The China Incident Delayed

War between Japan and the Nationalist Chinese really wasn't in either party's interest when it broke out. The Nationalist Chinese had a full plate of enemies with the warlords and Communists. The Japanese had plenty of enemies too, with the Soviets getting stronger in the Far East, a buildup that would eventually turn the balance of power against the Japanese in Manchuria.

Both sides went into the war partly because of illusions. There was a strain of thought among the Nationalist Chinese that said that if they fought back against the Japanese, the western powers would intervene. There was a strain of thought among the Japanese that defeating the Nationalists would be as easy as defeating the various warlord armies had been. Both strains of thought were clearly and obviously wrong, and it should have been obvious to the participants that they were wrong.

The challenge: how do you keep the Chinese and Japanese from full-scale war until at least 1940, and what would consequences be? I have some ideas on both fronts, but would love to see what you think.
 
The problem with your premise is that the Japanese Army wanted to attack China and just used the Marco Polo Bridge incident as an excuse. They'd have found another one. You need to find a way to lower the power of the Army so that they can't "force" the nation to go to war with China.
 
For China to avoid the war in 1937 they would have to surrender much of Northern China to placate the Japanese, which would leave it in worse shape.

The Japanese have no intention of waiting until 1940. That would give too much time for the Chinese to modernize, which they were doing at brisk pace. Industry was being moved inland and the Germans and Czechs were setting up factories to build artillery and other weapons of war. The Germans in particular were selling tanks, submarines, building a "Chinese Hindenburg Line" in Eastern China and training Chinese troops.

In 1937 few of the German equipment had arrived and only 8 divisions had been trained. The program would have been complete by 1940 with 40 German trained divisions. This would have been enough to carry out the Falkenhausen Plan which was to use the fortified line to contain Japan around Shanghai to the East and prevent a crossing of the Yellow River to the North. Then it would only be a matter of time before China's overwhelming numbers force Japanese withdraw through attrition.

When Tojo rose to command of the Kwantang Army he knew time was not on his side. As far as he was concerned it was now or never.
 
Out of control army

Given how out of control the Japanese Army was, delaying the war would be difficult. At the same time, an all-out war was not in the Japanese national interest in 1937. It weakened them relative to the Soviets. It also diverted resources from a planned Japanese build-up in heavy industry. True, the Nationalists were building up militarily and industrially, but given the limited financial resources of the Nationalists, the planned military and industrial buildup wouldn't necessarily lead to a Japanese preemptive war. It would be logical and probably correct to question how much of the planned buildup the Chinese would really be able to afford.

From Chiang's point of view, Japanese advances in northern China were regrettable and damaging to prestige, but he didn't really control that area anyway. From a purely military point of view, a Japanese advance in the north actually could be viewed as strengthening the Chinese center versus the northern warlords. Politically, it did weaken Chiang's pretensions to be the ruler of all of China, but that could probably be handled by a propaganda campaign pointing out the military incompetence of the warlords and the extent to which they enabled the Japanese.
 
China's build up was sufficiently alarming for Tojo to want war in 1937. It wasn't just a matter of industry but also the Nationalists and Communists had buried the hatchet in December 1936 following the Xian Incident. When the war started Japan expected total victory in 3 months. This was totally unrealistic, but even the IJA would not expect such easy victory if the war is put off until 1940. Without such prospects, Japan be at risk from the Soviets and the West if they get mired in China.

If Chiang Kai-shek were to surrender northern China (assuming he has the political capital to do so), the war would only be delayed a year. Since 1931 China had been ceding parts of northern China only to see Japan making more demands. There's no way the Japanese will be content for 3 years with one more Chinese province.
 
China's build up was sufficiently alarming for Tojo to want war in 1937. It wasn't just a matter of industry but also the Nationalists and Communists had buried the hatchet in December 1936 following the Xian Incident. When the war started Japan expected total victory in 3 months. This was totally unrealistic, but even the IJA would not expect such easy victory if the war is put off until 1940. Without such prospects, Japan be at risk from the Soviets and the West if they get mired in China.

If Chiang Kai-shek were to surrender northern China (assuming he has the political capital to do so), the war would only be delayed a year. Since 1931 China had been ceding parts of northern China only to see Japan making more demands. There's no way the Japanese will be content for 3 years with one more Chinese province.

Three months to conquer China? The IJA General Staff must have had more optimism then a hippie gathering...

Maybe Konoe doesn't go ape shit and threaten to continue mobilization, and Tashiro doesn't die of a heart attack? Hard to say...events were moving very quickly by 1937, and I'm sure the IJA would have found another casus belli by 1938. How many German-trained divisions was the NRA supposed to have by then?
 
Very difficult as the IJA was very rouge and agressive - it wanted a war with China (since before the 1900s) and the Soviet Union (after the border skirmishes) at the same time. It was also unreasonably optimistic ("Shanghai in 3 days; China in 3 months") about how the war would unfold. Once the intial incidents between China and Japan occured - Japan wouldn't stop, it was addicted to war like an alcoholic is to booze.
 
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