The caged Lion of Lehistan

From the Britannica article on John III Sobieski:

But his advances into Moldavia, undertaken between 1684 and 1691, were mostly failures, and during the last one he was even in danger of being captured.

WI the Ottomans had captured him?
 
I think if he were captured in 1691 it would make little difference. If he were captured before or during 1683 it would probably make a very, very big difference.

Even in 1691 this could have effects on the war and the internal situation in Poland-Lithuania. Would the Ottomans decide to free him in exchange for peace on that front? If yes, would the offer be taken? If not, would the Sejm decide to elect another king? If yes, who could it be?

Hmm. So, in Turkish, the Mongols were Han Chinese?

The Mongols are Mongols. Nobody calls them "Khan Chinese".
 
yes but is it plausable that no other polish nobleman intervenes in the 1683 battle? i dont know much about polish history, but id say whoever is king would send help to Vienna at that point, unless they are too busy with somthing else they consider equally important

if Vienna does fall this would change a lot definitley, id guess Ottomans get most of what was left of Austrian territory in the south east Europe, that is Croatia, maybe even present day Slovenia
they expand even more into Hungary as well, whats left of it
but even without the territorial loss this would be a huge blow to Habsburg Austria
who would then take its place, would Poland rise? Prussia? other pretenders to the Habsburg throne?

Ottomans would again become a realy major power in Europe
 
Originally by Broz
yes but is it plausable that no other polish nobleman intervenes in the 1683 battle? i dont know much about polish history, but id say whoever is king would send help to Vienna at that point, unless they are too busy with somthing else they consider equally important
if Vienna does fall this would change a lot definitley, id guess Ottomans get most of what was left of Austrian territory in the south east Europe, that is Croatia, maybe even present day Slovenia
they expand even more into Hungary as well, whats left of it
but even without the territorial loss this would be a huge blow to Habsburg Austria
who would then take its place, would Poland rise? Prussia? other pretenders to the Habsburg throne?
Ottomans would again become a realy major power in Europe
Actually Polish refusal to help save Vienna is quite probable without Sobieski. There were two factions in Polish court: pro-Habsburg and pro-French (anti-Habsburg). Sobieski decided to help Austrians because he correctly believed that the Ottomans were common enemy of Poland and Austria and he prefered to fight them together with Austrian army on foreign soil, than meet them later, alone, with Polish land suffering from war. However, Polish relief of Vienna was a little risky - Sobieski left relatively small screening force to protect Poland with main army going to join Austrians and Germans. Some other king, not as good soldier as Sobieski was, might have decided that all available forces were needed to protect Poland.
In case of Austrian defeat, I think the Ottomans would have needed some time to "digest" their new territories and they wouldn't go farther. Also, the fall of Vienna would have probably mobilized all Europe against the islam, including Poland. Personally I don't think the Ottomans were capable of achieve much more. Of course for the Habsburgs it would have been a crushing blow. The ATL Holy League might have eventually pushed the Ottomans back, but the power of the Habsburgs would have been broken.
 
Yeah, I agree with seraphim74. The Ottomans were huge enough as it is, they coudn't be much bigger in nearly any TL. The fall of Vienna, and a general defeat for the Hapsburgs and the HRE would echo like a gunshot in Europe. Any Christian east of the rhine would definetly rally against the Turks, this time truly united rather than seperate. It is also important to remember that the Hapsburg power itself was a problem in the Ottoman-European wars, not an advantage. Since the Hapsburgs themselves had so many enemies, their position of power prevented many states to join-in on the Holy Leagues and coalitions against the Ottomans, should Hapsburg power decrease, this barrier would be eliminated.
All of this poses a fascinating case, however, as to the manner of which the anti-Ottoman jihad would occur. Would we see an organized Holy League, an actual Crusade? Perhaps a popular thing like thos back in the turn of the millenium, or just another battle between massive coalitions of nobles?
 
Ottomans definitley could not hold Vienna or austrian land, but they didnt want to do that, they simply vanted to deal with the Habsburgs, and concluded capturing Vienna and probbably burning it to te ground would be a big enough blow for Austria to be out of the picture in eastern Europe

i agree there would be some kind of expanded "Holy league" or "second Holy league" but it is not probbable these would go further than Budim, or they get stopped in the mountains of Bosna and Transilvania, and then pushed back again
so even if they lose all of nevly gained hungaryan land the Ottomans have still won a longterm wictory since they would have got rid of their main enemy and ended some 100 years of border wars

this new holy league would probbably see as its goal pushing the Ottomans back as far as they can, so once they percieve they have done this, or suffer the first defeats, they would start turning back and soon concentrate on who fills the new power vacuum
id guess France would atempt to dominate most of the ex-HRE, and there would be a new series of wars in midlle europe
after this olnly Poland would try and maintain a serious war against the turks, most others would just send some mercenary troops or pay to maintain local militia, with ex-habsburg lands becoming a kind of militarised buffer, similar to the Kraina in OTL Austro-Hungary

the Ottomans would most likely act to stabilise and secure their gains in the next few decades and then stop their advance into midle Europe, possibly concentrating on the rest of East europe, wich concerned olnly Russia

as long as Poland would continue to fight the Ottoman empire, most other European powers would consider it enough to send some simbolic help here and there and be busy with their own problems
later during the 18th century there could be some kid of reconquest, or if the Ottomans play their cards right, they could become a major player in European politics an make strong aliances

developments in the fields of military tehnology, tactics and doctrines that might be asimilated by closer contact with midle-european forces, but also exchange of cultural influnces, could cause big divergence from OTL
no doubt the reneval of conflict in disputed HRE territory would lead to new religious conflicts and religious/political prosecution, so a strong Ottoman empire might see a lot of refugee imigration, as it was tolerant thovards most religious practices and left people alone as long as they payed their taxes
this could help boost developing civil society in Ottoman urban centers such as Osjek or Sarajevo, or turkish Budimpest, wich were going trough a period of growth and development under Ottoman rule

also a big weight would be lifted from the Ottoman empire, as it would no longer have to deal with the Habsburgs, and would hold the areas of Croatia and Hungaria that caused it the most trouble in OTL
 
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I guess that's true - a peace treaty with Poland could have made a difference. If the Ottomans believe he's in a position to do this, I can't see why they wouldn't release him.

Even in 1691 this could have effects on the war and the internal situation in Poland-Lithuania. Would the Ottomans decide to free him in exchange for peace on that front? If yes, would the offer be taken? If not, would the Sejm decide to elect another king? If yes, who could it be?



The Mongols are Mongols. Nobody calls them "Khan Chinese".
 
This is not going to happen. The Ottomans couldn't have held Vienna, it's too far - they would have sacked the city and dismantled the Hapsburg administration and left. That huge a blow to the predominant power in Central Europe would have left everyone else too busy to bother with a crusade against the already-withering Ottomans.

In OTL the spectacular failure of the siege provided a unique opportunity to eject the Ottomans from Hungary; in the case of a successful siege of Vienna that opportunity is not there.

Yeah, I agree with seraphim74. The Ottomans were huge enough as it is, they coudn't be much bigger in nearly any TL. The fall of Vienna, and a general defeat for the Hapsburgs and the HRE would echo like a gunshot in Europe. Any Christian east of the rhine would definetly rally against the Turks, this time truly united rather than seperate. It is also important to remember that the Hapsburg power itself was a problem in the Ottoman-European wars, not an advantage. Since the Hapsburgs themselves had so many enemies, their position of power prevented many states to join-in on the Holy Leagues and coalitions against the Ottomans, should Hapsburg power decrease, this barrier would be eliminated.
All of this poses a fascinating case, however, as to the manner of which the anti-Ottoman jihad would occur. Would we see an organized Holy League, an actual Crusade? Perhaps a popular thing like thos back in the turn of the millenium, or just another battle between massive coalitions of nobles?
 
Could they hold him for ransom?

I came up with a "WI Vlad the Impaler Captured the Sultan" and some people said said that would have been the case.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/Discussion/showthread.php?t=32478&highlight=Vlad+Impaler

They could, but the benefits of peace with Poland would outweigh any potential ransom, which would be difficult to get from Poland to Istanbul anyway. Also, I'm not sure any substantial ransom would be forthcoming... Sobieski would have to depend upon his private resources.
 
i dont know much about the politics in midlle and west europe after the 30 years war, but it seams to me that Habsburgs being defeated and greatly veakened in this way, could cause a new wave of wars and conflicts in ex-HRE territoryes, and that the european powers would be too busy with each other to launch and maintain a truly sucesfull counter-ofensive

wouldnt France se this a s a great oportunity to increase its power in the region? and then theres Spain and Prussia, and Bavaria, and the catolic/protestant problem that is still alive
 

Susano

Banned
What is that about ex-HREs? Seven fo Eight Electros are unaffected by the whole thing, as is the Imperial Diet. Even if the Emoeror dies (he wont, he had already fled the city), simply a new one could be eelcted. The burning of Vienna wont end the HREGN.
 
This is not going to happen. The Ottomans couldn't have held Vienna, it's too far - they would have sacked the city and dismantled the Hapsburg administration and left. That huge a blow to the predominant power in Central Europe would have left everyone else too busy to bother with a crusade against the already-withering Ottomans.

In OTL the spectacular failure of the siege provided a unique opportunity to eject the Ottomans from Hungary; in the case of a successful siege of Vienna that opportunity is not there.

:eek:
OMG!!!
Did you just say the words "withering" and "Ottomans" in the same sentence?
Who are you, and what have you done to Abdul?!

Anyway,
An Ottoman capture of Vienna would "light the red bulb" for at-least any European ruler east of the rhine - as I stated before - regardless of its future consequences. If the Ottomans don't try to hold Austria, as you say, then there is no reason the Hapsburgs won't retake it and prevent their disintegration.
I remind you, that the French, just like the Ottomans, have their limits. And unless the Turks keep advancing north, they too will be stopped, sooner or later.
The 'already-withering'-ness of the Ottomans is what sparks my plausible crusade in the first place, since the Poles, Ruskies, and Germs would seek to gain as much as possible once they turn the tides - advancing to the Black Sea, for example.
 
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