LAST TIME ON AH BALL Z:
The bigger you make a Mongol conquest of Europe, the larger Lithuania will become once it arises to rule the ashes. Feed me your anger and might
Now, obviously, I meant this statement as a joke, but now I've gotten to think about it - even though the Invasion of Europe is such a popular idea on this site and just doesn't seem to get a consensus on how it would have gone, Lithuania's place in such a scenario has almost always been left in mystery - which is surprising, considering the (admittedly unsung) impact that the Lithuanians had during the OTL Mongol period in Eastern Europe. And it's also quite sad, considering just how much different the timeline of Medieval Lithuania could be in a Mongol-dominated Europe.
Before we can talk about this, let's make a few brief assumptions about the setting. So Ogedei lives, the Mongols keep pressing forward and roll over Europe until they reach the Atlantic. A Mongol khanate establishes itself in the Pannonian Plain, and what used to be the HRE, Poland, France and maybe Northern Italy is now a series of ravaged Mongol tributaries, similar to the situation in OTL Rus' during the Mongol yoke. The Pannonian Mongols send punitive expeditions when needed, much like with the Golden Horde, fight amongst themselves and, if possible, expand.
No need to think over this setting too much.
Now, questions to answer!
Would Lithuania suffer the same fate as the rest of Europe?
One common argument presented by the anti-Mongol crowd is that Europe wasn't wealthy enough for the Mongols to bother - and if Western Europe is considered to have too little reward, too much risk, then Lithuania is definitely even more even more exemplary of that. According to calculations made by historian Henryk Lowmianski, Lithuania in the 13th century had a population density of approximately 3 people per square kilometer, which is almost as dense as OTL Mongolia today. Even the sources at the time make sure to note just how poor and "uncivilized" the Balts were in comparison to the rest of Europe. There were no major cities, the land was poor, and the terrain was even worse than in Germany or Poland - you'd be more lucky to find land that
isn't covered in forest or a swamp.
And even if the Mongols decided on attacking Lithuania, the conquest would not be easy. Now, I won't deny that Mongolian armies would have been able to defeat anything Lithuania could throw at them in this era, they definitely could and most likely would, but it should be noted that Lithuanian military strategy in the 13th century relied on avoiding direct confrontation, like pitched battles, as much as possible, both offensively and defensively. Wars with the Teutonic and Livonian Orders around this era are great showcases of Lithuanian, especially Samogitian, expertise in proto-guerrilla warfare - during defensive wars, all able-bodied men were expected to take part in defending their land, if not in rallied militias, then in building wooden fortifications, stakes for slowing down enemy cavalry or retreating into the countryside to protect the population from destruction. Lithuanian armies often used ambushes and adapted to the swampy and forested landscape, most famously with the system of
kūlgrinda. And such military tactics were not the best for Mongol mounted armies. Of course, as I've started before, the Mongols could, in theory, destroy Lithuania like any other nation, but it'd be a hassle that would yield nothing in return.
It is perhaps no coincidence that in OTL, even though Lithuania was right next to the Mongol dominated Rus', there is only one known major Mongol raid into Lithuania (Burundaj in 1259), which didn't even really achieve anything long-term.
Would Lithuania even form in a Mongol Europe TL?
Even ignoring all the recent discussion within our historian community about pushing the date of the foundation of Lithuania to as early as 1183 (which is when Lithuanian raids into neighboring territory suddenly vastly increased in number and size, indicating the formation of a some sort of organized structure) and using the consensus of the Soviet era, Mindaugas's Duchy of Lithuania arose in 1240, before the assumed POD in this scenario, so yes, Lithuania is going to be out there.
Fate of the Orders?
By 1240, it had been ten years since the Teutonic Order began it's campaign against the Prussians, and while the expansion of the Order was fast, it was starting to receive brakes in the form of the Prussian Uprisings. Prussian border regions like Pogesania had fallen, but Sambia, the strongest of the Prussian lands, was still intact, and it would take 15 whole years in OTL before they could be taken down. Now, one thing to note about early Teutonic expansion is that it would have been practically impossible without Western, and especially Polish, support. Masovian and Pomerelian dukes propped up the Order and helped it to fight against the Prussians (although they eventually regretted it and started to fight against the Knights), and Sambia was strong, wealthy and powerful enough (potentially the most wealthy within the Balts) that it could completely resist a Teutonic invasion and require a crusade (led by the King of Bohemia!) to be defeated.
In a Mongol Europe scenario, Western help and Polish support are both removed from the equation, since, as expected, the rest of Christian Europe (at least the part of Europe that could support the Order at this period) has been turned to smithereens. It's possible that if the Papacy calls for an all-European anti-Mongol crusade, the Teutonic Order itself gets knocked down a peg. With both of these matters at hand, the Order would not be able to keep up it's rate of expansion in OTL, and it's likely that they would be completely kicked out from Prussia by the end of the century. The Great Prussian Uprising of 1260-74 is a good example of how the Prussians could do so with their own hands - it was vast and dangerous enough that the Teutonic Order needed Western crusaders to endure it in OTL.
Now, with the Teutonic Order sent fleeing, and the Poles still not in recovery after the Mongol conquest, and the Prussians likely returning to their pre-crusade divided selves, who fills up the power vacancy? That's right. Lithuania may not have harbored any ambitions in Prussia during it's ascendency, but during the 1260s, it often participated in Prussian affairs - for example, it supported the Great Prussian Uprising and competed with the Order for Scalovia and Sudovia - and if Vytautas and Jogaila's speeches in the Council of Constance are anything to go by, Lithuania never dropped it's potential claim on Prussia, which would only rise up to light if Prussia is so ripe for taking.
The fate of the Livonian Order is even simpler. Much like the Teutons, it was reliant on Western support to be able to push against the Balts, but unlike the Teutons, their expansion was slow and riddled with failures even in OTL. Four years before the POD, in the Battle of Saule, the Livonians were decisively defeated and routed by Lithuanian forces, rolling back thirty years of conquests in what is now southern and western Latvia. These successes were repeated in Memel in 1257, Skuodas in 1259 and Durbe in 1260 - the Livonians had a losing track record against Baltic rebellions there. Without Western support, and since Lithuania harbored immediate claims on their Order's territory (especially on Latgale and Semigallia, which were raiding grounds for the Lithuanians before the arrival of the Knights), they would disappear from the map even faster than their Prussian counterparts.
In fact, the OTL period of slow and tough Lithuanian expansion into the western reaches of the Kievan Rus' (taking Navahrudak and the Black Rus' alone was a huge struggle for them) may not even happen, instead being replaced in TTL with a much faster Lithuanian expansion into the rest of the Baltic territories to the west, which they failed to acquire in OTL.
14th Century? Western and/or Eastern Expansion?
To Lithuania, the 14th century was an era of unprecedented territorial expansion, which may appear wanky, even "ASB" to some if viewed without any context, but in reality, much like almost all events in human history, it had a basic set of circumstances that a 1240 POD would find hard to erase. What were the main pushes for Lithuanian expansion? Well, Teutonic pressure, and thus a desire to acquire territory in the East to compensate, was one. In the 14th century, Lithuania had advanced from a tribal stratocracy to a feudal monarchy, and the developing nobility class required land to remain loyal and obtain a source of income - that was an another one. Lithuanian society has matured enough to move from simple raiding to a more territorial outlook on economy, taxation became a more important source of income than looting, so more territory was necessary. Furthermore, prestige, granting land to the royal family (especially heirs) and imperial ambitions also played a part, but they were minor drives for expansion. Out of all these factors only one is removed in a Mongol Europe scenario, and that is Teutonic pressure - so while Lithuanian expansion would be slower, it would certainly take place.
Now, with that in mind, and remembering that the Mongols turned Poland and Germany into bone powder, would Lithuania advance west much like it did east? Most likely. In OTL, there were two main reasons for why Lithuania never advanced into Poland despite having the incentive to do so. During the early stages of the Lithuanian state, Poland was considerably farther away than the Russian principalities (like Polotsk), and by the time Lithuania and Poland acquired a common border, the latter had already re-consolidated into a single state and was thus a tough nut to crack. One thing to remember about Lithuanian expansion in the 14th century is that it pretty much always followed the path of least resistance, and in OTL, that path was the Russian principalities.
However, with Poland pillaged and weakened, it's safe to say that their re-consolidation would end up delayed (though most likely not butterflied away), while the Lithuanians, no longer pushed by the Orders, would acquire a border with the Polish principalities considerably earlier, so it's definitely within the realm of possibility that Lithuania could at least acquire Mazovia. In the east, the Russian principalities, the expansion would most likely follow a similar path to OTL, although, much like in our world, a lot of luck will be required to achieve OTL borders. And if West becomes a viable option for expansion, Lithuania may never reach, say, Smolensk or Chernigov at all.
Now, what about the Hordes? There may be questions popping up about whether this rapid Lithuanian expansion would just simply get strangled in it's cradle by the Mongols. Well, you raise that question, I'll raise a historical fact that may help you realize the answer.
From "History of Lithuania, tome III - XIII cent. - 1385. The rise of a state between East and West", published in 2011 by Artūras Dubonis and crew:
(page 475) "[...] And it was cooperation with the Tatars that was an important factor in Algirdas's conquest of wide lands in Podolia, Kiev, Chernigov and Bryansk. Having gained power for himself and his sons, Algirdas continued to recognize the supreme rule of the Tatars in the mentioned lands. This meant that the Lithuanian rulers increased their lands without much bloodshed or confrontations, silently adapting to the regime in place"
Dubonis calls it a Lithuanian-Tatar "condominium", and it wasn't necessarily unique to Lithuania - for example, after taking over Galicia, Casimir III briefly paid tribute to the Golden Horde - but it's most prolific with the Lithuanians. In exchange for being able to take over Rus' territory, the Lithuanian dukes in place continued to pay tribute to the Mongols and recognized their supremacy. And, for the most part, they were even more loyal than the Rurikids they replaced.
Lithuania didn't conquer most of the Kievan Rus to remove the Mongol Yoke, in fact, they kept it in place. And nothing says a similar condominium cannot appear in a Mongol Europe scenario, either!
When did this condominium disappear in OTL? While some Ukrainian historians point to the Battle of Blue Waters, the historical consensus is centered on the very end of the 14th century, when Tokhtamysh fled to Lithuania and, in a document to Vytautas, relinquished his rights to collect tribute from Lithuanian lands. In this scenario, unless something similar to the Golden Horde Civil War ever happens, Lithuania would have no choice but to stay subservient to the Mongols, no matter how much it hurts their pride.
What about Christianity?
There is an interesting point to consider about Lithuanian christianization.
One of the reasons cited for why Lithuanian rulers (at least, the ones who ruler Lithuania proper) never chose Orthodoxy in OTL despite it sounding pretty logical (although it's not easy to find this reason actually stated anywhere in first-hand sources, for obvious reasons) was that the Lithuanians operated on a very, let's say, "brutish" mentality, and in their point of view, as the Rus'ians fell before them and became their subjects, their gods must be weaker than the pagan ones.
In this scenario, both the Orthodox and the Catholics are subjects of the Lithuanian grand dukes, and in addition, there is no strong Catholic power to pressure them into accepting either set of Christianity. If there even is a Papacy, it's probably a lot more concerned with the events to parts of Europe that actually matter, while the Holy Roman Empire is most likely gone. Poland is weak, the Orders are gone, the Scandinavians are not numerous enough nor have enough power projection to press Lithuania all on their own.
With this set of circumstances, it's getting quite possible that Lithuania simply doesn't end up choosing Christianity in the end. There is no "existential threat" to Lithuanian sovereignty that can only be solved by becoming Catholic or Orthodox, and the most important long-term impact of the Baptism of Lithuania, that is Lithuania's integration into Western culture and the introduction of peaceful economic and cultural ties with the rest of Europe, could theoretically be accomplished without an actual baptism.
Of course, since Christianization is still important to calm down the Christian subjects of the population and it's importance to turn Lithuania from a ragtag duchy of pagan raiders into an actual civilized society cannot be underestimated, perhaps they would likely still end up Christian, but it could be possible that Christianization may end up delayed for many years.
...
I have made a few maps to illustrate my long ramble of a point. Actually, four maps, of the potential borders of Lithuania in a Mongol Europe scenario by 1400.
This is what I would imagine to be the most likely outcome, a balance between Eastern and Western expansion, and at the same time not threatening enough to the Mongols.
"Botched expansion", or if someone put a lid on Lithuanian expansion in the 14th century. Still, with the Orders removed, ethnic Lithuania is considerably larger than OTL. And deriving from this:
"Maximum Western expansion" while ignoring east,
"Maximum Eastern expansion" while ignoring west.
What are your thoughts?