The Chinese Age of Exploration

In the early 15th Century the Yongle Emperor of Ming China decided to increase the power of China's naval presence in the South China Sea and the Western Ocean (Indian Ocean). Chinese Great Junks had plied the seas for centuries trading in the Indies, South Asia, Arabia and East Africa. Now the Yongle Emperor sent out great fleets under the command of his most trusted Eunuch, Zheng He. In OTL Zhen He made seven voyages. Six of these were under the Yongle Emperor. But this all ended when the Yongle Emperor died in 1424 after hunting Tatars raiders into the Gobi desert, failing to capture them, becoming depressed and suffering a stroke. His son, the Hongxi Emperor cancelled the policy as unnecessary and too expensive. He died the next year and his son, the Xuandi Emperor first renewed his grandfather's policy and financed the 7th Voyage and then changed his mind to agree with his father's view and stopped the voyages once and for all.

POD. But what if the Yongle Emperor had captured the Tatar raiders and never became depressed and didn't die from a stroke. He was 64 at the time. He could have reigned as emperor for another fourteen years if he lived as long as Kublai Khan. What if he had and continued Zheng He's voyages?

Most likely the 7th Voyage would have happened earlier than in OTL, probably 1424 to 1427. This leaves time for Zheng He to make two more voyages before his death in 1433. The 8th Voyage further explores the East Coast of Africa discovering Madagascar from 1428 to 1431, and in the 9th Voyage the exploration continues around the Cape of Good Hope and up the West Coast from 1431 to 1433.

It's on the 9th Voyage that Zheng He trades spices for gold and diamonds in South Africa and arrives back in China with enough treasure that covers the cost of all the 9 Voyages.

Zheng died at sea on the 9th Voyage. His squadron commanders Hong Bao and Zhou Man took the fleet back to China where Hong Bao died. The 10th Voyage, from 1434 to 1437, was commanded by Zhou Man with Ma Huan, who had been Hong Bao's chronicler, now second in command. Ma Huan takes a portion of the fleet up the coast of Western Africa while Zhou Man built a port in South Africa for his fleet to use for trading. Ma Huan discovers the Congo river.

After the Yongle Emperor died in 1438 his heir, the Xuande Emperor continues his grandfather's policy now permanently. He appoints Zhou Man Commander of the Western Ocean and Africa with order to establish a permanent Chinese presence at the port he'd built, which he named Qiwang. From then on the voyages were continuous and no longer numbered. Zhou Man commanded the fleet from Qiwang, sending subcommanders to voyage back and forth from Qiwang to China through the Western Ocean and South China Sea continuing trade with East Africa, Arabia, South Asia and the Indies.

Ma Huan based in Qiwang slowly worked his way up the coast of Western Africa in many voyages and reached the Guinea Coast in 1446 where his fleet encountered the Portuguese explorer Antionio Fernandes. The Portuguese had been exploring the west coast of Africa during the same time the Chinese had been doing their voyages. The Portuguese had established colonies in Madeira and the Azores. The Portuguese were finally reaching their goal, sailing past the Sahara to Western Africa so they could directly trade there for gold and slaves. But that was nothing when they found that they could trade with Ma Huan in Guinea for all the riches of the Orient.

But the Chinese were not about to give the advantage to the Portuguese. Ma Huan's fleet accompanied Fernandes' ships back to Portugal and sailed into Lagos Harbor in Portugal on March 3, 1447. The Ming Fleet had arrived in Europe. World History would never be the same.
 
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What happens next?

The Ming Fleet had arrived in Europe. World History would never be the same.

I'm not really interested in developing this whole alternate history. I'd like it to be a shared, braided development. So please feel free to add to the timeline. I'd like us to work with whatever has been added, rather than have competing additions.

Of course we should be able to critique, isn't that the fun of all this? But let's differentiate between commentary and timeline additions. An easy way to do this is that we start all commentary with a quote, even if it is just to set up a discussion like I did in this one. When you add to the time line don't quote. Hopefully this will make it clear to us all what is in the timeline and what isn't.

:)
 
a couple of objections

Chinese Junks were not really suited to sail in bad weather, or heavy oceans. They were superbly suited to coastal and inland riverine trade, with their shallow draft and heavy tonnage. That is why almost all of Zheng He's voyages followed the coasts of the lands. For all the abilities of Zheng He, he would be find it difficult to sail past Cape Correntes in central Mozambique, simply because the rough waters from Cape Correntes and the Shipwreck Coast of South Africa would take apart his ships. The Porguguese naus and caravels were better suited to handle rough weather and take more punishment from the ocean.

Second - in the 1400s, South Africa had neither gold nor diamonds to sell. South African gold deposits are not the usual alluvial gold deposits (which were the only gold mines capable of being worked) and you need expensive and sophisticated mining technology (which is why the Boers could not mine them and had to invite uitlanders to mine the gold for them). The diamonds are far to the interior and no one knew of South African riches until the 1800s.
 
The real problem is the Ming voyages were not economically sustainable. What is not sustainable, will eventually not be sustained.

If you compare the Portugese exploration model, it's a business. Small numbers of vessels went overseas to look for exploitable riches. The Ming fleet was a traveling expo, throwing money around to impress the natives. They brought back exotic animals and the occasional diplomat, it wasn't worth the vast expenditure involved.

The whole Ming dynasty was a text book case of fiscal irresponsibility. They were also building the Great Wall at the same time, as well as the extravagent Imperial Palace, the Imperial Tombs. All of the royals and their extended families were drawing huge pensions from the state. The parallel bureaucracy of the Eunchs and traditional state bureacracy and infighting thereof. The over spending was crushing the peasant tax base and the paper currency became worthless. It was abandoned and the world would not see paper currency again for two hundred years.

What the Ming needed was a better business model for the voyages. They really needed something like the Dutch chartered joint stock companies to follow the fleet around and find ways to make a profit. They didn't really need to go to Europe. The Arabs would have much to offer in terms of technology, science and math. Regional states in Malaysia and the Phillipines also had tropical goods to trade for the Ming didnot know of. If the best science and mathematics in the Indian Ocean region could be integrated China would make a huge leap ahead of where they were in 1400.
 
Well, the Laet Ming and Qing were purchasing these goods, no?

I don't know what the late Ming were buying from Malaysia, if any. They did trade with Spanish Phillipines, mostly new world goods though.

Even in 1400 there was gutta percha and manila hemp to trade for.
 
Thats what I do in all my Ming TLs, some offical comes up with a cheaper and more efficent model based on smaller fleets.
 
I heard the Chinese problem described this way:
Chinese invent compass, send fleet to find spice islands, find them just to the South, end of story.

Europeans take Chinese compass, send fleets to find Spice islands, have to go past Africa, Middle East, India, the Americas etc to do so, start of story.

Sometimes geography matters.
 
Chinese Junks were not really suited to sail in bad weather, or heavy oceans. They were superbly suited to coastal and inland riverine trade, with their shallow draft and heavy tonnage. That is why almost all of Zheng He's voyages followed the coasts of the lands. For all the abilities of Zheng He, he would be find it difficult to sail past Cape Correntes in central Mozambique, simply because the rough waters from Cape Correntes and the Shipwreck Coast of South Africa would take apart his ships. The Porguguese naus and caravels were better suited to handle rough weather and take more punishment from the ocean.

Second - in the 1400s, South Africa had neither gold nor diamonds to sell. South African gold deposits are not the usual alluvial gold deposits (which were the only gold mines capable of being worked) and you need expensive and sophisticated mining technology (which is why the Boers could not mine them and had to invite uitlanders to mine the gold for them). The diamonds are far to the interior and no one knew of South African riches until the 1800s.

I think diamond trade could start a chinese age of exploration.
 
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