That Tsarist Russia (or Provisional Government Russia) is going to survive through the end of the war as an allied belligerent, and that Austria-Hungary becomes the first large belligerent to collapse on either side?

Or are the "benefits" of scenarios 1) or 2) so marginal that OTL's eastern front outcome - a Russian revolution and separate peace, remains possible or even still the most probable?
 
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