The Butterfly Effect - Overused?

I don't think I'd necessarily call it overused, but it is frequently misunderstood. It's not, as others have said, just an excuse to hand-wave away changes. The technical term for it is "sensitive dependence on initial conditions," and its one of the three properties of chaotic systems. And like just about everything to do with chaos theory, it speaks to probabilities first and foremost.

Which means, in short, you can't just say that because historical figure A was born after a timeline's point of divergence that historical figure A cannot figure into said timeline. On the other hand, what you can do is speak to the probability of historical figure A existing, and the probability that s/he will share certain characteristics with his or her counterpart from OTL. Because of the nature of the phenomenon, it's damnably difficult, if not outright impossible, to be certain of anything. I mean, you can speak in very broad generalizations about the likelihood of major changes emerging, of course: particularly in pre-modern timelines, someone living in western North America is not likely to be as immediately affected by changes in, say, the Roman Republic as someone living in Greece. By the same token, someone born a day after the POD is unlikely to be as strongly affected by someone born fifty years after the POD. That's the basic premise: small changes in initial conditions compound over time in ways that are difficult to predict.

For me, it's an issue of degree. If a timeline incorporates one or two largely unchanged, post-POD elements, I can accept that. If it winds up with more similarities than differences, however, that suggests that the writer hasn't fully considered the implications of the divergence.
 
For me, I base the butterfly effect on several facts based on several factors: Where the POD occured, when it occured, the technological level of the period, and how much I'm willing to use authorial fiat.
 
For me, I base the butterfly effect on several facts based on several factors: Where the POD occured, when it occured, the technological level of the period, and how much I'm willing to use authorial fiat.
Exactly How Much to use Authorial Fiat, is Most of What's Holding up My 9/11 Time-Line ...

I Want to Make it a COMPLETE Butterfly, With a POD Seemingly Entirely Disconnected from The Eventual Result ...

But, I Also don't Want it to Become a Simple Ameriwank, Either, ya' Know?

:confused:
 
I think the analogy about it being something which affects a local weather system. but not the global system is about right, but dependent on the event obviously. For example, the assasination of Hitler in 1939 would have an effect world history, while the murder of say, the PM of New Zealand in 1953, would affect the history of NZ and the region, but not so much the rest of the world.

Here is my own personal butterfly effect though, which may add some food for thought.

I returned to South Africa from London in October 2006. The first Friday I was back, I went out to a pub with two friends. One of my friends started chatting to a girl, I butted into the conversation, and I ended up going out with this girl for a few months. As we got to know each other's friends, a friend of her's and a friend of mine hit it off. They started seeing each other, and now they are expecting a baby.

So, if I hadn't come back from London when I did, if we had gone to a different pub that night, if my friend had started talking to this girl, a human being would not be on the brink of being born. And who knows what effect this person will have on the future?
 
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