The Caroline Lucas Effect - The 2010 Australian Federal Election

The Poarter

Banned
The 2010 Australian Federal Election would see the outbreak of the vaulted Third Party of Australia. In this instance this was the Australia Greens. For the first time since 1940, Australia found itself with a hung parliament, which would radically change the policies of the country over the next three years.

Hindsight tells us that the Australia Election was not truly surprising from the world stage, but nevertheless came as a shock to notable career politicians and analysts who were not expecting a balance of power to lie so decisively with such a party.

In essence it was the Caroline Lucas effect described as the phenomenon of several left-wings, and occasionally right wing parties, gaining prominence and increased political power in federal elections of industrialized countries. The election of Caroline Lucas as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom would kick down the door of opportunities for various parties whose platforms would have once seem completely radical a year prior.

It has been cited by many intellectuals that the Australian and Belgian elections was simply one of the many examples that brought up the prominence of left wing ideologies. The 2013 federal election of Germany saw the rise of the Green Party to second place position. Belgium’s Greens saw themselves rise to become the fourth largest party in 2010. 2011 would see the United Left become the official Opposition of Spain against the Socialists Workers Party. Most notably, and exceptionally, the 2011 Canadian Election would see the country government run by the Centre-left Liberals against a Coalition of the New Democratic Party and the Greens. While Canada was clearly the most extreme of all examples and the world, outside of the United Kingdom, a clear and consistent trend emerges.

The growing power of the New Left and various Green parties regardless of borders.

Various factors can be attributed to the rise of the left in industrialized countries throughout Europe, Asia and parts of the Americas. The answers range from the 2008 Recession, climate change and environmental awareness, rising costs of living, the growing income divide in the industrialized world to the reverse disenfranchisement of voters and their apathy to politics. Collectively these and many other factors demonstrate a clear and concise desire against free-market capitalistic treaties aided by the rise of social media and internet policies.

In less than two years the governing parties and the political arenas of every developed country had changed. Whether or not we are in agreement on its effects, this is the world we live in. And it is the world Caroline Lucas has brought us into.


The Age writer and Author Ross Grittins
The Caroline Lucas Effect: The Rise of the Radical Left and the Greens
Published in 2014​
 
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One hopes this new party's rise would change the actions of Australia regarding one of its most prominent journalists. (Perhaps said journalist could run for the Senate in 2012 as OTL...but as a member of that party...)
 
One hopes this new party's rise would change the actions of Australia regarding one of its most prominent journalists. (Perhaps said journalist could run for the Senate in 2012 as OTL...but as a member of that party...)

Why do you never use names of people you refer to in posts like these?

The election of Caroline Lucas as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom would kick down the door of opportunities for various parties whose platforms would have once seem completely radical a year prior.

...okay. We don't know the POD yet, and if it's far back enough, this could be interesting. I await, intrigued!
 

Sideways

Donor
Oh Yay!

Poarter you wonder, I can't wait to see how this develops. I love the style you've taken too.

What is the PoD like for this?

I am so excited for this timeline.:)
 
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The Poarter

Banned
Interesting to see where you take this.

You haven't seen nothing yet.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Orville_third View Post
One hopes this new party's rise would change the actions of Australia regarding one of its most prominent journalists. (Perhaps said journalist could run for the Senate in 2012 as OTL...but as a member of that party...)
Why do you never use names of people you refer to in posts like these?

Originally Posted by The Poarter View Post
The election of Caroline Lucas as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom would kick down the door of opportunities for various parties whose platforms would have once seem completely radical a year prior.
...okay. We don't know the POD yet, and if it's far back enough, this could be interesting. I await, intrigued!


Oh Yay!

Poarter you wonder, I can't wait to see how this develops. I love the style you've taken too.

What is the PoD like for this?

I am so excited for this timeline.:)

I'm basically using your Timeline BrotherSideways. However in this case I'm simply showing the global side-effects, hence the reason why I've listed this as an alternate 1900 instead of Alien Space Bats. It is logically that left wing and Green parties would receive additional support after the United Kingdom election.

However there are a few fundamental differences for the United Kingdom in this timeline:

  • The Greens won 283 Seats instead of 329 seats like yours forcing them to go into a coalition with the Liberal democrats
  • The Liberal democrats won 178 seats in this timeline
  • Labor has only 71 Seats
  • The Conservatives merely have 81 seats
  • Alot more "Big Names" for the other parties survived the Green Massacre such as Nick Clegg, David Cameroon and Nick Griffith and etc
  • The Minor Parties gained the rest of the seats.
  • The Greens won with merely 25% of the Voter share, same with the Liberal Democrats
  • Election turnout was 86.8%

By the way. Would you mind making such a map for me? I really don't know if I have the time or the knowledge to make an appropriate map for the United Kingdom.
 

The Poarter

Banned
Chapter 1: One Step Closer

July 16th, 2010 – Somewhere in Canberra​
Mark Arbib: So how fucked are we?

Wayne Swan: Not as much as you think. The polls are up at least.

Mark Arbib: Only because of the Greens.

Penny Wong: I warned you before. We shouldn’t have moved so far from our
base. This isn’t America. This isn’t Brazil. This isn’t Russia. The old base is
going to vote against us and they’re going to be angry.

Alan Griffin: We had to do it! Nothing else would have gotten us back in the
Lodge. Then the Black Tuesday crash happened.

Penny Wong: We look like sell outs because we did it.

Wayne Swan: I know that. What else do you expect? It’s Caroline Lucas all over again.

Mark Arbib: At least we have some warning about this. That woman smashed the door down.

Wayne Swan: Yes. You know as well as I do that there’s no way we’re not going to win the election but it’s going to cost us blood.

Mark Arbib: Plenty. The Right’s going to have a hissy fit and that’s not including what Gillard is going to have to do.

Wayne Swan: The problem is instability. She already gives off a mean look by having toppling Rudd.

Mark Arbib: Like you said we had no choice! The man was so condescending that we could barely get any legislation passed. Everything had to go through a find toothed comb with him.

Wayne Swan: Gillard’s better I admit but that doesn’t win seats. The public liked Rudd.

Mark Arbib: Yes but you know as well as I do that we alienated a lot of voters.

Penny Wong: How much is the blood telegraph from the Greens?

Alan Griffith: Not as much as we expected, for now. They’re simply waiting for the opportunity and see how much they can pound us.

Mark Arbib: We’re going to lose at least some of the inner Cities of this blasted country.

Wayne Swan: And do what? Take it back?

Penny Wong: No. But we need to come up with a plan. Worst case scenario.

Wayne Swan: That’s the Greens electing Bob Brown as Prime Minister.
(Penny Wong and Mark Arbib snort)

Alan Griffith: Don’t laugh. We both know it happened in United Kingdom. No one expected Lucas to gain power.

Wayne Swan: We’re going in circles now. If it wasn’t for the crash we could have stayed our course.

Mark Arbib: And now because of the fucking crash, we look like part of the establishment that is stomping on the underclass.

Alan Griffith: The Greens are expected with win eight seats at least.

Mark Arbib: We bloody know that number is going to be higher before the election even starts.

Penny Wong: Not with the press giving the Greens plenty of screen time on the black boxes.

Wayne Swan: The fucking liberals might win more seats than us though

(Everyone groaned at the absurdity of the idea and possible outcome.)
 

Sideways

Donor
I'm basically using your Timeline BrotherSideways. However in this case I'm simply showing the global side-effects, hence the reason why I've listed this as an alternate 1900 instead of Alien Space Bats. It is logically that left wing and Green parties would receive additional support after the United Kingdom election.

However there are a few fundamental differences for the United Kingdom in this timeline:

  • The Greens won 283 Seats instead of 329 seats like yours forcing them to go into a coalition with the Liberal democrats
  • The Liberal democrats won 178 seats in this timeline
  • Labor has only 71 Seats
  • The Conservatives merely have 81 seats
  • Alot more "Big Names" for the other parties survived the Green Massacre such as Nick Clegg, David Cameroon and Nick Griffith and etc
  • The Minor Parties gained the rest of the seats.
  • The Greens won with merely 25% of the Voter share, same with the Liberal Democrats
  • Election turnout was 86.8%

By the way. Would you mind making such a map for me? I really don't know if I have the time or the knowledge to make an appropriate map for the United Kingdom.

Awesome. I'd argue that without a early PoD we're still in ASB territory and that even with the best will in the world the Greens would have to be extremely lucky to win 3 seats in 2010. But I can work on that map for you (Slowly - I'm moving house).

Maybe the way to do this would be a Green-Lib Dem pact, going back to the Liberal-SDP merger or even having the Greens as a very junior partner in the Alliance then developing the edge on the Lib Dems after 1989. If the Greens avoid their messy split in 1992 maybe they can build up their position gradually we might just be able to have the kind of Earthquake we had in my TL with a bit less handwavium. Of course, this may mean that we'd now have Porritt, Parkin, and David Icke as Green MPs.
 
Why do you never use names of people you refer to in posts like these?
I would have thought people would have known who a notable Australian Journalist was that ran for the Senate in 2012.
230px-Julian_Assange_August_2014.jpg
 
I would have thought people would have known who a notable Australian Journalist was that ran for the Senate in 2012.

Nope. Didn't know he ran for Senate. Probably better if you start referring to people by their names.

But this TL is very interesting, and I look forward to more. The PoD has to be quite some way back I imagine, but it's an interesting idea about the rise of the New Left/Greens across the world threatening the traditional centre-left.
 

The Poarter

Banned
Chapter 2: Paper cut – Turnbull

Chapter 2: Paper cut – Turnbull

July 29th, 2010

It was just a weird result Abbott had said.

What happens in the home country has no effect on us Bishop had explained.
They’ve just taken a little bit of the vote they’ve taken explained Truss.
What a bunch of idiots. Can’t they see the writing on the wall? It had started as a paper cut of blood and was transforming to a gushing fountain of liquid red and green. Well they kicked him out of the leadership of the Liberal party in a spill. Funny how that worked. You vote for climate change and gay marriage despite them being popular choices and the emus in the party just decided to place their heads out of the sand.

At least he was safe from what the polls were saying. For the moment though he needed to get in touch with Josh Frydenberg, Old Bishop and Flecter about this. No matter how much that dinkum saw it there was no way they were going to win this election. It would be too difficult to do so. Labor was ahead of them by ten points in the two party preference polls.

However as stated by his wife, that was only because of the Greens. With any luck the push for the New Left would only be temporary and cause labor to collapse onto itself in three years.

In the meantime he would have to drag the party closer to the centre kicking and screaming if he had to.

With any luck that fool would simply self-destruct in the next few years or so and he would finally have his return to leadership.

However there were several issues that needed to be watched for. With this new shift to the left, Labor was likely to gain a group of seats he had not expected them to gain. It all depended on how well the Greens were going to do. Were they going to take 20 or more seats like he predicted or a simple 12 like the polls had said. Election day would simply answer that.
A list needed to be created. The loyalists, the survivors and the New Blood. The loyalists, people he could trust to support him in his bid as Prime Minister in 2013. The survivors of what was going to be the Green and Labor Breakthrough, that he could trust to be afraid of the far right.

And finally the new blood.

There was no way that the party could survive with the people from the Howard administration. Too right wing.

Strange how that worked.

Apparently though, his base really liked him. Still a lot of young supporters would need to be brought into fold, if they wanted a chance to gain seats come the next election. Especially ethnic minorities.
Personally he saw it as a necessity. That’s if the party saw it as such. Doing a Cameron was possible but it must be done strategically and intelligently.

Failure to do so could cause everyone to lose their seats.

The good news however was that if Labor did move into new seats, they would undoubtly before forced to make concessions and turn right. Now he could see it. With the Greens coming from the left and his new cabinet from the right, this could easily spell the death of the Labor party.

If he did this right.

This election was lost. Now was the time to prepare for the next one.
 

The Poarter

Banned
Chapter 3: Points of Authority

Chapter 3: Points of Authority

DAVID SPEERS: Good evening and welcome to the National Press Club in Canberra for 2010 Election Leaders Debate. In the growing amount of support for the Green Party which has recently topped to 18% of the Popular vote this debate will include the Leader of the Green Party. As a result please make welcome the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard in the centre, Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott at the right and the Leader of the Greens Bob Brown.

My name is David Speers, I’m the Political Editor of Sky News Australia and tonight we have three of the country’s best journalists on our panel. To pose questions to the Leaders please welcome Chris Uhlmann from the ABC, Laura Tingle from the Australian Financial Review and Malcolm Farr from the Daily Telegraph.
Well, all of us have to vote on August 21 and tonight we want to help you decide who should be leading Australia. All three parties have agreed on a set of rules governing tonight’s debate but we want this to be a real debate as well, where we can hear what both of you stand for and the direction you’d like to take Australia in. Because of the number of people who are part of this debate, the order was selected by a die.
Mr. Brown you have won the appropriate number and are given initiative which you have decided to choose the madam Prime Minister as the first speaker of this evening.

JULIA GILLARD: Thank you very much David. Thank you Tony. Thank you Bob. In 27 days’ time Australia will make a choice. I believe it’s a choice between Australia moving forward or going back and I know you’ve heard me say those words before so tonight I’m just going to take a few minutes of your time to explain what I mean by those words.

I think Australia is a great country. The best country on earth, but it can be a better country and that’s what I mean by moving forward. All of that starts with a strong economy, with a prosperous Australia and that’s why when the global financial crisis threatened this country we did what we needed to do to protect Australian jobs. Now that was the better economic plan and for the future we have the better economic plan. A plan to bring the Budget back to surplus in 2013, three years earlier than scheduled and before any other major advanced economy in the world.

… An economic plan where we’ve given the mining industry certainty and we will increase company tax because that will make a big difference for income equality in the future …

A better economic plan where we can increase superannuation for more than eight million hard working Australians. A plan to support small business and a plan to build the National Broadband Network because that is so important to the jobs of the future and how we will live in the future and with a strong economy then we can provide the services that families need – great schools, decent health care. I’m absolutely passionate about making sure every Australian child, every child, gets a first class education …

… I also believe it takes us forward if we have a sustainable Australia, not a big Australia and that’s why, that’s why I want to make record investments in solar and renewable technologies. I am also open to the discussion of nuclear energy talks …

… If you want to lead this nation, you’ve got to have your eyes on the road ahead, not in the rear vision mirror. That’s what I stand for.

SPEERS: Prime Minister, thank you. Mr Abbott, your opening statement.

TONY ABBOTT: Thanks David and thanks Julia. This election is about a fair go for families struggling with cost of living pressures. It’s about a government that you can rely on to deliver. It’s about respect for democratic process ..
My wife Margie and I know what it’s like to raise a family, to wrestle with a big mortgage, with grocery bills, with school fees but I can deliver for Australian families because I have been a senior Minister in an effective Government …

… Above all, you’ll get a better run economy and a strong economy is the foundation, the necessary foundation for a fair go for families, carers, seniors, farmers, veterans and small business people. I admit the energy levels we have are not appropriate for our growing society. It is why I maintain my support for Nuclear energy and our other traditional sources of power. Right now our future is at risk for a Government which is running like a headless chicken and unable to come up with an appropriate policy…

… There’s the boat people fix that got lost somewhere in the Timor Sea and there’s the climate fix which is just another talk fest. It’s not give enough, it’s not good enough and it will just get worse while either, The Greens or the Government, to think it can spin its way out of trouble …

… You’ll get community run hospitals with more beds and you’ll get schools run by parents, not bureaucrats. So I ask for your support to end the waste, to pay back the debt, to stop the tax and to stop the boats because that’s what the people of Australia have a right to expect from Government. They don’t deserve to live with the burdens of a government without an effective policy. This is Australia. We deserve better.

SPEERS: And finally we go to our third speaker of the evening, Mr. Bob Brown.

BOB BROWN: Thank you Mr. Speers for inviting me to this debate. This election will likely be historical for all of Australia. I would like to thank the Australian people for supporting my government and helping us lead in the polls throughout the country. I want to validate the sudden trust the Australian people have started to show in me and my party. To paraphrase Marshall McLuhan ‘there are no passengers on Spaceship Earth. We are All crew’ …

… I believe whole hearting in this message and I want to show that we, the Greens would gladly be the captains of this boat. As a leader of the Australian people I would gladly love to install legislation that will provide a nation-wide dental plan for all Australians. I want to appoint a dedicated Minister of Mental Health who will help Australians who are struggling with issues that are invisible to society but effect many of us profoundly.

… People in this country once again need to come together so that we can all have opportunities that our parents and grandparents once had. Parents, of either gender, who deserve to take leave for their children. Affordable living in a prosperous society but I don’t want it to come at the cost of a future for our children and grandchildren. These are a few of the many things the Greens support …

… Climate change is a massive issue across the globe that effects all of us. With the support of the Australian people, we the Greens, can start taking decisive steps to promote regulation and improve Australian into a clean, flourishing and thriving society …

… Renewable energy is a must for an enlarging society providing not just jobs and energy security but a continuous appreciation of the World around us ..
 

The Poarter

Banned
Can't believe you've missed out Australia's most successful* Green Party politician!

220px-Russel_Norman2.jpg


;)

Don't know him.

@Brother Sideways

The Speeches will change overtime. I'm just getting the gist of it.

Also I want to ask everyone who is reading this timeline to submit several questions to one of the three participants of this debate. Just to show that you guys, you know, care about this timeline.
 
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