The Campaign Trail Game Has Returned.

This was a fun one.

I ran in 2012 as Obama, replaced Biden with Hillary Clinton, and gave the most neo-liberal (or right wing) answers on economics that I thought I could get away with. I didn't call for abolishing social security, but ran on a pro-immigration, pro-free trade, pro-tax cuts for the wealthy platform. Sort of running Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign (without the influence/ intervention of Sanders) four years earlier.

The result? He just pulled it through. A 0.1% popular vote win and a 32 vote electoral college win. Romney was just unpopular enough for this to work:

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/400233

I've tried a few times to get Woodrow Wilson re-elected on a pro-war platform but that seems to be impossible, at least on Normal which is the setting I always play under.
 
The 2016 scenario is completely determined by random events. Just played on Trump, got two terrorist attacks, won the debates, and Sanders wouldn't endorse Clinton, and got something of a Trumslide, my best Trump result ever:

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/400603

I had just played as Clinton, also as normal, and won comfortably. One terrorist attack and the debates were a wash.

But the interesting thing about the pro-Trump result is that this was close to the best possible Trump scenario (the best one would have a third terrorist and the email indictment), with a Trump popular vote victory by a 2.1% margin, and which states does Trump win? Pretty much the same states he won IOTL. The only IOTL Clinton state he carried in this situation was New Hampshire. I just think its funny that you pretty much need almost everything to break in Trump's favor to get his IOTL states.
 
The 2016 scenario is completely determined by random events. Just played on Trump, got two terrorist attacks, won the debates, and Sanders wouldn't endorse Clinton, and got something of a Trumslide, my best Trump result ever:

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/400603

I had just played as Clinton, also as normal, and won comfortably. One terrorist attack and the debates were a wash.

But the interesting thing about the pro-Trump result is that this was close to the best possible Trump scenario (the best one would have a third terrorist and the email indictment), with a Trump popular vote victory by a 2.1% margin, and which states does Trump win? Pretty much the same states he won IOTL. The only IOTL Clinton state he carried in this situation was New Hampshire. I just think its funny that you pretty much need almost everything to break in Trump's favor to get his IOTL states.
And Virginia
 
And here is one where Dukakis runs as Bill Clinton.

Its pretty easy to do better than IOTL than Dukakis, just run a competent campaign. You can still lose, but you will always either win or at least come close. For this reason the 1988 scenario wasn't exactly the most interesting election they could have done.

So I ran Dukakis -Bentsen, called for free trade, capital punishment, and tax cuts, emphasized pragmatism (and the IOTL Dukakis didn't also emphasized pragmatism and was pro-free trade), and attacked Bush, though apparently I flubbed the debates. This resulted in a narrow win, in both the electoral and popular vote:

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/401478

I've tried running Clintonite, neo-liberal campaigns as the Democrat in 1988, 2000, 2012, and 2016 now. The 2016 scenario is so random that its not a good test, plus given her record I don't think its possible for Hillary Clinton to run as anything other than a neo-liberal (she did win in that iteration). The 1988 and 2012 attempts saw narrow Democratic victories, the 2000 attempt saw a slightly less narrow Democratic defeat. There is a big random element in this system so I don't think this says much. In the case of 1988 I checked the aggregate results so far and what I got comes very close to the median.
 
2004 too. 1884 or 1888 maybe too. 1912 was a landslide for Wilson so as long as the parties are split his victory is virtually inevitable. 1940 or 1944 maybe. 1980's polling was close until the end, though that may just be a polling error, probably a combination of undecideds going to Reagan at the end and a polling error. 2008 maybe. 1848 maybe, or 1856.
 
They should redo their current set first, and it would be nice in some instances where there would be an option to run the runner-up for the nomination instead of the historical nominee.

"Elections I'd like on here, in order of preference: 1912, 1992, 1980, 1876"

I tried doing write ups on each election, assessing their suitability for the Campaign Trail treatment, this summer, and got stalled with the 1876 election. I hope to resume them, but there is a big problem with the four elections between 1864 and 1876, with them becoming most acute in 1876.

The big problem is that the Republicans were simply not going to let the Democrats win any of them, and absent an unlikely Democratic breakthrough in the northern states (the Democrats in fact made it close in 1868 and 1876 by winning New York), could use their control of the reconstruction governments in the South to prevent this. Even in 1864, they were prepared to seat Republican electors from Louisiana and Tennessee if needed, though they turned out not to be needed. There were suspiciously large Lincoln majorities in that election in some of the border states that were effectively under military control.

Another thing the Republicans could and did do was to create instant states out of low population Western territories, which they did throughout the nineteenth century. Examples were Nevada in 1864 and Colorado in 1876, and in Colorado the electors were not even elected that year -Tilden won a majority of the electors chosen, however notionally, by the voters. The point is that they could always see how things were going in the North, some states voted as early as September, then bring in as many new Western states or tighten things up in the South as much as needed.

The crooked 1876 agreement ended this at least as far as the Reconstruction governments were concerned, in return for conceding the White House for another four years to the Republicans. So 1880 was the first election in decades that either party could win, and it turned out to be close. This election would be good for the scenario.

For the 1864-1876 elections the best you can do as the Democrats would be to run well enough that the cheating would just get out of control, forcing the 1876 deal. And despite the historical myth to the contrary, 1864 was a non-starter as soon as the Copperhead plank was adopted.

For the others, what is attractive about 1912 and 1992, the strong third party runs, also makes them really complicated. I don't think the system does third party candidates well when the candidates control them and they shouldn't try. For 1912, I think Roosevelt should be treated as the alternative to Wilson and Taft as the third party candidate. For 1992, I don't know how you create a system to model Perot's erratic behavior, and I don't think any player would willingly do it.

My list would be 1828, 1880, 1940, and 2004, the latter because it would complete the 21st century set.
 
I'm continuing to play around with this winter with some of the scenarios. Looking at 2012, not the most interesting election, but one I guess had to be done since it was the most recent, I tried running Romney as a sort of proto-Trump. I've tried this before and keep getting the same result. Romney lost by almost the elect margin he lost by historically, carrying the exact same states.

I then tried running Obama as a critic of the Obama administration, as much as I thought I could plausibly get away with (including firing Eric Holder). Obama somehow won anyway, though the national popular vote was almost tied -he had a 68,000 national vote margin and the percentages were both 49.5%, and the electoral vote margin was 32, with Obama losing Ohio and Florida but carrying all the other states that he carried. A flip of about 11,000 votes in New Hampshire (margin was 297 votes), Virginia, and Colorado gives the electoral college to Romney. All of this is on normal. There were lots of attacks on Romney so this was sort of a Truman '48 style campaign.
 
GHW Bush vs Dukakis in 1988, run after seeing Bush at the Superbowl, running as Bush as normal.

I avoided choosing Dan Quayle as my running make (going with Kemp), avoided the no new taxes pledged, and ran as a pragmatic conservative, mixing in plenty of attacks on Dukakis. Dukakis did somewhat better in the debates than IOTL, and this seems to have produced a closer result, a Bush win by 1.5% of the national popular vote and 18 electoral votes. Bush only won Michigan by 33,000 votes, and he needed Michigan, but nearly all the other close states went for Dukakis.

I'm posting the game link because the breakdown of the states is interesting and not what we are used to:

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/407146
 
And here is almost the exact same result from the above, again running the 1988 scenario as normal, but this time with a Dukakis-Gore ticket:

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/407981

My version of Dukakis ran on a platform of cutting income taxes and raising tariffs, with quite alot of personal attacks on Bush, sort of a proto-Trump.

And this produced a Dukakis national popular vote victory with a 0.6% margin, as opposed to the GHW Bush 1.5% margin from the previous outing.

With almost the exact same breakdown of states. Except that the Duke carried Michigan and lost South Dakota and Montana, an exchange the benefited him. Michigan went for Dukakis by about 48,000 votes this time, as opposed to the 33,000 vote Bush margin from the previous outing.

And Dukakis carried West Virginia by 221 votes. With an Electoral College margin of only 8, the only state he carried that he could have afforded to lose was Vermont.
 
Ran as Clay, running as anti-slavery a campaign as possible (though silent on the gag rule). I put Frelinghuysen on the ticket, but steadfastly denied any tendencies toward nativism, and supported expansion in Oregon but not Texas.

I've tried this in the past, but had worse luck and familiarity with the game, and gotten wiped out as Clay. This result was actually interesting:

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/408580

Polk wins the national popular vote pretty comfortably for a nineteenth century election. However Clay carries New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Usually just winning New York or Pennsylvania alone is enough for Clay. Polk wins by sweeping the slave states, except for Clay's native Kentucky, and winning a few Jacksonian/ frontiersy northern states.
 
Continuing just f------ around, ran Lincoln as the most radical abolitionist possible. This is very much like a self-sabotage of Lincoln, though not a true sef-sabotage, since he continued to campaign aggressively on the tariff, homestead act, and railroads. But ultra-radical Lincoln loses the nationwide popular vote anyway.

Actually the results managed to deliver a situation that was even more of a mess than the historical situation. I lost the link to the game, so here are the nationwide popular vote percentages and electoral vote totals:

Douglas 33.7% 78 EV
Lincoln 32.0% 82 EV
Breckinridge 21.7% 102 EV
Bell 12.5% 39 EV

Lincoln carried New England, Ohio (very narrowly) and the upper Midwest. Douglas won New York, New Jersey, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, and California, the best Douglas result possible. Bell narrowly carried Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee, with Breckinridge winning the rest of the slave states plus Pennsylvania and Oregon.

Congress can't pick Bell in this scenario because he is not one of the top three finishers. They probably pick Douglas, secession happens anyway, and then Douglas dies.

I just realized that Breckinridge has no path to victory. The only northern states he can hope to win are Pennsylvania, Oregon, and California, and they are just not enough even if he wins all the slave states (and he isn't winning Missouri). There is no chance of him being picked by the House of Representatives if Douglas or Bell are available, and one of the two will be in the top three. I'm really not sure that the southern Democrats were trying to accomplish with this.

I did run a most pro-slavery possible Douglas campaign, but the results were predictable, Douglas gets a percentage in the low twenties and doesn't carry any state.
 

Deleted member 83898

Broke the EV record in 1976 as Ford/Baker.

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/409545

That election can be really fickle and weird. I recall running a game where I gave the exact same answers, won the debate, and visited mostly the same states but lost by greater than historical margins. If you delve into the details of the linked game, you'll find that the ten closest states or something were won by me, all with <2% margins.

The biggest surprise (and record-breaking state) was Kentucky, because I didn't even visit that state in the campaign, whereas in previous runs I concentrated my campaign exclusively on KY ("aim ahead of the target" strat, which works to get to 347 EV on Romney '12) yet lost both the Bluegrass State and the election. Again, fickle.

I'm really aiming to get a victory where I can win MD and DE simultaneously. Currently it seems as if victory in one is mutually exclusive with victory in the other. Louisiana also appears to be winnable in the same vein as Kentucky; once I tied with Carter in LA in the polls but lost it by 3 points. If I can add LA to my current record that'd get me 440 EV, add in DE and you have a (probably) maxed out EV score of 443 EV.
 
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