I outlined a plan by which the OE would have a sphere of influence in which to operate. At least 1/3 of Eastern Thrace would go to Greece, probably a bit more, since the swath i suggest remain Turkish is a buffer-zone for Constantinope.
A really fine idea. It only has the little difficulty that IIRC, we took for assumed that Bulgaria somehow got back Western Thrace (don't know how it happened, somehow it was never explcitly defined but got taken for granted sometime along the way), so if Greece got Eastern Thrace it would lack a land connection to the rest of Greece. So we need to recon explictly who holds Western Thrace (if Bulgaria, ITTL must have builled it out of neutral Greece at the peace treaty), and decide how the Greek-Bulgarian border would get settled in Thrace. Anyway, there's got to be a lot of bickering between Greece and Bulgaria. Ah, Balkans
Not a huge land concession but it does address the concern over the vast numbers of Greeks in Cyprus, no matter how imperfect.
That's why I saw Cyprus as a better concession, IMO it's less strategically valuable to the OE than Eastern Thrace, but if the Sultan and Enver have such an obsessive love for Cyprus, I reluctantly bow to it and let's got Eastern Thrace instead.
The OE gets to keep their precious straights.
If the OE oversteps its sphere of influence as set up, they get whapped again-perhaps more harshly than this time.
Yup, although hoping that if the need truly arises, the Prussian officer class have broken from their pro-Ottoman fascination in the meantime and can see the need for it.
Contrary to concerns raised otherwise, the OE is not getting "carved up." Its loss of land is minimal. It gets its precious Cyprus as well, which is apparently the most important holding the Sultan has outside of Constantinople which the OE gets too keep too.
Yup.
As for all this "historical claim" the Greek people could claim its position in the East before the OE. The Romans (Italy) before that). Before that even, the Greeks again can claim greater priority in historic claims. But it seems the power who should get the whole of the Ottoman Empire and then some is Persia...oh wait...Egypt has historic claims well up into Palestine. Sarcasm here? Yes...but I beg to ask...how far back are historical claims valid? What is the statute of limitation?
My points on the issue exactly. At least ethnic and strategic claims have some hard factual basis diplomats can work upon. But historical is an endless can of worms.
I am still wondering a bit, so we can get on with a little progress, just exactly what we will toss, what we will keep, and what, if anything, needs to be added to get to a new starting point?
My own offer on the issue: I recon the posts about the successful implementation of the federal EL reform plan, rast recons the German nationalist reaction against it, and we define some kind of intermediate hybrid supernational/intergovernative evolution of the EL that looks reasonable enough to the German public. Keeping into mind that the OTL equivalent saw the League of Nations got implemented, so anything up to that level ought to be safe (sorry Rast, but I really can't see the German public being more bullheaded nationalist than the Americans as to refuse even this; they are in the middle of Europe with no isolationist tradition, after all; democratic Germany was reasonably confortable in the LoN until Hitler came along).
I also offer to erase either:
Italy does not keep bases on the Dodecanese so it does not enter the 3rd Balkan War. It just gives support to the Greek. Therefore, no invasion of Egypt. Greece, Bulgaria, and OE butt their horns in Thrace, and that's the extent of the war.
OR
After it occupies Egypt, and the Germans land at Suez, it makes not a claim for annexing it. Also it limits their peace claims to an EL supervision on the Egyptian government, and whatever claim for Greece we define as reasonable and Germany can accept. Germany, Italy, OE, and Egypt sign a treaty and this ends the Italian intervention. They leave the OE, Greece, and Bulgaria to fight to mutual exaustion in Thrace, as above.
What IMO must be reconned the other side:
The coup and all the internal mess in Germany. It continues on its normal political order. Whatever influence the neo-Prussian cliques feel the need to apply and safeguard Ottoman interests somehow, it gets applied the normal way, through backstage political pressure, not a coup. Also, some serious brake on the influence of such pseudo-fascist cliques. Barring the coming of the Great Depression or losing a major war, simply there is not enough reason or influence for them to make a serious attempt at overthrowing the democratic order. They have their Kaiser. And the OE losing some minor land certainly is not a good reason for a revolution. Bismarck did far worse.
Germany does not suddenly get anti-Italian, nor so pro-Ottoman, anti-Greek, and anti-Bulgarian as to stage an invasion of an ally for stopping a limited war. They let it fight to mutual exaustion for a while, then enforce a cease-fire in combined action with Italy and the rest of the League the usual old way, by political and economy pressure. At the very most, they make the veiled *threat* of military intervention. In all likelihood, the combined influence of Germany, Hungary, and Italy can accomplish that.
Also, some serious brake on the future projection of anti-Italian bias and pro-Ottoman love on the TL (I plead to be no nationalist, but the amount of anti-Italian scorn thrown around of late has seriously annoyed me). ITTL Italy has not been any more disloyal or imperialist-greedy than Germany, Turkey, or any other power of the Alliance. Germany steps in to prevent any major land loss for the Ottomans, OK. The next time, if ever, that Enver misbehaves, Berlin must agree that he needs to be slapped. The same way, I agree that if Greek nationalists misbehave again, Italy must see the need to punish them.
I also offer as an option to add some recon to add some kind of veteran settlement program and economy development in Libya, so oil gets discovered there in early-mis 20s, so European economy is not *entirely* dependent on Ottoman oil. Anyway, America is neutral, and has no reason as to refuse selling its oil to Europe.
I think the biggest problem right now on the map is NOT in the eastern Mediterranean, but in Germany. I still do not see any solution for what has become, in this thread, one of the most unstable entities on the map. The people seem to be torn between some sort of pseudo-fascism and a liberal (not left leaning) federal state. It seems to contradict itself incesently. If the country is acting with such cupidity, I have no idea how it has become the great golden economic beacon of the world. Political clamouring is one thing, but coups, and counter coups, and counter-counter coups, votes in favor of joining Europe-wide unions by the people, then in nearly the same stroke these same people take to the streets and cheer the series of coups based on distaste for such "utopian" concepts as Europe uniting! Is Germany going to collapse? Is the Prussian core strong enough to hold together its much larger than ever empire (and I don't mean other countries; I mean European Germany and the European lands added to it at and after the end of the war.
Well, to a degree it is reasonable to assume that some neo-Prussian cliques still long for the days of authoritarianism, and distaste the parliamentary government, but their distaste should be seriously toned down by the fact that Germany still has a Kaiser. And democratic Germany has such an impressive lists of successes (economic prosperity, peaceful enlargement to HRE boundaries, most of Europe following its leadership in good will) that all but the most fanatical of such cliques should recognize that the Chancellors and the Reichstag are doing a rather good job.
Anyway, I offer to remove evolution towards federal union of Europe, and let it happen rather more gradually over 1-2 decades, if all the coups sequence is done away entirely, even if the Chancellor sends troops to occupy Suez.
Yes, I think that the Prussian/Great German elite, working in unison, is strong enough to keep this HRE-Gemrany unite, if all the saber-rattling of the officer coprs over a minor point of foreign policy is done away entirely.
This question of the Italian-Ottoman balance is puzzling too. Solutions have been offered to create a balance, or more balance. But some think the OE is some sort of super powerhouse, while others think Italy is.
As far as the TL has advanced so far, IMO a fair description of how the various major powers of European League stand is:
Economically
Germany
Britain
Italy (only until France has not recovered)
France (up a place when it recovers)
Hungary/Sweden (hard to say which is better, so I lump them together)
Spain
Ottoman Empire/Poland (as above, Poland has more industry, but OE has oil)
Greece/Bulgaria (without oil, the OE would be here or lower)
Militarly
Germany
Britain
Italy
Hungary/Sweden
Ottoman Empire
Greece/Bulgaria/France (demilitarized, if not would get before Italy)
As such, I certainly do not regard Italy as a global powerhouse, but economically and militarly it has developed to be the rung just below a France at the full expression of its potential. On the continental scale, it's no lightweight. ITTL it has anticipated the economic development to the levels that OTL it reached in the 60s, which makes the fourth economy of Europe. Since it has won the war, it is no pacifist and has developed its military to scale. Even admitting the OE did some development of its own (which noobody wrote anything about, IIRC) it would be much more backward than Italy, Hungary, and Sweden if we use the same meter. With such an economy differential, it may have developed its military somewhat more than it economy level but that overwhelimgly so. Having such an expansionist leadership, probably most of the oil profits have gone on the military budget, but as it has been pointed out, oil is not yet that fundamental for developed economies.
Think about this in closing. Which country has taken the steps which, in the 19th and early 20th centuries, lead to industrial/economic growth. The OE seems to be living in some sort of time past, reliving some glory day of yore, with its Great War win. I have not seen many steps by the OE to address any real industrial growth, other than the oil it mocks the rest of europe with. In its retreat into days gone by, how industrialized could it really be? Italy, however, has taken more steps towards a modern economic and industrial kind of state. This, while the OE is out grabbing up Egypt and Cyprus because it once was theirs. Could someone clarify the economic/industrial powerhouse that is the OE without simply saying, "they have the oil?" Do they have an economy and a government conducive to growth as has been seen in Italy? Even Greece, it has been said, has a leader who seeks more than land a country with at least a little industrial modernization and economic growth, the creation of new jobs and industries in the country. The OE certainly has a military; it has been moving them all over the map, and they should be damned lucky the Armenians and other minorities have not risen up while all the troops are going to other fronts. After all, isn't at least an inkling of this war, whether a rhetorical nicety or real, about disgust over Turkish genocide as well as fears about new genocides?
I agree entirely.