Cousin Nicky saves the Day (for himself)
The Willy-Nicky correspondence carries on despite mobilization. Russia is in a bad position (untrained troops, poor railroads) so Nicky decides to offer the following terms:
1: Austria-Hungary to have a common monarch, army, post office, and currency, but grant Yugoslavia and Czechslovakia home rule.
2: France retains Lorraine, Germany takes more of Poland from the Russians
3: Russia receives the right to control the north shore of the Dardanelles , and so secures Mediterranian access for the first time.
4: Germany retains overseas colonies, and Japan gets Manchuria.
5: Germany gets the Belgian Congo.
6: France receives Ottoman territory somewhere
The allies would never accept this, but the Christmas truce gives them little alternative. Russia plays them off against each other, getting the treaty they want through. A weakened Belgium splits, becoming parts of France, Germany, and the Netherlands. Poland is waiting for a chance at independence, and the weakened Austrian Empire is going to face a real struggle. Both the Ottoman and Japanese Empires see a common threat in a resurgent Russia, and Ottoman oil plus Japanese industrial might is going to make the lives of the British very difficult. Russia has won: They have split France from the Ottoman Empire, and given Germany a headache in a Polish nationalist movement about to start. Everything is ready for the Thanksgiving dinner.