The Canadian Annexation Thread (T.C.A.T.)

Another one of my favorite AH cliches (or is it a trope?)

CANADA MUST PERISH!
*Disclaimer: Canada must not actually perish

This is somewhat of a broad topic, so we may bleed a bit into post-1900 territory here.
  1. If there is no War of 1812 (and no American invasion), do you think that any of the British North American colonies could/would have eventually joined the Union?
  2. Could Quebec ever successfully be a U.S. state?
  3. Could the U.S. have ended up with British Columbia, and if so, what would happen to the East?
  4. Under what conditions (if any) would Newfoundland have seriously considered U.S. statehood?
  5. When do you believe is the latest that an American invasion of Canada (and/or war against the U.K.) is a remotely plausible scenario?
  6. What level of civil resistance are we going to see if the U.K. "abandons" Canada to U.S. annexation/occupation?
  7. What sort of regional identity would an American Canada have? (Dixie 2: The Great White Boogaloo?)
  8. What would a rump/puppet Canada look like if the U.S. decided not to outright annex it?
I do realize that answers to some of these questions would vary greatly depending on when the events took place.
That said, I wanted to keep it somewhat broad to discuss a wider variety of possible scenarios.
 
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I could see Quebec being split into two or three States,the extra Senators would give them more representation ,that would help ease things a bit.
State names
1) Quebec (of course)
2) Montreal
3) St Lawrence
 
This idea has been kicking around in my head for a while. British Maritimes and eastern Hudson Bay, independent Quebec, and American everything else. Is this plausible at any time?
 
Bro why you hate Canada?

Canada+in+one+picture+stumbled+across+it+thought+you+may_371525_4908298.jpg


No but seriously, just have a Quebec, America's manifest destiny to the Arctic Sea and make it so Britain never lets go of the remaining areas.
 
-54' 40" becomes US line of control on Pacific coast in 1848 *except* for Vancouver Island
-Hudson's Bay Company decides it can not do as well without negotiating treaty for use of Snake and Columbia Rivers and trades for 'future land rights or something equally vague
-Rare opportunity for North and South to agree on expansionist terms, eventually all land west of Thunder Bay bought out or taken by US
-Quebec seceded in 1971
-Atlantic provinces join US by 1980, Ontario does so at stroke of midnight 2000
 
You know, call me crazy, but I abhor the idea of the USA having Quebec (in the least) and NOT having Nova Scotia. Basically, the map sucks. It is somehow less displeasing than Newfoundland remaining British (or independent). Now, the question is, in this the *USA invades Canada scenario, does it has the incentive to grab Nova Scotia and the other Maritime Provinces in the northeast, or will it be content with taking just Quebec?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
-54' 40" becomes US line of control on Pacific coast in 1848 *except* for Vancouver Island
Do the British fight over it?

When do you believe is the latest that an American invasion of Canada (and/or war against the U.K.) is a remotely plausible scenario?
The later you go the more possible it is in military terms, with IIRC the US staff considering that it only became really achievable without serious problems post-WW1 or so.
 
This is somewhat of a broad topic, so we may bleed a bit into post-1900 territory here.
  1. If there is no War of 1812 (and no American invasion), do you think that any of the British North American colonies could/would have eventually joined the Union?
  2. Could Quebec ever successfully be a U.S. state?
  3. Could the U.S. have ended up with British Columbia, and if so, what would happen to the East?
  4. Under what conditions (if any) would Newfoundland have seriously considered U.S. statehood?
  5. When do you believe is the latest that an American invasion of Canada (and/or war against the U.K.) is a remotely plausible scenario?
  6. What level of civil resistance are we going to see if the U.K. "abandons" Canada to U.S. annexation/occupation?
  7. What sort of regional identity would an American Canada have? (Dixie 2: The Great White Boogaloo?)
  8. What would a rump/puppet Canada look like if the U.S. decided not to outright annex it?
I do realize that answers to some of these questions would vary greatly depending on when the events took place.
That said, I wanted to keep it somewhat broad to discuss a wider variety of possible scenarios.

1) Debatable - even post-1812, there were still some annexation movements. The idea of a separate identity for British North Americans would be much weaker though, as would the push west, and the British thinking they'd need to prop up BNA against the USA. The latter part is especially important - the more time given, the less of a chance they would have to do so, especially outside of Upper and Lower Canada.

2) Absolutely, perhaps much more successfully than it has been as a Canadian province. The US Federal system work would just fine at allowing Quebec to maintain several of its peculiarities - we even have a similar road map with Louisiana. I do however, think that Quebec would be broken into smaller states though - which given it gives Quebec a bigger voice in the Senate, might actually play out well with the Quebeci people.

3) Absolutely, and there are at least a dozen ways to do it, with PODs ranging from the Astor expeditions in the 1810s to settlement of claims between the USA and UK post-American Civil War. Impact on the USA would be small, but noticeable - we get probably two or three states out of it, and Alaska would be connected to the US mainland. The latter part may also come into play during negotiations over the border with the Yukon over the OTL Alaska panhandle - with the US in possession of OTL British Columbia, they may be able to push for even more land than OTL to allow a better land connection with the rest of the USA. If the USA plays its cards right, we could see the border drawn along the Yukon River watershed or extended along the Continental Divide.

The impact on Canada though would be profound - you can't have Canada as we know it without a Pacific coastline, and the reduced Canada would be much more centered on Ontario and the St. Lawrence valley. Which could have some interesting impacts on Western Canada, which even in OTL felt that Ontario ignored them. Without the need to link up with British Columbia and the Pacific, that would be greater than OTL, possibly resulting in the Prairie provinces either forming a separate Dominion or seeking to join the US.

If the USA takes everything west of the Continental Divide, the usual thing done here is one of two things, both fairly plausible - we get a weaker Canada with some greater regional tensions, or Britain might decide to forgo creating one Dominion, opting instead to create several. Rather than Canada, we could see a Dominion of Quebec, a Dominion of Ontario, and a Dominion of the Maritimes, and Newfoundland and the Prairies with rolled into one of them, sold to the USA, or in the case of Newfoundland, maybe even integrated into the UK itself.

4) This frankly depends on a number of factors - the big one being the time period. Just have the Brits and/or Canadians offer Newfoundland a raw deal, and the US offer a better one, and you have it.

5) 1890s, barring the very unlikely idea of the USA fighting for the Central Powers. The USA and Britain very nearly came to blows over British claims in Venezuela during the 1890s. Like most possible wars between the USA and Britian between 1848 and 1900, the later the war is, the better the USA will do, but by and large, the USA will overrun Canada with little issue, while the Royal Navy will harass the coast and prevent the US from getting ideas outside of North America. Only question is how much of Canada the US will take at the peace tables.

6) There isn't much Canada can do against the US should Britain abandon them to their fate - there is a reason why every defense plan for Canada pretty much consists of "hold as best as we can until the British can come and save our bacon".

The USA had the industry, the military, the resources, and most importantly, the population to completely subsume Canada. What resistance there is while be both fleeting and futile.

7) Depends on the part of Canada, especially since some regions of Canada might be less inherently "Canadian" than others. Other parts of Canada might group off culturally with similar parts of the USA - Columbia would fit right in alongside Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest, while the Prairies might end up the northern reach of the Midwest or Plains states. The Maritimes have ties to New England that date back to colonial times, and they would enjoy a friendly rivalry with Massachusetts over which batch of plastic paddies can out Irish the Irish.

Everything west of Manitoba has the added benefit that it could probably be flooded with American settlers and immigrants.

That leaves Quebec and Ontario - Quebec has its own regional identity, which as pointed out before, would probably exist as a US State without much protest.

Which leaves Ontario, the Canadian heartland. Best case scenario, it could be a quirky regional identity like Texas. Worst case scenario, the Maple Leaf flag becomes the frostier cousin of Stars and Bars. If the latter, Northern Ontario probably gets split off, settled and integrated.

8) The US would absolutely take everything west of the Continental Divide, and as much of the Prairie provinces as it could. Anything that doesn't join the US will be broken into smaller, more easily influenced republics.

It would also try to see if it could get the Maritimes to join the US, and if not, spin it off as a separate republic. Relations are probably very warm with the USA, and the nation is known abroad for its fishing fleets, its merchant marine, and its distinctive dialect of Gaelic.

Which once again, leaves us Quebec and Ontario. If the Maritimes joined the US, a similar offer may be made to Quebec, otherwise, they'll be spun off as their own Republic. Very cordial relations with the USA if it goes independent, with whom it enjoys a brisk trade in everything from lumber to hydro power, proudly francophone, and it probably follows France's lead as much as it follows the USA's. Other national pastimes include poutine, and taunting the rump Canadians across the border.

Which again, leaves us with Ontario, depending on where between the Rocky Mountains and Lake Huron the final border with the USA is eventually drawn. Even if its just Southern Ontario, rump Canada is somewhat viable as an independent nation - to this day, its where 40% of Canada lives. Needless to say, the farther west that eventual the US border is, the more independent minded and self-reliant this rump Canada will be, but even in the best case scenario for rump Canada, the USA will loom over it like a colossus. If OTL Canada is touchy about its distinctiveness from the United States, you can bet your bottom dollar that this rump Canada will be even more so. Which could manifest itself in some interesting ways over the years. I doubt it will grow to bitterness, at least not to the point of hostility - with the USA on at least two sides of rump Canada, and friendly pro-American republics on the other side of it, when the chips are down, rump Canada jumps when the USA says "frog".
 
The Canadians were extremely picky about which American immigrants were allowed to settle there prior to the War of 1812. If you wanted to farm and generally kept your head down they'd love to have you... but if you wanted to start a newspaper and complain about the elites you got sent home. There were plenty of Brits who got told to leave too, the Canadians loved their establishment. I have a very hard time believing that America ever gets a hold of it without some sort of conflict.

But without the war to galvanize the establishment, Canada probably liberalizes more quickly and the population isn't as restless so there's an even smaller likelihood of war than OTL.
 
Really I too just think the Maritimes should go American like @Rdffigueira says for map and cultural (New England-y) purposes, but I also sometimes think Alaska should become Canadian as well by the same reasoning.
 
Another one of my favorite AH cliches (or is it a trope?)

CANADA MUST PERISH!
*Disclaimer: Canada must not actually perish

This is somewhat of a broad topic, so we may bleed a bit into post-1900 territory here.
  1. If there is no War of 1812 (and no American invasion), do you think that any of the British North American colonies could/would have eventually joined the Union?
  2. Could Quebec ever successfully be a U.S. state?
  3. Could the U.S. have ended up with British Columbia, and if so, what would happen to the East?
  4. Under what conditions (if any) would Newfoundland have seriously considered U.S. statehood?
  5. When do you believe is the latest that an American invasion of Canada (and/or war against the U.K.) is a remotely plausible scenario?
  6. What level of civil resistance are we going to see if the U.K. "abandons" Canada to U.S. annexation/occupation?
  7. What sort of regional identity would an American Canada have? (Dixie 2: The Great White Boogaloo?)
  8. What would a rump/puppet Canada look like if the U.S. decided not to outright annex it?
I do realize that answers to some of these questions would vary greatly depending on when the events took place.
That said, I wanted to keep it somewhat broad to discuss a wider variety of possible scenarios.

One of my least favourite trope for the number of time its throwed around without due ressearch and-or knowledge and as a cheap way to wank the U.S at our expense :p You, however, seem to be wanting to honestly investigate its plausibility and interested in hearing answers so I'll give it a go :)

1. Up until the late 19th-early 20th (by witch point Canada was already there and was bound to stay short of an invasion and conquest) the British North Americans colonies (except Quebec, witch I would deal in more details further down) where colonised with former loyalists and immigrants from Great-Britain who latched to the culture they created. Said culture put emphasis with the link with the modern land and sought to differenciate Canada as much as possible from the US. The only way I can see it happen would be for the British to be repressive to the point of stupidity against any attempt at autonomy by canadians from the 1830's onward and the U.S somehow liberating them. Even in such a situation it is more likely that Canadians would have wanted independance after that.
2. Even more difficult, if you keep it as anything recognisable from OTL: Quebec until the 1960's had a very anti-modernist outlook in very large segment of its society (witch showed in how calls from american to rally them where pretty much completely unnefective and they fought with the brits during the invasions of 1775 and 1813), with the americans seen as the anglo-protestant, modernist Moloch that threatened to destroy their nice catholic agrarian supposed utopia. After the 1960's America would have had essentially the same issues then Canada had with Quebec, except even greater since Canada is in practice far more decentralised then america in the last decades and Quebec far of assmilation would be far higher with a far lower % of francophones in the country.
3. That would take a quick conquest of British North America, either during the revolution or the war of 1812, since I don't see the brits being weak enough to consent to that after the Napoleonic wars. In that case you would likely have waves of immigrations in the east who utterly americanise the place.
4. Their was actually some newfies who wanted the place to join the US after WWII, the issue here is that it was the brits who controlled witch options would be in the ballot on the upcoming referendum and didn't want the prestige blow that would have come with Newfoundland joining the US. For that too change you would have to get the U.S to offer them something substantial in exchange for the option to be put on the ballot (why would they do that is another matter). Even then, it would be an uphill battle but its probably you're best shot.
5. Likely the post-civil war moment of tensions between the americans and the brits due to the latter ambivalent attitude during the war.
6, 7 and 8. For all the properly ridiculous things you can read in the TL-191 series that's one thing Turtledove got somewhat right. That the americans would be unpopular in Canada would be a very large euphemism and its not gonna be a fun place for people to garrisons duties to be for a long time. The latter you have the conquest happen the worst. It is likely the US would need to flood the place with immigrants to turn it into the equivalent of the Northeast and the Midwest to really make it stick.

All in all, the only likely scenario for an american Canada would be good old naked imperialism, and Canada happen to be guarded by the world foremost superpower for most of the period when that would be possible so it is far from guaranteed to work.

Really I too just think the Maritimes should go American like @Rdffigueira says for map and cultural (New England-y) purposes, but I also sometimes think Alaska should become Canadian as well by the same reasoning.

I happen to believe in self-determination and you won't find 0,1% of the population of the Maritimes to support that (coming from someone who grew up there) and I suspect Alaska won't have more appetite to join Canada either.
 
I happen to believe in self-determination and you won't find 0,1% of the population of the Maritimes to support that (coming from someone who grew up there) and I suspect Alaska won't have more appetite to join Canada either.

God forbid, I happen to believe in the same thing too!
 
Interestingly, I don't see annexation changing much for Canadians (and I say that as a Canadian). I think the effects on the United States is going to be far more profound. Ontario and Quebec are both going to be declaring 'distinct society' and while I think eventually both would settle into being states, they're likely to become as liberal as the current Northeast.

British Columbia has far more in common with the American West coast than the rest of Canada already so that will likely be the same. Which means that the US will have a far less conservative makeup than in the OTL. The 'fly over' states think they have something to complain about now, imagine an influx of democratic electoral votes in 2000. Or 2004. Or last year.
 
If there is no War of 1812 (and no American invasion), do you think that any of the British North American colonies could/would have eventually joined the Union?

No. Even among the descendants of American Patriots that later settled in British North America, there seems to have been strong pro-British sentiments. For instance, the Canadian hero Laura Secord, who informed the British about an American attack in Ontario, was the descendant of a Patriot.

And the Rebellion of 1837 failed in no small part because William Lyon MacKenzie made no secret about how he wanted Canada to become American. This brought radicals against him, because even they didn't want to be Americans.

Could Quebec ever successfully be a U.S. state?

No. Its "Popist" population is too large, much larger than even Louisiana, and by this point, you're seeing shit like the Know-Nothings emerge. The US should try to carve out the Eastern Townships, which were majority-Anglophone at this point, but not much more was possible.

Could the U.S. have ended up with British Columbia, and if so, what would happen to the East?

It's possible, but you need a quite early POD for it. And if war happens over the Oregon dispute, the US will be smashed, and it'll be smashed hard.

Under what conditions (if any) would Newfoundland have seriously considered U.S. statehood?

If the rest of the Maritimes were American. That's it, basically.

When do you believe is the latest that an American invasion of Canada (and/or war against the U.K.) is a remotely plausible scenario?

About the time of the American Civil War, but even then, I don't see why the US would want to conquer British North America while they're still engaged in colonizing the West.

What level of civil resistance are we going to see if the U.K. "abandons" Canada to U.S. annexation/occupation?

A lot of resistance. It must be understood that much of the Canadian identity comes from not being American, and this event would result in nationalism in British North America, caused from being "not American".

But after a generation or two, this resistance will break down, and Canada will just be another part of the US.

What would a rump/puppet Canada look like if the U.S. decided not to outright annex it?

This would be the best scenario. I can't imagine it would look too different from OTL Canada, actually.

The best scenario for American annexation is for revolution to break out in Britain over reform (seriously, it came pretty damn close with the Days of May), and then as the colonies are unsure whether to ally themselves to the new republic or to the monarch that has presumably fled. With no defences or reinforcements coming, America can conquer British North America with ease.
 

Lusitania

Donor
You should be tar feathered for even suggesting such grotesque idea. :mad:

If there was no war of 1812 it is debatable weather British colonies would of joined. There are still many different political and economic issues that can drive the two apart and even into war.
 
If there was no war of 1812 it is debatable weather British colonies would of joined. There are still many different political and economic issues that can drive the two apart and even into war.

I doubt it. Sure, relations would be bad at times between the two. But with no impressment issue post-1815, anti-British sentiment wouldn't get to war.
 
Interestingly, I don't see annexation changing much for Canadians (and I say that as a Canadian). I think the effects on the United States is going to be far more profound. Ontario and Quebec are both going to be declaring 'distinct society' and while I think eventually both would settle into being states, they're likely to become as liberal as the current Northeast.

British Columbia has far more in common with the American West coast than the rest of Canada already so that will likely be the same. Which means that the US will have a far less conservative makeup than in the OTL. The 'fly over' states think they have something to complain about now, imagine an influx of democratic electoral votes in 2000. Or 2004. Or last year.

Think of the butterflies . . .
 
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